BUILT 12:47 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 1-3
33
33.3%
57.6%
42.4%
60.6%
miles (7-9f)
49
22.4%
49%
22.4%
42.9%
non-handicaps
65
35.4%
55.4%
35.4%
63.1%
mid fields (8-11)
69
21.7%
46.4%
20.3%
46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
PINA SONATA is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (60% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (67% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 6th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, TOULEEN leads on 109, 5pts clear of KON TIKI and SUKANYA (both 104) — proven on the ground. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is KON TIKI — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes TOULEEN the 42% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
TOULEEN
OR · William Buick / Owen Burrows
MARKET 2.36 · the market rates it a 42% chance
109.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−The top rating in this field (109.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
KON TIKI
OR · Ryan Moore / Jane Chapple-Hyam
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
104.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #2 in this field (104.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
SUKANYA
OR · Tom Marquand / Jack Channon
MARKET 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance
104.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #3 in this field (104.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1KON TIKInet +10figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
2TOULEENnet +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup
3SUKANYAnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), proven at trip, proven on the going, yard hot, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. KON TIKI is the one to beat it — an edge TOULEEN lacks: one of the two strongest finishers here.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by hold-up closers 40% · midfield runners 25% (48 past C&D winners · won from off the pace). Stiff, testing uphill finish. Winners’ energy signature: 49.01% spent early (band 47.91–49.8%, 71 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~6 at halfway, 0.5s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
15 similar races at ASCOT, 7.5-8.5f, all-aged non-handicaps, Class 1, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (60% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (67% from the first three favourites). 33% won last time out, 27% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
67% 4yo
27% 5yo
7% 3yo
Last ran
47% 15-45d
27% 46-90d
13% first run
Market
33% 4th+ in the market
33% 2nd favourite
20% favourite
LTO form
33% won last time
27% placed last time
27% unplaced last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–8).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: TOULEEN is 1/1 on softer ground · KON TIKI is 1/1 on softer ground · SUKANYA is 1/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ARISAIGHELD-UP49.4%102.4the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CHESHIRE DANCER (IRE)HELD-UP51.5%96.0held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
KON TIKIMID48.0%105.9the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
PINA SONATAPROMINENT49.8%99.9the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
SUKANYAMID50.1%99.5one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ESNA (IRE)MID49.2%103.2a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SKYDANCE———-
TOULEENMID49.7%101.9solid late gains (4th of 7 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
PINA SONATAPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
PINA SONATA is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1TOULEENMID
DRAW 7 · OR · William Buick / Owen Burrows
MARKET 2.36 · the market rates it a 42% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
109.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 5pts clear of the next, proven on the ground; solid late gains (4th of 7 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
109.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 109
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.31)
Days since last run
36
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.86% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Owen Burrows · 323 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Callum Rodriguez, in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦24/10722.4%1.498/3622.2%1.48
In fields of 8-1120/12416.1%0.996/3318.2%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Ascot5/2718.5%1.480/100.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days27/13020.8%1.23/319.7%0.54
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 109 at/around today's trip, clears the ~105.0 demand
The rider
William Buick · last 14 days: 10/24· at Ascot: A/E 0.74 (n199)· with this yard: A/E 0.45 (n20)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.46 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
101.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Ascot7f213yGd/Frm12nd——True39.4 +0.00100.8—
3 May 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm16th——True40.5 +0.20100.4+0.09
Timed runs 2025-08-05 to 2026-06-19. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
19 Jun 26 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 6th, 2.4L ahead
THIN [n=3 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+2.6L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 1 todayThe top rating in this field (109.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, headway when baulked early in straight, lost place when short of room 2f out, forced to switch approaching final 1f, ran on”
#2KON TIKIMID
DRAW 2 · OR · Ryan Moore / Jane Chapple-Hyam
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
104.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 5pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
104.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 106
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (3.1)
Days since last run
38
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.9% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jane Chapple-Hyam · 534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-1120/2079.7%0.899/5117.6%1.21
In Class 1-3 company17/16110.6%1.165/5010.0%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)14/13910.1%0.893/2114.3%0.7
Over 7-8f trips ✦25/21311.7%0.988/6013.3%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)3/2313.0%1.840/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 106 at/around today's trip, clears the ~105.0 demand
The rider
Ryan Moore · last 14 days: 2/20· at Ascot: A/E 1.05 (n157)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.73 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
105.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 7
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot7f213yGd/Frm14th——Fast early39.2 +0.18100.3+0.37
2 May 26Goodwood1mGood12nd——True41.6 +0.29110.8+0.00
20 Jun 25Ascot7f213yGd/Frm17th——Fast early40.6 +0.5299.3+0.07
16 May 25York7f192yGood11st——Slow early40.0 +0.85101.6+0.23
Timed runs 2024-12-20 to 2026-06-17. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
17 Jun 26 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 8th, 1.9L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #2 in this field (104.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, hampered early, not clear run around 2f out, switched soon after, got gap over 1f out, stayed on”
#3SUKANYAMID
DRAW 6 · OR · Tom Marquand / Jack Channon
MARKET 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
104.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, a yard in form; one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
104.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 104
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (4.19)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Channon · 757 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, when the yard has won in the last 3 days
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦45/24118.7%1.3614/8117.3%1.38
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/140.0%0.01/119.1%1.25
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 104 is below the ~105.0 the race demands
The rider
Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 4/44· at Ascot: A/E 1.07 (n176)· with this yard: A/E 1.42 (n67)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 7
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Ascot7f213yGd/Frm16th——True39.1 -0.28100.0+0.00
Timed runs 2025-06-24 to 2026-06-19. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
19 Jun 26 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 2nd, 2.4L behind
THIN [n=3 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.6L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #3 in this field (104.0)Improving fast — last run rated 104, 10pts above his recent average of 93.3Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, not clear run over 2f out, got gap under 2f out, headway final 1f, never on terms”
#4PINA SONATAPROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
100.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
100.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 100
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (2.11)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Fanshawe · 828 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦41/28614.3%1.0418/8720.7%1.28
In fields of 8-1141/31213.1%0.8823/11320.4%1.28
On turf33/28911.4%0.826/10824.1%1.24
At this time of year (Q3)38/24615.4%0.978/3125.8%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 46 to 90 days10/5518.2%1.072/229.1%0.6
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/229.1%1.040/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 100 is below the ~105.0 the race demands
The rider
Daniel Muscutt · last 14 days: 1/14· at Ascot: A/E 0.34 (n42)· with this yard: A/E 1.01 (n394)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.49 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
99.9%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 7
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Sft17th——True38.5 -0.2192.0+0.17
28 Mar 26Kempton Park1mStd11st——True40.1 +0.12105.9-0.11
Timed runs 2024-10-11 to 2026-06-06. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“handy, lost place over 2f out, struggling soon after”
#5ARISAIGHELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR · Jamie Spencer / Charlie Johnston
MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
99FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 10pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
99 · ranked #5 here · career best 109
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 88
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 21 tries · below market expectation (0.74)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.41% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 19 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 20th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2333 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5227.9%0.812/1587.6%0.71
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦104/85612.1%0.9922/2429.1%0.78
At this time of year (Q3) ✦77/72610.6%0.8310/9910.1%0.78
On turf ✦120/112810.6%0.8536/33910.6%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)1/382.6%0.30/180.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 110 at/around today's trip, clears the ~105.0 demand
The rider
Jamie Spencer · last 14 days: 2/8· at Ascot: A/E 1 (n104)· with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n20)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.28 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 7
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Jul 26 · 1m · Good — finished 3rd vs 11th, 14.05L ahead
KON TIKI · 2 meetings≈ 1.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
17 Jun 26 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 4th, 1.9L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+3.5L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 1 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 21 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dropped out, shaken up home turn, headway wide soon after, kept on well final 1f, never nearer”
#6ESNA (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR · Mickael Barzalona / Brian Meehan
MARKET 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
97.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 12pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
97.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (2.49)
Days since last run
70
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.17% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 6 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Meehan · 327 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Ascot5/1926.3%4.350/90.0%0.0
Coming back after 46 to 90 days1/128.3%0.90/100.0%0.0
In fields of 8-119/1177.7%0.721/392.6%0.41
At this time of year (Q3)14/11612.1%0.991/185.6%0.44
Over 7-8f trips12/1229.8%0.852/395.1%0.57
On turf ✦22/20810.6%0.973/694.3%0.6
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 98 is below the ~105.0 the race demands
The rider
Mickael Barzalona · at Ascot: A/E 0.88 (n38)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 7
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 May 26Newbury1m2fGood11st——True39.1 +0.24106.3+0.06
3 May 26Newmarket1m2fGd/Frm14th——True39.8 -0.11105.2+0.86
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
W. McCreery, Ireland · 570 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 91 to 180 days1/128.3%0.811/166.2%0.73
On turf ✦32/3858.3%0.939/1257.2%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)0/40.0%0.01/333.3%5.54
At Ascot (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 99 is below the ~105.0 the race demands
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 18/71· at Ascot: A/E 1.1 (n210)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“tracked pace, outpaced, came wide straight, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to lead close home”
#8CHESHIRE DANCER (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR · C. T. Keane / Hugo Palmer
MARKET 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
84.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 24.7pts off the top, proven on the ground; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
84.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 105
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (2.43)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 96.04% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 19 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 20th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 1.13)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot4/3710.8%1.492/248.3%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.24/517.8%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0513/12510.4%0.77
Over 7-8f trips64/43414.7%1.2611/10910.1%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 106 at/around today's trip, clears the ~105.0 demand
The rider
C. T. Keane · last 14 days: 8/54· at Ascot: A/E 0.94 (n68)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n7)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
96.0%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 7
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-07-26 to 2026-07-07. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
7 Jul 26 · 1m · Good — finished 11th vs 3rd, 14.05L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-14.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayProven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 2.43)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)