FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ascot · 14:55
Class 2 · 7f · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 96
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 16 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:47 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 1-33333.3%57.6%42.4%60.6%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
STELLAR SUNRISE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (74% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (54% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, COMPLETELY RANDOM leads on 111, 4pts clear of EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. The case against the top pick: behind the rivals it has met on collateral form, habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is MEZCALA — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) the 22% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 12
COMPLETELY RANDOM
OR 102 · Ryan Moore / Harry Charlton
MARKET 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
111.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (111.0)Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.23)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 8
EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR)
OR 101 · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET 4.5 · the market rates it a 22% chance
107.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Rated #2 in this field (107.0)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 10
GREAT ACCLAIM
OR 102 · Charles Bishop / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
106 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayRated #3 in this field (106)Proven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 2.51)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE)net +9race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − steps into much stronger company by the marks
2MEZCALAnet +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
3STELLAR SUNRISEnet +8drops in class, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
COMPLETELY RANDOM carries behind the rivals it has met on collateral form, habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge COMPLETELY RANDOM lacks: prominent in the betting.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
MEZCALA  FIGURE #5
Jack Channon's runners in Class 1-3 company win 11.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Jack Channon's runners kept to the same class win 13.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE)  FIGURE #7
Jamie Osborne's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 14.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. won last time out, and Jamie Osborne is among the in-form yards this fortnight (11 runs).
STELLAR SUNRISE  FIGURE #10
Andrew Balding's runners in Class 1-3 company win 18.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Andrew Balding's runners above their last winning mark win 24.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
ARCTIC DAWN  FIGURE #11
Daniel's runners kept to the same class win 18.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 30% · hold-up closers 30% (30 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, testing uphill finish. Winners’ energy signature: 49.55% spent early (band 48.71–50.18%, 44 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.33s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
60 similar races at ASCOT, 6.0-8.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 1-3, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (74% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (54% from the first three favourites). 23% won last time out, 34% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
41% 4yo
26% 3yo
18% 5yo
Last ran
61% 15-45d
13% within 14d
11% 91d+
Market
46% 4th+ in the market
26% favourite
15% 2nd favourite
LTO form
39% unplaced last time
34% placed last time
23% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 16 runners · stalls 1–17
1234567891011121314151617
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.0 of 17, field average 9.2).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: COMPLETELY RANDOM is unraced on softer ground · EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) is 1/1 on softer ground · GREAT ACCLAIM is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) MID 49.5% 100.8 solid late gains (9th of 16 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
COMPLETELY RANDOM HELD-UP 48.5% 103.5 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
GREAT ACCLAIM MID 49.6% 100.6 solid late gains (10th of 16 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
TWO TRIBES HELD-UP 50.6% 98.1 held up without the late gear (15th of 16 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ARCTIC DAWN MID 49.4% 102.8 solid late gains (5th of 16 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MEZCALA MID 48.2% 105.0 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
STELLAR SUNRISE PROMINENT 49.7% 101.2 the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
BACK IN BLACK (IRE) MID 50.1% 100.3 one-paced late — 11th of 16 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) MID 49.3% 102.9 solid late gains (4th of 16 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SAYTARR HELD-UP 49.4% 100.9 solid late gains (8th of 16 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ATA RANGI (IRE) MID 50.5% 98.4 held up without the late gear (14th of 16 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
AALTO (FR) HELD-UP 50.1% 99.7 one-paced late — 13th of 16 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SWORD HELD-UP 50.6% 96.8 held up without the late gear (16th of 16 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
PHILANTHROPIST MID 48.5% 103.7 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
LEADMAN HELD-UP 49.9% 100.2 one-paced late — 12th of 16 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE) HELD-UP 50.2% 101.0 solid late gains (7th of 16 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
STELLAR SUNRISEPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
STELLAR SUNRISE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 COMPLETELY RANDOM HELD-UP
DRAW 12 · OR 102 · Ryan Moore / Harry Charlton
MARKET 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
111.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
111.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 115
Official mark (OR)
102 · last won off 93
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.23)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.48% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 100 last run (ASCOT · 20 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 3% with first-time gear (A/E 0.18)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 11110thClass 2 · 7f · rated 9711thClass 1 · 6f · rated 941stClass 1 · 6f · rated 1151stClass 3 · 6f · rated 112
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for COMPLETELY RANDOMbest 115needs 107–1112025-04-06 · TFR 97 · 4f213y · Std · C3 · off-trip2025-04-26 · TFR 104 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-05-17 · TFR 99 · 6f · Firm · C22025-06-21 · TFR 102 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-02 · TFR 97 · 6f · Good · C22025-08-23 · TFR 61 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-27 · TFR 96 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-11-05 · TFR 99 · 6f · Std · C22026-01-17 · TFR 112 · 6f · Std · C32026-01-31 · TFR 115 · 6f · Std/Slow · C12026-04-16 · TFR 94 · 6f · Good · C12026-05-09 · TFR 97 · 7f · Good · C22026-06-20 · TFR 111 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C26 Apr 2520 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Harry Charlton · 560 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company18/14312.6%0.828/4119.5%1.54
Above their last winning mark12/6518.5%0.966/2524.0%1.34
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦25/20812.0%0.764/517.8%0.58
At this time of year (Q3)28/20313.8%0.813/2313.0%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/258.0%0.582/922.2%4.3
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/200.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 115 at/around today's trip, clears the ~107.0 demand
The rider
Ryan Moore · last 14 days: 2/20 · at Ascot: A/E 1.05 (n157) · with this yard: A/E 1.75 (n13)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 16
+0.52 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 16
+0.40s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 16
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 16
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ascot6fGd/Frm22nd98100True41.0 +0.17102.8+0.33
9 May 26Ascot7fGood210th10095True41.1 +0.9299.5+0.38
16 Apr 26Newmarket6fGood111th——True41.7 -0.0499.2+0.56
31 Jan 26Lingfield6fStd/Slow11st——True42.3 +0.13106.5+0.51
17 Jan 26Lingfield6fStd31st9386True42.9 +1.52107.3+0.47
5 Nov 25Kempton Park6fStd24th9490True42.1 +0.40105.5+0.17
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.99slow2f+1.25par3f+1.06par4f+0.74par5f+0.50par6f+0.04fast
Timed runs 2025-11-05 to 2026-06-20. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TWO TRIBES · 4 meetings≈ 4.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
20 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 12th, 4.9L ahead · OR 98 v 103 · race median 100 (today 96)
AALTO (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 10th vs 9th, 0.75L behind · OR 100 v 89 · race median 95 (today 96)
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 10th vs 4th, 3.5L behind · OR 100 v 103 · race median 95 (today 96)
LEADMAN · 1 meeting≈ 5.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
27 Sep 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 8th, 0.3L ahead · OR 96 v 89 · race median 93 (today 96)
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 1 meeting · n/a
26 Apr 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 8th, 4.85L ahead · OR 92 v 91 · race median 92 (today 96) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
GREAT ACCLAIM · 1 meeting≈ 3.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 10th vs 2nd, 4.55L behind · OR 100 v 98 · race median 95 (today 96)
Read through a common rival
vs MEZCALA (read through PELLITORY, WITCH HUNTER, THE WIZARD OF EYE, HICKORY) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAYTARR (read through HICKORY, NOSTRUM) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BACK IN BLACK (IRE) (read through NIKOVO, NOSTRUM, ELARAK, DEFENCE MINISTER) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE) (read through SO DARN HOT, FAST TRACK HARRY, DESERT COP, COUL ANGEL) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
9lb above his last winning mark (102 today vs 93)Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (111.0)Improving fast — last run rated 111, 10pts above his recent average of 100.7Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.23)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“behind, headway from 2f out, finished well”
#2 EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) MID
DRAW 8 · OR 101 · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET 4.5 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
107.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, prominent in the betting; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
107.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 107
Official mark (OR)
101 · last won off 93
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.7)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.91% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 9lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 87 last run (YORK · 13 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 3 · 7f · rated 1071stClass 4 · 7f · rated 911stClass 4 · 6f · rated 95
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR)needs 107–111best 1072025-12-29 · TFR 95 · 6f · Std · C42026-05-15 · TFR 91 · 7f · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 107 · 7f · Good · C329 Dec 2513 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Haggas · 1593 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Cieren Fallon
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+16/8219.5%1.586/2920.7%1.66
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.127/6610.6%0.48
Over 7-8f trips104/51320.3%1.023/15315.0%0.72
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦138/63321.8%0.9827/16216.7%0.78
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 107 at/around today's trip, clears the ~107.0 demand
The rider
Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 4/44 · at Ascot: A/E 1.07 (n176) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n864)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 16
+0.34 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 16
+0.37s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 16
102.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 16
8.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26York7fGood31st9387True40.3 +0.25101.2+0.31
15 May 26Newbury7fGood41st——Slow early39.3 +0.48105.7+0.14
29 Dec 25Newcastle6fStd41st——True39.8 +0.30101.8+0.65
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.53par2f+0.43par3f+0.49par4f+0.39par5f+0.32par6f+0.03slow7fledfast
Timed runs 2025-12-29 to 2026-06-13. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Jun 26 · 7f · Good — finished 1st vs 5th, 3.5L ahead · OR 93 v 91 · race median 87 (today 96)
AALTO (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 3.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 7f · Good — finished 1st vs 14th, 7.35L ahead · OR 93 v 87 · race median 87 (today 96)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs TWO TRIBES (read through MIRABEAU, YANIFER, MILFORD, GLENFINNAN) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BACK IN BLACK (IRE) (read through BRIGHTON BOY, DARKNESS, ANDESITE) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SWORD (read through LIR SPECIALE, MIRABEAU, DARKNESS) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GREAT ACCLAIM (read through MIRABEAU, DARKNESS, YANIFER, GLENFINNAN) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb above his last winning mark (101 today vs 93)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRated #2 in this field (107.0)Improving fast — last run rated 107, 9pts above his recent average of 97.7Only 3 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 17 runsSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, had to wait for gap over 2f out, ridden entering final 1f, quickened to lead final 100 yds, well on top”
#3 GREAT ACCLAIM MID
DRAW 10 · OR 102 · Charles Bishop / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
106 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
106 · ranked #3 here · career best 111
Official mark (OR)
102 · last won off 94
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 23 tries · beats market expectation (2.51)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.59% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time visor · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.98)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 2 · 7f · rated 993rdClass 2 · 7f · rated 1112ndClass 2 · 7f · rated 1083rdClass 2 · 7f44y · rated 10516thClass 2 · 1m · rated 86
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GREAT ACCLAIMbest 111needs 107–1112025-04-12 · TFR 84 · 1m · Good · C22025-04-30 · TFR 68 · 1m · Firm · C32025-05-23 · TFR 87 · 7f · Good · C32025-06-26 · TFR 97 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-10 · TFR 88 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-30 · TFR 102 · 7f · Good · C32025-08-07 · TFR 102 · 7f15y · Good · C22025-08-23 · TFR 103 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-06 · TFR 107 · 7f · Good · C22025-10-04 · TFR 106 · 7f · Soft · C22025-10-18 · TFR 92 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22026-03-28 · TFR 86 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C22026-04-25 · TFR 105 · 7f37y · Gd/Frm · C22026-05-09 · TFR 108 · 7f · Good · C22026-06-18 · TFR 111 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22026-07-11 · TFR 99 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C212 Apr 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Eve Johnson Houghton · 1052 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-FALLING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦39/35311.0%1.1516/10016.0%1.29
At this time of year (Q3) ✦38/36410.4%1.0210/5219.2%1.29
On turf ✦64/57611.1%1.0627/18614.5%1.22
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦21/13116.0%1.49/4520.0%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦14/2326.0%0.733/664.5%0.53
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)2/395.1%1.140/160.0%0.0
At Ascot (small sample)1/392.6%0.471/137.7%1.27
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 111 at/around today's trip, clears the ~107.0 demand
The rider
Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 4/29 · at Ascot: A/E 1.14 (n59) · with this yard: A/E 0.91 (n664)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields14th of 16
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 16
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 16
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length16th of 16
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm28th10095True40.5 -0.3996.6+0.39
18 Jun 26Ascot7fGd/Frm23rd10096Slow early39.9 +0.15105.0+0.08
9 May 26Ascot7fGood22nd9895True40.3 +0.12100.3+0.52
25 Apr 26Haydock Park7f37yGd/Frm23rd9897True40.3 +0.04101.4+0.16
28 Mar 26Doncaster1mGd/Sft216th10095True38.9 -0.1598.0+0.26
18 Oct 25Ascot1mGd/Frm214th10099.5True39.8 +0.06102.2+0.27
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.24par2f+0.18fast3f+0.16par4f+0.23par5f+0.14par6f+0.01slow7f+0.74very slow
Timed runs 2025-10-18 to 2026-07-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 4.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 23rd, 10.6L ahead · OR 100 v 103 · race median 96 (today 96)
TWO TRIBES · 3 meetings≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 7th, 1.25L behind · OR 100 v 103 · race median 95 (today 96)
LEADMAN · 2 meetings≈ 3.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Sep 25 · 7f · Good — finished 2nd vs 12th, 8L ahead · OR 97 v 91 · race median 95 (today 96)
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 2 meetings≈ 0.0L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
4 Oct 25 · 7f · Soft — finished 4th vs 8th, 2.5L ahead · OR 100 v 95 · race median 97 (today 96)
AALTO (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 1st, 4.6L behind · OR 100 v 87 · race median 95 (today 96)
BACK IN BLACK (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 3.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 2nd, 4.1L behind · OR 100 v 94 · race median 95 (today 96)
ARCTIC DAWN · 1 meeting≈ 9.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 24th, 10.7L ahead · OR 100 v 100 · race median 96 (today 96)
MEZCALA · 1 meeting≈ 0.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 1st, 0.6L behind · OR 100 v 94 · race median 96 (today 96)
SWORD · 1 meeting≈ 6.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Sep 25 · 7f · Good — finished 2nd vs 16th, 9.2L ahead · OR 97 v 86 · race median 95 (today 96)
COMPLETELY RANDOM · 1 meeting≈ 3.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 2nd vs 10th, 4.55L ahead · OR 98 v 100 · race median 95 (today 96)
Read through a common rival
vs SAYTARR (read through HICKORY, NOSTRUM, GREEK ORDER, DAPPER GUEST) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PHILANTHROPIST (read through NOSTRUM, OLIVER SHOW, CRIMSON SPIRIT, HUMAM) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE) (read through SO DARN HOT, SUPERPOSITION) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) (read through MIRABEAU, DARKNESS, YANIFER, GLENFINNAN) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb above his last winning mark (102 today vs 94)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayRated #3 in this field (106)Proven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 2.51)Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 2f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on”
#4 TWO TRIBES HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 102 · David Egan / Richard Spencer
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
106.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 5pts off the top, proven on the ground; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
106.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 111
Official mark (OR)
102 · last won off 95
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 18 tries · beats market expectation (1.06)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.1% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 2 · 7f · rated 10612thClass 2 · 6f · rated 1005thClass 2 · 7f · rated 10610thClass 2 · 6f · rated 964thClass 2 · 6f · rated 106
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TWO TRIBESbest 111needs 107–1112025-05-03 · TFR 96 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-05-14 · TFR 97 · 6f · Good · C22025-06-07 · TFR 95 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-26 · TFR 64 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-11 · TFR 95 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-26 · TFR 101 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-02 · TFR 111 · 6f · Good · C22025-08-23 · TFR 106 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-20 · TFR 96 · 6f · Soft · C22025-10-04 · TFR 106 · 7f · Soft · C22026-06-20 · TFR 100 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22026-07-11 · TFR 106 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C23 May 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Spencer · 508 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦23/22910.0%1.1915/7420.3%1.3
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days6/5610.7%0.743/2412.5%0.77
At this time of year (Q3)25/15715.9%1.433/2910.3%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)5/519.8%2.071/714.3%2.45
At Ascot (small sample)1/254.0%0.640/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 111 at/around today's trip, clears the ~107.0 demand
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 7/30 · at Ascot: A/E 0.34 (n138) · with this yard: A/E 2.08 (n16)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 16
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 16
+0.43s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed15th of 16
98.1%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 16
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm27th10395True41.4 +0.5098.2+0.63
20 Jun 26Ascot6fGd/Frm212th103100True40.8 +0.00100.4+0.10
4 Oct 25Ascot7fSoft25th10397Fast early37.8 +0.0698.2+0.33
20 Sep 25Ayr6fSoft210th10396True41.6 +0.2094.8+0.86
23 Aug 25York6fGd/Frm24th10395True42.3 -0.2099.8+0.35
2 Aug 25Goodwood6fGood21st9597Fast early43.6 +0.0597.2+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.54par2f+0.59par3f+0.57par4f+0.68par5f+0.39par6f+0.24slow7f+0.52slow
Timed runs 2025-08-02 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
COMPLETELY RANDOM · 4 meetings≈ 4.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
20 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 2nd, 4.9L behind · OR 103 v 98 · race median 100 (today 96)
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 3 meetings≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
4 Oct 25 · 7f · Soft — finished 5th vs 8th, 1.75L ahead · OR 103 v 95 · race median 97 (today 96)
GREAT ACCLAIM · 3 meetings≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 8th, 1.25L ahead · OR 103 v 100 · race median 95 (today 96)
AALTO (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 2.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 1st, 3.35L behind · OR 103 v 87 · race median 95 (today 96)
LEADMAN · 1 meeting · n/a
11 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 1st, 2.25L behind · OR 89 v 83 · race median 89 (today 96) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 4th, 2.55L ahead · OR 90 v 100 · race median 94 (today 96)
SWORD · 1 meeting≈ 4.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 1.3L ahead · OR 90 v 85 · race median 94 (today 96)
BACK IN BLACK (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 2nd, 2.85L behind · OR 103 v 94 · race median 95 (today 96)
Read through a common rival
vs ARCTIC DAWN (read through ELARAK, DARK TORNADO, GALERON, HICKORY) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MEZCALA (read through ELARAK, COLOMBIER, THE FINGAL RAVEN, HICKORY) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) (read through MIRABEAU, YANIFER, MILFORD, GLENFINNAN) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ATA RANGI (IRE) (read through NOSTRUM, CERULEAN BAY, GALERON, GLENFINNAN) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (102 today vs 95)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayLost roughly 2.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 6 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, ridden 2f out, stayed on”
#5 MEZCALA MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 13 · OR 98 · George Bass / Jack Channon
MARKET 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
106.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
106.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 106
Official mark (OR)
98 · last won off 94
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.82)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.97% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 2 · 7f · rated 1063rdClass 2 · 1m · rated 1021stClass 2 · 1m · rated 1017thClass 3 · 1m1f · rated 902ndClass 4 · 1m44y · rated 94
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MEZCALAneeds 107–111best 1062025-07-09 · TFR 67 · 1m · Good · C52025-07-31 · TFR 78 · 1m75y · Soft · C52025-08-21 · TFR 86 · 1m · Std · C52025-09-06 · TFR 94 · 1m37y · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-26 · TFR 90 · 1m1f · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2026-03-28 · TFR 101 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C22026-05-16 · TFR 102 · 1m · Good · C22026-06-18 · TFR 106 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C29 Jul 2518 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Channon · 757 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, when the yard has won in the last 3 days
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+4/429.5%1.573/2213.6%2.8
Over 7-8f trips ✦45/24118.7%1.3614/8117.3%1.38
Above their last winning mark27/14418.8%1.256/3318.2%1.27
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/140.0%0.01/119.1%1.25
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 106 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
George Bass · last 14 days: 1/6 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n6) · with this yard: A/E 1.05 (n228)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 16
+0.44 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 16
+0.26s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 16
105.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 16
7.56 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Ascot7fGd/Frm21st9496Slow early40.0 +0.31105.7+0.50
16 May 26Newbury1mGood23rd9395True40.0 +0.61103.5+0.53
28 Mar 26Doncaster1mGd/Sft21st8585True38.9 +1.31105.8+0.42
26 Sep 25Newmarket1m1fGd/Frm37th8587True39.4 +0.20103.1+0.29
6 Sep 25Haydock Park1m37yGd/Frm42nd8480True40.7 +0.01104.2-0.05
21 Aug 25Lingfield1mStd51st——True40.5 +0.20107.4-0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.83par2f+0.79slow3f+0.79slow4f+0.73slow5f+0.66par6f+0.40fast7fledvery fast
Timed runs 2025-08-21 to 2026-06-18. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 23rd, 11.2L ahead · OR 94 v 103 · race median 96 (today 96)
GREAT ACCLAIM · 1 meeting≈ 0.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 0.6L ahead · OR 94 v 100 · race median 96 (today 96)
ARCTIC DAWN · 1 meeting≈ 9.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 24th, 11.3L ahead · OR 94 v 100 · race median 96 (today 96)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+5.9L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs COMPLETELY RANDOM (read through PELLITORY, WITCH HUNTER, THE WIZARD OF EYE, HICKORY) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ATA RANGI (IRE) (read through DESPERATE DAN, TALIS EVOLVERE, INTRUSIVELY, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ +4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SWORD (read through LIR SPECIALE, TALIS EVOLVERE, ON THE RIVER, CLASSIC) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LEADMAN (read through ELARAK, TALIS EVOLVERE, LIR SPECIALE, DANCE IN THE STORM) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (98 today vs 94)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“dwelt, held up, going well when short of room 2f out, headway over 1f out, weaved through final 100 yds, led late on”
#6 BACK IN BLACK (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 94 · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
105.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 6pts off the top, a yard in form; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
105.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 106
Official mark (OR)
94 · last won off 86
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 13 tries · below market expectation (0.68)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.27% (one-paced late)
Headgear
First-time tongue strap · yard 18% with first-time gear (A/E 1.38)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 2 · 7f · rated 1052ndClass 2 · 1m · rated 1043rdClass 3 · 7f132y · rated 1014thClass 2 · 1m · rated 1044thClass 2 · 7f · rated 101
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BACK IN BLACK (IRE)needs 107–111best 1062025-04-11 · TFR 99 · 7f · Good · C22025-08-23 · TFR 96 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-14 · TFR 106 · 7f · Good · C22025-10-12 · TFR 101 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22025-11-03 · TFR 101 · 7f · Std · C22026-04-18 · TFR 104 · 1m · Good · C22026-05-09 · TFR 101 · 7f134y · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-25 · TFR 104 · 1m · Slow · C22026-07-11 · TFR 105 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C211 Apr 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Fanshawe · 828 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦41/28614.3%1.0418/8720.7%1.28
On turf33/28911.4%0.826/10824.1%1.24
At this time of year (Q3)38/24615.4%0.978/3125.8%1.17
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/229.1%1.040/70.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/283.6%0.550/60.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)8/5016.0%0.961/128.3%0.34
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 105 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
Daniel Muscutt · last 14 days: 1/14 · at Ascot: A/E 0.34 (n42) · with this yard: A/E 1.01 (n394)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 16
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 16
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 16
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 16
7.73 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm22nd9495True41.6 +0.7399.4+0.24
25 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow22nd9491True40.0 +0.1998.7—
9 May 26Lingfield7f135yGd/Frm33rd9488.5True42.5 +0.1296.5+0.00
18 Apr 26Newbury1mGood24th9497True38.9 -0.13103.1+0.15
3 Nov 25Kempton Park7fStd24th9494True40.6 +0.38104.2+0.32
14 Sep 25Doncaster7fGood23rd9289.5True40.6 -0.0099.7+0.29
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.60slow2f+0.63par3f+0.65par4f+0.73par5f+0.38par6fledpar7f+0.09par
Timed runs 2025-09-14 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AALTO (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 0.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.5L behind · OR 94 v 87 · race median 95 (today 96)
GREAT ACCLAIM · 2 meetings≈ 3.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 8th, 4.1L ahead · OR 94 v 100 · race median 95 (today 96)
TWO TRIBES · 1 meeting≈ 2.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 7th, 2.85L ahead · OR 94 v 103 · race median 95 (today 96)
SWORD · 1 meeting≈ 27.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 May 26 · 7f135y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 8th, 27.8L ahead · OR 94 v 86 · race median 88 (today 96)
SAYTARR · 1 meeting · n/a
22 May 24 · 6f · Soft — finished 2nd vs 5th, 6.3L ahead · stale — 26m ago, not in the read
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+7.0L adj, 6 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ARCTIC DAWN (read through ELARAK, DARK TORNADO, APOTHEOSIS, SPELL MASTER) ≈ +4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ATA RANGI (IRE) (read through NOSTRUM, MORTE POINT, CERULEAN BAY, EPICTETUS) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LEADMAN (read through ELARAK, NIKOVO, BILLYJOH, WHIP CRACKER) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GOLDEN MIND (IRE) (read through ELARAK, NIKOVO, OLIVER SHOW, CERULEAN BAY) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb above his last winning mark (94 today vs 86)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.23 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-division, headway over 2f out, weaved through, every chance entering final 1f, kept on”
#7 AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE) HELD-UP DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 4 · OR 90 · Saffie Osborne / Jamie Osborne
MARKET 6.8 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
101.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 10pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
101.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 101
Official mark (OR)
90 · last won off 87
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (2.42)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.95% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 88 last run (ASCOT · 10 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 3 · 6f · rated 1012ndClass 4 · 6f · rated 1011stClass 4 · 6f · rated 963rdClass 3 · 6f · rated 867thClass 4 · 7f · rated 71
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE)needs 107–111best 1012025-06-01 · TFR 68 · 6f · Slow · C52025-06-23 · TFR 77 · 6f15y · Good · C52025-07-12 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-31 · TFR 77 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C22025-08-21 · TFR 60 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-10-12 · TFR 71 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-25 · TFR 86 · 6f · Firm · C32026-06-10 · TFR 96 · 6f · Slow · C42026-07-01 · TFR 101 · 6f · Good · C42026-07-10 · TFR 101 · 6f · Firm · C31 Jun 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jamie Osborne · 782 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: over an unchanged trip, with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company4/1372.9%0.54/3611.1%1.85
Above their last winning mark17/13312.8%0.9910/6116.4%1.35
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦33/27811.9%1.2812/8314.5%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf24/2579.3%1.065/726.9%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/258.0%2.341/714.3%2.63
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/293.4%1.260/90.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 101 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
Saffie Osborne · last 14 days: 4/35 · at Ascot: A/E 1.82 (n92) · with this yard: A/E 1.08 (n521)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 16
+0.53 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 16
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 16
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 16
7.54 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Ascot6fFirm31st8788True41.5 +0.51106.8+0.13
1 Jul 26Epsom Downs6fGood42nd8780—43.2 +0.96104.0+0.21—
10 Jun 26Kempton Park6fSlow41st8180Fast early39.2 -0.45100.7+0.31
25 May 26Leicester6fFirm33rd8185True44.5 +0.9098.3+0.46
21 Aug 25York7fGd/Frm212th8282.5True39.6 +0.5297.7+0.57
31 Jul 25Goodwood7fGd/Sft25th8183Fast early39.3 +0.7598.0+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.33very slow2f+0.40slow3f+0.38par4f+0.21par5f+0.10fast6fledvery fast
Timed runs 2025-07-31 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
STELLAR SUNRISE · 1 meeting≈ 7.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
21 Aug 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 1st, 10.3L behind · OR 82 v 88 · race median 82 (today 96)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-7.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs COMPLETELY RANDOM (read through SO DARN HOT, FAST TRACK HARRY, DESERT COP, COUL ANGEL) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ARCTIC DAWN (read through SUPERPOSITION, SO DARN HOT) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GREAT ACCLAIM (read through SO DARN HOT, SUPERPOSITION) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TWO TRIBES (read through FAST TRACK HARRY, DESERT COP, SUPERPOSITION) ≈ -0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (90 today vs 87)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayProven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 2.42)Jockey goes well at this track (1.82x market expectation)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, short of room 2f out, headway switched approaching final 1f, quickened to lead inside final 100 yds, kept on, comfortably”
#8 SAYTARR HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 16 · OR 90 · Mickael Barzalona / James Horton
MARKET 75 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
100.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 11pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
100.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 100
Official mark (OR)
90 · last won off 87
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 18 tries · beats market expectation (1.8)
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.93% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 15 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 13lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 83 last run (KEMPTON PARK · 29 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 1m · rated 1005thClass 3 · 1m · rated 863rdClass 3 · 1m · rated 941stClass 4 · 1m · rated 891stClass 4 · 1m22y · rated 88
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SAYTARRneeds 107–111best 1002025-08-01 · TFR 72 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C52025-08-19 · TFR 78 · 6f · Std · C52025-08-26 · TFR 76 · 7f · Std · C52025-09-16 · TFR 71 · 7f · Good · C52025-09-18 · TFR 78 · 1m · Std · C52025-10-08 · TFR 61 · 1m75y · Soft · C42025-10-23 · TFR 67 · 1m13y · Std · C52026-01-30 · TFR 86 · 7f13y · Std · C52026-02-28 · TFR 88 · 1m13y · Std · C42026-03-27 · TFR 89 · 1m · Std · C42026-05-01 · TFR 94 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C32026-05-28 · TFR 86 · 1m · Good · C32026-06-29 · TFR 100 · 1m · Slow · C41 Aug 2529 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Horton · 366 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark4/4010.0%0.886/1442.9%3.25
In Class 1-3 company2/523.8%0.582/2010.0%1.96
Coming back after 15 to 45 days18/14012.9%1.36/3815.8%1.72
Over 7-8f trips10/1158.7%1.024/3810.5%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)8/1097.3%0.881/156.7%0.61
On turf16/15410.4%1.153/446.8%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/90.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 101 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
Mickael Barzalona · at Ascot: A/E 0.88 (n38)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 16
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 16
+0.38s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 16
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length13th of 16
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Kempton Park1mSlow41st8783—38.8 +0.05100.4+0.64—
28 May 26Sandown Park1mGood35th8789True39.1 +0.66100.9+0.32
1 May 26Ascot1mGd/Frm33rd8687True39.6 +0.2599.5+0.32
27 Mar 26Newcastle1mStd41st8279True38.9 +0.41102.2+0.60
28 Feb 26Southwell1m13yStd41st7677Fast early39.4 +0.03100.5+0.15
30 Jan 26Southwell7f14yStd51st7272True39.2 -0.14102.1+0.23
Timed runs 2026-01-30 to 2026-06-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BACK IN BLACK (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
22 May 24 · 6f · Soft — finished 5th vs 2nd, 6.3L behind · stale — 26m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs COMPLETELY RANDOM (read through HICKORY, NOSTRUM) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ARCTIC DAWN (read through HICKORY, ANGEL HUNTER, DARK TORNADO, DAPPER GUEST) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PHILANTHROPIST (read through NOSTRUM, DARK TORNADO, GORGEOUS MR GEORGE, GRABAJABBA) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ATA RANGI (IRE) (read through NOSTRUM, CHALK MOUNTAIN, ARCTIC THUNDER, BLAZING SON) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (90 today vs 87)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayProven over the trip (18 tries, beats market expectation at 1.8)Lost roughly 2.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden and headway 2f out, beaten 1f out”
#9 AALTO (FR) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 11 · OR 88 · William Buick / Ian Williams
MARKET 15 · the market rates it a 6% chance
100.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 11pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
100.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 103
Official mark (OR)
88 · last won off 87
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 18 tries · beats market expectation (1.21)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.73% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Tongue strap · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.81)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 2 · 7f · rated 1002ndClass 3 · 7f · rated 9314thClass 3 · 7f · rated 839thClass 2 · 7f · rated 898thClass 3 · 1m · rated 63
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for AALTO (FR)needs 107–111best 1032025-06-20 · TFR 25 · 1m · Good · C32025-07-12 · TFR 101 · 7f · Good · C22025-07-26 · TFR 58 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-21 · TFR 98 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-27 · TFR 81 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-11-03 · TFR 86 · 7f · Std · C22025-11-27 · TFR 63 · 1m · Slow · C32026-05-09 · TFR 89 · 7f · Good · C22026-06-13 · TFR 83 · 7f · Good · C32026-06-25 · TFR 93 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-11 · TFR 100 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C220 Jun 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 103 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
William Buick · last 14 days: 10/24 · at Ascot: A/E 0.74 (n199) · with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n40)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 16
+0.30 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph16th of 16
+0.74s
Slow away in 5 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed13th of 16
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 16
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm21st8795True40.9 +0.00101.1+0.79
25 Jun 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm32nd8590True40.4 +0.1899.8+0.50
13 Jun 26York7fGood314th8787True40.6 +0.5299.2+0.85
9 May 26Ascot7fGood29th8995True40.4 +0.2399.5—
27 Nov 25Newcastle1mSlow38th9187.5True40.1 +0.2993.7+0.48
3 Nov 25Kempton Park7fStd27th9394True40.8 +0.56105.1+1.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.01slow2f+1.06par3f+0.98par4f+0.96par5f+0.72par6f+0.21par7fledpar
Timed runs 2025-11-03 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 4 meetings≈ 7.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 7f · Good — finished 14th vs 5th, 3.85L behind · OR 87 v 91 · race median 87 (today 96)
COMPLETELY RANDOM · 2 meetings≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 9th vs 10th, 0.75L ahead · OR 89 v 100 · race median 95 (today 96)
LEADMAN · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · reverses
27 Sep 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 11th vs 8th, 4.2L behind · OR 94 v 89 · race median 93 (today 96)
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 6.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 9th vs 4th, 2.75L behind · OR 89 v 103 · race median 95 (today 96)
GREAT ACCLAIM · 2 meetings≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 8th, 4.6L ahead · OR 87 v 100 · race median 95 (today 96)
BACK IN BLACK (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.5L ahead · OR 87 v 94 · race median 95 (today 96)
TWO TRIBES · 2 meetings≈ 2.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 7th, 3.35L ahead · OR 87 v 103 · race median 95 (today 96)
PHILANTHROPIST · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · confirms
25 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 4th, 2L ahead · OR 85 v 85 · race median 90 (today 96)
SWORD · 1 meeting≈ 12.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 18th vs 3rd, 14.35L behind · OR 91 v 85 · race median 94 (today 96)
EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 3.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 7f · Good — finished 14th vs 1st, 7.35L behind · OR 87 v 93 · race median 87 (today 96)
Read through a common rival
vs ARCTIC DAWN (read through ELARAK, PELLITORY, SUPERPOSITION, THE WIZARD OF EYE) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MEZCALA (read through ELARAK, PELLITORY, WITCH HUNTER, THE WIZARD OF EYE) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAYTARR (read through HICKORY, NOSTRUM, DAPPER GUEST, DARK TORNADO) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE) (read through SUPERPOSITION, SO DARN HOT, DAYDREAMA) ≈ -0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 100, 8pts above his recent average of 92.0Proven over the trip (18 tries, beats market expectation at 1.21)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsLost roughly 3.5 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“missed break, held up, going well when badly hampered over 1f out, not recover”
#10 STELLAR SUNRISE PROMINENT FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR 102 · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
97.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 13.3pts off the top, dropping in class; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
97.7 · ranked #10 here · career best 107
Official mark (OR)
102 · last won off 95
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.63)
Days since last run
50
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.22% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 1 · 7f · rated 863rdClass 1 · 7f · rated 1001stClass 2 · 7f · rated 1075thClass 1 · 7f · rated 741stClass 2 · 7f · rated 96
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for STELLAR SUNRISEneeds 107–111best 1072025-05-23 · TFR 74 · 6f · Good · C42025-06-14 · TFR 74 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-29 · TFR 92 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-21 · TFR 96 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-10-25 · TFR 74 · 7f · Heavy · C12026-04-17 · TFR 107 · 7f · Good · C22026-05-01 · TFR 100 · 7f · Good · C12026-06-05 · TFR 86 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C123 May 255 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2437 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+11/1348.2%1.034/3611.1%1.76
At Ascot14/12611.1%0.985/4112.2%1.48
Above their last winning mark ✦49/28917.0%1.0524/9824.5%1.35
Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0549/21822.5%1.23
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 107 at/around today's trip, clears the ~107.0 demand
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 18/71 · at Ascot: A/E 1.1 (n210) · with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n944)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields15th of 16
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 16
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 16
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length12th of 16
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft16th——Slow early42.0 -0.25104.8+0.53
1 May 26Newmarket7fGood13rd——Slow early40.7 +0.16105.1-0.02
17 Apr 26Newbury7fGood21st9585True39.9 -0.68101.2+0.03
25 Oct 25Newbury7fHeavy15th——True37.9 +0.2696.5-0.03
21 Aug 25York7fGd/Frm21st8882.5True39.3 +0.20100.4+0.23
29 Jul 25Goodwood6fGd/Frm21st——True42.5 -0.2799.4+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.79slow2f+1.08slow3f+1.33very slow4f+1.25slow5f+0.84par6f+0.83fast7f+1.07par
Timed runs 2025-07-29 to 2026-06-05. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AMAZING JOURNEY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 7.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
21 Aug 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 12th, 10.3L ahead · OR 88 v 82 · race median 82
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+7.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (102 today vs 95)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.63)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsLost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, shaken up soon after start, struggling 2f out”
#11 ARCTIC DAWN MID
DRAW 7 · OR 100 · C. T. Keane / Daniel & Claire Kubler
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
95.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 15.3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
95.7 · ranked #11 here · career best 107
Official mark (OR)
100 · last won off 91
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 16 tries · beats market expectation (1.48)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.83% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
24thClass 2 · 7f · rated 821stClass 3 · 7f · rated 1073rdClass 3 · 7f · rated 985thClass 3 · 7f · rated 968thClass 4 · 7f · rated 88
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ARCTIC DAWNneeds 107–111best 1072025-04-27 · TFR 88 · 7f13y · Slow · C42025-05-15 · TFR 80 · 1m · Slow · C42025-05-31 · TFR 84 · 7f · Firm · C42025-06-22 · TFR 81 · 7f79y · Soft · C52025-07-24 · TFR 70 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C42025-08-07 · TFR 73 · 7f15y · Good · C42025-09-05 · TFR 89 · 7f · Std · C42025-09-24 · TFR 88 · 7f · Slow · C42025-10-27 · TFR 99 · 7f13y · Slow · C42025-11-05 · TFR 88 · 7f · Std · C42025-12-03 · TFR 96 · 7f · Std · C32026-05-16 · TFR 98 · 7f · Good · C32026-06-06 · TFR 107 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-18 · TFR 82 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C227 Apr 2518 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Daniel & Claire Kubler · 549 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company7/1106.4%0.783/2213.6%1.92
Above their last winning mark30/17017.6%1.146/3318.2%1.63
Coming back after 15 to 45 days44/26816.4%1.175/2917.2%1.42
Over 7-8f trips ✦29/20614.1%1.047/4017.5%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf45/28415.8%1.154/439.3%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/150.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/250.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 107 at/around today's trip, clears the ~107.0 demand
The rider
C. T. Keane · last 14 days: 8/54 · at Ascot: A/E 0.94 (n68) · with this yard: A/E 2.03 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 16
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 16
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 16
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 16
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Ascot7fGd/Frm224th10096Slow early39.7 -0.01100.2+0.24
6 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm31st9191True41.0 -0.0699.9+0.00
16 May 26Newmarket7fGood33rd9190True40.4 -0.21103.0+0.08
3 Dec 25Lingfield7fStd35th9287.5True40.7 -0.35105.0+0.21
5 Nov 25Kempton Park7fStd48th8982Fast early41.2 +0.9699.0+0.10
27 Oct 25Newcastle7f14ySlow41st8479Slow early40.8 +0.52110.0+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.61par2f+0.72slow3f+0.75slow4f+0.60slow5f+0.72par6f+1.16slow7f+1.85slow
Timed runs 2025-10-27 to 2026-06-18. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ATA RANGI (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
15 May 25 · 1m · Slow — finished 5th vs 9th, 3.75L ahead · OR 77 v 80 · race median 76 (today 96) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses
6 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 3.55L ahead · OR 91 v 91 · race median 91 (today 96)
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.6L behind on today's terms · reverses
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 24th vs 23rd, 0.1L behind · OR 100 v 103 · race median 96 (today 96)
GREAT ACCLAIM · 1 meeting≈ 9.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 24th vs 3rd, 10.7L behind · OR 100 v 100 · race median 96 (today 96)
MEZCALA · 1 meeting≈ 9.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 24th vs 1st, 11.3L behind · OR 100 v 94 · race median 96 (today 96)
Read through a common rival
vs AALTO (FR) (read through ELARAK, PELLITORY, SUPERPOSITION, THE WIZARD OF EYE) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BACK IN BLACK (IRE) (read through ELARAK, DARK TORNADO, APOTHEOSIS, SPELL MASTER) ≈ -4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TWO TRIBES (read through ELARAK, DARK TORNADO, GALERON, HICKORY) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PHILANTHROPIST (read through SUPERPOSITION, CRIMSON SPIRIT, BRASIL POWER, CANDONOMORE) ≈ -3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
9lb above his last winning mark (100 today vs 91)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayProven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.48)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, one paced”
#12 ATA RANGI (IRE) MID
DRAW 15 · OR 88 · Ashley Lewis / Ed Walker
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 19pts off the top, a yard in form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #13 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
88 · last won off 85
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.92)
Days since last run
44
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s)
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.37% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 6 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 88 last run (NEWBURY · 11 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 7f · rated 921stClass 4 · 7f · rated 975thClass 4 · 7f · rated 745thClass 3 · 1m · rated 877thClass 2 · 1m · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ATA RANGI (IRE)needs 107–111best 972025-04-07 · TFR 85 · 1m · Std · C42025-05-15 · TFR 73 · 1m · Slow · C42025-07-26 · TFR 90 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-05 · TFR 93 · 6f211y · Gd/Frm · C32025-09-24 · TFR 72 · 1m · Good · C22025-10-25 · TFR 87 · 1m · Heavy · C32025-11-08 · TFR 74 · 7f · Heavy · C42026-05-09 · TFR 97 · 6f211y · Good · C42026-06-11 · TFR 92 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C37 Apr 2511 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1119 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2), on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company31/28710.8%1.017/10815.7%1.65
At Ascot6/4912.2%1.53/2810.7%1.63
Over 7-8f trips52/41412.6%0.9829/14520.0%1.27
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0340/22118.1%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+5/549.3%1.291/254.0%0.83
Above their last winning mark ✦16/10615.1%0.925/4411.4%0.85
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 97 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 9/28 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n5) · with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n42)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 16
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 16
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed14th of 16
98.4%
One-paced late
Stride length11th of 16
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Newbury7fGd/Sft34th8988True39.6 +0.1799.6-0.10
9 May 26Haydock Park6f212yGood41st8582True40.1 +1.21100.0+0.18
8 Nov 25Doncaster7fHeavy45th8680Fast early38.1 +0.0491.7+0.30
25 Oct 25Doncaster1mHeavy35th8786.5True36.9 -0.0496.1+0.00
24 Sep 25Goodwood1mGood27th8793.5True39.8 +0.3097.1+0.25
5 Sep 25Haydock Park6f212yGd/Frm31st8383Slow early40.1 +0.75105.8+0.37
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26par2f+0.41slow3f+0.42par4f+0.36par5f+0.20par6f+0.16par7f+0.85slow
Timed runs 2025-09-05 to 2026-06-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ARCTIC DAWN · 1 meeting · n/a
15 May 25 · 1m · Slow — finished 9th vs 5th, 3.75L behind · OR 80 v 77 · race median 76 (today 96) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs MEZCALA (read through DESPERATE DAN, TALIS EVOLVERE, INTRUSIVELY, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ -4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BACK IN BLACK (IRE) (read through NOSTRUM, MORTE POINT, CERULEAN BAY, EPICTETUS) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GOLDEN MIND (IRE) (read through STORM FREE, NOSTRUM, PERSUASION, CERULEAN BAY) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAYTARR (read through NOSTRUM, CHALK MOUNTAIN, ARCTIC THUNDER, BLAZING SON) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (88 today vs 85)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.92)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“prominent, shaken up under 3f out, every chance over 1f out, one paced”
#13 SWORD HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 85 · Marco Ghiani / Stuart Williams
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
92 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
14th on the figures, 19pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
92 · ranked #14 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
1 win from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.34)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 96.76% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 11lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 85 last run (NEWMARKET · 11 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time tongue strap · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.9)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 3 · 7f · rated 903rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 948thClass 3 · 7f132y · rated 911thClass 3 · 1m · rated 532ndClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 94
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SWORDneeds 107–111best 942025-05-16 · TFR 27 · 7f · Good · C42025-06-03 · TFR 89 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-04 · TFR 92 · 6f211y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-11 · TFR 86 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-26 · TFR 93 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-07 · TFR 76 · 1m13y · Good · C42025-08-21 · TFR 59 · 7f13y · Slow · C22025-09-06 · TFR 70 · 7f · Good · C22025-09-28 · TFR 80 · 1m · Slow · C42025-10-04 · TFR 94 · 7f13y · Slow · C42025-10-17 · TFR 53 · 7f211y · Gd/Sft · C32026-05-09 · TFR 9 · 7f134y · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-12 · TFR 94 · 7f · Good · C42026-07-11 · TFR 90 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C316 May 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 973 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1219.1%0.712/365.6%0.53
In Class 1-3 company14/14010.0%1.213/555.5%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/170.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/195.3%1.750/140.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 96 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
Marco Ghiani · last 14 days: 6/39 · at Ascot: A/E 1.04 (n26) · with this yard: A/E 1.37 (n326)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 16
+0.24 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph14th of 16
+0.43s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed16th of 16
96.8%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 16
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm36th8585True40.9 -0.18104.0+0.23
12 Jun 26York7fGood43rd8577.5True40.4 +0.73100.0+0.72
9 May 26Lingfield7f135yGd/Frm38th8688.5True42.4 +0.0187.9+0.41
17 Oct 25Haydock Park7f212yGd/Sft311th8787True38.7 +0.3393.5+0.63
4 Oct 25Newcastle7f14ySlow42nd8584Fast early40.0 +0.2195.8+0.44
28 Sep 25Newcastle1mSlow48th8582True40.3 +0.3599.4+0.14
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.23slow2f+0.17very slow3f+0.18very slow4f+0.09par5f+0.05par6f+0.15fast7f+0.46fast
Timed runs 2025-09-28 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LEADMAN · 3 meetings≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · reverses
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 5th, 0.1L behind · OR 85 v 84 · race median 85 (today 96)
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 2 meetings≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Sep 25 · 7f · Good — finished 16th vs 9th, 3.15L behind · OR 86 v 97 · race median 95 (today 96)
GOLDEN MIND (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
21 Aug 25 · 7f14y · Slow — finished 14th vs 1st, 11.85L behind · OR 87 v 98 · race median 94 (today 96)
GREAT ACCLAIM · 1 meeting≈ 6.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Sep 25 · 7f · Good — finished 16th vs 2nd, 9.2L behind · OR 86 v 97 · race median 95 (today 96)
TWO TRIBES · 1 meeting≈ 4.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 1st, 1.3L behind · OR 85 v 90 · race median 94 (today 96)
AALTO (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 12.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 18th, 14.35L ahead · OR 85 v 91 · race median 94 (today 96)
BACK IN BLACK (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 27.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 May 26 · 7f135y · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 3rd, 27.8L behind · OR 86 v 94 · race median 88 (today 96)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 7 rival(s) met (-2.8L adj, 11 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs MEZCALA (read through LIR SPECIALE, TALIS EVOLVERE, ON THE RIVER, CLASSIC) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EXTREMELY ZAIN (FR) (read through LIR SPECIALE, MIRABEAU, DARKNESS) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAYTARR (read through NOSTRUM, ANGEL HUNTER, DOSMAN, CHALK MOUNTAIN) ≈ -1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PHILANTHROPIST (read through CRIMSON SPIRIT, NORTHERN EXPRESS, NOSTRUM, MISTER BLUEBIRD) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (85 today vs 82)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, shaken up 2f out, no extra final ½f”
#14 GOLDEN MIND (IRE) MID
DRAW 14 · OR 102 · Ryan Sexton / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 130 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
91 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
15th on the figures, 20pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; solid late gains (9th of 16 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
91 · ranked #15 here · career best 110
Official mark (OR)
102 · last won off 99
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 23 tries · beats market expectation (3.24)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s)
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.75% (holds late)
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
23rdClass 2 · 7f · rated 858thClass 1 · 7f · rated 784thClass 2 · 7f · rated 1102ndClass 2 · 7f22y · rated 1107thClass 2 · 7f · rated 71
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GOLDEN MIND (IRE)best 110needs 107–1112025-02-12 · TFR 103 · 6f · Slow · C22025-03-08 · TFR 69 · 7f35y · Std/Slow · C12025-03-26 · TFR 97 · 7f · Std · C22025-04-18 · TFR 90 · 6f · Std · C22025-06-06 · TFR 110 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C22025-06-21 · TFR 82 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-07-26 · TFR 104 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-09 · TFR 99 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-21 · TFR 106 · 7f13y · Slow · C22025-08-30 · TFR 90 · 7f128y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-28 · TFR 99 · 7f13y · Slow · C22025-10-18 · TFR 81 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22025-11-08 · TFR 108 · 6f · Heavy · C22026-03-18 · TFR 71 · 7f · Slow · C22026-04-04 · TFR 110 · 7f15y · Gd/Sft · C22026-05-09 · TFR 110 · 7f · Good · C22026-06-06 · TFR 78 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C12026-06-18 · TFR 85 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C212 Feb 2518 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot—1/911.1%4.77
In fields of 16+—4/478.5%2.11
Above their last winning mark—18/12714.2%1.47
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 111 at/around today's trip, clears the ~107.0 demand
The rider
Ryan Sexton · last 14 days: 0/11 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n9) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields16th of 16
-0.38 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 16
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 16
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length15th of 16
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Ascot7fGd/Frm223rd10396Slow early38.9 -0.78103.0-0.01
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft18th——True41.2 -0.38101.0+0.05
9 May 26Ascot7fGood24th10395True40.0 -0.1797.6-0.07
4 Apr 26Musselburgh7f15yGd/Sft22nd10289Fast early39.1 +0.05101.5+0.55
18 Mar 26Kempton Park7fSlow27th10299True39.5 -1.04103.7+0.25
8 Nov 25Doncaster6fHeavy21st9991True38.1 +0.0297.7+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.86par2f+1.03slow3f+1.17slow4f+1.18slow5f+1.40slow6f+1.46par7f+1.86slow
Timed runs 2025-11-08 to 2026-06-18. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
GREAT ACCLAIM · 3 meetings≈ 4.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 23rd vs 3rd, 10.6L behind · OR 103 v 100 · race median 96 (today 96)
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 3 meetings≈ 2.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
8 Nov 25 · 6f · Heavy — finished 1st vs 16th, 10.85L ahead · OR 99 v 91 · race median 91 (today 96)
COMPLETELY RANDOM · 2 meetings≈ 5.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 4th vs 10th, 3.5L ahead · OR 103 v 100 · race median 95 (today 96)
AALTO (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 6.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 4th vs 9th, 2.75L ahead · OR 103 v 89 · race median 95 (today 96)
SWORD · 2 meetings≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
21 Aug 25 · 7f14y · Slow — finished 1st vs 14th, 11.85L ahead · OR 98 v 87 · race median 94 (today 96)
ARCTIC DAWN · 1 meeting≈ 0.6L ahead on today's terms · confirms
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 23rd vs 24th, 0.1L ahead · OR 103 v 100 · race median 96 (today 96)
MEZCALA · 1 meeting≈ 8.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 23rd vs 1st, 11.2L behind · OR 103 v 94 · race median 96 (today 96)
TWO TRIBES · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 1st, 2.55L behind · OR 100 v 90 · race median 94 (today 96)
Read through a common rival
vs ATA RANGI (IRE) (read through STORM FREE, NOSTRUM, PERSUASION, CERULEAN BAY) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BACK IN BLACK (IRE) (read through ELARAK, NIKOVO, OLIVER SHOW, CERULEAN BAY) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAYTARR (read through HICKORY, NOSTRUM, STORM STAR, COLOMBIER) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PHILANTHROPIST (read through NOSTRUM, SHIPLAKE, OLIVER SHOW, NORTHERN EXPRESS) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (102 today vs 99)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayProven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 3.24)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“rear, under pressure under 3f out, never dangerous”
#15 PHILANTHROPIST MID
DRAW 17 · OR 85 · Silvestre De Sousa / James Fanshawe
MARKET 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
90.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
16th on the figures, 20.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
90.7 · ranked #16 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · in line with the market (1.0)
Days since last run
30
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.73% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 90 last run (NEWMARKET · 25 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 18% with first-time gear (A/E 1.38)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 7f · rated 873rdClass 3 · 7f · rated 921stClass 4 · 7f · rated 937thClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 866thClass 5 · 1m · rated 87
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PHILANTHROPISTneeds 107–111best 932025-04-08 · TFR 87 · 7f13y · Std · C42025-05-09 · TFR 86 · 7f · Firm · C22025-06-06 · TFR 87 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-27 · TFR 88 · 1m · Good · C42025-08-17 · TFR 92 · 7f13y · Std · C42025-08-28 · TFR 89 · 7f13y · Std · C42025-09-24 · TFR 90 · 7f · Slow · C42025-10-29 · TFR 87 · 1m · Std · C52026-03-27 · TFR 86 · 7f13y · Std · C42026-04-21 · TFR 93 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-22 · TFR 92 · 7f · Good · C32026-06-25 · TFR 87 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C38 Apr 2525 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Fanshawe · 828 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦41/28614.3%1.0418/8720.7%1.28
On turf33/28911.4%0.826/10824.1%1.24
At this time of year (Q3)38/24615.4%0.978/3125.8%1.17
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/229.1%1.040/70.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/283.6%0.550/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 94 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
Silvestre De Sousa · last 14 days: 2/24 · at Ascot: A/E 0.83 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 16
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 16
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 16
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length14th of 16
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm34th8590True40.1 -0.1499.3+0.48
22 May 26Goodwood7fGood33rd8587.5True39.6 -0.01102.4+0.17
21 Apr 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm41st8277True42.3 +0.27106.3+0.44
27 Mar 26Newcastle7f14yStd47th8379Fast early40.0 +0.0999.3+0.27
29 Oct 25Kempton Park1mStd56th8481Slow early40.6 -0.20109.0+0.07
24 Sep 25Kempton Park7fSlow44th8581.5True40.5 +0.19106.1+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.70slow2f+0.51fast3f+0.49par4f+0.48par5f+0.36par6f+0.40slow7f+0.60par
Timed runs 2025-09-24 to 2026-06-25. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AALTO (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L behind on today's terms · reverses
25 Jun 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 2nd, 2L behind · OR 85 v 85 · race median 90 (today 96)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ARCTIC DAWN (read through SUPERPOSITION, CRIMSON SPIRIT, BRASIL POWER, CANDONOMORE) ≈ +3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAYTARR (read through NOSTRUM, DARK TORNADO, GORGEOUS MR GEORGE, GRABAJABBA) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AKKADIAN THUNDER (read through OLIVER SHOW, NORTHERN EXPRESS, NOSTRUM, SOLAR ACLAIM) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LEADMAN (read through CRIMSON SPIRIT, NORTHERN EXPRESS, NOSTRUM, KISSKODI) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (85 today vs 82)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“in touch, effort 2f out, took third inside final 1f, not quicken late on”
#16 LEADMAN HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 9 · OR 84 · Jack Doughty / David O'Meara
MARKET 65 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
89.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
17th on the figures, 21.3pts off the top, proven on the ground; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
89.7 · ranked #17 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
84 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 21 tries · below market expectation (0.84)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.23% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 11lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 96 vs 85 last run (NEWMARKET · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 3 · 7f · rated 891stClass 4 · 7f · rated 936thClass 4 · 7f · rated 8717thClass 4 · 7f · rated 662ndClass 4 · 7f · rated 93
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LEADMANneeds 107–111best 962025-05-02 · TFR 87 · 7f13y · Std · C42025-05-17 · TFR 81 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-11 · TFR 96 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-30 · TFR 64 · 7f · Good · C32025-08-16 · TFR 96 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-21 · TFR 88 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-06 · TFR 78 · 7f · Good · C22025-09-26 · TFR 85 · 6f211y · Good · C32025-09-27 · TFR 88 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-10-14 · TFR 85 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C32026-04-18 · TFR 81 · 7f · Good · C42026-05-01 · TFR 57 · 7f · Good · C22026-05-15 · TFR 93 · 7f · Good · C42026-05-23 · TFR 66 · 7f · Good · C42026-06-12 · TFR 87 · 7f · Good · C42026-06-20 · TFR 93 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-11 · TFR 89 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32 May 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2033 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/1672.4%0.421/551.8%0.31
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/817.4%0.54
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.918/1475.4%0.59
Over 7-8f trips90/72812.4%1.0215/2077.2%0.73
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)3/694.3%0.720/90.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 96 is below the ~107.0 the race demands
The rider
Jack Doughty · last 14 days: 0/19 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 1.65 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 96 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 16
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph15th of 16
+0.64s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed12th of 16
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 16
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm35th8485True41.7 +0.55105.9+0.78
20 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm41st8283—40.7 +0.06103.1+0.28
12 Jun 26York7fGood46th8377.5True40.2 +0.53101.5+0.65
23 May 26York7fGood417th8475.5—40.7 +0.5796.0+1.16
15 May 26York7fGood42nd8078True39.8 -0.3399.0+0.36
1 May 26Newmarket7fGood26th8390True39.7 -0.3595.8+0.61
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.70very slow2f+0.71very slow3f+0.60slow4f+0.55par5f+0.47fast6f+0.40fast7f+0.45very fast
Timed runs 2026-05-01 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SWORD · 3 meetings≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 6th, 0.1L ahead · OR 84 v 85 · race median 85 (today 96)
AALTO (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms
27 Sep 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 11th, 4.2L ahead · OR 89 v 94 · race median 93 (today 96)
GREAT ACCLAIM · 2 meetings≈ 3.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Sep 25 · 7f · Good — finished 12th vs 2nd, 8L behind · OR 91 v 97 · race median 95 (today 96)
COMPLETELY RANDOM · 1 meeting≈ 5.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
27 Sep 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 7th, 0.3L behind · OR 89 v 96 · race median 93 (today 96)
TWO TRIBES · 1 meeting · n/a
11 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 2.25L ahead · OR 83 v 89 · race median 89 (today 96) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
AKKADIAN THUNDER · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
6 Sep 25 · 7f · Good — finished 12th vs 9th, 1.95L behind · OR 91 v 97 · race median 95 (today 96)
Read through a common rival
vs MEZCALA (read through ELARAK, TALIS EVOLVERE, LIR SPECIALE, DANCE IN THE STORM) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BACK IN BLACK (IRE) (read through ELARAK, NIKOVO, BILLYJOH, WHIP CRACKER) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ATA RANGI (IRE) (read through STORM FREE, NOSTRUM, IT JUST TAKES TIME, TALIS EVOLVERE) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PHILANTHROPIST (read through CRIMSON SPIRIT, NORTHERN EXPRESS, NOSTRUM, KISSKODI) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayLost roughly 3.5 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, progress over 1f out, forced to switch final 1f, never on terms”