BUILT 12:48 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 1-3
33
33.3%
57.6%
42.4%
60.6%
middle (9-12f)
41
41.5%
70.7%
39%
70.7%
non-handicaps
65
35.4%
55.4%
35.4%
63.1%
mid fields (8-11)
69
21.7%
46.4%
20.3%
46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, LAMBOURN (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.2 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here spend about 49% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, MINNIE HAUK (IRE) leads on 122, 0pts clear of BENVENUTO CELLINI (IRE) — runs the dominant winning style here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is KALPANA — concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls. The market sees it differently, making CALANDAGAN (IRE) the 37% favourite — a horse our figures rate 5th.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
MINNIE HAUK (IRE)
OR · W. M. Lordan / Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
MARKET drifting 7.8 → 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
122.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayThe top rating in this field (122.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 9
BENVENUTO CELLINI (IRE)
OR · Ryan Moore / Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
122.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #2 in this field (122.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
GOLIATH (GER)
OR · Christophe Soumillon / Francis-Henri Graffard, France
MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
121.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #3 in this field (121.0)A course winner (1 from 3 here)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1KALPANAnet +10race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, proven on the going
2MINNIE HAUK (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
3BENVENUTO CELLINI (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, FormLab watch flag
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. KALPANA is the one to beat it — an edge MINNIE HAUK (IRE) lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
KALPANA FIGURE #4
Andrew Balding's runners in Class 1-3 company win 18.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Andrew Balding's runners kept to the same class win 24.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 50% · front-runners 21% (29 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, testing uphill finish. Winners’ energy signature: 48.99% spent early (band 48.03–50.06%, 42 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.52s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.0 of 9, field average 5.0).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: MINNIE HAUK (IRE) is 2/2 on softer ground · BENVENUTO CELLINI (IRE) is 1/2 on softer ground · GOLIATH (GER) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CALANDAGAN (IRE)HELD-UP48.2%105.0a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GOLIATH (GER)MID50.0%101.6solid late gains (6th of 7 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LAMBOURN (IRE)FRONT49.9%103.2the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
MASQUERADE BALL (JPN)———-
WURTTEMBERG (JPN)———-
KALPANAPROMINENT48.8%105.7concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
MINNIE HAUK (IRE)PROMINENT48.7%104.6just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
ACTION (IRE)MID49.3%100.1one-paced late — 7th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
BENVENUTO CELLINI (IRE)MID48.8%103.6a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
LAMBOURN (IRE)FRONTtypically ~3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
MINNIE HAUK (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
KALPANAPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
measured on their own past openings, LAMBOURN (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.2 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1MINNIE HAUK (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR · W. M. Lordan / Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
MARKET drifting 7.8 → 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
122.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, runs the dominant winning style here; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
122.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 122
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.6)
Days since last run
38
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 104.61% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland · 1377 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot ✦13/8415.5%1.137/3221.9%1.23
Over 11f+ trips ✦58/22625.7%1.2212/5024.0%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)118/47524.8%1.098/6212.9%0.57
In fields of 8-1199/44122.4%1.1218/12714.2%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 122 at/around today's trip, clears the ~122.0 demand
The rider
W. M. Lordan · last 14 days: 5/31· at Ascot: A/E 0.78 (n44)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n544)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.60 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
-0.05s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 4
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 7
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot1m1f212yGd/Frm12nd——True40.1 +0.72102.5-0.06
21 Aug 25York1m3f188yGd/Frm11st——True39.5 +0.84103.5+0.00
6 Jun 25Epsom Downs1m4fGd/Sft11st——True39.7 +0.67109.8-0.07
7 May 25Chester1m3f75yGood11st———37.2 +0.16102.7-0.08
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-05-07 to 2026-06-17. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayThe top rating in this field (122.0)Improving fast — last run rated 122, 9pts above his recent average of 112.3Only 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 3 wins from 29 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“quickly away, chased leaders 3f, settled in touch after, effort early in straight, every chance over 1f out, left behind by winner”
#2BENVENUTO CELLINI (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 9 · OR · Ryan Moore / Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
122.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), flagged on our watch list; a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
122.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 122
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.55)
Days since last run
27
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.64% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland · 1377 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot ✦13/8415.5%1.137/3221.9%1.23
Over 11f+ trips ✦58/22625.7%1.2212/5024.0%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)118/47524.8%1.098/6212.9%0.57
In fields of 8-1199/44122.4%1.1218/12714.2%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 122 at/around today's trip, clears the ~122.0 demand
The rider
Ryan Moore · last 14 days: 2/20· at Ascot: A/E 1.05 (n157)· with this yard: A/E 1.05 (n665)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.48 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
103.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m4fSoft1———True36.4 +0.53106.7+0.79—
6 May 26Chester1m4f63yGood11st——True39.6 +0.84105.3+0.00
25 Oct 25Doncaster1mHeavy13rd——True37.2 +0.0798.9-0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f—2f—3f—4f—5f—6f—7f—1m—1m 1f—1m 2f—1m 3f—1m 4f—
Timed runs 2025-10-25 to 2026-06-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
28 Jun 26 · 1m4f · Good — finished 1st vs 7th, 27.5L ahead
THIN [n=3 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+15.9L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #2 in this field (122.0)Improving fast — last run rated 122, 20pts above his recent average of 102.0Only 3 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 3 wins from 29 runsHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“rear, headway after 4f, loomed up early in straight, went on entering final 1f, edged right, driven out”
#3GOLIATH (GER)MID
DRAW 5 · OR · Christophe Soumillon / Francis-Henri Graffard, France
MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
121.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 1pts off the top, proven on the ground; solid late gains (6th of 7 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
121.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 127
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (3.86)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.59% (holds late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Timed runs 2024-06-22 to 2026-06-20. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
20 Jun 26 · 1m3f211y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 1.75L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+7.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #3 in this field (121.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceA course winner (1 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“missed break, held up, headway 2f out, every chance final 1f, kept on”
#4KALPANAPROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR · C. T. Keane / Andrew Balding
MARKET backed 15.5 → 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
121.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 1pts off the top, backed since the morning; concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
121.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 123
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 78
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.17)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.73% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 15% with first-time gear (A/E 1.14)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2437 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot14/12611.1%0.985/4112.2%1.48
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1270/29323.9%1.22
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 123 at/around today's trip, clears the ~122.0 demand
The rider
C. T. Keane · last 14 days: 8/54· at Ascot: A/E 0.94 (n68)· with this yard: A/E 1.65 (n38)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.75 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
-0.08s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
105.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 7
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ascot1m3f211yGd/Frm12nd——True40.1 -0.01100.9-0.02
16 May 26Newbury1m4fGood11st——Fast early41.0 +1.77104.5-0.14
18 Oct 25Ascot1m3f211yGd/Frm11st——Slow early40.9 +0.82110.5+0.00
Timed runs 2024-10-19 to 2026-06-20. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
20 Jun 26 · 1m3f211y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 11th, 19.1L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+7.3L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayStable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.54 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, went on 2f out, tackled entering final 1f, worn down close home”
#5CALANDAGAN (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR · Mickael Barzalona / Francis-Henri Graffard, France
MARKET 2.68 · the market rates it a 37% chance
104.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 17.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
104.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 133
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.24)
Days since last run
49
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.95% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Francis-Henri Graffard, France
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 133 at/around today's trip, clears the ~122.0 demand
The rider
Mickael Barzalona · at Ascot: A/E 0.88 (n38)· with this yard: A/E 0.55 (n20)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.52 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.35s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
105.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m4fGd/Sft14th——True35.3 -0.9794.0+0.16
18 Oct 25Ascot1m1f212yGd/Frm11st——True40.1 +1.57105.8+0.17
26 Jul 25Ascot1m3f211yGd/Frm11st——True—108.9—
6 Jun 25Epsom Downs1m4fGd/Sft12nd——True40.6 +0.93112.0+0.51
19 Oct 24Ascot1m2fSoft (Heavy In Places)—2nd——True39.7 +0.15100.1+0.35
21 Aug 24York1m2f56yGd/Frm12nd——True41.7 +0.94108.9+0.57
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2024-08-21 to 2026-06-06. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
6 Jun 26 · 1m4f · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 3rd, 26L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-14.4L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“held up, shaken up entering straight, soon beaten”
#6LAMBOURN (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 2 · OR · William Buick / Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
MARKET 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
100.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 21.3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
100.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 121
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.71)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland · 1377 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot ✦13/8415.5%1.137/3221.9%1.23
Over 11f+ trips ✦58/22625.7%1.2212/5024.0%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)118/47524.8%1.098/6212.9%0.57
In fields of 8-1199/44122.4%1.1218/12714.2%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 121 is below the ~122.0 the race demands
The rider
William Buick · last 14 days: 10/24· at Ascot: A/E 0.74 (n199)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n7)· notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.25 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 7
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ascot1m3f211yGd/Frm111th——True40.8 +0.6594.6+0.06
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m4fGd/Sft13rd——True36.8 +0.51101.0+0.05
8 May 26Chester1m2f70yGood11st——Slow early40.9 +0.62107.2+0.04
Timed runs 2025-06-07 to 2026-06-20. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
6 Jun 26 · 1m4f · Gd/Sft — finished 3rd vs 4th, 26L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-3.5L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayStable cold this week — 3 wins from 29 runsBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-11 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“led, headed around 3f out, dropped away”
#7ACTION (IRE)MID
DRAW 8 · OR · Sean Levey / Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
MARKET drifting 270 → 340 · the market rates it a 0% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
76FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 46pts off the top, fit and race-ready; one-paced late — 7th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland · 1377 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot ✦13/8415.5%1.137/3221.9%1.23
Over 11f+ trips ✦58/22625.7%1.2212/5024.0%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)118/47524.8%1.098/6212.9%0.57
In fields of 8-1199/44122.4%1.1218/12714.2%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 116 is below the ~122.0 the race demands
The rider
Sean Levey · last 14 days: 6/38· at Ascot: A/E 1.07 (n103)· with this yard: A/E 1.99 (n15)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 34.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 7
6.90 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m4fSoft112th——True34.3 -1.6292.1+0.14
14 May 26York1m2f56yGood12nd——True37.9 -0.37101.7+0.00
Timed runs 2025-09-27 to 2026-06-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
28 Jun 26 · 1m4f · Good — finished 7th vs 1st, 27.5L behind
THIN [n=3 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-15.9L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 3 wins from 29 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“missed break, led, under pressure early, led after 1f, headed entering straight, weakened”
#8MASQUERADE BALL (JPN)
DRAW 4 · OR · Christophe Lemaire / Takahisa Tezuka, Japan
MARKET drifting 4.9 → 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Prominent in the betting; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
The rider
Christophe Lemaire · last 14 days: 0/1
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
#9WURTTEMBERG (JPN)
DRAW 3 · OR · Oisin Murphy / Hiroshi Miyamoto, Japan
MARKET drifting 60 → 70 · the market rates it a 1% chance
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Little measured either way — unexposed on our reads.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 18/71· at Ascot: A/E 1.1 (n210)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure