FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ascot · 16:10
Class 4 · 1m3f211y · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 76
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 14 RUNNERS · 15 PROFILED IN DEPTH
BUILT 12:48 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 47225%58.3%29.2%62.5%
middle (9-12f)4141.5%70.7%39%70.7%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, TARITINO (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.2 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (73% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (54% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, AKHO MEZZNA (FR) leads on 88, 1pts clear of MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE) — ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form — though that figure was earned over a different trip. The case against the top pick: a yard out of form. The shape danger is MUDITA (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market is line-ball — it just prefers MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE) at 14% to our top pick.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 5
AKHO MEZZNA (FR)
OR 79 · William Buick / Jack Jones
MARKET drifting 4.5 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
88.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−figure earned over 9.9/9.9/8.1f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested here)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE)
OR 79 · Marco Ghiani / Emma Lavelle
MARKET 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance
87.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
PRIMO LARA (IRE)
OR 79 · Saffie Osborne / Jane Chapple-Hyam
MARKET backed 14 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (86.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.82x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1TARITINO (IRE)net +10race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup
2PRIMO LARA (IRE)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency
3AKHO MEZZNA (FR)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, fits the winner profile on recency, ahead of rivals met on collateral form − yard cold
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
AKHO MEZZNA (FR) carries a yard out of form. TARITINO (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge AKHO MEZZNA (FR) lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
OHARA  FIGURE #6
Eve Johnson Houghton's runners in Class 4-5 company win 15.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Eve Johnson Houghton's runners at this time of year (Q3) win 19.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 50% · front-runners 21% (29 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, testing uphill finish. Winners’ energy signature: 48.99% spent early (band 48.03–50.06%, 42 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.52s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
26 similar races at ASCOT, 11.0-13.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 2-6, all months, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (73% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (54% from the first three favourites). 27% won last time out, 27% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
35% 4yo
31% 3yo
27% 5yo
Last ran
62% 15-45d
15% 46-90d
12% within 14d
Market
46% 4th+ in the market
42% favourite
12% 3rd favourite
LTO form
42% unplaced last time
27% won last time
27% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 14 runners · stalls 1–14
1234567891011121314
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 11.5 of 14, field average 7.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: AKHO MEZZNA (FR) is 1/2 on softer ground · MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · PRIMO LARA (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
HENGEST MID 48.5% 106.8 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
PRIMO LARA (IRE) MID 49.1% 103.2 a genuine turn of foot — 13th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE) MID 48.5% 105.6 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
TARITINO (IRE) PROMINENT 49.3% 103.3 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
PATROL (IRE) HELD-UP 49.6% 101.5 solid late gains (14th of 15 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
TAILORMAN (FR) MID 49.2% 103.8 a genuine turn of foot — 10th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
OASIS SUNRISE (IRE) MID 49.1% 104.3 a genuine turn of foot — 7th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BINT AL DAAR MID 47.6% 106.8 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
AKHO MEZZNA (FR) MID 48.6% 103.7 a genuine turn of foot — 11th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
OHARA MID 48.4% 104.2 a genuine turn of foot — 8th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
EDWIN HUBBLE (IRE) MID 47.9% 106.8 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
GREEN FALCON MID 47.8% 104.8 a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
MUDITA (IRE) MID 46.4% 107.8 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
SIR GRIFLET (IRE) PROMINENT 50.3% 98.7 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
A DAUGHTERS LOVE HELD-UP 48.8% 104.1 a genuine turn of foot — 9th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
TARITINO (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
SIR GRIFLET (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
measured on their own past openings, TARITINO (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.2 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 AKHO MEZZNA (FR) MID
DRAW 5 · OR 79 · William Buick / Jack Jones
MARKET drifting 4.5 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
88.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
88.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 88 · earned over 9.9/9.9/8.1f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
79 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.74% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (SANDOWN PARK 9th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 882ndClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 856thClass 4 · 1m22y · rated 758thClass 4 · 1m · rated 721stClass 4 · 7f · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for AKHO MEZZNA (FR)best 88needs 86–882025-07-26 · TFR 76 · 6f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-08-16 · TFR 75 · 7f · Firm · C3 · off-trip2025-09-04 · TFR 71 · 7f · Std · C5 · off-trip2025-10-02 · TFR 79 · 6f213y · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2026-04-14 · TFR 72 · 1m · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-05-11 · TFR 75 · 1m31y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2026-06-12 · TFR 85 · 1m1f209y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-07-04 · TFR 88 · 1m1f209y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip26 Jul 254 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Jones · 583 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, as an exposed handicapper
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf17/2038.4%0.80/670.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)10/1506.7%0.681/234.3%0.41
Over 11f+ trips7/5911.9%0.751/166.2%0.49
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2338.6%0.764/656.2%0.55
In fields of 12-158/1037.8%0.872/345.9%0.69
In Class 4-5 company ✦20/2478.1%0.747/798.9%0.72
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 86 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~86.0 demand here
The rider
William Buick · last 14 days: 10/24 · at Ascot: A/E 0.74 (n199) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 15
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 15
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 15
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length12th of 15
6.97 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Sandown Park1m1f209yGd/Frm42nd7778True37.5 -0.15104.0+0.21
12 Jun 26Sandown Park1m1f209yGood42nd7677.5Slow early37.0 -0.19105.4+0.16
11 May 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm46th7877True39.7 -0.54103.0+0.08
14 Apr 26Newmarket1mGood48th8082.5True39.2 +0.0996.4+0.40
2 Oct 25Salisbury6f213yGd/Sft41st——Slow early39.0 +1.26109.7+0.47
4 Sep 25Lingfield7fStd54th——True40.5 +0.31103.9+0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.27par2f+0.20par3f+0.24slow4f+0.21slow5f+0.24slow6f+0.56fast7f+0.32par1m+0.42par1m 1f+0.55par1m 2f+0.31fast
Timed runs 2025-09-04 to 2026-07-04. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
OHARA · 2 meetings≈ 2.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Jun 26 · 1m1f209y · Good — finished 2nd vs 8th, 5.8L ahead · OR 76 v 77 · race median 78 (today 76)
EDWIN HUBBLE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Jun 26 · 1m1f209y · Good — finished 2nd vs 7th, 4.3L ahead · OR 76 v 77 · race median 78 (today 76)
Read through a common rival
vs MUDITA (IRE) (read through MIDNIGHT RODEO, BARBURY BOY) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Rating earned over 9.9/9.9/8.1f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 11 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“handy, shaken up 3f out, not quicken 2f out, kept on final 1f”
#2 MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 79 · Marco Ghiani / Emma Lavelle
MARKET 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
87.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, prominent in the betting; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · below market expectation (0.88)
Days since last run
36
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s)
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.59% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 871stClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 847thClass 5 · 1m3f · rated 763rdClass 4 · 1m3f · rated 805thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE)best 87needs 86–882025-05-02 · TFR 76 · 1m1f198y · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-05-27 · TFR 59 · 1m2f · Good · C52025-06-20 · TFR 80 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-10 · TFR 82 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-09 · TFR 80 · 1m2f99y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-28 · TFR 75 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-24 · TFR 80 · 1m3f · Slow · C42026-05-04 · TFR 76 · 1m3f · Slow · C52026-05-23 · TFR 84 · 1m4f · Good · C42026-06-19 · TFR 87 · 1m4f · Good · C42 May 2519 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Emma Lavelle · 132 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot1/520.0%3.42—
At this time of year (Q3)6/3815.8%1.331/616.7%1.74
On turf10/7313.7%1.384/2416.7%1.33
In Class 4-5 company11/6516.9%1.513/2213.6%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/5920.3%1.622/1711.8%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 12-15 (small sample)3/2512.0%1.70/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Marco Ghiani · last 14 days: 6/39 · at Ascot: A/E 1.04 (n26) · with this yard: A/E 3.84 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 15
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 15
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 15
105.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 15
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Goodwood1m4fGood42nd7876—38.2 +0.00106.4+0.00
23 May 26Salisbury1m4fGood41st7476.5—37.4 +0.29107.7+0.02
4 May 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow57th7572True37.5 -0.41104.5+0.16
24 Sep 25Kempton Park1m3fSlow43rd7575True39.1 -0.11106.3+0.80
28 Aug 25Newbury1m2fGd/Frm45th7676True39.3 +0.25104.3-0.04
9 Aug 25Haydock Park1m2f100yGd/Frm51st7270.5True38.8 +0.28104.3+0.17
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.17 2f+0.24 3f+0.76 4f+0.76 5f+1.09 6f+1.61 7f+1.23 1m+0.33 1m 1f+0.06 1m 2f+0.01 1m 3f+0.14 1m 4f+0.09 
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs HENGEST (read through BIG BEAR HUG, CAPH STAR) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PATROL (IRE) (read through ONE MILLION DREAMS, ANALOGICAL, DUST COVER, MINHAD) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OASIS SUNRISE (IRE) (read through GALAXY WONDER, EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PRIMO LARA (IRE) (read through GALAXY WONDER, CAPH STAR, STAR TIME, DANCING TIGER) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 74)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“chased leader, led 2f out, headed over 1f out, kept on”
#3 PRIMO LARA (IRE) MID DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 4 · OR 79 · Saffie Osborne / Jane Chapple-Hyam
MARKET backed 14 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 2pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; a genuine turn of foot — 13th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.17% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 31 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 72 last run (WOLVERHAMPTON · 6 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 1m1f110y · rated 865thClass 5 · 1m1f198y · rated 762ndClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 816thClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 689thClass 4 · 1m1f110y · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PRIMO LARA (IRE)best 96needs 86–882025-05-18 · TFR 40 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-28 · TFR 86 · 1m3f99y · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-02 · TFR 86 · 1m1f11y · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-08-24 · TFR 48 · 1m1f207y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-09-16 · TFR 82 · 1m2f22y · Good · C42025-10-23 · TFR 63 · 1m3f22y · Std · C42026-04-27 · TFR 75 · 1m1f103y · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-05-18 · TFR 68 · 1m2f · Good · C52026-06-03 · TFR 81 · 1m2f51y · Good · C52026-06-14 · TFR 76 · 1m1f200y · Good · C5 · off-trip2026-07-06 · TFR 86 · 1m1f103y · Std · C5 · off-trip18 May 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jane Chapple-Hyam · 534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark10/5020.0%1.325/2420.8%1.59
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-155/875.7%0.642/306.7%0.63
At this time of year (Q3)14/13910.1%0.893/2114.3%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)3/2313.0%1.840/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 96 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Saffie Osborne · last 14 days: 4/35 · at Ascot: A/E 1.82 (n92) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields15th of 15
-0.25 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 15
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed13th of 15
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 15
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd51st7572Slow early39.1 -0.06107.6+0.04
14 Jun 26Salisbury1m1f201yGood55th7668.5True37.3 +0.02104.4+0.40
3 Jun 26Nottingham1m2f50yGood52nd7272True37.7 +0.02104.1+0.45
18 May 26Lingfield1m2fGood56th7570True38.0 -0.32103.1+0.00
27 Apr 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd49th7776Fast early38.0 -0.5599.9+0.26
23 Oct 25Southwell1m3f23yStd49th8076.5True37.0 -0.6299.9+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.18fast2f+0.27slow3f+0.34very slow4f+0.26slow5f+0.26slow6f+0.23par7f+0.21fast1m+0.08fast1m 1fledfast
Timed runs 2025-10-23 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs PATROL (IRE) (read through SOMETHING SPLENDID, EDUCATOR, CRIMINAL, HIS FINEST HOUR) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BINT AL DAAR (read through CELESTIAS COMET, GINCIDENT, KING'S CODE, PLEASANT MAN) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TARITINO (IRE) (read through ABANDO, OMAN, PAPAGEI) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OASIS SUNRISE (IRE) (read through PLEASANT MAN, GALAXY WONDER) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (86.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.82x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“held up, going well when had to wait for gap under 3f out, ridden when switched over 1f out, kept on, never on terms”
#4 PATROL (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 10 · OR 76 · David Egan / Dylan Cunha
MARKET 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
85.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 3pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.18)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.49% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.51)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 854thClass 4 · 1m3f110y · rated 612ndClass 5 · 1m4f · rated 872ndClass 5 · 1m4f88y · rated 838thClass 4 · 1m1f110y · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PATROL (IRE)best 87needs 86–882025-02-03 · TFR 73 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C52025-03-15 · TFR 79 · 1m4f13y · Std · C52025-04-06 · TFR 84 · 1m4f13y · Std · C42025-06-07 · TFR 76 · 1m2f18y · Soft · C22025-06-20 · TFR 82 · 1m4f · Good · C42025-07-05 · TFR 84 · 1m1f209y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-09-14 · TFR 81 · 1m2f44y · Good · C42025-10-06 · TFR 83 · 1m4f51y · Std · C42025-10-10 · TFR 82 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C22025-10-29 · TFR 73 · 1m4f · Std · C42025-11-08 · TFR 78 · 1m6f · Slow · C4 · off-trip2026-03-30 · TFR 75 · 1m1f103y · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-04-20 · TFR 83 · 1m4f99y · Std · C52026-05-15 · TFR 87 · 1m4f · Good · C52026-06-11 · TFR 61 · 1m3f103y · Soft · C42026-07-17 · TFR 85 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C43 Feb 2517 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Dylan Cunha · 820 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days15/13211.4%0.8611/5221.2%1.71
Above their last winning mark ✦26/15416.9%1.1110/7014.3%1.25
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)23/20311.3%0.991/342.9%0.32
On turf41/35411.6%1.0812/1468.2%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/1711.8%2.40/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 7/30 · at Ascot: A/E 0.34 (n138) · with this yard: A/E 0.37 (n49)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 15
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 15
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed14th of 15
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 15
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jul 26Newmarket1m4fGd/Frm43rd78——38.8 +0.3999.3+0.00—
11 Jun 26Yarmouth1m3f104ySoft44th7876True37.3 +0.1999.7+0.11
15 May 26Newbury1m4fGood52nd7472Fast early38.6 +0.11100.4+0.20
20 Apr 26Newcastle1m4f98yStd52nd7472.5True38.7 +0.50103.7+0.12
30 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd48th7674.5True38.3 -0.37104.3+0.25
8 Nov 25Wolverhampton1m6fSlow45th7878.5True36.8 -0.27101.5+0.05
Timed runs 2025-11-08 to 2026-07-17. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs TAILORMAN (FR) (read through PERCY JONES, SIMIYANN, CURRAN, FRANCESCO BARACCA) ≈ +5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TARITINO (IRE) (read through PERCY JONES, CURRAN, ARCTURUS FLAME, CRYSTAL MARINER) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PRIMO LARA (IRE) (read through SOMETHING SPLENDID, EDUCATOR, CRIMINAL, HIS FINEST HOUR) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HENGEST (read through ATLANTIC SUNSET, PLEASANT MAN, FURTHER MEASURE) ≈ -3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 12 runsRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“held up, pushed along 3f out, no response”
#5 TARITINO (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 14 · OR 77 · Taylor Fisher / Joe Tickle
MARKET 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (2.97)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.3s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.3% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 72 last run (CHESTER · 27 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 1m4f66y · rated 831stClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 812ndClass 5 · 1m6f · rated 738thClass 4 · 2m · rated 644thClass 5 · 1m6f · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TARITINO (IRE)needs 86–88best 832025-06-20 · TFR 66 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-12 · TFR 45 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-05 · TFR 76 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-29 · TFR 73 · 1m6f44y · Soft · C5 · off-trip2025-09-26 · TFR 72 · 1m6f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-10-12 · TFR 64 · 2m · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2026-06-05 · TFR 73 · 1m6f · Good · C5 · off-trip2026-06-14 · TFR 81 · 1m4f · Good · C42026-06-27 · TFR 83 · 1m4f64y · Good · C520 Jun 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Joe Tickle · 159 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 11f+ trips7/4714.9%1.493/1030.0%4.18
In Class 4-5 company4/498.2%1.363/1225.0%2.35
At this time of year (Q3)10/8212.2%1.412/922.2%2.2
On turf14/10813.0%1.295/2718.5%1.76
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/657.7%0.91/128.3%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-150/280.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Taylor Fisher · last 14 days: 3/21 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n6) · with this yard: A/E 1.48 (n108)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 15
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 15
-0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 6
Finish · closing speed12th of 15
103.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 15
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chester1m4f63yGood51st7372True39.5 +0.73108.8+0.07
14 Jun 26Salisbury1m4fGood41st6771.5True37.1 +0.09104.8+0.11
5 Jun 26Bath1m6fGood52nd6668True37.6 -0.11101.0+0.14
26 Sep 25Haydock Park1m6fGood54th6964True36.8 +0.00102.9+0.17
5 Aug 25Newbury1m4fGd/Frm52nd7071.5Slow early40.0 -0.02113.6-0.29
12 Jul 25Salisbury1m4fGd/Frm45th7278Fast early40.6 +0.0088.8-0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.11par2f+0.33slow3f+0.28slow4f+0.36slow5f+0.36par6f+0.27slow7f+0.30slow1m+0.27par1m 1f+0.28fast1m 2f+0.19very fast1m 3fledvery fast1m 4fledfast
Timed runs 2025-07-12 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BINT AL DAAR · 1 meeting · n/a
4 Aug 23 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 1st, 8.25L behind · OR 76 v 68 · race median 73 (today 76) · stale — 36m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs PATROL (IRE) (read through PERCY JONES, CURRAN, ARCTURUS FLAME, CRYSTAL MARINER) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PRIMO LARA (IRE) (read through ABANDO, OMAN, PAPAGEI) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TAILORMAN (FR) (read through PERCY JONES, SARATOGA GOLD, CURRAN, BUXTED TOO) ≈ +0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (77 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, led before final 1f, drew clear, readily”
#6 OHARA MID
DRAW 8 · OR 77 · Oisin Murphy / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET backed 10.5 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 6pts off the top, backed since the morning; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 71
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 2.2s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.23% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 26 places on the course scale (CHEPSTOW 27th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 1m4f · rated 828thClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 769thClass 4 · 1m22y · rated 681stClass 5 · 1m · rated 794thClass 5 · 1m · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OHARAneeds 86–88best 822025-06-25 · TFR 60 · 7f · Slow · C4 · off-trip2025-07-12 · TFR 75 · 7f · Firm · C2 · off-trip2025-08-16 · TFR 55 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2025-09-28 · TFR 65 · 7f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-10-09 · TFR 74 · 1m · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-10-20 · TFR 79 · 1m · Heavy · C5 · off-trip2026-05-11 · TFR 68 · 1m31y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2026-06-12 · TFR 76 · 1m1f209y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-07-03 · TFR 82 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C525 Jun 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Eve Johnson Houghton · 1052 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-FALLING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-158/1644.9%0.656/5510.9%1.36
At this time of year (Q3) ✦38/36410.4%1.0210/5219.2%1.29
On turf ✦64/57611.1%1.0627/18614.5%1.22
In Class 4-5 company ✦66/49713.3%1.1425/15715.9%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)1/392.6%0.471/137.7%1.27
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 18/71 · at Ascot: A/E 1.1 (n210) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n6) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 15
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 15
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 15
104.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length14th of 15
6.80 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Chepstow1m4fGd/Frm52nd75—True40.9 +0.37112.0+0.09
12 Jun 26Sandown Park1m1f209yGood48th7777.5Slow early37.5 +0.26105.6+0.27
11 May 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm49th7777True40.3 -0.01103.6+0.22
9 Oct 25Bath1mGood54th——True39.7 +0.0899.8+0.08
28 Sep 25Epsom Downs7fGood47th7877Slow early40.7 -0.99106.1+0.03
16 Aug 25Ripon1mGd/Frm25th——True39.2 -0.1298.3+0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.45slow2f+0.47par3f+0.48par4f+0.50slow5f+0.43slow6f+0.54slow7f+0.47par1m+0.36par1m 1f+0.38fast1m 2f+0.45fast1m 3f+0.48fast1m 4f+0.22fast
Timed runs 2025-08-16 to 2026-07-03. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AKHO MEZZNA (FR) · 2 meetings≈ 2.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
12 Jun 26 · 1m1f209y · Good — finished 8th vs 2nd, 5.8L behind · OR 77 v 76 · race median 78
EDWIN HUBBLE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
12 Jun 26 · 1m1f209y · Good — finished 8th vs 7th, 1.5L behind · OR 77 v 77 · race median 78
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-2.4L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (77 today vs 71)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-2 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“held up, shaken up under 3f out, headway over 2f out, stayed on final 1f, no match for winner”
#7 EDWIN HUBBLE (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 77 · Tom Marquand / Brian Meehan
MARKET drifting 6.2 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 6pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
77 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
33
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.83% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 72 last run (WINDSOR · 22 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 1m3f88y · rated 827thClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 782ndClass 4 · 1m1f22y · rated 833rdClass 4 · 1m · rated 803rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 65
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for EDWIN HUBBLE (IRE)needs 86–88best 832025-08-16 · TFR 71 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2025-09-11 · TFR 65 · 7f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-09-27 · TFR 80 · 7f211y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-10-12 · TFR 83 · 1m1f11y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2026-06-12 · TFR 78 · 1m1f209y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-06-22 · TFR 82 · 1m3f99y · Gd/Frm · C516 Aug 2522 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Meehan · 327 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Ascot5/1926.3%4.350/90.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips0/100.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
In fields of 12-153/476.4%0.920/170.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company16/15910.1%0.821/482.1%0.25
At this time of year (Q3)14/11612.1%0.991/185.6%0.44
On turf ✦22/20810.6%0.973/694.3%0.6
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 82 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 4/44 · at Ascot: A/E 1.07 (n176) · with this yard: A/E 0.88 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 15
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 15
+0.24s
Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 15
106.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length10th of 15
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Jun 26Windsor1m3f99yGd/Frm52nd7572True40.5 +0.42112.3—
12 Jun 26Sandown Park1m1f209yGood47th7777.5Slow early37.5 +0.30104.9+0.03
27 Sep 25Haydock Park7f212yGood43rd——True38.9 +0.00104.4-0.06
11 Sep 25Epsom Downs7fGood43rd——Slow early41.6 +0.01109.1+0.50
16 Aug 25Newbury7fGd/Frm27th——Slow early40.5 +0.21103.4+0.49
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.47slow2f+0.36slow3f+0.58slow4f+0.49par5f+0.50fast6f+0.66par7f+0.57par1m+0.49par1m 1f+0.36fast1m 2f+0.32fast1m 3f+0.15very fast
Timed runs 2025-08-16 to 2026-06-22. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AKHO MEZZNA (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
12 Jun 26 · 1m1f209y · Good — finished 7th vs 2nd, 4.3L behind · OR 77 v 76 · race median 78 (today 76)
OHARA · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Jun 26 · 1m1f209y · Good — finished 7th vs 8th, 1.5L ahead · OR 77 v 77 · race median 78 (today 76)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-0.4L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 1 run at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, shaken up under 3f out, little impression”
#8 TAILORMAN (FR) MID
DRAW 13 · OR 73 · Charles Bishop / Ian Williams
MARKET drifting 85 → 130 · the market rates it a 1% chance
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 10pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
315
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.83% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 73 last run (CHESTER · 13 Sep 25)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 1m4f66y · rated 786thClass 3 · 1m7f198y · rated 715thClass 4 · 1m6f88y · rated 621stClass 5 · 1m7f198y · rated 802ndClass 5 · 1m6f110y · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TAILORMAN (FR)best 87needs 86–882025-04-29 · TFR 72 · 1m6f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-05-09 · TFR 67 · 2m2f141y · Good · C2 · off-trip2025-06-01 · TFR 72 · 1m6f · Slow · C4 · off-trip2025-06-07 · TFR 75 · 1m6f114y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-06-28 · TFR 80 · 1m7f196y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-12 · TFR 62 · 1m6f88y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-07-25 · TFR 71 · 1m7f209y · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-09-13 · TFR 78 · 1m4f64y · Good · C429 Apr 2513 Sep 25
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 315 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 4/29 · at Ascot: A/E 1.14 (n59) · with this yard: A/E 1.8 (n84)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 15
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 15
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 15
103.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length13th of 15
6.89 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Sep 25Chester1m4f63yGood44th7473True37.0 +0.06104.2+0.06
25 Jul 25Ascot1m7f209yGd/Frm36th7585True37.8 +0.23101.3-0.09
12 Jul 25Chester1m6f87yGd/Frm45th7575.5True37.7 +0.2697.7+0.09
28 Jun 25Chester1m7f196yGd/Frm51st7068True37.6 +0.25100.4+0.16
7 Jun 25Doncaster1m6f115yGd/Frm52nd6971Slow early39.2 +0.00112.5+0.00
1 Jun 25Chelmsford City1m6fSlow47th6978True38.2 +0.03106.9+0.02
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.28slow2f+0.34fast3f+0.22par4f+0.30par5f+0.25slow6f+0.19slow7f+0.17par1m+0.15par1m 1f+0.14par1m 2f+0.13fast1m 3f+0.53fast1m 4f+0.97par
Timed runs 2025-06-01 to 2025-09-13 · last timed run 315 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs PATROL (IRE) (read through PERCY JONES, SIMIYANN, CURRAN, FRANCESCO BARACCA) ≈ -5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BINT AL DAAR (read through DAMASCUS STEEL, KITTY FURNIVAL) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TARITINO (IRE) (read through PERCY JONES, SARATOGA GOLD, CURRAN, BUXTED TOO) ≈ -0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 315 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden 2f out, edged left final 1f, no extra final ½f”
#9 OASIS SUNRISE (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 72 · Ashley Lewis / Grace Harris
MARKET drifting 70 → 85 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
74.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 13.3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a genuine turn of foot — 7th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
74.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.74)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.32% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 26 places on the course scale (CHEPSTOW 27th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 73 last run (CHEPSTOW · 3 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 1m4f · rated 694thClass 5 · 1m3f198y · rated 751stClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 801stClass 6 · 1m4f · rated 742ndClass 6 · 1m · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OASIS SUNRISE (IRE)needs 86–88best 802025-05-14 · TFR 53 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-06-14 · TFR 59 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-06-29 · TFR 54 · 1m · Soft · C6 · off-trip2025-07-11 · TFR 54 · 1m13y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-07-16 · TFR 63 · 1m · Firm · C6 · off-trip2025-07-26 · TFR 33 · 1m · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-08-05 · TFR 60 · 7f79y · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-08-16 · TFR 56 · 1m · Firm · C6 · off-trip2025-09-03 · TFR 57 · 1m · Heavy · C6 · off-trip2025-09-28 · TFR 55 · 1m · Heavy · C6 · off-trip2025-11-24 · TFR 55 · 2m · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2026-04-05 · TFR 53 · 1m · Good · C6 · off-trip2026-04-17 · TFR 64 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C6 · off-trip2026-04-29 · TFR 69 · 1m · Firm · C6 · off-trip2026-05-09 · TFR 69 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-22 · TFR 72 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2026-05-29 · TFR 74 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-13 · TFR 80 · 1m2f · Good · C52026-06-20 · TFR 75 · 1m3f198y · Gd/Frm · C52026-07-03 · TFR 69 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C514 May 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 459 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-154/705.7%1.12/258.0%1.4
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1308.5%0.832/277.4%0.66
In Class 4-5 company ✦7/1016.9%0.834/656.2%0.72
Above their last winning mark ✦7/977.2%0.615/4211.9%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)1/185.6%1.192/633.3%1.73
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 81 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 9/28 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n5) · with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n30)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 15
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 15
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 15
104.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 15
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Chepstow1m4fGd/Frm53rd7373True39.4 -0.51107.5-0.01
20 Jun 26Doncaster1m3f197yGd/Frm54th7367—39.1 -0.05105.7+0.09
13 Jun 26Leicester1m2fGood51st6968True38.5 +0.26103.6+0.00
29 May 26Chepstow1m4fGd/Frm61st6361.5True38.7 +0.26103.8+0.26
22 May 26Bath1mGd/Frm62nd6359True39.7 -0.01102.8+0.06
9 May 26Leicester1m2fGd/Frm63rd6349True36.9 -0.78102.4+0.17
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.29very slow2f+0.25par3f+0.26slow4f+0.21par5f+0.21par6f+0.29fast7f+0.23fast1m+0.25par1m 1f+0.22par1m 2f+0.21par1m 3f+0.64slow1m 4f+1.65slow
Timed runs 2026-05-09 to 2026-07-03. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE) (read through GALAXY WONDER, EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PRIMO LARA (IRE) (read through PLEASANT MAN, GALAXY WONDER) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BINT AL DAAR (read through PLEASANT MAN, NUPTOWN GIRL, EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 69)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“tracked pace, outpaced 2f out, weakened approaching final 1f”
#10 GREEN FALCON MID
DRAW 11 · OR 74 · Jamie Spencer / David Menuisier
MARKET backed 16 → 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
74.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 14pts off the top, backed since the morning; a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
74 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
115
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.8% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 15 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 1m3f · rated 742ndClass 5 · 1m1f22y · rated 764thClass 2 · 1m · rated 713rdClass 2 · 7f44y · rated 67
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GREEN FALCONneeds 86–88best 762025-06-21 · TFR 67 · 7f37y · Good · C2 · off-trip2025-08-24 · TFR 71 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2025-09-18 · TFR 76 · 1m1f22y · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2026-04-01 · TFR 74 · 1m3f · Slow · C421 Jun 251 Apr 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Menuisier · 496 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦33/25213.1%1.0913/8116.0%1.35
In Class 4-5 company ✦30/20814.4%1.2310/6216.1%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)23/15414.9%1.240/130.0%0.0
In fields of 12-157/848.3%0.970/150.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/150.0%0.01/250.0%2.17
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Jamie Spencer · last 14 days: 2/8 · at Ascot: A/E 1 (n104) · with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields14th of 15
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 15
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 15
104.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 15
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Apr 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow45th7577True38.7 -0.25109.7+0.04
18 Sep 25Yarmouth1m1f21yGd/Sft52nd———38.2 +0.13107.4+0.02
24 Aug 25Goodwood1mGd/Frm24th——True38.4 -0.5899.4+0.00
21 Jun 25Haydock Park7f37yGood23rd——True38.8 -0.22102.7+0.29
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.19par2f+0.15slow3f+0.11slow4f+0.05slow5f+0.07par6f+0.04par7f+0.05par1m+0.21par1m 1f+0.12fast1m 2f+0.02fast1m 3f+0.34fast
Timed runs 2025-06-21 to 2026-04-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Only 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“chased leader, hung right over 1f out, no extra only late”
#11 BINT AL DAAR MID
DRAW 7 · OR 71 · Daniel Muscutt / Kevin & Lauren Frost
MARKET 80 · the market rates it a 1% chance
73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 14.3pts off the top, proven at the trip; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
73.7 · ranked #11 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.86)
Days since last run
105
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.82% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 20 places on the course scale (SOUTHWELL 21st → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 5lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 71 last run (SOUTHWELL · 11 Apr 26)
Headgear
Visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 5 · 1m3f22y · rated 688thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 775thClass 4 · 1m1f110y · rated 761stClass 4 · 1m3f22y · rated 772ndClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BINT AL DAARbest 91needs 86–882025-04-06 · TFR 86 · 1m13y · Std · C4 · off-trip2025-04-29 · TFR 86 · 1m75y · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-05-16 · TFR 69 · 1m2f55y · Good · C22025-06-18 · TFR 74 · 1m · Firm · C2 · off-trip2025-07-13 · TFR 81 · 1m3f22y · Std · C32025-07-31 · TFR 67 · 1m1f103y · Std · C3 · off-trip2025-08-10 · TFR 77 · 1m2f99y · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-22 · TFR 76 · 1m2f55y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-12 · TFR 53 · 1m3f198y · Good · C22025-10-01 · TFR 71 · 1m3f · Std · C42025-10-18 · TFR 76 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-11-03 · TFR 65 · 1m3f · Std · C22025-12-04 · TFR 77 · 1m2f · Slow · C52025-12-22 · TFR 72 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C4 · off-trip2026-01-17 · TFR 65 · 1m2f · Std · C22026-02-08 · TFR 75 · 1m2f · Std · C52026-03-04 · TFR 77 · 1m3f22y · Std · C42026-03-20 · TFR 76 · 1m1f103y · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-04-03 · TFR 77 · 1m4f · Std · C42026-04-11 · TFR 68 · 1m3f24y · Std · C56 Apr 2511 Apr 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin & Lauren Frost
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Daniel Muscutt · last 14 days: 1/14 · at Ascot: A/E 0.34 (n42)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 15
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph15th of 15
+0.33s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 15
106.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 15
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Apr 26Southwell1m3f23yStd57th7271True38.5 +0.32106.1+0.49
3 Apr 26Lingfield1m4fStd48th7373True39.5 -0.67107.5+0.68
20 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd45th7383True40.2 +0.71105.7+0.13
4 Mar 26Southwell1m3f23yStd41st7077True38.1 +0.30106.5+0.00
17 Jan 26Lingfield1m2fStd29th7782True40.4 -0.62108.6+0.44
22 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow45th7173.5True38.7 -0.05106.5+0.22
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.93very slow2f+1.06slow3f+0.97par4f+1.02par5f+1.21par6f+1.36fast7f+1.24fast1m+1.51slow1m 1f+1.34par1m 2f+1.01par1m 3f+1.13slow
Timed runs 2025-12-22 to 2026-04-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TARITINO (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
4 Aug 23 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 6th, 8.25L ahead · OR 68 v 76 · race median 73 (today 76) · stale — 36m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs TAILORMAN (FR) (read through DAMASCUS STEEL, KITTY FURNIVAL) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PRIMO LARA (IRE) (read through CELESTIAS COMET, GINCIDENT, KING'S CODE, PLEASANT MAN) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OASIS SUNRISE (IRE) (read through PLEASANT MAN, NUPTOWN GIRL, EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PATROL (IRE) (read through YOKOHAMA, ELSASS, MAO SHANG WONG, KIMEKO GLORY) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.86)Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“slowly away, always behind”
#12 HENGEST MID
DRAW 12 · OR 81 · C. T. Keane / Dylan Cunha
MARKET backed 19.5 → 17.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
73.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 15pts off the top, backed since the morning; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.81)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.77% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 4 · 1m2f66y · rated 738thClass 2 · 1m4f · rated 561stClass 5 · 1m2f22y · rated 851stClass 5 · 1m3f132y · rated 831stClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HENGESTneeds 86–88best 852026-04-11 · TFR 66 · 1m · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-04-28 · TFR 79 · 1m112y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-05-11 · TFR 79 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-19 · TFR 83 · 1m3f132y · Good · C52026-05-28 · TFR 85 · 1m2f22y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-06 · TFR 56 · 1m4f · Soft · C22026-06-27 · TFR 73 · 1m2f55y · Good · C411 Apr 2627 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Dylan Cunha · 820 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦26/15416.9%1.1110/7014.3%1.25
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)23/20311.3%0.991/342.9%0.32
Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/28713.6%1.084/1053.8%0.38
On turf41/35411.6%1.0812/1468.2%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/1711.8%2.40/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
C. T. Keane · last 14 days: 8/54 · at Ascot: A/E 0.94 (n68)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 15
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 36.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 15
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 15
106.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length15th of 15
6.67 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York1m2f56yGood49th8275True38.1 -0.48104.0+0.01
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m4fSoft28th8491True33.9 -0.6296.7+0.01
28 May 26Yarmouth1m2f23yGd/Frm51st78—Slow early40.8 +0.40113.0-0.18
19 May 26Lingfield1m3f133yGood51st7466True38.7 +0.87112.1-0.02
11 May 26Windsor1m2fGd/Frm51st6966True38.1 +0.00105.2+0.13
28 Apr 26Epsom Downs1m113yGood44th——True40.5 +0.42109.7+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.50par2f+0.55par3f+0.55slow4f+0.69slow5f+0.90slow6f+0.67fast7f+0.61par1m+0.80par1m 1f+0.97slow1m 2f+1.86slow
Timed runs 2026-04-28 to 2026-06-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs PATROL (IRE) (read through ATLANTIC SUNSET, PLEASANT MAN, FURTHER MEASURE) ≈ +3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MASTERINTHEWOODS (IRE) (read through BIG BEAR HUG, CAPH STAR) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PRIMO LARA (IRE) (read through KING'S CASTLE, PLEASANT MAN, CAPH STAR, KING'S HAND) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BINT AL DAAR (read through PLEASANT MAN, BULLETIN, HARLINGTON, MAN OF DESERT) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 78)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 12 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“handy, ridden soon after halfway, lost place quickly home turn”
#13 MUDITA (IRE) MID
DRAW 2 · OR 69 · Silvestre De Sousa / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET backed 23 → 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
73 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 15pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
73 · ranked #13 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
69 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 107.82% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 1m6f88y · rated 693rdClass 4 · 1m3f198y · rated 755thClass 4 · 1m2f44y · rated 751stClass 4 · 1m1f176y · rated 753rdClass 4 · 7f44y · rated 52
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MUDITA (IRE)needs 86–88best 752026-03-03 · TFR 52 · 7f35y · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-04-25 · TFR 75 · 1m1f169y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-06-03 · TFR 75 · 1m2f51y · Good · C42026-06-20 · TFR 75 · 1m3f198y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-11 · TFR 69 · 1m6f88y · Good · C4 · off-trip3 Mar 2611 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot—1/911.1%4.77
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips—0/140.0%0.0
In fields of 12-15—3/783.8%0.52
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—4/656.2%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Silvestre De Sousa · last 14 days: 2/24 · at Ascot: A/E 0.83 (n83)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 15
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 15
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 15
107.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length11th of 15
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Chester1m6f87yGood43rd7073.5Fast early37.5 -0.02104.3+0.09
20 Jun 26Doncaster1m3f197yGd/Frm43rd7277—40.9 -0.13116.8-0.01
3 Jun 26Nottingham1m2f50yGood45th7272True37.8 -0.43108.8+0.00
25 Apr 26Ripon1m1f170yGood41st——Slow early39.8 -0.0398.8+0.00
3 Mar 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd43rd——Slow early40.4 +0.74110.3+0.51
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.30very slow2f+0.28very slow3f+0.31very slow4f+0.24very slow5f+0.20very slow6f+0.52fast7f+0.45fast1m+0.50fast1m 1f+0.49fast1m 2f+0.53very fast1m 3f+0.42very fast1m 4f+0.46very fast1m 5f+0.58fast1m 6f+0.72fast
Timed runs 2026-03-03 to 2026-07-11. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs AKHO MEZZNA (FR) (read through MIDNIGHT RODEO, BARBURY BOY) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PATROL (IRE) (read through CRANACHAN, CURRAN, VENEZUELAN) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, not clear run over 1f out, kept on”
#14 SIR GRIFLET (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 9 · OR 61 · Isobelle Chalmers / Dylan Cunha
MARKET backed 50 → 38 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
58.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
14th on the figures, 29.3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
58.7 · ranked #14 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
61 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
44
Sectional clock
Last time: 4.5s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.68% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 25 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 17lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 59 last run (NOTTINGHAM · 11 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.51)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 1m6f · rated 454thClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 666thClass 5 · 1m3f88y · rated 655thClass 3 · 1m4f · rated 655thClass 2 · 1m2f · rated —
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SIR GRIFLET (IRE)needs 86–88best 662026-04-11 · TFR 5 · 1m3f24y · Std · C32026-05-03 · TFR 65 · 1m4f · Good · C32026-05-18 · TFR 65 · 1m3f99y · Good · C52026-06-02 · TFR 66 · 1m4f51y · Std · C62026-06-11 · TFR 45 · 1m6f · Soft · C6 · off-trip11 Apr 2611 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Dylan Cunha · 820 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)23/20311.3%0.991/342.9%0.32
Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/28713.6%1.084/1053.8%0.38
On turf41/35411.6%1.0812/1468.2%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/1711.8%2.40/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 65 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 15
-0.21 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 15
-0.05s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 6 of 6
Finish · closing speed15th of 15
98.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 15
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Nottingham1m6fSoft66th6059True34.7 -0.5597.7-0.25
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd64th6058.5True36.9 -0.02102.2+0.00
18 May 26Windsor1m3f99yGood56th6871True38.5 -0.41104.4+0.00
3 May 26Salisbury1m4fGood35th——True37.9 -0.25107.4-0.03
16 Apr 26Newmarket1m2fGood25th——True38.2 +0.0088.2+0.00
11 Apr 26Southwell1m3f23yStd35th——True36.8 -0.0692.1+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery fast2fledfast3fledpar4fledpar5fledpar6fledpar7fledslow1mledpar1m 1fledvery slow1m 2fledslow1m 3f+0.02par1m 4f+0.51slow1m 5f+1.46very slow1m 6f+3.39very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-11 to 2026-06-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Only 4 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led, headed 3f out, dropped away”
#15 A DAUGHTERS LOVE HELD-UP
DRAW · OR 63 · Jack Doughty / David Flood
MARKET drifting 50 → 70 · the market rates it a 1% chance
55 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
15th on the figures, 33pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
55 · ranked #15 here · career best 57
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 51
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.08% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 31 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 23lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 53 last run (WOLVERHAMPTON · 14 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 541stClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 571stClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 543rdClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 513rdClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 53
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for A DAUGHTERS LOVEneeds 86–88best 572025-08-24 · TFR 15 · 5f205y · Gd/Sft · off-trip2026-03-15 · TFR 6 · 7f · Heavy · off-trip2026-04-01 · TFR 33 · 6f · Std · off-trip2026-06-02 · TFR 27 · 1m143y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-06-05 · TFR 53 · 1m2f37y · Good · C62026-06-23 · TFR 51 · 1m2f · Good · C62026-06-27 · TFR 54 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-04 · TFR 57 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-14 · TFR 54 · 1m4f51y · Std · C624 Aug 2514 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Flood
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 59 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Jack Doughty · last 14 days: 0/19 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 2.37 (n7)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 15
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 35.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph14th of 15
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 15
104.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length9th of 15
7.10 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jul 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd65th5453—35.5 -0.10102.9+0.25—
4 Jul 26Leicester1m2fGd/Frm61st5150.5—38.9 -0.14100.7+0.36—
27 Jun 26Chepstow1m2fGd/Frm61st4648.5True40.1 +0.70107.4+0.26
23 Jun 26Ffos Las1m2fGood63rd——True37.9 +0.20101.7+0.35
5 Jun 26Bath1m2f37yGood63rd4653True38.3 -0.01100.6+0.32
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd611th——Slow early39.4 -0.48111.2+0.31
Timed runs 2026-06-02 to 2026-07-14. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
12lb above his last winning mark (63 today vs 51)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, pushed along wide over 2f out, headway final 1f, stayed on to lead close home”