FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ascot · 16:45
Class 2 · 1m · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 94
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 11 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:48 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 1-33333.3%57.6%42.4%60.6%
miles (7-9f)4922.4%49%22.4%42.9%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
mid fields (8-11)6921.7%46.4%20.3%46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (78% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (61% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 6th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, BLUE RC (IRE) leads on 115, 4pts clear of CROWN BOARD (IRE) — one of the two strongest finishers here. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls, a yard out of form, the clock has it fading late and rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes BLUE RC (IRE) the 19% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 9
BLUE RC (IRE)
OR 104 · C. T. Keane / James Tate
MARKET 5.1 · the market rates it a 19% chance
115.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (115.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 10
CROWN BOARD (IRE)
OR 103 · Silvestre De Sousa / Jane Chapple-Hyam
MARKET 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
111.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayRated #2 in this field (111.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 2.57)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 8
ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE)
OR 99 · Cieren Fallon / James Owen
MARKET 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
106.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (106.0)Stable in form this week — 7 wins from 16 runs
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1URBAN LIONnet +10race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard hot, fits the winner profile on market position
2BLUE RC (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here − habitually slow away, yard cold, clock FADE, 5lb+ above last winning mark
3ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
BLUE RC (IRE) carries habitually slow from the stalls, a yard out of form, the clock has it fading late and rated well above the mark it last won from. URBAN LION is the one to beat it — an edge BLUE RC (IRE) lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
SPANISH VOICE  FIGURE #5
Andrew Balding's runners in Class 1-3 company win 18.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Andrew Balding's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 23.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
HICKORY (IRE)  FIGURE #6
Jamie Osborne's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 14.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE)  FIGURE #7
Richard Hannon's runners coming back after within 7 days win 36.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
URBAN LION  FIGURE #11
Jack Channon's runners in Class 1-3 company win 11.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Jack Channon's runners kept to the same class win 13.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by hold-up closers 40% · midfield runners 25% (48 past C&D winners · won from off the pace). Stiff, testing uphill finish. Winners’ energy signature: 49.01% spent early (band 47.91–49.8%, 71 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~6 at halfway, 0.5s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
18 similar races at ASCOT, 7.5-8.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 1-3, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (78% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (61% from the first three favourites). 22% won last time out, 33% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
56% 4yo
28% 3yo
11% 5yo
Last ran
56% 15-45d
22% within 14d
17% 46-90d
Market
39% 4th+ in the market
39% favourite
17% 2nd favourite
LTO form
39% unplaced last time
33% placed last time
22% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 11 runners · stalls 1–11
1234567891011
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: BLUE RC (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · CROWN BOARD (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
BLUE RC (IRE) MID 48.6% 104.2 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CROWN BOARD (IRE) MID 50.0% 101.2 solid late gains (6th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
URBAN LION PROMINENT 49.6% 99.3 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) MID 48.5% 105.0 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GRIZEDALE MID 50.6% 100.5 solid late gains (9th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
SPANISH VOICE MID 50.1% 100.5 solid late gains (8th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
HICKORY (IRE) HELD-UP 49.6% 100.7 solid late gains (7th of 11 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) HELD-UP 50.4% 100.0 one-paced late — 10th of 11 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SALAM DUBAWI PROMINENT 49.3% 103.4 a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) MID 49.2% 102.8 solid late gains (4th of 11 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
FRANKIES DREAM (IRE) MID 49.2% 102.5 solid late gains (5th of 11 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
URBAN LIONPROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.25s off the best)
SALAM DUBAWIPROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 BLUE RC (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 9 · OR 104 · C. T. Keane / James Tate
MARKET 5.1 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
115.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
115.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 115
Official mark (OR)
104 · last won off 94
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)
Days since last run
38
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.25% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 102 last run (ASCOT · 17 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 2 · 1m · rated 1159thClass 2 · 1m · rated 992ndClass 2 · 1m · rated 1072ndClass 2 · 1m · rated 1091stClass 2 · 1m22y · rated 105
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BLUE RC (IRE)best 115needs 111–1152025-03-27 · TFR 83 · 6f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-04-25 · TFR 83 · 6f · Good · C52025-05-28 · TFR 95 · 7f · Std · C42025-06-17 · TFR 97 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-27 · TFR 93 · 1m · Good · C42025-10-22 · TFR 98 · 1m · Std · C32025-12-11 · TFR 104 · 1m · Slow · C22026-01-01 · TFR 105 · 1m13y · Std · C22026-04-03 · TFR 109 · 1m · Std · C22026-05-02 · TFR 107 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22026-05-16 · TFR 99 · 1m · Good · C22026-06-17 · TFR 115 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C227 Mar 2517 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Tate · 554 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/14419.4%1.221/234.3%0.33
Above their last winning mark12/5422.2%1.284/488.3%0.64
Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/17522.3%1.2811/9012.2%0.8
In fields of 8-1136/20717.4%1.1810/8711.5%0.81
In Class 1-3 company17/9418.1%1.217/6111.5%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/70.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 115 at/around today's trip, clears the ~111.0 demand
The rider
C. T. Keane · last 14 days: 8/54 · at Ascot: A/E 0.94 (n68)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 11
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 11
+0.39s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 11
104.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 11
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot1mGd/Frm22nd100102True39.7 +0.31100.8+0.50
16 May 26Newbury1mGood29th10195True39.7 +0.33101.1+0.53
2 May 26Thirsk1mGd/Frm22nd9993True40.9 +0.99106.0+0.56
3 Apr 26Newcastle1mStd22nd9997.5True39.9 -0.09102.5+0.35
1 Jan 26Southwell1m13yStd21st9498True40.6 +0.47105.1+0.18
11 Dec 25Chelmsford City1mSlow22nd93100Slow early41.1 +0.45110.1+0.22
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.83par2f+0.99par3f+1.10par4f+0.94par5f+0.70par6f+0.45par7f+0.19par1m+0.18par
Timed runs 2025-12-11 to 2026-06-17. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
URBAN LION · 1 meeting≈ 15.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
17 Jun 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 26th, 18.05L ahead · OR 100 v 102 · race median 102 (today 94)
CROWN BOARD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Dec 25 · 1m · Slow — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.5L behind · OR 93 v 102 · race median 100 (today 94)
SPANISH VOICE · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 9th vs 10th, 0.3L ahead · OR 101 v 92 · race median 95 (today 94)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+5.6L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) (read through MISTER WINSTON, TALIS EVOLVERE, OZAT, MIRSKY) ≈ +4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FRANKIES DREAM (IRE) (read through ESHERANN, CITY OF POETS, BENACRE, NEW IMAGE) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SALAM DUBAWI (read through RHOSCOLYN, THUNDER RUN, BENACRE, MASTER RICHARD) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) (read through GREEN TRIANGLE, JAGGED EDGE) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
10lb above his last winning mark (104 today vs 94)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (115.0)Improving fast — last run rated 115, 8pts above his recent average of 107.0Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, shaken up over 2f out, headway over 1f out, kept on”
#2 CROWN BOARD (IRE) MID
DRAW 10 · OR 103 · Silvestre De Sousa / Jane Chapple-Hyam
MARKET 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
111.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, in form; solid late gains (6th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
111.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 112
Official mark (OR)
103 · last won off 102
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (2.57)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.19% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 2 · 7f · rated 1111stClass 2 · 1m · rated 1124thClass 2 · 7f44y · rated 1031stClass 3 · 7f · rated 1096thClass 2 · 7f132y · rated 95
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CROWN BOARD (IRE)best 112needs 111–1152025-04-21 · TFR 93 · 1m2f · Std · C1 · off-trip2025-05-17 · TFR 84 · 1m · Firm · C22025-07-18 · TFR 96 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-30 · TFR 95 · 7f128y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-12 · TFR 109 · 7f · Heavy · C32025-11-25 · TFR 103 · 7f35y · Slow · C22025-12-11 · TFR 112 · 1m · Slow · C22026-07-04 · TFR 111 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C221 Apr 254 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jane Chapple-Hyam · 534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark10/5020.0%1.325/2420.8%1.59
In fields of 8-1120/2079.7%0.899/5117.6%1.21
In Class 1-3 company17/16110.6%1.165/5010.0%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)14/13910.1%0.893/2114.3%0.7
Over 7-8f trips ✦25/21311.7%0.988/6013.3%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)3/2313.0%1.840/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 112 at/around today's trip, clears the ~111.0 demand
The rider
Silvestre De Sousa · last 14 days: 2/24 · at Ascot: A/E 0.83 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0.56 (n35)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 11
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 11
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 11
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 11
7.49 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm23rd10493.5—42.5 +0.30103.5+0.00—
11 Dec 25Chelmsford City1mSlow21st102100Slow early40.7 +0.10109.1-0.01
25 Nov 25Wolverhampton7f36ySlow24th10294True39.3 -0.05100.8+0.03
12 Sep 25Sandown Park7fHeavy31st9589Fast early36.9 +0.0095.2+0.56
30 Aug 25Chester7f127yGd/Frm26th9797True39.9 +0.06103.5+0.41
18 Jul 25Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm29th10089.5True44.2 +0.4295.1+0.10
Timed runs 2025-07-18 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BLUE RC (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Dec 25 · 1m · Slow — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.5L ahead · OR 102 v 93 · race median 100 (today 94)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+5.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs GRIZEDALE (read through DUTCH DECOY, KITARO KICH) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs URBAN LION (read through WITCH HUNTER, EBT'S GUARD, CLASSIC, BOYFRIEND) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HICKORY (IRE) (read through AKKADIAN THUNDER, WITCH HUNTER, ENGLISH OAK, BOYFRIEND) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) (read through AKKADIAN THUNDER, KINGDOM COME, ANCIENT ROME, LEGAL REFORM) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayRated #2 in this field (111.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 2.57)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led overall, pushed along halfway, headed under 3f out, plugged on”
#3 ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 8 · OR 99 · Cieren Fallon / James Owen
MARKET 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
106.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 9pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
106.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 106
Official mark (OR)
99 · last won off 91
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.85)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.02% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 91 last run (NEWMARKET · 9 Jul 26)
Headgear
Visor · yard 16% with first-time gear (A/E 1.22)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 3 · 1m · rated 10615thClass 2 · 1m110y · rated 772ndClass 3 · 1m22y · rated 1033rdClass 2 · 1m2f22y · rated 882ndClass 3 · 1m4f · rated 93
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE)needs 111–115best 1062025-04-07 · TFR 82 · 1m2f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-04-26 · TFR 90 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-05-17 · TFR 87 · 1m2f · Firm · C2 · off-trip2025-05-31 · TFR 91 · 1m2f55y · Firm · C3 · off-trip2025-06-25 · TFR 87 · 1m1f200y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-18 · TFR 91 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-08-23 · TFR 92 · 1m1f198y · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-06 · TFR 48 · 1m1f211y · Gd/Sft · C32025-10-13 · TFR 96 · 1m3f · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-04-10 · TFR 93 · 1m4f9y · Gd/Sft · C3 · off-trip2026-04-28 · TFR 88 · 1m2f18y · Good · C2 · off-trip2026-05-25 · TFR 103 · 1m31y · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-05 · TFR 77 · 1m112y · Gd/Sft · C22026-07-09 · TFR 106 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C37 Apr 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1553 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot0/200.0%0.03/2213.6%2.96
In Class 1-3 company11/1836.0%0.6912/10111.9%1.37
At this time of year (Q3)46/36612.6%0.9214/6123.0%1.3
On turf ✦68/48813.9%1.0650/27318.3%1.15
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 106 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 4/26 · at Ascot: A/E 0.98 (n60) · with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n99)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 11
+0.22 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 11
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 11
105.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 11
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm31st9191True40.5 +0.99102.8+0.75
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Sft215th8889Fast early39.8 +0.01101.8+0.65
25 May 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm32nd8887.5True40.8 -0.02104.1+0.00
28 Apr 26Epsom Downs1m2f17yGood23rd8889True41.1 +0.27108.7+0.30
10 Apr 26Thirsk1m4fGd/Sft32nd8883True38.5 -0.28110.5+0.00
13 Oct 25Kempton Park1m3fStd42nd8680True38.9 +0.36102.2+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.35very slow2f+1.21par3f+0.94fast4f+1.05par5f+0.85par6f+0.33fast7fledfast1mledfast
Timed runs 2025-10-13 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SPANISH VOICE · 1 meeting≈ 1.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 5th, 5.55L ahead · OR 91 v 94 · race median 91 (today 94)
HICKORY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
9 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 6th, 5.85L ahead · OR 91 v 94 · race median 91 (today 94)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SALAM DUBAWI (read through WALSINGHAM, CELEBORN, PARLANDO, QUAI DE BETHUNE) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BLUE RC (IRE) (read through MISTER WINSTON, TALIS EVOLVERE, OZAT, MIRSKY) ≈ -4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) (read through MISTER WINSTON, THUNDER ROAR, TALIS EVOLVERE, STERLING KNIGHT) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) (read through STEM, PARLANDO, RATHGAR, SALLAAL) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb above his last winning mark (99 today vs 91)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRated #3 in this field (106.0)Improving fast — last run rated 106, 10pts above his recent average of 95.3Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 7 wins from 16 runsLost roughly 3.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, headway wide over 2f out, quickened to lead over 1f out, edged right, kept on well final 1f, readily”
#4 GRIZEDALE MID DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNERFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR 96 · Oisin Murphy / Daniel & Claire Kubler
MARKET 5.3 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
106.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
106.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 106
Official mark (OR)
96 · last won off 87
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.2)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.53% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 6 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 16lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 77.5 last run (NEWBURY · 9 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 1m · rated 1061stClass 4 · 1m · rated 9412thClass 4 · 1m176y · rated 737thClass 3 · 1m · rated 723rdClass 3 · 1m · rated 89
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GRIZEDALEneeds 111–115best 1062025-04-27 · TFR 88 · 1m13y · Slow · C32025-08-06 · TFR 92 · 1m · Std/Slow · C42025-08-27 · TFR 87 · 7f · Std · C52025-10-03 · TFR 89 · 1m · Soft · C32025-11-01 · TFR 72 · 1m · Good · C32026-06-13 · TFR 73 · 1m176y · Good · C42026-07-02 · TFR 94 · 1m · Slow · C42026-07-09 · TFR 106 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C427 Apr 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Daniel & Claire Kubler · 549 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company7/1106.4%0.783/2213.6%1.92
Above their last winning mark30/17017.6%1.146/3318.2%1.63
Coming back after 15 to 45 days44/26816.4%1.175/2917.2%1.42
Over 7-8f trips ✦29/20614.1%1.047/4017.5%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-1139/23416.7%1.12/345.9%0.43
On turf45/28415.8%1.154/439.3%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/150.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 107 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 18/71 · at Ascot: A/E 1.1 (n210) · with this yard: A/E 0.74 (n16)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11
+0.36 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 11
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 11
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 11
7.51 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Newbury1mGd/Frm41st8777.5True40.6 +0.0799.1—
2 Jul 26Kempton Park1mSlow41st8283True38.9 +0.55105.7+0.59
13 Jun 26York1m177yGood412th8579—39.3 -0.3099.8+0.28
1 Nov 25Newmarket1mGood37th8886True39.7 +0.1094.2+0.12
3 Oct 25Ascot1mSoft33rd——True36.7 +0.1797.2+0.14
6 Aug 25Kempton Park1mStd/Slow41st——True39.7 +1.59107.2+0.32
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.52slow2f+0.57fast3f+0.43fast4f+0.41fast5f+0.30par6f+0.02par7fledslow1mledslow
Timed runs 2025-08-06 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
FRANKIES DREAM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 14.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 1m177y · Good — finished 12th vs 2nd, 9.65L behind · OR 85 v 81 · race median 79 (today 94)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-14.7L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SALAM DUBAWI (read through LEADENHALL, HALE END) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) (read through FINANCER, CRISTO, POINT OF CONTACT) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CROWN BOARD (IRE) (read through DUTCH DECOY, KITARO KICH) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HICKORY (IRE) (read through MYTHICAL GUEST, WHERE'S FREDDY, MADAME DE SEVIGNE, BOPEDRO) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C4→C2) — earned under different conditions9lb above his last winning mark (96 today vs 87)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 106, 15pts above his recent average of 91.0Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.2)Lost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, headway 3f out, led over 1f out, drew clear final 1f, readily”
#5 SPANISH VOICE MID
DRAW 1 · OR 94 · William Buick / Andrew Balding
MARKET 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
96 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 19pts off the top, a yard in form; solid late gains (8th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
96 · ranked #5 here · career best 104
Official mark (OR)
94 · last won off 92
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (2.79)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.54% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 91 last run (NEWMARKET · 9 Jul 26)
Headgear
Tongue strap · yard 15% with first-time gear (A/E 1.14)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 3 · 1m · rated 951stClass 3 · 1m · rated 10410thClass 2 · 1m · rated 891stClass 3 · 1m · rated 977thClass 4 · 1m1f110y · rated 86
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SPANISH VOICEneeds 111–115best 1042025-04-16 · TFR 92 · 1m2f · Good · C2 · off-trip2026-02-12 · TFR 83 · 1m2f · Std · C3 · off-trip2026-03-02 · TFR 59 · 1m4f · Std · C3 · off-trip2026-03-20 · TFR 86 · 1m1f103y · Std · C42026-05-02 · TFR 97 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C32026-05-16 · TFR 89 · 1m · Good · C22026-06-19 · TFR 104 · 1m · Good · C32026-07-09 · TFR 95 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C316 Apr 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2437 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ascot14/12611.1%0.985/4112.2%1.48
Above their last winning mark ✦49/28917.0%1.0524/9824.5%1.35
Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0549/21822.5%1.23
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1270/29323.9%1.22
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 105 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
William Buick · last 14 days: 10/24 · at Ascot: A/E 0.74 (n199) · with this yard: A/E 1.41 (n43)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 11
-0.49 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 11
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 11
7.32 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm35th9491True39.7 +0.1398.6+0.32
19 Jun 26Newmarket1mGood31st9289Fast early40.6 +0.1298.6—
16 May 26Newbury1mGood210th9295True38.8 -0.5699.5+0.02
2 May 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm31st8386True38.9 -0.09100.4+0.00
20 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd47th8583True38.6 -0.91103.8+0.00
2 Mar 26Kempton Park1m4fStd38th8588True37.7 -1.64102.4+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.50par2f+0.35par3f+0.23par4f+0.31par5f+0.33slow6fledpar7f+0.27slow1m+0.94slow
Timed runs 2026-03-02 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 1st, 5.55L behind · OR 94 v 91 · race median 91 (today 94)
HICKORY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
9 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 6th, 0.3L ahead · OR 94 v 94 · race median 91 (today 94)
BLUE RC (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 10th vs 9th, 0.3L behind · OR 92 v 101 · race median 95 (today 94)
Read through a common rival
vs URBAN LION (read through INDALO, EBT'S GUARD, COGITATE, CLASSIC) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) (read through MYTHICAL GUEST, TALIS EVOLVERE, STERLING KNIGHT, ANCIENT ROME) ≈ -4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) (read through STEM, GREEN TRIANGLE, PARLANDO, NOLTON CROSS) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SALAM DUBAWI (read through SPELL MASTER, PARLANDO, FIERCE FORTITUDE) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along over 2f out, one paced”
#6 HICKORY (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 93 · Saffie Osborne / Jamie Osborne
MARKET 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
94.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 21pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
94.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 102
Official mark (OR)
93 · last won off 86
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 25 tries · below market expectation (0.61)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.71% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 91 last run (NEWMARKET · 9 Jul 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 3 · 1m · rated 9411thClass 2 · 7f · rated 896thClass 3 · 1m · rated 9418thClass 2 · 7f · rated 822ndClass 2 · 7f · rated 102
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HICKORY (IRE)needs 111–115best 1022025-05-10 · TFR 97 · 7f · Firm · C22025-05-29 · TFR 91 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C32025-06-12 · TFR 87 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-26 · TFR 84 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-11 · TFR 90 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-26 · TFR 99 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22025-07-31 · TFR 83 · 1m143y · Std · C32025-08-14 · TFR 97 · 1m31y · Firm · C32025-09-05 · TFR 102 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C32025-10-04 · TFR 102 · 7f · Soft · C22026-05-09 · TFR 82 · 7f · Good · C22026-05-28 · TFR 94 · 1m · Good · C32026-06-18 · TFR 89 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22026-07-09 · TFR 94 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C310 May 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jamie Osborne · 782 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: over an unchanged trip, with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company4/1372.9%0.54/3611.1%1.85
Above their last winning mark17/13312.8%0.9910/6116.4%1.35
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦33/27811.9%1.2812/8314.5%1.23
In fields of 8-11 ✦36/32311.1%1.179/8310.8%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf24/2579.3%1.065/726.9%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)2/258.0%2.341/714.3%2.63
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 104 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
Saffie Osborne · last 14 days: 4/35 · at Ascot: A/E 1.82 (n92) · with this yard: A/E 1.08 (n521)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 11
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 11
+0.55s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed7th of 11
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 11
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm36th9491True39.3 -0.2299.9+0.73
18 Jun 26Ascot7fGd/Frm211th9596Slow early39.7 +0.00103.2+0.57
28 May 26Sandown Park1mGood36th9689True38.4 +0.00102.6+0.60
9 May 26Ascot7fGood218th9695True40.5 +0.2898.8+0.73
4 Oct 25Ascot7fSoft22nd9397Fast early37.9 +0.1797.2+0.36
5 Sep 25Ascot7fGd/Sft31st——True38.0 +0.39102.6+0.29
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.83slow2f+0.67par3f+0.49par4f+0.56par5f+0.53slow6f+0.38par7f+0.51slow1m+1.01par
Timed runs 2025-09-05 to 2026-07-09. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
9 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 1st, 5.85L behind · OR 94 v 91 · race median 91 (today 94)
SPANISH VOICE · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
9 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 5th, 0.3L behind · OR 94 v 94 · race median 91 (today 94)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-0.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) (read through TRIBAL CHIEF, GREAT ACCLAIM, MYTHICAL GUEST, FONDO BLANCO) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CROWN BOARD (IRE) (read through AKKADIAN THUNDER, WITCH HUNTER, ENGLISH OAK, BOYFRIEND) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GRIZEDALE (read through MYTHICAL GUEST, WHERE'S FREDDY, MADAME DE SEVIGNE, BOPEDRO) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FRANKIES DREAM (IRE) (read through DILIGENT RESDEV, STAR ANTHEM, PHYSIQUE, LEADMAN) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (93 today vs 86)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.82x market expectation)Lost roughly 3.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 10 here)Runs Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“blindfold removed late, mid-field, shaken up over 2f out, not quicken”
#7 CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 88 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET 16 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
94.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 21pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
94.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
88 · last won off 90
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 16 tries · beats market expectation (2.12)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.98% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 7lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 87 last run (DONCASTER · 18 Jul 26)
Headgear
Blinkers · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.36)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 7f · rated 945thClass 2 · 1m · rated 774thClass 3 · 7f132y · rated 783rdClass 2 · 1m · rated 949thClass 2 · 1m · rated 92
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE)needs 111–115best 972025-09-20 · TFR 94 · 7f · Soft · C32025-09-27 · TFR 88 · 7f211y · Good · C22025-10-24 · TFR 13 · 7f · Heavy · C32025-12-03 · TFR 97 · 7f · Std · C32026-03-07 · TFR 76 · 1m143y · Std · C22026-03-28 · TFR 92 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C22026-04-14 · TFR 94 · 1m · Good · C22026-05-09 · TFR 78 · 7f134y · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-25 · TFR 77 · 1m · Slow · C22026-07-18 · TFR 94 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C320 Sep 2518 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2111 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after within 7 days ✦9/5715.8%1.169/2536.0%1.8
Below their last winning mark3/358.6%0.897/3221.9%1.79
Over 7-8f trips65/6799.6%0.8836/22416.1%1.32
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8115/9316.1%1.27
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Ascot8/988.2%1.132/355.7%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 97 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
Sean Levey · last 14 days: 6/38 · at Ascot: A/E 1.07 (n103) · with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n815)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 11
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 11
+0.33s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 11
100.0%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 11
7.43 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jul 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm34th8987Slow early42.0 -0.05104.8+0.37
25 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow25th9091True40.0 +0.2896.0—
9 May 26Lingfield7f135yGd/Frm34th9188.5True42.6 +0.1895.0+0.22
14 Apr 26Newmarket1mGood23rd9191.5True38.9 +0.10100.3+0.63
28 Mar 26Doncaster1mGd/Sft29th9295True38.7 -0.39101.9+0.20
7 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd210th9292True39.4 +0.23102.0+0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.75very slow2f+0.75slow3f+0.66slow4f+0.56fast5f+0.49fast6f+0.24fast7f+0.23fast
Timed runs 2026-03-07 to 2026-07-18. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
URBAN LION · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L behind on today's terms · reverses
28 Mar 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 9th vs 1st, 3.95L behind · OR 92 v 98 · race median 95 (today 94)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SPANISH VOICE (read through MYTHICAL GUEST, TALIS EVOLVERE, STERLING KNIGHT, ANCIENT ROME) ≈ +4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HICKORY (IRE) (read through TRIBAL CHIEF, GREAT ACCLAIM, MYTHICAL GUEST, FONDO BLANCO) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) (read through MISTER WINSTON, THUNDER ROAR, TALIS EVOLVERE, STERLING KNIGHT) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) (read through ALPHA CRUCIS, TYCOON, KNIGHTS GOLD, CLOUDS HILL) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (88 today vs 90)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 94, 11pts above his recent average of 83.0Proven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 2.12)Stable in form this week — 6 wins from 31 runsLost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, pushed along 3f out, plugged on, never on terms”
#8 SALAM DUBAWI PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 87 · Harry Davies / Jim Goldie
MARKET 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
94 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 21pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
94 · ranked #8 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 81
Record at today's distance
1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.95)
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.36% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 14 places on the course scale (HAMILTON PARK 15th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 2 · 1m66y · rated 925thClass 2 · 1m2f66y · rated 953rdClass 3 · 1m · rated 9510thClass 2 · 1m2f · rated 701stClass 4 · 1m1f44y · rated 93
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SALAM DUBAWIneeds 111–115best 952026-04-26 · TFR 54 · 7f15y · Good · C42026-05-15 · TFR 93 · 1m1f35y · Good · C42026-05-25 · TFR 70 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2026-07-05 · TFR 95 · 1m · Good · C32026-07-11 · TFR 95 · 1m2f55y · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2026-07-16 · TFR 92 · 1m68y · Gd/Frm · C226 Apr 2616 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1477 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, in fields of 8-11, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.37/838.4%0.6
Coming back after 8 to 14 days66/31421.0%1.7112/1259.6%0.73
In Class 1-3 company18/1939.3%1.224/636.3%0.74
Above their last winning mark96/45321.2%1.4318/17110.5%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)1/616.7%3.890/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 95 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
Harry Davies · last 14 days: 5/30 · at Ascot: A/E 0.87 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n10)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 11
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 11
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length10th of 11
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Hamilton Park1m68yGd/Frm24th8792True40.2 -0.66104.2+0.00
11 Jul 26York1m2f56yGd/Frm23rd8795True40.2 +1.27102.6+0.25
5 Jul 26Ayr1mGood33rd8785True40.3 +0.12106.3+0.00
25 May 26Redcar1m2fGd/Frm210th8787True40.4 -1.44103.9+0.01
15 May 26Hamilton Park1m1f35yGood41st8174True38.8 -1.09101.4+0.15
26 Apr 26Musselburgh7f15yGood411th8181True40.7 +0.64101.8+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledslow2fledslow3fledpar4fledpar5fledpar6f+0.12fast7f+0.30fast1m+0.40fast
Timed runs 2026-04-26 to 2026-07-16. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 12.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
25 May 26 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 2nd, 12.85L behind · OR 87 v 85 · race median 87 (today 94)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-12.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs GRIZEDALE (read through LEADENHALL, HALE END) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) (read through WALSINGHAM, CELEBORN, PARLANDO, QUAI DE BETHUNE) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs URBAN LION (read through THEORYOFEVERYTHING, THUNDER RUN, HAND OF GOD, DIVINE KNIGHT) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HICKORY (IRE) (read through ENGLISH OAK, RAAMMEE) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 81)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.92 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Race-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
#9 SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 85 · David Egan / David O'Meara
MARKET 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
88.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 26.3pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; solid late gains (4th of 11 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
88.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
85 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.82% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (SANDOWN PARK 9th → ASCOT 1st) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 2 · 1m1f198y · rated 862ndClass 4 · 1m2f44y · rated 933rdClass 2 · 1m2f22y · rated 872ndClass 2 · 1m2f · rated 922ndClass 4 · 1m1f176y · rated 92
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE)needs 111–115best 932025-06-29 · TFR 84 · 1m · Good2025-07-26 · TFR 86 · 1m1f110y · Good2025-09-01 · TFR 87 · 1m2f64y · Gd/Sft · off-trip2025-09-14 · TFR 33 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · off-trip2025-10-10 · TFR 74 · 1m4f · Slow · off-trip2026-03-29 · TFR 90 · 1m2f44y · Gd/Sft · C3 · off-trip2026-04-16 · TFR 92 · 1m1f169y · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-25 · TFR 92 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2026-06-05 · TFR 87 · 1m2f18y · Gd/Sft · C2 · off-trip2026-06-20 · TFR 93 · 1m2f51y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-07-04 · TFR 86 · 1m1f209y · Gd/Frm · C229 Jun 254 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2033 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/817.4%0.54
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.918/1475.4%0.59
Coming back after 15 to 45 days107/79313.5%1.1118/2297.9%0.71
Over 7-8f trips90/72812.4%1.0215/2077.2%0.73
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)3/694.3%0.720/90.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 98 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 7/30 · at Ascot: A/E 0.34 (n138) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 11
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 11
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 11
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length11th of 11
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Sandown Park1m1f209yGd/Frm26th8693True38.2 -0.0996.3+0.16
20 Jun 26Nottingham1m2f50yGood42nd8685.5True38.5 +0.12104.3+0.00
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m2f17yGd/Sft23rd8698.5Fast early39.4 +0.84104.7+0.03
25 May 26Redcar1m2fGd/Frm22nd8587True41.2 -0.66108.5+0.07
16 Apr 26Ripon1m1f170yGd/Sft42nd8180True37.9 -0.59101.9+0.14
29 Mar 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Sft34th8187True36.3 -0.17101.2+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.45slow2f+0.50par3f+0.57par4f+0.50fast5f+0.56very fast6f+0.40very fast7f+0.36slow1m+0.03slow1m 1f+0.32very slow1m 2f+0.92very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SALAM DUBAWI · 1 meeting≈ 12.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
25 May 26 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 10th, 12.85L ahead · OR 85 v 87 · race median 87 (today 94)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+12.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs GRIZEDALE (read through FINANCER, CRISTO, POINT OF CONTACT) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs URBAN LION (read through STEM, ALPHA CRUCIS, DIVINE KNIGHT, TONY MONTANA) ≈ +3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) (read through ALPHA CRUCIS, TYCOON, KNIGHTS GOLD, CLOUDS HILL) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ASMEN WARRIOR (IRE) (read through STEM, PARLANDO, RATHGAR, SALLAAL) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 2 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, in touch under 3f out, shaken up 2f out, hung left final 1f, took second”
#10 FRANKIES DREAM (IRE) MID
DRAW 11 · OR 82 · William Pyle / Jennie Candlish
MARKET 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
87.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 27.3pts off the top, proven at the trip; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
87.7 · ranked #10 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.37)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.48% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 13lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 81 last run (YORK · 10 Jul 26)
Headgear
Hood
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 4 · 1m2f66y · rated 813rdClass 3 · 7f198y · rated 912ndClass 4 · 1m176y · rated 913rdClass 4 · 7f88y · rated 893rdClass 3 · 1m · rated 88
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FRANKIES DREAM (IRE)needs 111–115best 912025-01-24 · TFR 61 · 5f · Std · C6 · off-trip2025-02-01 · TFR 68 · 6f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-02-06 · TFR 66 · 4f213y · Std · C6 · off-trip2025-02-16 · TFR 61 · 5f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-03-12 · TFR 77 · 6f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-03-13 · TFR 79 · 5f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-03-20 · TFR 78 · 6f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-04-12 · TFR 74 · 6f18y · Good · C52025-04-25 · TFR 77 · 7f · Good · C52025-05-05 · TFR 84 · 7f97y · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-14 · TFR 79 · 7f · Good · C32025-05-31 · TFR 89 · 7f · Firm · C42025-06-14 · TFR 77 · 7f128y · Soft · C22025-07-19 · TFR 72 · 6f211y · Gd/Frm · C42026-04-18 · TFR 70 · 7f · Good · C42026-05-16 · TFR 88 · 1m · Good · C32026-05-30 · TFR 89 · 7f97y · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-13 · TFR 91 · 1m176y · Good · C42026-06-27 · TFR 91 · 7f191y · Good · C32026-07-10 · TFR 81 · 1m2f55y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip24 Jan 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jennie Candlish · 488 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)16/12512.8%1.283/1520.0%1.43
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company7/5512.7%1.660/160.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark25/10823.1%1.442/405.0%0.39
In fields of 8-1123/19212.0%1.024/775.2%0.45
Over 7-8f trips16/12712.6%1.255/539.4%0.69
On turf27/20113.4%1.327/779.1%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)1/333.3%8.24—
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 94 is below the ~111.0 the race demands
The rider
William Pyle · last 14 days: 0/21 · at Ascot: A/E 0 (n4) · with this yard: A/E 1.01 (n16)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 11
+0.29s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 11
102.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 11
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26York1m2f56yGd/Frm47th8381True38.7 -0.23100.2+0.13
27 Jun 26York7f192yGood33rd8383True39.9 -0.16103.2+0.09
13 Jun 26York1m177yGood42nd8179—39.6 +0.03103.5+0.23
30 May 26Beverley7f96yGd/Frm43rd8181True40.9 +0.6596.7+0.54
16 May 26Thirsk1mGood33rd8183True41.2 +1.40107.4+0.37
18 Apr 26Thirsk7fGood411th8381True39.9 -0.32103.9+0.37
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledfast3fledvery fast4fledfast5fledslow6fledslow7f+0.15very slow1m+0.20slow1m 1f+0.75very slow1m 2f+1.45very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-18 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
GRIZEDALE · 1 meeting≈ 14.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 1m177y · Good — finished 2nd vs 12th, 9.65L ahead · OR 81 v 85 · race median 79 (today 94)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+14.7L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BLUE RC (IRE) (read through ESHERANN, CITY OF POETS, BENACRE, NEW IMAGE) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs URBAN LION (read through HOT CASH, LEADMAN, WAHDAN, PEARL EYE) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) (read through ESHERANN, GLENFINNAN, PERFECT PART, RARE CHANGE) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HICKORY (IRE) (read through DILIGENT RESDEV, STAR ANTHEM, PHYSIQUE, LEADMAN) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, went clear before halfway, headed over 1f out, weakened”
#11 URBAN LION PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 101 · Tom Marquand / Jack Channon
MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 40pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #11 here · career best 108
Official mark (OR)
101 · last won off 98
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.98)
Days since last run
38
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.29% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 94 vs 102 last run (ASCOT · 17 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
26thClass 2 · 1m · rated 7524thClass 2 · 1m · rated 411stClass 2 · 1m · rated 1089thClass 2 · 1m1f · rated 9313thClass 2 · 7f198y · rated 95
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for URBAN LIONneeds 111–115best 1082025-02-27 · TFR 93 · 1m · Slow · C42025-04-12 · TFR 100 · 1m · Good · C22025-06-14 · TFR 104 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22025-06-18 · TFR 104 · 1m · Firm · C22025-08-09 · TFR 108 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-21 · TFR 95 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-27 · TFR 93 · 1m1f · Gd/Frm · C22026-03-28 · TFR 108 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C22026-04-18 · TFR 41 · 1m · Good · C22026-06-17 · TFR 75 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C227 Feb 2517 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Channon · 757 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, when the yard has won in the last 3 days
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦45/24118.7%1.3614/8117.3%1.38
Above their last winning mark27/14418.8%1.256/3318.2%1.27
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ascot (small sample)0/140.0%0.01/119.1%1.25
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 111 at/around today's trip, clears the ~111.0 demand
The rider
Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 4/44 · at Ascot: A/E 1.07 (n176) · with this yard: A/E 1.42 (n67)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 94 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 11
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 11
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 11
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 11
7.43 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot1mGd/Frm226th102102True39.7 +0.3191.5+0.24
18 Apr 26Newbury1mGood224th10297True39.0 +0.0290.7+0.43
28 Mar 26Doncaster1mGd/Sft21st9895True39.6 +0.56101.7+0.42
27 Sep 25Newmarket1m1fGd/Frm29th9996True38.7 -0.21101.5+0.23
21 Aug 25York7f192yGd/Frm213th9896True40.4 -0.07103.3+0.15
9 Aug 25Ascot7f213yGd/Frm23rd9898True39.3 +0.00107.0+0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.24fast2f+0.18par3f+0.14par4f+0.30par5f+0.18par6f+0.14slow7f+0.67very slow1m+3.19very slow
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-06-17. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
CHRISTIAN DAVID (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · confirms
28 Mar 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 1st vs 9th, 3.95L ahead · OR 98 v 92 · race median 95 (today 94)
BLUE RC (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 15.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
17 Jun 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 26th vs 2nd, 18.05L behind · OR 102 v 100 · race median 102 (today 94)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-7.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SPANISH VOICE (read through INDALO, EBT'S GUARD, COGITATE, CLASSIC) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CROWN BOARD (IRE) (read through WITCH HUNTER, EBT'S GUARD, CLASSIC, BOYFRIEND) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPOKEN TRUTH (IRE) (read through STEM, ALPHA CRUCIS, DIVINE KNIGHT, TONY MONTANA) ≈ -3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FRANKIES DREAM (IRE) (read through HOT CASH, LEADMAN, WAHDAN, PEARL EYE) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (101 today vs 98)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayProven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.98)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along under 3f out, weakened final 1f, eased”