FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chester · 13:53
Class 5 · 1m4f64y · Good (Good to Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 65
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 10 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:48 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good (Good to Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 56131.1%63.9%29.5%65.6%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
mid fields (8-11)6921.7%46.4%20.3%46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (82% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, SISTERANDBROTHER leads on 72, 0pts clear of AL MASLOOL and MR MOONSHINE (IRE) (both 72) — flagged on our watch list. The case against the top pick: stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings and habitually slow from the stalls. The shape danger is AL MASLOOL — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making AL MASLOOL the 30% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 8
SISTERANDBROTHER
OR 65 · Taryn Langley / Joey Ramsden
MARKET drifting 12 → 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (24 tries, beats market expectation at 1.62)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 5
AL MASLOOL
OR 66 · Jason Watson / William Haggas
MARKET backed 3.8 → 3.35 · the market rates it a 30% chance
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Rated #2 in this field (72.0)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
MR MOONSHINE (IRE)
OR 66 · Oisin James Orr / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (72.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1AL MASLOOLnet +10figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band
2OTTOMAN (IRE)net +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, quickest early type, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3SISTERANDBROTHERnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band, proven at trip, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency − steps into much stronger company by the marks, habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
SISTERANDBROTHER carries stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings and habitually slow from the stalls. AL MASLOOL is the one to beat it — an edge SISTERANDBROTHER lacks: fits the winner profile on market position.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 38% · prominent racers 33% (24 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Flat, very short (~240y) — favours horses already on/near the pace finish. Winners’ energy signature: 47.65% spent early (band 47.22–48.44%, 35 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.25s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
17 similar races at CHESTER, 11.8-12.8f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (82% from the first three favourites). 29% won last time out, 41% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
35% 4yo
35% 3yo
24% 6yo+
Last ran
53% 15-45d
35% within 14d
6% 91d+
Market
47% favourite
35% 3rd favourite
18% 4th+ in the market
LTO form
41% placed last time
29% won last time
29% unplaced last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–10
12345678910
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–10).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SISTERANDBROTHER is 1/10 on softer ground · AL MASLOOL is 0/2 on softer ground · MR MOONSHINE (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
IMPERIAL TROOPER (IRE) MID 48.8% 105.1 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
RETURN WITH GOLD (IRE) PROMINENT 47.2% 107.2 a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and finds plenty late
SISTERANDBROTHER HELD-UP 48.3% 106.6 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
YOKKELL (IRE) HELD-UP 49.2% 103.3 a genuine turn of foot — 7th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
OTTOMAN (IRE) PROMINENT 50.6% 100.8 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
GREY FABLE (IRE) HELD-UP 48.5% 102.3 solid late gains (9th of 10 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
AL MASLOOL HELD-UP 47.8% 107.7 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MR MOONSHINE (IRE) HELD-UP 48.8% 102.3 solid late gains (8th of 10 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
KINDLY QUEEN (IRE) PROMINENT 47.4% 104.8 a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
RISK AVERSE REBEL (IRE) MID 48.0% 104.9 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
OTTOMAN (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.14s off the field’s best
KINDLY QUEEN (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.21s off the best)
RETURN WITH GOLD (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.27s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 SISTERANDBROTHER HELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR 65 · Taryn Langley / Joey Ramsden
MARKET drifting 12 → 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 24 tries · beats market expectation (1.62)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s)
Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 106.56% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 23 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 65 vs 59 last run (BEVERLEY · 3 Jul 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 1m4f22y · rated 727thClass 4 · 1m2f66y · rated 585thClass 5 · 1m4f44y · rated 631stClass 6 · 1m4f22y · rated 672ndClass 5 · 1m3f22y · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SISTERANDBROTHERbest 86needs 73–742025-02-22 · TFR 50 · 1m13y · Std · C4 · off-trip2025-03-29 · TFR 54 · 1m2f44y · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-04-11 · TFR 86 · 2m · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-04-16 · TFR 64 · 1m4f22y · Gd/Sft · C52025-04-24 · TFR 57 · 1m1f207y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-06-24 · TFR 57 · 1m4f22y · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-29 · TFR 58 · 1m1f207y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-08-05 · TFR 59 · 1m4f13y · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-25 · TFR 44 · 1m2f189y · Gd/Frm · C62025-12-09 · TFR 58 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C62025-12-18 · TFR 49 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62025-12-27 · TFR 58 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C62026-01-04 · TFR 53 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-01-14 · TFR 63 · 1m4f · Slow · C62026-01-30 · TFR 52 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-04-15 · TFR 59 · 1m4f22y · Gd/Sft · C62026-04-30 · TFR 62 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-05-16 · TFR 64 · 1m3f198y · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-21 · TFR 62 · 1m3f22y · Std · C52026-05-27 · TFR 67 · 1m4f22y · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-29 · TFR 63 · 1m4f51y · Std · C52026-06-27 · TFR 58 · 1m2f55y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-07-03 · TFR 72 · 1m4f22y · Gd/Frm · C622 Feb 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Joey Ramsden · 164 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf0/10.0%0.05/4112.2%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days1/147.1%0.91/561.8%0.17
In fields of 8-111/175.9%0.733/734.1%0.34
In Class 4-5 company1/119.1%1.662/444.5%0.45
At this time of year (Q3)—1/185.6%0.5
Above their last winning mark1/616.7%1.685/3912.8%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
Taryn Langley · last 14 days: 0/10 · with this yard: A/E 1.96 (n8)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 10
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 10
+0.35s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 10
106.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 10
6.97 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Beverley1m4f23yGd/Frm61st6159—37.1 +0.00102.5-0.06—
27 Jun 26York1m2f56yGood47th6175True38.0 -0.62104.4+0.67
29 May 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd55th6264—37.1 +0.04103.5+0.54
27 May 26Beverley1m4f23yGd/Frm61st5856.5True38.1 +0.17108.5+0.00
21 May 26Southwell1m3f23yStd52nd5658—39.4 +0.34116.5+0.62
16 May 26Doncaster1m3f197yGd/Frm61st5657True37.3 +0.45104.0—
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs IMPERIAL TROOPER (IRE) (read through URBAN ROAD, CAVALRY CALL, JACK SPAROWE, ANA EMARAATY) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs YOKKELL (IRE) (read through STAR START, HE'S OUR CRACKER) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RETURN WITH GOLD (IRE) (read through SWEET CICELY, ARTH'S GOLD, PRIDE OF NEPAL, CHILLHI) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OTTOMAN (IRE) (read through LENNY'S SPIRIT, GLITTER CODE, ENDOFASTORM, MY O MY) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 61)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (24 tries, beats market expectation at 1.62)Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway over 2f out, led final 1f, drew clear”
#2 AL MASLOOL HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 66 · Jason Watson / William Haggas
MARKET backed 3.8 → 3.35 · the market rates it a 30% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), fits the winner profile on market position; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
66 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.72% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 21 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 20% with first-time gear (A/E 1.32)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 722ndClass 4 · 1m3f132y · rated 7411thClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 685thClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 697thClass 4 · 1m · rated 67
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for AL MASLOOLbest 74needs 73–742026-02-21 · TFR 54 · 1m · Std · C4 · off-trip2026-03-05 · TFR 72 · 1m · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-04-11 · TFR 67 · 1m · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-04-23 · TFR 69 · 1m1f207y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-06-12 · TFR 68 · 1m1f209y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-06-18 · TFR 74 · 1m3f132y · Good · C42026-07-02 · TFR 72 · 1m2f51y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip21 Feb 262 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Haggas · 1593 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Cieren Fallon
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.127/6610.6%0.48
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦138/63321.8%0.9827/16216.7%0.78
In Class 4-5 company164/66824.6%1.0327/14518.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)5/1926.3%1.441/714.3%0.61
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
Jason Watson · last 14 days: 6/26 · at Chester: A/E 0.97 (n99) · with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 10
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 10
+0.33s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 10
107.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 10
6.99 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Nottingham1m2f50yGd/Frm53rd6766True38.9 +0.34106.6+0.31
18 Jun 26Lingfield1m3f133yGood42nd——True39.7 +1.06111.2+0.50
12 Jun 26Sandown Park1m1f209yGood411th7177.5Slow early36.9 -0.28105.0+0.70
23 Apr 26Beverley1m1f207yGood45th——Slow early38.4 -0.49104.5+0.13
11 Apr 26Yarmouth1mGood47th——Slow early39.8 +0.08106.5+0.21
5 Mar 26Lingfield1mStd53rd——True40.9 +0.46112.4+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.77slow2f+0.89slow3f+0.83par4f+0.84par5f+0.70fast6f+0.64par7f+0.61very slow1m+0.62par1m 1f+0.61par1m 2f+0.30very fast
Timed runs 2026-03-05 to 2026-07-02. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Rated #2 in this field (72.0)Only 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 17 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“missed break, off pace, effort over 2f out, edged left, plugged on”
#3 MR MOONSHINE (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 66 · Oisin James Orr / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (3rd), sharp from the stalls; solid late gains (8th of 10 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
66 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.6s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.33% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (HAMILTON PARK 15th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 1m3f22y · rated 725thClass 5 · 1m1f · rated 664thClass 5 · 1m110y · rated 602ndClass 5 · 1m · rated 705thClass 5 · 7f88y · rated 65
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MR MOONSHINE (IRE)needs 73–74best 722025-06-14 · TFR 58 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-06-30 · TFR 58 · 7f35y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-07-29 · TFR 65 · 7f97y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-09-06 · TFR 70 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2025-09-17 · TFR 60 · 1m99y · Soft · C5 · off-trip2026-06-09 · TFR 66 · 1m1f · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2026-07-11 · TFR 72 · 1m3f15y · Good · C514 Jun 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11—23/18412.5%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips—0/140.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—4/656.2%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
Oisin James Orr · last 14 days: 3/17 · at Chester: A/E 0.42 (n30) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n93)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 10
-0.27 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 10
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 10
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 10
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Hamilton Park1m3f15yGood52nd6465Slow early40.6 +0.07114.0+0.00
9 Jun 26Carlisle1m1fGd/Sft55th6667—35.3 +0.0599.9+0.00—
17 Sep 25Beverley1m100ySoft54th6666Fast early38.3 -0.7189.3+0.00
6 Sep 25Thirsk1mGd/Sft52nd6669Fast early38.9 -0.94101.3+0.00
29 Jul 25Beverley7f96yGd/Frm55th——Slow early39.4 +0.00106.2+0.00
30 Jun 25Wolverhampton7f36ySlow54th——Slow early38.6 -0.07103.3+0.06
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.13slow2f+0.09very slow3f+0.12slow4f+0.23slow5f+0.08par6f+0.13slow7f+0.08slow1m+0.06par1m 1f+0.06very fast1m 2fledvery fast1m 3f+0.01very fast
Timed runs 2025-06-30 to 2026-07-11. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Rated #3 in this field (72.0)Only 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.2 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, struggling 3f out, plugged on”
#4 YOKKELL (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 4 · OR 64 · Edward Greatrex / Adrian Wintle
MARKET drifting 5.7 → 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 2pts off the top, fit and race-ready; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · in line with the market (0.97)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.26% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 30 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 9lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 65 vs 56 last run (BATH · 15 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 1m3f132y · rated 704thClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 645thClass 6 · 1m44y · rated 663rdClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 676thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 61
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for YOKKELL (IRE)best 109needs 73–742025-04-29 · TFR 88 · 1m75y · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-06-01 · TFR 84 · 1m75y · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-06-14 · TFR 63 · 1m2f70y · Soft · C32025-07-19 · TFR 64 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2025-08-07 · TFR 71 · 1m13y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-08-30 · TFR 58 · 7f · Soft · C3 · off-trip2025-11-04 · TFR 58 · 1m · Std · C4 · off-trip2025-11-19 · TFR 59 · 1m3f · Std · C42025-12-04 · TFR 57 · 1m2f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-12-15 · TFR 51 · 1m143y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-03-10 · TFR 61 · 1m1f103y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-04-25 · TFR 67 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2026-05-09 · TFR 66 · 1m53y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2026-06-23 · TFR 64 · 1m2f · Good · C5 · off-trip2026-07-15 · TFR 70 · 1m3f136y · Firm · C629 Apr 2515 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Wintle · 589 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/14212.0%0.944/1822.2%1.34
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company7/1096.4%0.882/336.1%0.62
In fields of 8-11 ✦21/2568.2%0.787/1016.9%0.72
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)1/616.7%1.450/10.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)1/303.3%0.272/825.0%1.85
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
Edward Greatrex · last 14 days: 0/16 · at Chester: A/E 0.73 (n24) · with this yard: A/E 2.02 (n6)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 10
+0.18 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 10
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 10
103.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 10
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jul 26Bath1m3f137yFirm61st6056True38.1 +0.50104.4—
23 Jun 26Ffos Las1m2fGood54th6262.5True39.2 +0.02106.1+0.03
9 May 26Leicester1m53yGd/Frm65th6262True38.3 -0.02101.4+0.18
25 Apr 26Leicester1m2fGd/Frm63rd6056True40.6 +0.42101.5+0.68
10 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd66th6361True38.4 -0.06105.2+0.00
15 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m142yStd57th6770True38.5 +0.21100.9+0.60
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.58par2f+1.03very slow3f+0.98slow4f+0.84slow5f+0.82very slow6f+0.94slow7f+1.10par1m+0.99fast1m 1f+0.58fast1m 2f+0.41fast1m 3f+0.13fast1m 4fledvery fast
Timed runs 2025-12-15 to 2026-07-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs OTTOMAN (IRE) (read through BEAUTY GENERATION, HAPPY CHANDLER, STUDY UP, SHABU SHABU) ≈ +5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RETURN WITH GOLD (IRE) (read through BLACKWATER LILLY, MEET ME IN MERAKI, FLAINE, SHAHBAZ) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SISTERANDBROTHER (read through STAR START, HE'S OUR CRACKER) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IMPERIAL TROOPER (IRE) (read through UP THE JAZZ, BOUBYAN, I AM ME, RUN WITH IT) ≈ -0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (64 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“waited with, headway over 2f out, switched over 1f out, led final 100 yds”
#5 KINDLY QUEEN (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 9 · OR 65 · Jason Hart / Christopher Kellett
MARKET drifting 14.5 → 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 2pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
65 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 104.8% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 6 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 1m3f88y · rated 705thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 572ndClass 5 · 1m3f88y · rated 694thClass 6 · 1m4f · rated 693rdClass 3 · 1m2f · rated 63
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for KINDLY QUEEN (IRE)needs 73–74best 702025-12-17 · TFR 64 · 1m3f · Std · C42026-01-16 · TFR 68 · 1m1f103y · Std · C3 · off-trip2026-02-14 · TFR 63 · 1m2f · Std · C3 · off-trip2026-03-30 · TFR 69 · 1m4f · Slow · C62026-05-11 · TFR 69 · 1m3f99y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-11 · TFR 57 · 1m4f · Gd/Sft · C42026-06-27 · TFR 70 · 1m3f99y · Gd/Frm · C517 Dec 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christopher Kellett · 109 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf5/687.4%0.811/137.7%1.68
In fields of 8-116/5510.9%1.271/156.7%1.36
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company0/240.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/454.4%0.490/130.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)3/2910.3%0.930/10.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)4/3910.3%1.340/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~73.0 the race demands
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 9/48 · at Chester: A/E 0.85 (n87) · with this yard: A/E 2.11 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 10
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 10
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 10
104.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 10
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Windsor1m3f99yGd/Frm53rd6667True39.7 -0.12109.4—
11 Jun 26Newbury1m4fGd/Sft45th6872Fast early38.1 +0.3296.4-0.07
11 May 26Windsor1m3f99yGd/Frm52nd6565True39.8 +0.70106.4+0.44
30 Mar 26Kempton Park1m4fSlow64th6560True37.0 -0.22107.0+0.33
14 Feb 26Lingfield1m2fStd33rd——True38.4 -0.06106.0+0.04
16 Jan 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd33rd——True37.2 +0.00103.6+0.32
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery slow2fledpar3fledpar4fledpar5fledfast6fledfast7fledpar1mledfast1m 1f+0.04fast1m 2f+0.22fast1m 3f+0.39fast
Timed runs 2026-01-16 to 2026-06-27. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led until around 3f out, dropped away gradually”
#6 OTTOMAN (IRE) PROMINENT DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 3 · OR 60 · David Probert / Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
MARKET backed 11.5 → 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 53
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.42)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.81% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 25 places on the course scale (LEICESTER 30th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 65 vs 61.5 last run (LEICESTER · 14 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 1m3f176y · rated 695thClass 6 · 1m3f44y · rated 462ndClass 6 · 1m3f176y · rated 583rdClass 6 · 1m3f132y · rated 578thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 42
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OTTOMAN (IRE)needs 73–74best 692025-04-07 · TFR 58 · 1m · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-04-21 · TFR 50 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-05-14 · TFR 60 · 1m2f37y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-06-03 · TFR 64 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-06-21 · TFR 59 · 1m2f99y · Good · C52025-07-05 · TFR 63 · 1m2f51y · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-09-01 · TFR 52 · 1m3f99y · Soft · C52025-09-09 · TFR 61 · 1m2f · Firm · C5 · off-trip2025-10-06 · TFR 49 · 1m143y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-05-26 · TFR 42 · 1m2f · Firm · C6 · off-trip2026-06-13 · TFR 57 · 1m3f136y · Good · C62026-06-25 · TFR 58 · 1m3f178y · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-09 · TFR 46 · 1m3f40y · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-14 · TFR 69 · 1m3f178y · Gd/Frm · C67 Apr 2514 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero · 96 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 11f+ trips0/240.0%0.03/650.0%3.72
On turf1/492.0%0.363/1030.0%2.68
In fields of 8-110/510.0%0.01/520.0%1.74
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 4-5 company (small sample)0/440.0%0.02/366.7%10.19
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)0/310.0%0.02/366.7%4.02
At Chester (small sample)0/30.0%0.0—
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)0/110.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark (small sample)0/60.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 70 is below the ~73.0 the race demands
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 8/41 · at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n70) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 10
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 10
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 10
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 10
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jul 26Leicester1m3f179yGd/Frm61st5361.5—37.5 +0.00100.6+0.31—
9 Jul 26Carlisle1m3f39yGd/Frm65th5354.5True39.7 +0.24100.5+0.35
25 Jun 26Leicester1m3f179yGd/Frm62nd5249.5True37.7 -0.09104.8+0.00
13 Jun 26Bath1m3f137yGood63rd5350True38.0 +0.1498.5+0.03
26 May 26Leicester1m2fFirm68th5557True39.3 -0.22101.9-0.04
6 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m142yStd610th5756.5Fast early38.6 -0.2798.5+0.18
Timed runs 2025-10-06 to 2026-07-14. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs YOKKELL (IRE) (read through BEAUTY GENERATION, HAPPY CHANDLER, STUDY UP, SHABU SHABU) ≈ -5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SISTERANDBROTHER (read through LENNY'S SPIRIT, GLITTER CODE, ENDOFASTORM, MY O MY) ≈ -0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (60 today vs 53)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 69, 11pts above his recent average of 57.7Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“soon led, went clear after 2f, joined over 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra”
#7 RETURN WITH GOLD (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 67 · Harry Russell / Ollie Pears
MARKET drifting 15.5 → 42 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
66.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 5.3pts off the top, a yard in form; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
66.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.29)
Days since last run
203
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 107.18% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 16 places on the course scale (SOUTHWELL 21st → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 5 · 1m3f22y · rated 661stClass 6 · 1m3f22y · rated 673rdClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 671stClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 63
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RETURN WITH GOLD (IRE)needs 73–74best 672025-01-31 · TFR 63 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-02-24 · TFR 67 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C62025-04-30 · TFR 67 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-01-03 · TFR 66 · 1m3f22y · Std · C531 Jan 253 Jan 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 203 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ollie Pears · 333 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-1116/1689.5%1.341/352.9%0.32
In Class 4-5 company11/1298.5%1.422/336.1%0.52
On turf16/1769.1%1.34/488.3%0.63
Above their last winning mark3/486.2%0.611/137.7%0.67
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)2/1315.4%1.170/40.0%0.0
Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~73.0 the race demands
The rider
Harry Russell · last 14 days: 4/14 · at Chester: A/E 1.1 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n159)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 10
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 10
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 10
107.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 10
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jan 26Southwell1m3f23yStd54th6767Slow early38.6 -0.47111.3-0.04
30 Apr 25Southwell1m3f23yStd61st6261True37.4 +0.55109.7+0.02
24 Feb 25Wolverhampton1m4f51ySlow63rd6258True38.1 +0.35108.1+0.11
3 Dec 24Newcastle1mStandard—8th——True37.6 -0.45102.6+0.42
21 Nov 24Southwell1m13yStandard—6th——True38.5 -0.06104.1—
7 Nov 24Newcastle1mStandard—9th———39.0 +0.05—+0.85—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery fast2fledfast3fledvery slow4fledvery slow5fledvery slow6fledvery slow7fledslow1mledvery fast1m 1f+0.12fast1m 2f+0.24very fast1m 3f+0.69fast
Timed runs 2024-11-07 to 2026-01-03 · last timed run 203 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 have no 0-20mph split; 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs IMPERIAL TROOPER (IRE) (read through GOLSPIE, BEARWITH, ARTH'S GOLD, KING'S HAND) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs YOKKELL (IRE) (read through BLACKWATER LILLY, MEET ME IN MERAKI, FLAINE, SHAHBAZ) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SISTERANDBROTHER (read through SWEET CICELY, ARTH'S GOLD, PRIDE OF NEPAL, CHILLHI) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (67 today vs 62)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceReturns from 203 days offRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dictated, headed around 3f out, plugged on”
#8 GREY FABLE (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 59 · Ray Dawson / Karl Thornton, Ireland
MARKET backed 9.4 → 7.4 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 10pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
62.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 56
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (1.55)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.29% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 10lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 65 vs 55 last run (LIMERICK · 11 Jul 26)
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 1m4f66y · rated 629thClass 6 · 1m4f198y · rated 361stClass 6 · 1m4f · rated 6714thClass 6 · 1m4f22y · rated —4thClass 5 · 1m7f · rated 44
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GREY FABLE (IRE)best 75needs 73–742025-05-31 · TFR 60 · 1m7f196y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-09-05 · TFR 68 · 1m2f145y · Good2025-09-13 · TFR 61 · 1m4f64y · Good · C42025-10-17 · TFR 69 · 1m2f150y · Std2025-10-29 · TFR 66 · 1m4f · Slow2025-11-21 · TFR 63 · 1m2f150y · Slow2026-04-10 · TFR 59 · 1m4f · Std · C62026-05-05 · TFR 44 · 1m7f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2026-05-26 · TFR 67 · 1m4f · Std · C62026-06-20 · TFR 36 · 1m4f207y · Soft · C62026-07-11 · TFR 62 · 1m4f66y · Good · C631 May 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Karl Thornton, Ireland · 73 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days1/911.1%1.271/714.3%4.33
At this time of year (Q3)2/238.7%1.141/714.3%2.84
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark1/911.1%0.780/100.0%0.0
On turf3/368.3%1.231/224.5%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 4-5 company (small sample)3/1323.1%1.380/10.0%0.0
At Chester (small sample)3/1225.0%1.430/10.0%0.0
In fields of 8-11 (small sample)2/1711.8%1.110/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 7/28 · at Chester: A/E 0.45 (n26) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 10
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 36.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 10
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 10
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 10
6.94 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 May 26Ayr1m7fGd/Frm54th59——37.4 -0.1799.3—
13 Sep 25Chester1m4f63yGood46th6573True36.9 -0.03102.9+0.12
31 May 25Chester1m7f196yGood47th6876True36.5 +0.0195.4+0.30
14 Sep 24Chester1m4f63ySoft42nd6871True36.0 +0.86107.3+0.17
27 Jul 24Chester1m4f63yGood51st6364True—105.3—
13 Jul 24Chester1m4f63ySoft51st5967True35.8 +0.32103.5+0.21
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.55 2f+1.45 3f+1.88 4f+2.78 5f+3.86 6f+4.96 7f+5.19 1m+5.21 1m 1f+4.91 1m 2f+4.39 1m 3f+3.68 1m 4f+3.00 1m 5f+2.60 1m 6f+2.94 1m 7f+3.96 
Timed runs 2024-07-13 to 2026-05-05. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs IMPERIAL TROOPER (IRE) (read through SECRET BEACH, ROYAL ALLIANCE, OMAN) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (59 today vs 56)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.55)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 6 here)
LTO comment
“tracked pace, effort home turn, faded”
#9 RISK AVERSE REBEL (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 49 · Grace McEntee / Gary Hanmer
MARKET drifting 18 → 26 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 3−
56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 16pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 57
Official mark (OR)
49 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.9% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 27 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 13lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 65 vs 52 last run (WOLVERHAMPTON · 16 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 563rdClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 545thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 354thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 523rdClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 57
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RISK AVERSE REBEL (IRE)needs 73–74best 572025-09-27 · TFR 50 · 7f211y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-11-08 · TFR 34 · 6f · Heavy · C4 · off-trip2026-03-09 · TFR 55 · 1m143y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-03-13 · TFR 57 · 1m1f103y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-03-30 · TFR 52 · 1m1f103y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-04-24 · TFR 35 · 1m2f44y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2026-06-02 · TFR 54 · 1m4f51y · Std · C62026-06-16 · TFR 56 · 1m4f51y · Std · C627 Sep 2516 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gary Hanmer · 79 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chester1/714.3%4.41/128.3%2.2
Over 11f+ trips0/190.0%0.01/812.5%2.11
In Class 4-5 company2/238.7%2.531/137.7%1.84
On turf2/229.1%1.461/185.6%1.76
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/267.7%1.530/90.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/166.2%1.580/60.0%0.0
In fields of 8-111/273.7%0.820/170.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 57 is below the ~73.0 the race demands
The rider
Grace McEntee · last 14 days: 0/5 · at Chester: A/E 0 (n6)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 10
+0.16 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 37.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 10
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 10
104.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 10
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd63rd4952True37.4 -0.35104.0-0.03
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd63rd4958.5True37.1 +0.25103.7+0.03
24 Apr 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Frm55th5067True37.8 +0.0099.5+0.22
30 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd64th5063True37.8 +0.00107.0+0.04
13 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd63rd5050True38.8 +1.03108.7+0.53
9 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd63rd5050True38.5 +0.02106.5+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.25fast2f+0.38fast3f+0.31fast4f+0.34fast5f+0.43par6f+0.38slow7f+0.34par1m+0.19slow1m 1f+0.17very slow1m 2f+0.31slow1m 3f+0.45par1m 4f+0.48slow
Timed runs 2026-03-09 to 2026-06-16. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Only 2 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“in touch, challenged over 2f out, left behind by winner from 2f out, wandered final 1f, lost place close home”
#10 IMPERIAL TROOPER (IRE) MID
DRAW 10 · OR 67 · George Wood / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 12.5 → 40 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−
49.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 22.3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
49.7 · ranked #10 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
67 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
64
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.06% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 3615thClass 4 · 1m4f66y · rated 413rdClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 723rdClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 746thClass 5 · 1m3f · rated 73
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for IMPERIAL TROOPER (IRE)best 81needs 73–742025-04-26 · TFR 64 · 7f211y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-05-29 · TFR 81 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2025-07-03 · TFR 54 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-09-04 · TFR 78 · 1m2f42y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-09-20 · TFR 58 · 1m2f70y · Heavy · C42025-10-18 · TFR 38 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2026-01-20 · TFR 78 · 1m2f42y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-02-04 · TFR 73 · 1m3f · Std · C52026-03-05 · TFR 74 · 1m2f42y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-04-20 · TFR 72 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2026-05-08 · TFR 41 · 1m4f64y · Good · C42026-05-22 · TFR 36 · 1m2f42y · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip26 Apr 2522 May 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jennie Candlish · 488 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chester6/4413.6%1.593/2313.0%2.0
At this time of year (Q3)16/12512.8%1.283/1520.0%1.43
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 46 to 90 days2/365.6%0.680/170.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips8/829.8%0.781/372.7%0.3
In fields of 8-1123/19212.0%1.024/775.2%0.45
In Class 4-5 company25/16914.8%1.414/785.1%0.47
On turf27/20113.4%1.327/779.1%0.79
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
George Wood · last 14 days: 2/33 · at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n58) · with this yard: A/E 1 (n176)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 65 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 10
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 10
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 10
105.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length10th of 10
6.80 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 May 26Haydock Park1m2f42yGd/Sft56th6965True37.2 +0.3596.2+0.17
8 May 26Chester1m4f63yGood415th7176True38.0 -0.2995.8—
20 Apr 26Redcar1m2fGd/Frm53rd7172True39.2 +0.05106.8+0.02
5 Mar 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd53rd7169.5Slow early40.0 +0.03117.3-0.10
4 Feb 26Kempton Park1m3fStd56th7269True38.1 +0.01102.9-0.09
20 Jan 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd52nd7268Slow early39.0 +0.55111.5+0.07
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.96par2f+1.20par3f+1.06par4f+1.15slow5f+0.92par6f+1.13par7f+1.06fast1m+1.01slow1m 1f+1.93very slow1m 2f+4.29very slow
Timed runs 2026-01-20 to 2026-05-22. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs RETURN WITH GOLD (IRE) (read through GOLSPIE, BEARWITH, ARTH'S GOLD, KING'S HAND) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GREY FABLE (IRE) (read through SECRET BEACH, ROYAL ALLIANCE, OMAN) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SISTERANDBROTHER (read through URBAN ROAD, CAVALRY CALL, JACK SPAROWE, ANA EMARAATY) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs YOKKELL (IRE) (read through UP THE JAZZ, BOUBYAN, I AM ME, RUN WITH IT) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“held up, brief effort over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”