Class 4 · 7f128y · Good (Good to Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 73.5
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 8 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:48 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good (Good to Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
miles (7-9f)
49
22.4%
49%
22.4%
42.9%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
mid fields (8-11)
69
21.7%
46.4%
20.3%
46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, HIGHLAND OLLY should reach the front first — roughly 1.0 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (47% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 51% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, HIGHLAND OLLY leads on 88, 4.7pts clear of COLLECTING COIN — the quickest away of the early types. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is SUPREME CLARETS (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making WOODSTOCK the 20% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
HIGHLAND OLLY
OR 78 · Alistair Rawlinson / Grant Tuer
MARKET backed 5.8 → 5 · the market rates it a 20% chance
88.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Proven over the trip (24 tries, beats market expectation at 2.03)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
COLLECTING COIN
OR 79 · George Wood / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 8 → 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
83.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (83.3)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
WOODSTOCK
OR 75 · Jason Hart / Ruth Carr
MARKET backed 7.4 → 4.8 · the market rates it a 20% chance
81.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−7lb below his last winning mark (75 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (81.0)Race-fit — ran 10 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1HIGHLAND OLLYnet +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, proven at trip
2COOL MOLLY (IRE)net +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, proven at trip, yard hot, fits the winner profile on recency
3COLLECTING COINnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency, meets much weaker company by the marks
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. COOL MOLLY (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge HIGHLAND OLLY lacks: dropping in class.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
COOL MOLLY (IRE) FIGURE #4
drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by midfield runners 36% · prominent racers 29% (58 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Flat, very short (~240y) — favours horses already on/near the pace finish. Winners’ energy signature: 51.07% spent early (band 50.67–52.11%, 36 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.3s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
15 similar races at CHESTER, 7.1-8.1f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (47% from the first three favourites). 13% won last time out, 7% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
47% 3yo
27% 5yo
13% 6yo+
Last ran
67% 15-45d
20% within 14d
7% 91d+
Market
53% 4th+ in the market
27% 2nd favourite
20% favourite
LTO form
80% unplaced last time
13% won last time
7% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.5 of 8, field average 4.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: HIGHLAND OLLY is 2/8 on softer ground · COLLECTING COIN is 1/6 on softer ground · WOODSTOCK is 1/7 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
COLLECTING COIN———-
HIGHLAND OLLYFRONT49.3%99.2the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
WOODSTOCKMID49.6%100.4one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
QUIET RESOLVE (IRE)MID50.3%98.8one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
COOL MOLLY (IRE)FRONT50.2%101.0just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
LAW OF DESIGN (IRE)HELD-UP49.5%100.5the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
GIANTMID50.8%96.2held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SUPREME CLARETS (IRE)MID49.7%101.9the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
HIGHLAND OLLYFRONTtypically ~2.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
COOL MOLLY (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
measured on their own past openings, HIGHLAND OLLY should reach the front first — roughly 1.0 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1HIGHLAND OLLYFRONT
DRAW 3 · OR 78 · Alistair Rawlinson / Grant Tuer
MARKET backed 5.8 → 5 · the market rates it a 20% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−
88.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4.7pts clear of the next, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
88.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 76
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 24 tries · beats market expectation (2.03)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grant Tuer · 704 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-RISING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-1128/2859.8%0.9413/6021.7%2.12
Over 7-8f trips24/2559.4%1.010/5617.9%2.09
At this time of year (Q3)19/18510.3%0.915/2025.0%1.99
Above their last winning mark15/1649.1%0.7910/4721.3%1.94
On turf32/3569.0%0.8816/8119.8%1.79
In Class 4-5 company33/3399.7%0.9612/7815.4%1.54
Coming back after 15 to 45 days16/2008.0%0.778/5813.8%1.36
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)2/922.2%2.821/425.0%2.05
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.3 demand
The rider
Alistair Rawlinson · last 14 days: 1/8· at Chester: A/E 0.64 (n20)· with this yard: A/E 3.06 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 73.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
-0.04s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
99.2%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 7
6.95 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Sep 25 · 7f14y · Slow — finished 6th vs 4th, 4L behind · OR 72 v 74 · race median 72 (today 73.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-11.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SUPREME CLARETS (IRE) (read through PATONTHEBACK, CAROLUS MAGNUS) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs COOL MOLLY (IRE) (read through MERESIDE DIVA, BELLA BISBEE) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs QUIET RESOLVE (IRE) (read through OBELIX, BAJAN BANDIT, HARSWELL DUKE, DETECTIVE) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAW OF DESIGN (IRE) (read through CAPTAIN PARMA, COMMANDER OF LIFE, MOONJID, IT JUST TAKES TIME) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Proven over the trip (24 tries, beats market expectation at 2.03)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, under pressure over 2f out, stayed on”
#2COLLECTING COIN
DRAW 7 · OR 79 · George Wood / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 8 → 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
83.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4.7pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
83.3 · ranked #2 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
79 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 10 tries · below market expectation (0.48)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 73.5 vs 80 last run (CURRAGH · 26 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jennie Candlish · 488 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chester6/4413.6%1.593/2313.0%2.0
At this time of year (Q3)16/12512.8%1.283/1520.0%1.43
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-1123/19212.0%1.024/775.2%0.45
In Class 4-5 company25/16914.8%1.414/785.1%0.47
Over 7-8f trips16/12712.6%1.255/539.4%0.69
On turf27/20113.4%1.327/779.1%0.79
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.3 demand
The rider
George Wood · last 14 days: 2/33· at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n58)· with this yard: A/E 1 (n176)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · never met today's rivals
Rated #2 in this field (83.3)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, effort 2f out, one paced”
#3WOODSTOCKMID
DRAW 1 · OR 75 · Jason Hart / Ruth Carr
MARKET backed 7.4 → 4.8 · the market rates it a 20% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
81.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 7pts off the top, prominent in the betting; one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
81.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 31 tries · beats market expectation (1.12)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ruth Carr · 1266 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)37/35310.5%1.15/3315.2%1.54
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark15/14510.3%1.095/756.7%0.6
In Class 4-5 company48/4879.9%1.148/1415.7%0.66
Over 7-8f trips50/45511.0%1.1811/1527.2%0.68
Coming back after 8 to 14 days40/30912.9%1.319/979.3%0.79
On turf58/52111.1%1.2314/1698.3%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)2/1020.0%2.620/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.3 demand
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 9/48· at Chester: A/E 0.85 (n87)· with this yard: A/E 0.24 (n46)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 73.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.49 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-30 to 2026-07-15. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
GIANT · 1 meeting · n/a
4 Apr 24 · 7f36y · Slow — finished 1st vs 3rd, 2.5L ahead · OR 77 v 80 · race median 78 · stale — 28m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs COOL MOLLY (IRE) (read through BEAUJOLAIS NOUVEAU, MADAME DE SEVIGNE) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAW OF DESIGN (IRE) (read through TACTICAL PLAN, MONTPELLIER GREEN, BILLY MILL, EMINENCY) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SUPREME CLARETS (IRE) (read through JUDICATURE, YAASER, FAN MAIL) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs QUIET RESOLVE (IRE) (read through DRAUPNIR, THIS FARH, SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE, CHUZZLEWIT) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb below his last winning mark (75 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (81.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“third, loomed up early in straight, led under 2f out, headed final 100 yds, found little”
#4COOL MOLLY (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 2 · OR 78 · Luke Morris / Ollie Sangster
MARKET drifting 4.4 → 4.9 · the market rates it a 20% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 13pts off the top, dropping in class; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (3.17)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ollie Sangster · 718 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark9/4719.1%0.9219/6728.4%1.41
At this time of year (Q3)20/17311.6%0.838/3721.6%1.31
Coming back after 15 to 45 days25/22211.3%0.7822/13616.2%1.27
Over 7-8f trips21/17512.0%0.9516/9117.6%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf ✦29/26011.2%0.812/11510.4%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)2/825.0%1.40/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.3 demand
The rider
Luke Morris · last 14 days: 5/38· at Chester: A/E 0.75 (n27)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n4)· notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 73.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
-0.10s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 7
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chester7fGood38th8083.5True40.3 +0.12100.0-0.28
12 Jun 26York6fGood26th8181.5True41.1 -0.2599.1-0.15
23 May 26Goodwood7fGood215th8389Fast early40.6 -0.58101.5-0.14
7 May 26Chester7f127yGood23rd8189True40.0 -0.0998.0-0.05
Timed runs 2026-04-03 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs WOODSTOCK (read through BEAUJOLAIS NOUVEAU, MADAME DE SEVIGNE) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HIGHLAND OLLY (read through MERESIDE DIVA, BELLA BISBEE) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GIANT (read through MADAME DE SEVIGNE, SEARCHINGTHEBLUES) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SUPREME CLARETS (IRE) (read through HASBRO MARKET, HOMESTRAIT) ≈ +0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 10 runsBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-7 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, lost place under 2f out, kept on again final 1f”
#5QUIET RESOLVE (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 72 · Ray Dawson / Alan Brown
MARKET 14 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 14pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 21 tries · below market expectation (0.72)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races prominent-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Alan Brown · 390 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-1117/16810.1%1.055/647.8%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)6/837.2%0.990/140.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days9/7811.5%1.031/342.9%0.42
On turf10/1089.3%1.293/605.0%0.71
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)0/10.0%0.01/1100.0%23.1
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 83 is below the ~83.3 the race demands
The rider
Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 7/28· at Chester: A/E 0.45 (n26)· with this yard: A/E 1.95 (n10)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 73.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 7
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-14 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs GIANT (read through OBELIX, MIAMI MATRIX, MADAME DE SEVIGNE, WHITE CROWN STAR) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HIGHLAND OLLY (read through OBELIX, BAJAN BANDIT, HARSWELL DUKE, DETECTIVE) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WOODSTOCK (read through DRAUPNIR, THIS FARH, SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE, CHUZZLEWIT) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 68)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, effort wide 3f out, held when entering final 1f”
#6SUPREME CLARETS (IRE)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 65 · John Egan / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET backed 9 → 8.2 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 14pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
65 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 9 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.92% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 20 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 73.5 vs 67 last run (CARLISLE · 9 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11—23/18412.5%1.23
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~83.3 the race demands
The rider
John Egan · last 14 days: 0/15· at Chester: A/E 0.48 (n20)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 73.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
101.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 7
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-11 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs HIGHLAND OLLY (read through PATONTHEBACK, CAROLUS MAGNUS) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WOODSTOCK (read through JUDICATURE, YAASER, FAN MAIL) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs COOL MOLLY (IRE) (read through HASBRO MARKET, HOMESTRAIT) ≈ -0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Improving fast — last run rated 74, 10pts above his recent average of 64.0Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led, kicked on 2f out, headed final 100 yds”
#7GIANTMID
DRAW 4 · OR 65 · David Probert / Ian Williams
MARKET drifting 5.5 → 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 15pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 29 tries · below market expectation (0.49)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 96.2% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 73.5 vs 77 last run (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 25 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.3 demand
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 8/41· at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n70)· with this yard: A/E 1.34 (n54)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 73.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
-0.01s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 5
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
96.2%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 7
7.39 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-24 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
28 Sep 25 · 7f14y · Slow — finished 4th vs 6th, 4L ahead · OR 74 v 72 · race median 72 (today 73.5)
WOODSTOCK · 1 meeting · n/a
4 Apr 24 · 7f36y · Slow — finished 3rd vs 1st, 2.5L behind · OR 80 v 77 · race median 78 (today 73.5) · stale — 28m ago, not in the read
LAW OF DESIGN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
7 Apr 26 · 1m13y · Std — finished 3rd vs 9th, 2.85L ahead · OR 67 v 73 · race median 74 (today 73.5)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+5.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs QUIET RESOLVE (IRE) (read through OBELIX, MIAMI MATRIX, MADAME DE SEVIGNE, WHITE CROWN STAR) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs COOL MOLLY (IRE) (read through MADAME DE SEVIGNE, SEARCHINGTHEBLUES) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (65 today vs 69)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayStable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, prominent, led briefly 1f out, one paced”
#8LAW OF DESIGN (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR 68 · Ryan Kavanagh / Ian Williams
MARKET 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
64.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 23.3pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
64.7 · ranked #8 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
68 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.52)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.5% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 10lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 73.5 vs 63 last run (CHESTER · 10 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.3 demand
The rider
Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 4/17· at Chester: A/E 0.92 (n14)· with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n219)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 73.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 7
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Apr 26 · 1m13y · Std — finished 9th vs 3rd, 2.85L behind · OR 73 v 67 · race median 74 (today 73.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs WOODSTOCK (read through TACTICAL PLAN, MONTPELLIER GREEN, BILLY MILL, EMINENCY) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HIGHLAND OLLY (read through CAPTAIN PARMA, COMMANDER OF LIFE, MOONJID, IT JUST TAKES TIME) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.52)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along soon after halfway, weakening when hung right over 1f out, no extra”