FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chester · 15:10
Class 3 · 7f · Good (Good to Firm in places)
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:48 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good (Good to Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 1-33333.3%57.6%42.4%60.6%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
non-handicaps6535.4%55.4%35.4%63.1%
small fields (<=7)13633.8%66.2%35.3%70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (71% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, SEA IDOL leads on 75, 2pts clear of VELOCIRAPTOR — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is VELOCIRAPTOR — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making VELOCIRAPTOR the 51% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
SEA IDOL
OR · Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott Bt
MARKET drifting 7.2 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−The top rating in this field (75.0)Stable in form this week — 5 wins from 13 runs
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
VELOCIRAPTOR
OR · David Probert / Hugo Palmer
MARKET 1.97 · the market rates it a 51% chance
73.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (73.0)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
STORM BLADE
OR · Jason Watson / Andrew Balding
MARKET backed 2.92 → 2.58 · the market rates it a 39% chance
67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (67.0)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1STORM BLADEnet +10drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup
2VELOCIRAPTORnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position
3SEA IDOLnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, yard hot, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. STORM BLADE is the one to beat it — an edge SEA IDOL lacks: dropping in class.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by midfield runners 41% · prominent racers 28% (32 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Flat, very short (~240y) — favours horses already on/near the pace finish. Winners’ energy signature: 49.54% spent early (band 48.9–50.55%, 47 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.3s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
35 similar races at CHESTER, 6.0-8.0f, 2yo non-handicaps, Class 2-4, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (71% from the first three favourites). 11% won last time out, 29% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
66% 15-45d
14% first run
14% within 14d
Market
37% favourite
29% 4th+ in the market
20% 2nd favourite
LTO form
46% unplaced last time
29% placed last time
14% first run
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SEA IDOL is unraced on softer ground · VELOCIRAPTOR is 0/1 on softer ground · STORM BLADE is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
KATIE'S CAVALIER (IRE) HELD-UP 49.4% 99.9 one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
PARRY GREEN HELD-UP 56.4% 85.2 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ROYAL TITAN (USA) MID 49.9% 100.3 one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SEA IDOL HELD-UP 46.5% 110.4 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
STORM BLADE MID 49.7% 100.5 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
VELOCIRAPTOR HELD-UP 48.1% 105.6 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 SEA IDOL HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR · Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott Bt
MARKET drifting 7.2 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 2pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 110.39% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 18 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 7f · rated 752ndClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SEA IDOLbest 75needs 73–752026-05-21 · TFR 72 · 7f13y · Std · C42026-07-06 · TFR 75 · 7f · Std/Slow · C321 May 266 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Sir Mark Prescott Bt · 545 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦52/20625.2%1.28/2828.6%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company7/6910.1%0.772/1910.5%0.6
Coming back after 15 to 45 days36/16921.3%1.154/3710.8%0.61
Over 7-8f trips22/17112.9%1.134/429.5%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)1/250.0%1.890/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
Luke Morris · last 14 days: 5/38 · at Chester: A/E 0.75 (n27) · with this yard: A/E 0.92 (n439)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.40 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
110.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 6
6.94 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Lingfield7fStd/Slow34th——True40.5 -0.11105.2-0.02
21 May 26Southwell7f14yStd42nd———41.1 +0.91115.6+0.06
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.29slow2f+0.29slow3f+0.32slow4f+0.32par5f+0.30fast6f+0.48par7f+0.57par
Timed runs 2026-05-21 to 2026-07-06. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ROYAL TITAN (USA) · 1 meeting≈ 12.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 7f · Std/Slow — finished 4th vs 9th, 12.6L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+12.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
The top rating in this field (75.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 5 wins from 13 runsSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Held-Up) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-division, effort when ran green under 2f out, kept on”
#2 VELOCIRAPTOR HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR · David Probert / Hugo Palmer
MARKET 1.97 · the market rates it a 51% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
73.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 2pts off the top, in form; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.59% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 3 · 7f · rated 73
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦22/13815.9%1.258/4318.6%1.51
At Chester21/13515.6%1.296/4015.0%1.3
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.24/517.8%0.65
Over 7-8f trips64/43414.7%1.2611/10910.1%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~73.0 demand
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 8/41 · at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n70) · with this yard: A/E 1.44 (n81)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.72 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.3 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
105.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm33rd——Slow early41.3 +0.72105.6+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.36slow2f+0.28very slow3f+0.27very slow4f+0.23slow5f+0.12fast6f+0.22fast7f+0.52very fast
Timed runs 2026-07-11 to 2026-07-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Rated #2 in this field (73.0)Only 1 run at this distanceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Held-Up) is rare among winners at this course & distance
#3 STORM BLADE MID
DRAW 1 · OR · Jason Watson / Andrew Balding
MARKET backed 2.92 → 2.58 · the market rates it a 39% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 8pts off the top, dropping in class; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.51% (holds late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 2 · 7f · rated 674thClass 2 · 6f · rated 65
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for STORM BLADEneeds 73–75best 672026-06-01 · TFR 65 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22026-07-03 · TFR 67 · 7f · Good · C21 Jun 263 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2437 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0549/21822.5%1.23
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1270/29323.9%1.22
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 69 is below the ~73.0 the race demands
The rider
Jason Watson · last 14 days: 6/26 · at Chester: A/E 0.97 (n99) · with this yard: A/E 1.05 (n305)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Sandown Park7fGood25th——True37.7 -0.18100.5+0.00
1 Jun 26Lingfield6fGd/Frm24th——True41.2 -0.16100.5+0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.24slow2f+0.49par3f+0.68par4f+0.49slow5f+0.65par6f+0.46par7f+0.81slow
Timed runs 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-03. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (67.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, effort when ran green 2f out, no extra final 1f”
#4 ROYAL TITAN (USA) MID
DRAW 3 · OR · Ray Dawson / Marco Botti
MARKET 75 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 16pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
59.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 59
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.26% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 27 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 3 · 7f44y · rated 599thClass 3 · 7f · rated 35
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROYAL TITAN (USA)needs 73–75best 592026-07-06 · TFR 35 · 7f · Std/Slow · C32026-07-14 · TFR 59 · 7f35y · Std · C36 Jul 2614 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Marco Botti · 840 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company13/12910.1%0.946/4314.0%1.29
In fields of <=7 ✦36/19518.5%1.1111/4623.9%1.21
At this time of year (Q3)25/18813.3%1.225/3116.1%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf32/27311.7%1.098/7410.8%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)0/40.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 59 is below the ~73.0 the race demands
The rider
Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 7/28 · at Chester: A/E 0.45 (n26) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.7 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 6
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jul 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd37th———39.5 +0.41—+0.03—
6 Jul 26Lingfield7fStd/Slow39th——True40.0 -0.60100.3+0.28
Timed runs 2026-07-06 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SEA IDOL · 1 meeting≈ 12.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 7f · Std/Slow — finished 9th vs 4th, 12.6L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-12.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Improving fast — last run rated 59, 12pts above his recent average of 47.0Only 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days ago
LTO comment
“mid-division, weakened over 1f out”
#5 KATIE'S CAVALIER (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR · Laura Pearson / David Loughnane
MARKET 100 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−
57.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 18pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 59
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.87% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 4 · 7f · rated 576thClass 2 · 5f154y · rated 495thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 59
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for KATIE'S CAVALIER (IRE)needs 73–75best 592026-05-18 · TFR 59 · 5f22y · Std · C42026-06-05 · TFR 49 · 5f161y · Good · C22026-06-13 · TFR 57 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C418 May 2613 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Loughnane · 753 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/1735.2%0.624/2218.2%1.64
In Class 1-3 company3/565.4%0.84/3112.9%1.61
At Chester2/345.9%0.863/2412.5%1.56
Over 7-8f trips ✦32/26712.0%1.2513/8415.5%1.31
Coming back after 15 to 45 days22/2419.1%0.9312/9812.2%1.27
In fields of <=7 ✦15/11712.8%1.078/4219.0%1.26
On turf22/2618.4%0.9112/9512.6%1.23
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~73.0 the race demands
The rider
Laura Pearson · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Chester: A/E 1.71 (n17) · with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n191)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.57 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
99.9%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 6
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Chester7fGd/Sft46th——True37.9 -0.62100.8+0.15
5 Jun 26Bath5f160yGood26th——True40.1 -0.2596.2-0.05
18 May 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd45th——Slow early40.1 -0.85102.7+0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.15par2f+1.25par3f+1.04fast4f+1.27slow5f+1.08par6f+0.91par7f+0.85slow
Timed runs 2026-05-18 to 2026-06-13. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Only 2 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.71x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“went left strt, soon behind, stayed on from 2f out, never dangerous”
#6 PARRY GREEN HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR · S. B. Kirrane / Lisa Williamson
MARKET 1000 · the market rates it a 0% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
— FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Flagged on our watch list; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 85.23% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 20 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
11thClass 4 · 6f198y · rated —
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Lisa Williamson · 237 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days3/694.3%0.851/1010.0%1.39
In fields of <=710/5717.5%1.621/128.3%1.36
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company0/50.0%0.0—
Over 7-8f trips0/340.0%0.00/130.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)0/140.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)7/719.9%1.360/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20 · at Chester: A/E 1.27 (n45) · with this yard: A/E 1.67 (n6)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.6 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.77s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
85.2%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 6
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
24 Jun 26Carlisle6f195yGd/Frm411th——True37.6 -0.2385.2+0.77
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.20very slow2f+1.65slow3f+1.81par4f+1.58slow5f+2.52very slow6f+5.15very slow7f+10.45very slow
Timed runs 2026-06-24 to 2026-06-24. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
Only 1 run at this distanceRun-style and sectional profile are mismatched to how this course & distance is won
LTO comment
“slowly away, always behind”