FORMLAB Race Report — Chester 15:48

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Chester · 15:48

Class 3 · 6f18y · Good (Good to Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 90

GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 12:49 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good (Good to Firm in places)

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32

FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 1-3	33	33.3%	57.6%	42.4%	60.6%
sprints (5-7f)	113	26.5%	55.8%	28.3%	58.4%
handicaps	159	25.2%	59.1%	25.8%	57.2%
small fields (<=7)	136	33.8%	66.2%	35.3%	70.6%

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Measured on their own past openings, RAY MON DOUGH should reach the front first — roughly 2.3 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, CALICO BLUE leads on 105, 10pts clear of GRASMERE BOY and RAY MON DOUGH (both 95) — ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is GRASMERE BOY — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes CALICO BLUE the 51% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

CALICO BLUE

OR 95 · Ray Dawson / Roger Varian

MARKET 1.9 · the market rates it a 51% chance

105.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (105.0)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 11 runs

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6

GRASMERE BOY

OR 91 · Dylan Hogan / Julie Camacho

MARKET 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance

95.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (95.0)A course winner (1 from 1 here)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

RAY MON DOUGH

OR 90 · Edward Greatrex / Oliver Cole

MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance

95.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (95.0)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1CALICO BLUEnet +10figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard hot

2TRICKY TELnet +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position − 5lb+ above last winning mark

3POSTMODERN (IRE)net +8drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on recency

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. TRICKY TEL is the one to beat it — an edge CALICO BLUE lacks: meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 49% · prominent racers 31% (39 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Flat, very short (~240y) — favours horses already on/near the pace finish. Draw: One of the strongest in Britain, LOW favoured. 5f 10+ runner handicaps: bottom third ~67% of wins, >50% from stalls 1-2. Low advantage persists 6f/7f and middle distances. front-runners win ~3 in 10. Winners’ energy signature: 49.62% spent early (band 48.74–50.59%, 56 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.16s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89

17 similar races at CHESTER, 5.1-7.1f, 3yo handicaps, Class 2-4, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites). 29% won last time out, 12% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Last ran

59% 15-45d

29% within 14d

12% first run

Market

35% 4th+ in the market

29% 2nd favourite

18% 3rd favourite

LTO form

47% unplaced last time

29% won last time

12% placed last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7

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Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: CALICO BLUE is 2/2 on softer ground · GRASMERE BOY is unraced on softer ground · RAY MON DOUGH is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

POSTMODERN (IRE) PROMINENT 51.0% 98.6 concedes ~2.3L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late

CALICO BLUE MID 49.0% 101.8 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

GRASMERE BOY MID 47.7% 104.1 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

RAY MON DOUGH FRONT 49.0% 102.8 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls

TRICKY TEL MID 50.0% 99.3 one-paced late — 5th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

STARGAZED MID 50.2% 99.7 one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

BOSTON DAN (IRE) MID 51.5% 96.2 held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

RAY MON DOUGHFRONTtypically ~4.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

POSTMODERN (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.20s off the field’s best

measured on their own past openings, RAY MON DOUGH should reach the front first — roughly 2.3 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 CALICO BLUE MID

DRAW 2 · OR 95 · Ray Dawson / Roger Varian

MARKET 1.9 · the market rates it a 51% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

105.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 10pts clear of the next, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

105.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 105

Official mark (OR)

95 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.61)

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.84% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 1054thClass 2 · 5f · rated 922ndClass 2 · 5f · rated 981stClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 901stClass 2 · 6f22y · rated 81

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Roger Varian · 1091 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: off a judgement-rated last figure, off a falsely-run (hidden) last run

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 1-3 company52/36714.2%0.8816/8020.0%1.22

Coming back after 15 to 45 days84/45718.4%0.925/10324.3%1.18

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 5-6f trips ✦23/17613.1%0.774/2714.8%0.76

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chester (small sample)4/1921.1%1.092/728.6%1.82

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 105 at/around today's trip, clears the ~98.0 demand

The rider

Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 7/28 · at Chester: A/E 0.45 (n26) · with this yard: A/E 0.93 (n291)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 90 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7

+0.27 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 7

101.8%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length1st of 7

7.71 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Ascot5fGd/Frm24th9395True42.4 -0.16100.4+0.12

24 Apr 26Sandown Park5f10yGood22nd9188True41.2 -0.34101.6+0.16

11 Jul 25Chester6f17yGd/Frm41st——Slow early40.2 +1.01106.2—

14 Jun 25Chester6f17yGd/Sft21st——True38.9 +0.56101.0+0.09

27 May 25Leicester6fGood43rd——True40.1 +0.26100.1+0.17

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.78par2f+0.84par3f+0.88par4f+0.90slow5f+0.78slow

Timed runs 2025-05-27 to 2026-06-19. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

TRICKY TEL · 1 meeting≈ 2.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

19 Jun 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 11th, 4.05L ahead · OR 93 v 90 · race median 95 (today 90)

STARGAZED · 1 meeting≈ 3.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

19 Jun 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 12th, 4.8L ahead · OR 93 v 89 · race median 95 (today 90)

BOSTON DAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

14 Jun 25 · 6f17y · Gd/Sft — finished 1st vs 4th, 4.3L ahead

Read through a common rival

vs POSTMODERN (IRE) (read through THUNDER CALL, RED SPELLS DANGER, MAN OF VISION, UNDERWRITER) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (105.0)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 11 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 2 here)

LTO comment

“mid-field, ridden halfway, headway 2f out, kept on”

#2 GRASMERE BOY MID

DRAW 6 · OR 91 · Dylan Hogan / Julie Camacho

MARKET 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−

95.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 10pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

95.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 95

Official mark (OR)

91 · last won off 85

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.71)

Days since last run

14

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 104.13% (strong late)

Field strength · class context

Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 90 vs 82 last run (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 951stClass 4 · 6f · rated 852ndClass 4 · 7f · rated 802ndClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 76

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Julie Camacho · 908 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.1 on the exchange

Signature angle: with their 4yo+s

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 1-3 company15/1778.5%1.033/348.8%1.48

In fields of <=7 ✦19/11816.1%1.169/4221.4%1.39

On turf ✦59/46312.7%1.2814/12111.6%1.16

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)41/29114.1%1.372/277.4%0.64

Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/7115.5%1.212/238.7%0.79

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chester (small sample)1/185.6%0.541/520.0%1.47

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 98 at/around today's trip, clears the ~98.0 demand

The rider

Dylan Hogan · last 14 days: 3/10 · at Chester: A/E 1.21 (n7) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n17)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 90 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields1st of 7

+0.58 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 7

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 7

104.1%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 7

7.60 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jul 26Chester6f17yGood41st8582True39.6 -0.01101.5+0.12

17 Jun 26Ripon6fGood41st——True41.8 -0.1198.1—

30 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGd/Frm42nd——Slow early41.5 +1.16108.2+0.07

1 May 26Newcastle7f14ySlow42nd——Slow early40.2 +1.28108.6+0.23

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.09slow2fledpar3fledslow4fledpar5fledfast6fledfast

Timed runs 2026-05-01 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

6lb above his last winning mark (91 today vs 85)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (95.0)Improving fast — last run rated 95, 8pts above his recent average of 86.7Only 4 runs at this distanceA course winner (1 from 1 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“dictated, kicked on entering straight, went clear 1f out, closed down late on”

#3 RAY MON DOUGH FRONT

DRAW 5 · OR 90 · Edward Greatrex / Oliver Cole

MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

95.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 10pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; its figure was earned on a different surface.

FormLab Figure

95.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 95

Official mark (OR)

90 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.24)

Days since last run

68

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 102.82% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 18 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 4 · 6f · rated 956thClass 4 · 7f · rated 741stClass 5 · 6f · rated 95

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Oliver Cole · 150 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)1/303.3%0.283/1618.8%1.86

In Class 1-3 company3/1520.0%1.993/1915.8%1.47

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 46 to 90 days2/633.3%2.110/60.0%0.0

In fields of <=72/1315.4%0.881/224.5%0.34

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chester (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 95 is below the ~98.0 the race demands

The rider

Edward Greatrex · last 14 days: 0/16 · at Chester: A/E 0.73 (n24) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n4)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 90 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7

+0.48 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 7

-0.03s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 3

Finish · closing speed2nd of 7

102.8%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length6th of 7

7.31 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

18 May 26Lingfield6fGood42nd——True41.9 +0.4199.5+0.00

30 Apr 26Kempton Park7fSlow46th———38.6 +0.25—-0.02—

4 Nov 25Lingfield6fStd51st——True41.5 +0.77106.2-0.07

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4f+0.05par5f+0.28slow6f+0.45slow

Timed runs 2025-11-04 to 2026-05-18. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (aw→turf) — earned under different conditionsYet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRated #3 in this field (95.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“led, headed around halfway, plugged on, no impression on winner”

#4 POSTMODERN (IRE) PROMINENT FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 96 · Jason Hart / Hamad Al Jehani

MARKET backed 9.4 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 16pts off the top, backed since the morning; concedes ~2.3L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.

FormLab Figure

89.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 89

Official mark (OR)

96 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.45)

Days since last run

42

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 98.57% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time hood

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

14thClass 2 · 6f · rated 8911thClass 1 · 6f · rated 801stClass 2 · 6f · rated 89

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Hamad Al Jehani · 156 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 1-3 company ✦11/8013.8%1.057/4216.7%1.25

Over 5-6f trips9/4520.0%0.924/1723.5%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)9/5915.3%0.920/90.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/5717.5%1.052/1910.5%0.84

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chester (small sample)1/425.0%3.890/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 89 is below the ~98.0 the race demands

The rider

Jason Hart · last 14 days: 9/48 · at Chester: A/E 0.85 (n87) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 90 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields6th of 7

+0.04 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 7

+0.20s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 7

98.6%

One-paced late

Stride length7th of 7

7.22 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

13 Jun 26York6fGood214th9889True42.0 +0.1295.5+0.45

17 Jun 25Ascot6fGd/Frm111th——True39.7 -0.0497.4+0.13

22 May 25Yarmouth6fFirm21st——True42.0 +0.03102.7+0.02

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.15fast2f+0.07par3f+0.06par4f+0.12slow5f+0.33slow6f+1.20very slow

Timed runs 2025-05-22 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

BOSTON DAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 14th vs 12th, 0.25L behind · OR 98 v 92 · race median 89 (today 90)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs TRICKY TEL (read through RUBY'S ANGEL, GO VINCE GO, ALAMINOS, BACK TO ME) ≈ +5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs CALICO BLUE (read through THUNDER CALL, RED SPELLS DANGER, MAN OF VISION, UNDERWRITER) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs STARGAZED (read through GO VINCE GO, FORTIFICATION) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last timeBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-6 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Cut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“pressed leader, ridden approaching final 1f, weakened”

#5 TRICKY TEL MID

DRAW 4 · OR 89 · David Probert / Hugo Palmer

MARKET drifting 9.4 → 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−

85.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 19.7pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

85.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 94

Official mark (OR)

89 · last won off 84

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.95)

Days since last run

36

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.26% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 90 vs 95 last run (ASCOT · 19 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

11thClass 2 · 5f · rated 731stClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 941stClass 4 · 6f · rated 893rdClass 3 · 6f22y · rated 844thClass 4 · 6f · rated 68

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Hugo Palmer · 1171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Chester21/13515.6%1.296/4015.0%1.3

Over 5-6f trips ✦42/26915.6%1.1915/9515.8%1.26

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.24/517.8%0.65

Above their last winning mark27/17515.4%1.25/568.9%0.7

Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0513/12510.4%0.77

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 94 is below the ~98.0 the race demands

The rider

David Probert · last 14 days: 8/41 · at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n70) · with this yard: A/E 1.44 (n81)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 90 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields7th of 7

-0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 7

99.3%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 7

7.42 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Ascot5fGd/Frm211th9095True42.0 -0.6099.5+0.11

13 Jun 26Chester5f15yGd/Sft31st8483.5True40.7 -0.05100.1+0.02

27 May 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm41st7976True42.1 +0.0398.7+0.10

6 May 26Chester6f17yGood33rd7983.5True41.2 +0.1597.7+0.08

11 Sep 25Doncaster7fGood37th8580True39.0 -0.1599.5+0.02

25 Jul 25Ascot7fGood15th——True38.4 -0.11100.1-0.02

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.71par2f+0.90slow3f+1.06slow4f+1.11slow5f+1.46very slow

Timed runs 2025-07-25 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

CALICO BLUE · 1 meeting≈ 2.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

19 Jun 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 11th vs 4th, 4.05L behind · OR 90 v 93 · race median 95 (today 90)

STARGAZED · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms

19 Jun 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 11th vs 12th, 0.75L ahead · OR 90 v 89 · race median 95 (today 90)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs POSTMODERN (IRE) (read through RUBY'S ANGEL, GO VINCE GO, ALAMINOS, BACK TO ME) ≈ -5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BOSTON DAN (IRE) (read through RUBY'S ANGEL, ALAMINOS, BACK TO ME, SOVEREIGN SPELL) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

5lb above his last winning mark (89 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.95)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 4 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“off pace, ridden and headway over 1f out, never nearer”

#6 STARGAZED MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 7 · OR 88 · Shane Gray / K. R. Burke

MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−

80.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 24.3pts off the top, a yard in form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

80.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 97

Official mark (OR)

88 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.34)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.68% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Steps into 5lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 90 vs 85 last run (YORK · 27 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 2 · 5f · rated 7712thClass 2 · 5f · rated 682ndClass 3 · 5f · rated 971stClass 4 · 5f · rated 814thClass 4 · 5f · rated 65

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

K. R. Burke · 1725 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3) ✦92/52017.7%1.0515/5825.9%1.21

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chester (small sample)5/3912.8%0.880/150.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 97 is below the ~98.0 the race demands

The rider

Shane Gray · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Chester: A/E 0.64 (n15) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n118)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 90 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields4th of 7

+0.09 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 7

+0.25s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 7

99.7%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 7

7.52 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26York5fGood28th9085True42.7 +0.00100.0+0.92

19 Jun 26Ascot5fGd/Frm212th8995True43.0 +0.4196.5+0.26

15 May 26York5fGood32nd8682True42.2 +0.0398.3+0.16

19 Jul 25Ripon5fGd/Sft41st——True40.2 -0.05100.3+0.08

4 Jul 25Beverley5fGd/Frm44th——Slow early38.2 +0.32104.1+0.00

13 Jun 25York5fGd/Frm26th——Slow early42.5 -0.1599.0+0.06

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.84slow2f+0.74par3f+0.62par4f+0.61slow5f+0.96slow

Timed runs 2025-06-13 to 2026-06-27. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

BOSTON DAN (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms

27 Jun 26 · 5f · Good — finished 8th vs 10th, 1.05L ahead · OR 90 v 90 · race median 85 (today 90)

CALICO BLUE · 1 meeting≈ 3.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

19 Jun 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 4th, 4.8L behind · OR 89 v 93 · race median 95 (today 90)

TRICKY TEL · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses

19 Jun 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 11th, 0.75L behind · OR 89 v 90 · race median 95 (today 90)

Read through a common rival

vs POSTMODERN (IRE) (read through GO VINCE GO, FORTIFICATION) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayLost roughly 4.1 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“handy, weakened final 1f”

#7 BOSTON DAN (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 86 · S. B. Kirrane / Tim Easterby

MARKET drifting 16.5 → 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−

73.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 32pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

73.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 98

Official mark (OR)

86 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 13 tries · below market expectation (0.48)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.2% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Steps into 5lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 90 vs 85 last run (YORK · 27 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

10thClass 2 · 5f · rated 7312thClass 2 · 6f · rated 8310thClass 1 · 5f · rated 509thClass 2 · 6f · rated 657thClass 1 · 6f · rated 40

Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 1-3 company ✦15/3754.0%0.637/1385.1%0.7

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chester (small sample)7/6910.1%1.260/160.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 95 is below the ~98.0 the race demands

The rider

S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20 · at Chester: A/E 1.27 (n45) · with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n644)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 90 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields5th of 7

+0.08 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 7

+0.16s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed7th of 7

96.2%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 7

7.67 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26York5fGood210th9085True42.4 -0.3999.3+0.11

13 Jun 26York6fGood212th9289True43.0 +1.1497.7+0.81

14 May 26York5fGood110th——True42.0 +0.1493.2+0.00

16 Apr 26Newmarket6fGood29th9790True41.3 -0.1794.5+0.09

25 Oct 25Doncaster6fHeavy17th——True38.1 -0.0592.7-0.02

11 Oct 25York6fGood12nd——True40.0 -0.17100.0-0.02

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.64slow2f+0.71par3f+0.58par4f+0.67slow5f+1.14slow

Timed runs 2025-10-11 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

STARGAZED · 2 meetings≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball

27 Jun 26 · 5f · Good — finished 10th vs 8th, 1.05L behind · OR 90 v 90 · race median 85 (today 90)

CALICO BLUE · 1 meeting · n/a

14 Jun 25 · 6f17y · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 1st, 4.3L behind · stale — 13m ago, not in the read

POSTMODERN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 12th vs 14th, 0.25L ahead · OR 92 v 98 · race median 89 (today 90)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs TRICKY TEL (read through RUBY'S ANGEL, ALAMINOS, BACK TO ME, SOVEREIGN SPELL) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“rear, ridden before 1f out, plugged on, never dangerous”