FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chester · 16:23
Class 4 · 5f15y · Good (Good to Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 81
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 12 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:49 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good (Good to Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 47225%58.3%29.2%62.5%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, RIGHT AND EXACT leads on 92, 3pts clear of SECRET MISTRAL — a yard in form. The case against the top pick: stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings. The shape danger is TRUE PROMISE — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making AL HUSSAR the 26% favourite — a horse our figures rate 5th.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
RIGHT AND EXACT
OR 84 · Zak Wheatley / Declan Carroll
MARKET drifting 4.4 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.67x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
SECRET MISTRAL
OR 81 · Myla Coppins / Tony Carroll
MARKET drifting 10 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (89.0)Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 1.34)Jockey goes well at this track (1.85x market expectation)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 12
ROSENPUR (GER)
OR 82 · George Wood / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
87.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (87.7)Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 1.76)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1RIGHT AND EXACTnet +8figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip − steps into much stronger company by the marks
2ROSENPUR (GER)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position − burns early and empties
3COPPER KNIGHT (IRE)net +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, sharp from the stalls, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on recency − burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
RIGHT AND EXACT carries stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings. ROSENPUR (GER) is the one to beat it — an edge RIGHT AND EXACT lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
AL HUSSAR  FIGURE #5
Grant Tuer's runners kept to the same class win 11.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
SPENDMORE LANE  FIGURE #9
David Loughnane's runners above their last winning mark win 14.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE)  FIGURE #12
John's runners kept to the same class win 15.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (6 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 39% · prominent racers 35% (23 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Flat, very short (~240y) — favours horses already on/near the pace finish. Draw: One of the strongest in Britain, LOW favoured. 5f 10+ runner handicaps: bottom third ~67% of wins, >50% from stalls 1-2. Low advantage persists 6f/7f and middle distances. front-runners win ~3 in 10. Winners’ energy signature: 49.12% spent early (band 48.84–49.86%, 27 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.23s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Today 6 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
17 similar races at CHESTER, 4.6-5.6f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites). 29% won last time out, 41% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
59% 6yo+
18% 5yo
12% 4yo
Last ran
53% 15-45d
47% within 14d
Market
35% 4th+ in the market
29% 2nd favourite
24% favourite
LTO form
41% placed last time
29% won last time
29% unplaced last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 12 runners · stalls 1–12
123456789101112
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–12).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: RIGHT AND EXACT is 0/1 on softer ground · SECRET MISTRAL is 0/6 on softer ground · ROSENPUR (GER) is 0/6 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
RIGHT AND EXACT PROMINENT 49.7% 101.7 concedes ~1.6L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
ROSENPUR (GER) FRONT 50.7% 98.0 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
AL HUSSAR MID 50.2% 98.6 one-paced late — 9th of 12 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
GRANDLAD (IRE) PROMINENT 50.0% 99.7 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) MID 50.1% 99.7 one-paced late — 7th of 12 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SECRET MISTRAL FRONT 50.4% 98.2 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
TRUE PROMISE MID 49.4% 102.0 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) PROMINENT 50.0% 98.8 concedes ~2.1L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
ACES WILD (IRE) HELD-UP 49.3% 100.0 one-paced late — 5th of 12 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SPENDMORE LANE MID 49.7% 100.6 solid late gains (4th of 12 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
HENRYTHENATE HELD-UP 48.8% 101.6 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
MIRACULOUS (IRE) PROMINENT 50.8% 97.6 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ROSENPUR (GER)FRONTtypically ~2.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
SECRET MISTRALFRONTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
GRANDLAD (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
MIRACULOUS (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
RIGHT AND EXACTPROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
COPPER KNIGHT (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 RIGHT AND EXACT PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 84 · Zak Wheatley / Declan Carroll
MARKET drifting 4.4 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, a yard in form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
84 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (4.61)
Days since last run
50
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.72% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (MUSSELBURGH 17th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 7lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 74 last run (MUSSELBURGH · 5 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 5f · rated 921stClass 4 · 5f · rated 918thClass 4 · 5f · rated 752ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 752ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 88
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RIGHT AND EXACTbest 92needs 90–922025-06-10 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-04 · TFR 88 · 5f · Good · C52025-09-02 · TFR 75 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-04-12 · TFR 75 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-16 · TFR 91 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-05 · TFR 92 · 5f · Good · C410 Jun 255 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Declan Carroll · 511 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)18/17310.4%1.123/1618.8%2.28
In Class 4-5 company14/2116.6%0.8310/7114.1%1.8
Over 5-6f trips19/2188.7%0.918/6113.1%1.41
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-153/973.1%0.450/170.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark9/7911.4%0.862/464.3%0.48
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)0/200.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
At Chester (small sample)3/2412.5%1.531/520.0%1.39
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
The rider
Zak Wheatley · last 14 days: 2/10 · at Chester: A/E 1.67 (n45) · with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n462)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 12
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 12
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 12
101.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 12
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGood41st8274True41.8 +0.00103.0—
16 May 26Thirsk5fGood41st7876Fast early42.2 -0.37100.8+0.00
12 Apr 26Musselburgh5fGd/Sft48th7974True41.4 -0.15102.3+0.12
2 Sep 25Southwell4f215yStd52nd——True42.3 +0.30100.1+0.00
4 Aug 25Ripon5fGood52nd——True40.8 -0.15102.5-0.07
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.22slow2f+0.40slow3f+0.37par4f+0.49par5fledfast
Timed runs 2025-08-04 to 2026-06-05. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AL HUSSAR · 2 meetings≈ 1.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.3L ahead · OR 78 v 77 · race median 76 (today 81)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through ALBEGONE, GLORY FIGHTER, EMERALD HARMONY, CURIOUS ROVER) ≈ +5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GRANDLAD (IRE) (read through MUKER, POP STAR, CLASSY AL, CHANGEOFMIND) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TRUE PROMISE (read through CHANGEOFMIND, ALBEGONE, BRAZILIAN BELLE, CURIOUS ROVER) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) (read through I'M NEXT, COUNSEL, MUKER, TIRIAC) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.67x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“handy, shaken up 2f out, bumped soon after, challenged inside final 1f, led final 50 yds”
#2 SECRET MISTRAL FRONT
DRAW 7 · OR 81 · Myla Coppins / Tony Carroll
MARKET drifting 10 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
89.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 26 tries · beats market expectation (1.34)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 98.16% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 11lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 70 last run (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 892ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 838thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 423rdClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 772ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SECRET MISTRALneeds 90–92best 892025-01-30 · TFR 80 · 5f · Slow · C52025-02-13 · TFR 64 · 5f · Slow · C42025-06-21 · TFR 59 · 5f · Good · C42025-07-03 · TFR 71 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-19 · TFR 81 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-26 · TFR 76 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-10 · TFR 34 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-05 · TFR 71 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-20 · TFR 79 · 5f110y · Heavy · C42025-10-17 · TFR 79 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-12-15 · TFR 77 · 5f22y · Std · C42025-12-26 · TFR 42 · 6f20y · Slow · C42026-06-20 · TFR 83 · 5f9y · Good · C42026-07-11 · TFR 89 · 5f15y · Good · C530 Jan 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2405 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-15 ✦24/3067.8%1.110/8611.6%1.43
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24819.4%1.39
Over 5-6f trips ✦95/63714.9%1.2247/28516.5%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.957/7010.0%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)1/214.8%0.511/520.0%1.16
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
The rider
Myla Coppins · last 14 days: 2/4 · at Chester: A/E 1.85 (n2) · with this yard: A/E 1.61 (n90)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 12
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 12
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 12
98.2%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 12
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Chester5f15yGood51st7570True41.9 +0.1199.7-0.02
20 Jun 26Nottingham5fGood42nd7483.5True42.4 -0.48101.9+0.00
26 Dec 25Wolverhampton6f20ySlow48th7473True41.6 -0.0296.2+0.04
15 Dec 25Wolverhampton5f21yStd43rd7481True42.6 -0.16100.9+0.04
17 Oct 25Haydock Park5fGd/Sft52nd7266.5True39.7 -0.2797.7-0.05
20 Sep 25Chester5f110yHeavy42nd7273Fast early40.3 +1.6992.5+0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledpar3fledpar4fledpar5fledpar
Timed runs 2025-09-20 to 2026-07-11. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 6.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
5 Sep 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 8th, 0.6L ahead · OR 73 v 76 · race median 73 (today 81)
TRUE PROMISE · 2 meetings · n/a
3 Jul 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 4th, 1.3L ahead · OR 71 v 75 · race median 71 (today 81) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
GRANDLAD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
15 Dec 25 · 5f21y · Std — finished 3rd vs 4th, 1.5L ahead · OR 74 v 81 · race median 81 (today 81)
MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 Dec 25 · 5f21y · Std — finished 3rd vs 7th, 9.25L ahead · OR 74 v 84 · race median 81 (today 81)
ACES WILD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.1L behind on today's terms · reverses
26 Jul 25 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 1st, 1.45L behind · OR 74 v 68 · race median 69 (today 81)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (-2.7L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HENRYTHENATE (read through ARLO'S GIRL, ALFA DUPLICATE) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MIRACULOUS (IRE) (read through INTERVENTION, VINCE L'AMOUR, NIGHT ON EARTH, PAWS FOR THOUGHT) ≈ -4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through BEAUMADIER, BANG ON THE BELL, NIGHT ON EARTH, GLORY FIGHTER) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROSENPUR (GER) (read through SUGAR HILL BABE, KNICKS, ECCLESIASTICAL, DURAN) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (89.0)Improving fast — last run rated 89, 17pts above his recent average of 71.3Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 1.34)Jockey goes well at this track (1.85x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led over 2f out, hung left, edged out close home, kept on”
#3 ROSENPUR (GER) FRONT
DRAW 12 · OR 82 · George Wood / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−
87.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 4.3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
87.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 26 tries · beats market expectation (1.76)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 98.02% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Hood
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 5f110y · rated 876thClass 3 · 6f22y · rated 855thClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 911stClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 916thClass 4 · 5f · rated 83
Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROSENPUR (GER)best 91needs 90–922025-01-30 · TFR 66 · 4f213y · Std · C62025-02-03 · TFR 74 · 5f22y · Std · C62025-02-17 · TFR 75 · 6f20y · Std/Slow · C52025-02-24 · TFR 52 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-03-05 · TFR 63 · 6f · Slow · C52025-03-15 · TFR 75 · 5f22y · Std/Slow · C52025-04-07 · TFR 72 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-04-21 · TFR 79 · 5f22y · Std · C52025-05-08 · TFR 83 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C22025-06-01 · TFR 77 · 5f · Slow · C42025-06-14 · TFR 70 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-11 · TFR 82 · 5f110y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-12 · TFR 32 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-26 · TFR 88 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-14 · TFR 76 · 5f22y · Firm · C42025-08-27 · TFR 82 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-10-18 · TFR 84 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C22025-11-03 · TFR 60 · 6f20y · Slow · C42026-04-22 · TFR 89 · 5f211y · Gd/Frm · C42026-04-29 · TFR 83 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-08 · TFR 91 · 6f18y · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 91 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C32026-06-27 · TFR 85 · 6f18y · Good · C32026-07-10 · TFR 87 · 5f110y · Good · C430 Jan 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jennie Candlish · 488 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chester6/4413.6%1.593/2313.0%2.0
In fields of 12-156/708.6%1.244/3611.1%1.63
At this time of year (Q3)16/12512.8%1.283/1520.0%1.43
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark25/10823.1%1.442/405.0%0.39
In Class 4-5 company25/16914.8%1.414/785.1%0.47
Over 5-6f trips14/8516.5%1.232/267.7%0.76
On turf27/20113.4%1.327/779.1%0.79
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
The rider
George Wood · last 14 days: 2/33 · at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n58) · with this yard: A/E 1 (n176)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 12
+0.18 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 12
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 12
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length11th of 12
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Chester5f110yGood44th8379Fast early42.8 -0.1696.5+0.08
27 Jun 26Chester6f17yGood36th8486True41.1 +0.0699.8+0.06
13 Jun 26Chester5f15yGd/Sft35th8483.5True41.1 +0.3698.6-0.04
8 May 26Chester6f17yGood41st8079True41.6 +0.2395.2+0.01
29 Apr 26Musselburgh5fGood46th8073Fast early42.3 +0.4597.5+0.04
22 Apr 26Catterick Bridge5f212yGd/Frm42nd8079True41.3 +0.13100.5+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledfast3fledfast4fledpar5fledslow6f+0.30very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-22 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ACES WILD (IRE) · 5 meetings≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
10 Jul 26 · 5f110y · Good — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.5L behind · OR 83 v 76 · race median 79 (today 81)
COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 5th vs 9th, 2.3L ahead · OR 84 v 80 · race median 84 (today 81)
AL HUSSAR · 2 meetings≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
13 Jun 26 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 5th vs 6th, 1.25L ahead · OR 84 v 83 · race median 84 (today 81)
MIRACULOUS (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 4.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
8 May 26 · 6f17y · Good — finished 1st vs 5th, 2.6L ahead · OR 80 v 80 · race median 79 (today 81)
TRUE PROMISE · 1 meeting≈ 1.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms
10 Jul 26 · 5f110y · Good — finished 4th vs 5th, 1L ahead · OR 83 v 81 · race median 79 (today 81)
MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jul 25 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 6th, 6.3L ahead · OR 76 v 86 · race median 78 (today 81)
Read through a common rival
vs SECRET MISTRAL (read through SUGAR HILL BABE, KNICKS, ECCLESIASTICAL, DURAN) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GRANDLAD (IRE) (read through HIYA MAITE, VENTURE CAPITAL, CHANGEOFMIND, CURIOUS ROVER) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RIGHT AND EXACT (read through JM JHINGREE, CHANGEOFMIND, CURIOUS ROVER, WOOHOO) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through GLORY FIGHTER, CURIOUS ROVER, BANG ON THE BELL, HEDGE FUND) ≈ -0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (87.7)Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 1.76)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 11 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader, pushed along over 2f out, ran wide home turn, weakened final 100 yds”
#4 ACES WILD (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 11 · OR 76 · Taryn Langley / Adrian Wintle
MARKET drifting 13.5 → 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
82.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; one-paced late — 5th of 12 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
82.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 30 tries · beats market expectation (1.45)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.98% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 5f110y · rated 821stClass 5 · 5f44y · rated 841stClass 5 · 5f · rated 816thClass 5 · 5f · rated 663rdClass 4 · 5f154y · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ACES WILD (IRE)needs 90–92best 842025-02-24 · TFR 76 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-03-15 · TFR 70 · 5f22y · Std/Slow · C52025-04-07 · TFR 70 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-04-18 · TFR 68 · 5f · Slow · C52025-04-21 · TFR 75 · 5f22y · Std · C52025-06-03 · TFR 60 · 6f20y · Slow · C52025-07-03 · TFR 74 · 5f33y · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-26 · TFR 76 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-05 · TFR 83 · 5f33y · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-30 · TFR 62 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C42026-04-17 · TFR 75 · 5f161y · Good · C42026-05-04 · TFR 66 · 5f11y · Good · C52026-05-26 · TFR 81 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-01 · TFR 84 · 5f33y · Firm · C52026-07-10 · TFR 82 · 5f110y · Good · C424 Feb 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Wintle · 589 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/14212.0%0.944/1822.2%1.34
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company7/1096.4%0.882/336.1%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)1/616.7%1.450/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
The rider
Taryn Langley · last 14 days: 0/10 · with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n63)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 12
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 12
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 12
100.0%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 12
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Chester5f110yGood43rd7679Fast early43.2 +0.1699.2+0.30
1 Jun 26Newbury5f34yFirm51st7469True42.0 +0.08102.6+0.02
26 May 26Bath5f10yGd/Frm51st7065.5True41.9 +0.42100.7+0.08
4 May 26Bath5f10yGood56th7272True40.4 +0.01101.0+0.24
17 Apr 26Bath5f160yGood43rd7375True40.7 +0.3094.8+0.08
30 Sep 25Bath5f10yGd/Frm47th7375Fast early40.6 -1.21101.6+0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.45slow2f+0.75par3f+0.69fast4f+0.60fast5f+0.31par6f+0.22slow
Timed runs 2025-09-30 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ROSENPUR (GER) · 5 meetings≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
10 Jul 26 · 5f110y · Good — finished 3rd vs 4th, 0.5L ahead · OR 76 v 83 · race median 79 (today 81)
TRUE PROMISE · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
10 Jul 26 · 5f110y · Good — finished 3rd vs 5th, 1.5L ahead · OR 76 v 81 · race median 79 (today 81)
SECRET MISTRAL · 1 meeting≈ 1.1L ahead on today's terms · confirms
26 Jul 25 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 1.45L ahead · OR 68 v 74 · race median 69 (today 81)
Read through a common rival
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through OVER SPICED, BANG ON THE BELL, HINT OF HUMOUR, LEVEL UP) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GRANDLAD (IRE) (read through FAUSTUS, CHANGEOFMIND, CRESSIDA WILDES, KINETIC FORCE) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AL HUSSAR (read through CHANGEOFMIND, TEES AGGREGATES, KINETIC FORCE, KNICKS) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) (read through DIOMED SPIRIT, STAR CHORUS, KINETIC FORCE, TOOLATETONEGOTIATE) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.45)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)
LTO comment
“waited with, headway when switched final 1f, stayed on to lead late on”
#5 AL HUSSAR MID
DRAW 2 · OR 81 · Oliver Stammers / Grant Tuer
MARKET backed 6.2 → 3.75 · the market rates it a 26% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 2−
81.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 10.3pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
81.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 27 tries · beats market expectation (1.15)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.64% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 4 · 5f · rated 714thClass 3 · 5f · rated 896thClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 851stClass 4 · 5f · rated 905thClass 4 · 6f · rated 81
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for AL HUSSARneeds 90–92best 902025-05-07 · TFR 47 · 5f15y · Good · C32025-05-16 · TFR 59 · 5f · Good · C32025-06-07 · TFR 72 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-06-21 · TFR 85 · 5f · Firm · C42025-07-05 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good · C42025-07-25 · TFR 77 · 5f88y · Good · C42025-08-02 · TFR 88 · 5f · Good · C42025-08-08 · TFR 67 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-14 · TFR 84 · 5f · Good · C42025-09-20 · TFR 88 · 5f15y · Heavy · C32025-09-29 · TFR 90 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-10-10 · TFR 66 · 5f · Good · C32025-10-31 · TFR 72 · 5f · Good · C42026-04-04 · TFR 75 · 5f · Soft · C42026-04-12 · TFR 84 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-04-29 · TFR 85 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-16 · TFR 89 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-23 · TFR 81 · 6f · Good · C42026-05-31 · TFR 90 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 85 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C32026-06-25 · TFR 89 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-10 · TFR 71 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C47 May 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grant Tuer · 704 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-RISING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)19/18510.3%0.915/2025.0%1.99
Above their last winning mark15/1649.1%0.7910/4721.3%1.94
On turf32/3569.0%0.8816/8119.8%1.79
In Class 4-5 company33/3399.7%0.9612/7815.4%1.54
Coming back after 15 to 45 days16/2008.0%0.778/5813.8%1.36
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-157/1365.1%0.671/323.1%0.43
Over 5-6f trips ✦23/2349.8%0.924/498.2%0.72
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)2/922.2%2.821/425.0%2.05
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
The rider
Oliver Stammers · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Chester: A/E 0.9 (n9) · with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n365)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 12
+0.22 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 43.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 12
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 12
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 12
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26York5fGd/Frm47th8280.5Fast early43.0 -0.1398.5+0.24
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm34th8383.5True43.7 +0.0296.3+0.14
13 Jun 26Chester5f15yGd/Sft36th8383.5True41.6 +0.8798.2+0.02
31 May 26Thirsk5fGood41st8079True44.1 +0.29102.4+0.30
23 May 26York6fGood45th8079True43.1 +0.0195.8+0.28
16 May 26Thirsk5fGood42nd7776Fast early42.9 +0.24100.7+0.21
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.33par2f+0.55par3f+0.57par4f+0.52slow5f+0.83slow
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 1.0L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Jun 26 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 6th vs 9th, 1.05L ahead · OR 83 v 80 · race median 84 (today 81)
ROSENPUR (GER) · 2 meetings≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
13 Jun 26 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 6th vs 5th, 1.25L behind · OR 83 v 84 · race median 84 (today 81)
RIGHT AND EXACT · 2 meetings≈ 1.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.3L behind · OR 77 v 78 · race median 76 (today 81)
MIRACULOUS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.7L behind on today's terms · reverses
23 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 9th, 1.65L ahead · OR 80 v 77 · race median 79 (today 81)
Read through a common rival
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through ALBEGONE, GLORY FIGHTER, MONEY POCKETS, CURIOUS ROVER) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) (read through SMART VISION, KODIAC THRILLER, TIRIAC, LION'S HOUSE) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GRANDLAD (IRE) (read through SMART VISION, CHANGEOFMIND, EQUITY LAW, JENEVER) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ACES WILD (IRE) (read through CHANGEOFMIND, TEES AGGREGATES, KINETIC FORCE, KNICKS) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 3 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“off pace, closed up only late”
#6 TRUE PROMISE MID
DRAW 10 · OR 81 · Harry Russell / Fionn McSharry
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 11pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
81.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 30 tries · below market expectation (0.43)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.05% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 5f110y · rated 811stClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 8812thClass 4 · 6f · rated 642ndClass 5 · 5f110y · rated 862ndClass 5 · 6f · rated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 25 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TRUE PROMISEneeds 90–92best 882025-01-30 · TFR 75 · 6f15y · Std · C32025-02-13 · TFR 78 · 5f · Slow · C42025-03-04 · TFR 73 · 4f213y · Std · C32025-04-16 · TFR 67 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-04-27 · TFR 79 · 4f213y · Slow · C42025-05-09 · TFR 81 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-19 · TFR 30 · 5f183y · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-31 · TFR 66 · 6f · Firm · C42025-07-03 · TFR 69 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-28 · TFR 74 · 6f15y · Std · C42025-09-23 · TFR 80 · 4f213y · Std · C42025-10-03 · TFR 80 · 6f15y · Std · C52025-12-05 · TFR 80 · 5f · Std/Slow · C52025-12-13 · TFR 79 · 5f · Slow · C42025-12-28 · TFR 66 · 6f15y · Std · C52026-01-16 · TFR 81 · 6f · Std · C52026-01-24 · TFR 81 · 6f · Std · C42026-02-07 · TFR 82 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-02-19 · TFR 79 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-24 · TFR 76 · 6f · Slow · C52026-04-01 · TFR 82 · 6f · Slow · C52026-04-26 · TFR 86 · 5f110y · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-09 · TFR 64 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-29 · TFR 88 · 5f22y · Std · C52026-07-10 · TFR 81 · 5f110y · Good · C430 Jan 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Fionn McSharry · 110 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark7/2429.2%1.730/50.0%0.0
On turf3/417.3%1.00/110.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company5/519.8%1.031/185.6%0.38
Over 5-6f trips5/2817.9%1.511/147.1%0.4
Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/4010.0%0.791/1010.0%0.6
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)1/520.0%2.560/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)2/345.9%0.650/30.0%0.0
In fields of 12-15 (small sample)1/254.0%0.50/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
The rider
Harry Russell · last 14 days: 4/14 · at Chester: A/E 1.1 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 12
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 12
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 12
102.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 12
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Chester5f110yGood45th8179Fast early42.9 -0.1598.4+0.05
29 May 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd51st7473—41.6 -0.49101.5—
9 May 26Ascot6fGd/Frm412th7573—40.9 -0.33102.3+0.12—
26 Apr 26Wetherby5f110yGd/Frm52nd7471.5True41.3 +0.39103.4+0.05
1 Apr 26Kempton Park6fSlow52nd7373True40.7 +0.00103.9+0.00
19 Feb 26Newcastle5fStd55th7571True41.4 +0.35102.8+0.36
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.30slow2f+0.46fast3f+0.50fast4f+0.57par5f+0.44slow6f+0.46very slow
Timed runs 2026-02-19 to 2026-07-10. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SECRET MISTRAL · 2 meetings · n/a
3 Jul 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 2nd, 1.3L behind · OR 75 v 71 · race median 71 (today 81) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
SPENDMORE LANE · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · confirms
29 May 26 · 5f21y · Std — finished 1st vs 3rd, 3.2L ahead · OR 74 v 74 · race median 73 (today 81)
MIRACULOUS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses
23 Sep 25 · 4f214y · Std — finished 2nd vs 7th, 6.8L ahead · OR 73 v 86 · race median 80 (today 81)
ROSENPUR (GER) · 1 meeting≈ 1.3L behind on today's terms · reverses
10 Jul 26 · 5f110y · Good — finished 5th vs 4th, 1L behind · OR 81 v 83 · race median 79 (today 81)
ACES WILD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
10 Jul 26 · 5f110y · Good — finished 5th vs 3rd, 1.5L behind · OR 81 v 76 · race median 79 (today 81)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 4 rival(s) met (-1.0L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RIGHT AND EXACT (read through CHANGEOFMIND, ALBEGONE, BRAZILIAN BELLE, CURIOUS ROVER) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AL HUSSAR (read through CHANGEOFMIND, ALBEGONE, TIRIAC, JM JHINGREE) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) (read through CHANGEOFMIND, WEN MOON, MARK'S CHOICE, SMART VISION) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GRANDLAD (IRE) (read through SMART VISION, CHANGEOFMIND, HIYA MAITE, CRESSIDA WILDES) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 74)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway over 1f out, led final 1f, drew clear”
#7 COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 79 · S. B. Kirrane / Tim Easterby
MARKET backed 10 → 7.8 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 15pts off the top, dropping in class; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 40 tries · beats market expectation (1.82)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.85% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Tongue strap · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 776thClass 4 · 5f · rated 8718thClass 2 · 5f · rated 481stClass 4 · 5f · rated 862ndClass 2 · 5f · rated 89
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for COPPER KNIGHT (IRE)needs 90–92best 892025-04-24 · TFR 72 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-08 · TFR 78 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C22025-05-21 · TFR 82 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-09 · TFR 82 · 5f · Good · C52025-06-14 · TFR 80 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-11 · TFR 81 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-26 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-10 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-20 · TFR 71 · 5f88y · Good · C22025-09-05 · TFR 73 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-20 · TFR 74 · 5f15y · Heavy · C32025-09-27 · TFR 82 · 5f · Good · C42025-10-04 · TFR 84 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42025-10-10 · TFR 63 · 5f · Good · C32026-04-25 · TFR 89 · 5f · Good · C22026-05-04 · TFR 86 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-14 · TFR 48 · 5f · Good · C22026-05-31 · TFR 87 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 77 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C324 Apr 2513 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Back at their last winning mark8/5315.1%1.171/205.0%0.56
In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)7/6910.1%1.260/160.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 89 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
The rider
S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20 · at Chester: A/E 1.27 (n45) · with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n644)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 12
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 12
-0.01s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed8th of 12
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 12
7.54 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Chester5f15yGd/Sft39th8083.5True41.0 +0.1998.6+0.00
31 May 26Thirsk5fGood46th8179True43.5 -0.30102.4+0.05
14 May 26York5fGood218th8388True42.6 +0.0695.1+0.00
4 May 26Beverley5fGd/Sft41st7977True40.5 +0.00100.4-0.12
25 Apr 26Ripon5fGood22nd7879True42.3 -0.2099.5+0.00
10 Oct 25York5fGood312th7882.5True41.8 -0.1997.0-0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.32par2f+0.30par3f+0.26par4f+0.39par5f+0.70slow
Timed runs 2025-10-10 to 2026-06-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
AL HUSSAR · 4 meetings≈ 1.0L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Jun 26 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 9th vs 6th, 1.05L behind · OR 80 v 83 · race median 84 (today 81)
SECRET MISTRAL · 3 meetings≈ 6.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
5 Sep 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 6th, 0.6L behind · OR 76 v 73 · race median 73 (today 81)
ROSENPUR (GER) · 3 meetings≈ 2.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 9th vs 5th, 2.3L behind · OR 80 v 84 · race median 84 (today 81)
Read through a common rival
vs MIRACULOUS (IRE) (read through VINCE L'AMOUR, DAKOTA GOLD, JENEVER, FRANCISCO'S PIECE) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GRANDLAD (IRE) (read through SMART VISION, CHANGEOFMIND, VENTURA EXPRESS, EQUITY LAW) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through ALBEGONE, GLORY FIGHTER, NIGHT ON EARTH, HEDGE FUND) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RIGHT AND EXACT (read through VINCE L'AMOUR, CHANGEOFMIND, KINETIC FORCE, EQUITY LAW) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (40 tries, beats market expectation at 1.82)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 7 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“never better than mid-field”
#8 MIRACULOUS (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 9 · OR 71 · John Egan / Tim Easterby
MARKET backed 15.5 → 11.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
74.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 17.3pts off the top, dropping in class; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
74.7 · ranked #8 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 81
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 17 tries · below market expectation (0.73)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 97.6% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 78 last run (DONCASTER · 3 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 3 · 5f · rated 715thClass 2 · 6f · rated 753rdClass 3 · 6f22y · rated 789thClass 4 · 6f · rated 735thClass 4 · 6f · rated 68
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MIRACULOUS (IRE)best 92needs 90–922025-01-24 · TFR 86 · 6f · Std · C52025-02-15 · TFR 80 · 7f13y · Slow · C42025-06-09 · TFR 70 · 5f22y · Good · C22025-06-26 · TFR 86 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-12 · TFR 92 · 6f18y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-31 · TFR 88 · 6f20y · Std · C42025-08-14 · TFR 78 · 5f22y · Firm · C42025-08-30 · TFR 88 · 6f18y · Firm · C32025-09-23 · TFR 64 · 4f213y · Std · C42025-10-18 · TFR 46 · 6f20y · Slow · C32026-04-08 · TFR 73 · 5f211y · Good · C42026-05-08 · TFR 83 · 6f18y · Good · C42026-05-16 · TFR 68 · 6f · Good · C42026-05-23 · TFR 73 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 78 · 6f18y · Gd/Sft · C32026-06-18 · TFR 75 · 6f · Good · C22026-07-03 · TFR 71 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C324 Jan 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)7/6910.1%1.260/160.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
The rider
John Egan · last 14 days: 0/15 · at Chester: A/E 0.48 (n20) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 12
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 12
-0.01s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed12th of 12
97.6%
One-paced late
Stride length12th of 12
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm37th7478True41.3 -0.05103.0-0.08
18 Jun 26Ripon6fGood25th7688True42.8 +0.0096.8—
13 Jun 26Chester6f17yGd/Sft33rd7682True41.0 +0.3597.1+0.00
23 May 26York6fGood49th7779True43.1 -0.0194.5-0.07
16 May 26Newmarket6fGood45th7974.5True41.8 +0.4596.3-0.07
8 May 26Chester6f17yGood45th8079True41.6 +0.2697.9+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.09par2f+0.10slow3f+0.11par4f+0.16par5f+0.49par
Timed runs 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ROSENPUR (GER) · 2 meetings≈ 4.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
8 May 26 · 6f17y · Good — finished 5th vs 1st, 2.6L behind · OR 80 v 80 · race median 79 (today 81)
TRUE PROMISE · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L ahead on today's terms · confirms
23 Sep 25 · 4f214y · Std — finished 7th vs 2nd, 6.8L behind · OR 86 v 73 · race median 80 (today 81)
AL HUSSAR · 1 meeting≈ 0.7L ahead on today's terms · confirms
23 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 9th vs 5th, 1.65L behind · OR 77 v 80 · race median 79 (today 81)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+1.9L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) (read through VINCE L'AMOUR, DAKOTA GOLD, JENEVER, FRANCISCO'S PIECE) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SECRET MISTRAL (read through INTERVENTION, VINCE L'AMOUR, NIGHT ON EARTH, PAWS FOR THOUGHT) ≈ +4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through EMERALD HARMONY, NIGHT ON EARTH, JENEVER, ARARAT) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RIGHT AND EXACT (read through TIRIAC, VINCE L'AMOUR, BLIND BEGGAR, EMERALD HARMONY) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
10lb below his last winning mark (71 today vs 81)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“disputed lead until 2f out, no extra final 1f”
#9 SPENDMORE LANE MID
DRAW 8 · OR 73 · Laura Pearson / David Loughnane
MARKET drifting 27 → 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
73 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 19pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
73 · ranked #9 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 22 tries · beats market expectation (1.07)
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.59% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 7 places on the course scale (THIRSK 12th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 9lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 72 last run (THIRSK · 16 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time eyeshields
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 5 · 5f · rated 653rdClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 743rdClass 5 · 6f · rated 801stClass 5 · 5f · rated 807thClass 5 · 5f · rated 50
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SPENDMORE LANEneeds 90–92best 802025-07-15 · TFR 65 · 6f18y · Gd/Sft · C42025-08-02 · TFR 27 · 5f · Good · C52025-08-21 · TFR 61 · 5f · Slow · C42025-09-02 · TFR 18 · 4f213y · Std · C62025-09-23 · TFR 65 · 5f · Std · C62025-11-06 · TFR 64 · 5f · Slow · C52025-11-29 · TFR 69 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-12-10 · TFR 51 · 6f · Std · C62025-12-13 · TFR 53 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-12-22 · TFR 57 · 5f22y · Slow · C62026-01-27 · TFR 64 · 5f22y · Std · C62026-02-10 · TFR 61 · 6f · Slow · C62026-02-17 · TFR 64 · 6f20y · Std · C52026-02-21 · TFR 72 · 5f · Std · C62026-03-02 · TFR 79 · 5f22y · Std · C62026-03-07 · TFR 69 · 6f · Std · C52026-04-08 · TFR 50 · 5f9y · Good · C52026-04-28 · TFR 80 · 5f · Std · C52026-05-18 · TFR 80 · 6f · Good · C52026-05-29 · TFR 74 · 5f22y · Std · C52026-06-16 · TFR 65 · 5f · Good · C515 Jul 2516 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Loughnane · 753 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/1735.2%0.624/2218.2%1.64
At Chester2/345.9%0.863/2412.5%1.56
Coming back after 15 to 45 days22/2419.1%0.9312/9812.2%1.27
On turf22/2618.4%0.9112/9512.6%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-157/1136.2%0.991/293.4%0.46
In Class 4-5 company ✦33/3708.9%0.9810/1158.7%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 82 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
The rider
Laura Pearson · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Chester: A/E 1.71 (n17) · with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n191)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 12
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 12
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 12
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 12
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood57th7472True42.3 +0.0498.0+0.00
29 May 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd53rd7473—41.7 -0.41101.4—
18 May 26Lingfield6fGood53rd7472True42.2 +0.0097.7-0.13
28 Apr 26Lingfield5fStd51st7069Slow early41.3 +0.00102.9+0.00
8 Apr 26Nottingham5fGood57th7068True41.4 -0.2297.5+0.58
7 Mar 26Chelmsford City6fStd53rd6674True41.0 +0.65106.1+0.91
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.09fast2f+0.14par3f+0.17par4f+0.26slow5f+0.84very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-07 to 2026-06-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TRUE PROMISE · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L behind on today's terms · reverses
29 May 26 · 5f21y · Std — finished 3rd vs 1st, 3.2L behind · OR 74 v 74 · race median 73 (today 81)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RIGHT AND EXACT (read through ALBEGONE, GLORY FIGHTER, EMERALD HARMONY, CURIOUS ROVER) ≈ -5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ACES WILD (IRE) (read through OVER SPICED, BANG ON THE BELL, HINT OF HUMOUR, LEVEL UP) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AL HUSSAR (read through ALBEGONE, GLORY FIGHTER, MONEY POCKETS, CURIOUS ROVER) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MIRACULOUS (IRE) (read through EMERALD HARMONY, NIGHT ON EARTH, JENEVER, ARARAT) ≈ -4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.71x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“close up, shaken up 2f out, faded”
#10 GRANDLAD (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 81 · Ray Dawson / James Horton
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
69 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 23pts off the top, in form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
69 · ranked #10 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 23 tries · beats market expectation (2.02)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.74% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 9lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 72 last run (NEWMARKET · 17 Jul 26)
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 4 · 5f · rated 431stClass 3 · 5f · rated 874thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 778thClass 3 · 5f · rated 705thClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GRANDLAD (IRE)best 92needs 90–922025-05-22 · TFR 88 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-07 · TFR 58 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-23 · TFR 86 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-11 · TFR 47 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-02 · TFR 88 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-16 · TFR 88 · 5f · Firm · C42025-08-23 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-09-13 · TFR 59 · 5f · Std · C42025-11-01 · TFR 87 · 5f · Slow · C42025-11-08 · TFR 74 · 5f22y · Slow · C32025-11-20 · TFR 70 · 5f · Slow · C32025-12-15 · TFR 77 · 5f22y · Std · C42026-04-26 · TFR 87 · 5f9y · Good · C32026-07-17 · TFR 43 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C422 May 2517 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Horton · 366 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark4/4010.0%0.886/1442.9%3.25
In fields of 12-150/600.0%0.02/825.0%2.62
Over 5-6f trips11/10910.1%1.143/1915.8%2.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)8/1097.3%0.881/156.7%0.61
On turf16/15410.4%1.153/446.8%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)0/30.0%0.0—
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)5/519.8%0.970/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
The rider
Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 7/28 · at Chester: A/E 0.45 (n26) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 12
-0.25 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 12
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed6th of 12
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 12
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jul 26Newmarket5fGd/Frm46th8272—41.5 -0.71103.8+0.00—
26 Apr 26Nottingham5fGood31st8086True42.0 -0.1798.2-0.04
15 Dec 25Wolverhampton5f21yStd44th8181True42.8 +0.0999.1+0.00
20 Nov 25Newcastle5fSlow38th8284.5True42.8 +0.2496.4+0.03
8 Nov 25Wolverhampton5f21ySlow35th8389.5Fast early41.8 -0.41101.1+0.27
1 Nov 25Newcastle5fSlow42nd8377Slow early41.0 -0.5499.9-0.24
Timed runs 2025-11-01 to 2026-07-17. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Apr 26 · 5f · Good — finished 1st vs 5th, 1.55L ahead · OR 80 v 86 · race median 86 (today 81)
SECRET MISTRAL · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
15 Dec 25 · 5f21y · Std — finished 4th vs 3rd, 1.5L behind · OR 81 v 74 · race median 81 (today 81)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RIGHT AND EXACT (read through MUKER, POP STAR, CLASSY AL, CHANGEOFMIND) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ACES WILD (IRE) (read through FAUSTUS, CHANGEOFMIND, CRESSIDA WILDES, KINETIC FORCE) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs COPPER KNIGHT (IRE) (read through SMART VISION, CHANGEOFMIND, VENTURA EXPRESS, EQUITY LAW) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AL HUSSAR (read through SMART VISION, CHANGEOFMIND, EQUITY LAW, JENEVER) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 2.02)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“made all, in command approaching final 1f, closed down final 100 yds, just held on”
#11 HENRYTHENATE HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 76 · Dylan Hogan / Patrick Morris
MARKET drifting 20 → 36 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 7−
65.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 26.7pts off the top, dropping in class; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
65.3 · ranked #11 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 16 tries · beats market expectation (1.64)
Days since last run
50
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.61% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 78 last run (EPSOM DOWNS · 5 Jun 26)
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
15thClass 2 · 5f · rated 435thClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 817thClass 4 · 6f · rated 728thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 689thClass 2 · 6f · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HENRYTHENATEneeds 90–92best 832025-04-17 · TFR 13 · 5f · Good · C42025-05-27 · TFR 52 · 5f22y · Std · C52025-06-11 · TFR 60 · 5f · Good · C52025-06-25 · TFR 52 · 5f · Soft · C52025-07-22 · TFR 56 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-08-30 · TFR 50 · 5f · Slow · C52025-09-20 · TFR 68 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-10-06 · TFR 65 · 5f22y · Std · C52025-10-29 · TFR 51 · 5f9y · Soft · C52026-01-24 · TFR 78 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-12 · TFR 83 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-27 · TFR 72 · 6f · Std/Slow · C22026-03-17 · TFR 68 · 5f22y · Std · C42026-04-03 · TFR 72 · 6f · Std · C42026-05-08 · TFR 81 · 5f15y · Good · C32026-06-05 · TFR 43 · 5f · Good · C217 Apr 255 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Patrick Morris · 466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 46 to 90 days1/323.1%0.591/911.1%1.47
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chester0/110.0%0.00/110.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/731.4%0.20/120.0%0.0
On turf5/836.0%0.830/260.0%0.0
In fields of 12-152/504.0%0.760/180.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company ✦7/1424.9%0.682/673.0%0.36
Above their last winning mark ✦7/897.9%0.773/624.8%0.39
Over 5-6f trips10/1069.4%0.992/267.7%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 87 is below the ~90.0 the race demands
The rider
Dylan Hogan · last 14 days: 3/10 · at Chester: A/E 1.21 (n7) · with this yard: A/E 2.43 (n10)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 12
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 12
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 12
101.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 12
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs5fGood215th7878Fast early44.7 +0.1094.0+0.12
8 May 26Chester5f15yGood35th7980True41.4 -0.2397.7+0.05
3 Apr 26Lingfield6fStd47th8076.5True41.9 +0.37102.6+0.10
17 Mar 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd48th8179Slow early41.4 +0.00107.4+0.17
27 Feb 26Lingfield6fStd/Slow29th8180.5True42.5 +0.41105.1+0.42
12 Feb 26Lingfield5fStd51st7373Fast early42.9 +0.16102.8-0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.23fast2f+0.38par3f+0.43par4f+0.81slow5f+1.77very slow
Timed runs 2026-02-12 to 2026-06-05. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs SECRET MISTRAL (read through ARLO'S GIRL, ALFA DUPLICATE) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) (read through ALVIN, FORTIFICATION) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 73)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.64)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“in touch, weakening when hampered final 1f”
#12 MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 81 · Jason Hart / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET drifting 27 → 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
62.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 29.3pts off the top, proven at the trip; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
62.7 · ranked #12 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 83
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 30 tries · beats market expectation (1.56)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.65% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 23 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 4 · 5f · rated 547thClass 3 · 5f · rated 7013thClass 2 · 5f · rated 645thClass 3 · 5f · rated 881stClass 4 · 5f · rated 90
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE)best 92needs 90–922025-02-14 · TFR 72 · 4f213y · Std · C42025-02-20 · TFR 66 · 5f · Slow · C32025-05-03 · TFR 81 · 5f · Good · C32025-05-17 · TFR 82 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-03 · TFR 90 · 5f · Good · C42025-06-21 · TFR 86 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-11 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-26 · TFR 72 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C42025-12-15 · TFR 45 · 5f22y · Std · C42025-12-28 · TFR 69 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-01-12 · TFR 86 · 5f · Std · C42026-01-17 · TFR 87 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-01-31 · TFR 82 · 5f · Std/Slow · C42026-02-20 · TFR 92 · 4f213y · Std/Slow · C42026-03-14 · TFR 86 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-03-27 · TFR 80 · 5f · Std · C42026-04-09 · TFR 90 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-04-26 · TFR 88 · 5f9y · Good · C32026-05-23 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good · C22026-06-06 · TFR 70 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-03 · TFR 54 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C414 Feb 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Sean Quinn · 788 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips35/32810.7%0.9713/9513.7%1.58
On turf46/4859.5%0.8411/10610.4%1.27
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1512/1428.5%1.01/372.7%0.37
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)0/310.0%0.01/425.0%3.03
Below their last winning mark (small sample)4/2913.8%1.022/1513.3%2.12
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.0 demand
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 9/48 · at Chester: A/E 0.85 (n87) · with this yard: A/E 0.87 (n494)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 12
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 12
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 12
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 12
7.59 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Beverley5fGd/Frm48th8381.5—41.4 -0.11100.2+0.00—
6 Jun 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm37th8586True42.5 -0.32100.7+0.00
23 May 26York5fGood213th8687True42.1 -0.1498.6+0.12
26 Apr 26Nottingham5fGood35th8686True42.2 +0.0499.2+0.14
9 Apr 26Southwell4f214yStd41st8385Fast early43.4 -0.2599.6+0.04
27 Mar 26Newcastle5fStd48th8481.5True42.0 +0.2599.5+0.06
Timed runs 2026-03-27 to 2026-07-03. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
GRANDLAD (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Apr 26 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 1st, 1.55L behind · OR 86 v 80 · race median 86 (today 81)
SECRET MISTRAL · 1 meeting≈ 5.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Dec 25 · 5f21y · Std — finished 7th vs 3rd, 9.25L behind · OR 84 v 74 · race median 81 (today 81)
ROSENPUR (GER) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jul 25 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 1st, 6.3L behind · OR 86 v 76 · race median 78 (today 81)
Read through a common rival
vs SPENDMORE LANE (read through ALBEGONE, LION'S HOUSE, JENEVER, PIXIE DIVA) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RIGHT AND EXACT (read through I'M NEXT, COUNSEL, MUKER, TIRIAC) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AL HUSSAR (read through SMART VISION, KODIAC THRILLER, TIRIAC, LION'S HOUSE) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ACES WILD (IRE) (read through DIOMED SPIRIT, STAR CHORUS, KINETIC FORCE, TOOLATETONEGOTIATE) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (81 today vs 83)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.56)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 10 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“handy, lost place over 1f out”