Class 4 · 1m2f70y · Good (Good to Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 81
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:49 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good (Good to Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
middle (9-12f)
41
41.5%
70.7%
39%
70.7%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
small fields (<=7)
136
33.8%
66.2%
35.3%
70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, LEXINGTON JET (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 3.1 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (76% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (59% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, NOLTON CROSS (IRE) leads on 92, 1.5pts clear of DUC DE KENT (FR) — meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is SEVEN SISTERS — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making SEVEN SISTERS the 48% favourite — a horse our figures rate 5th.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
NOLTON CROSS (IRE)
OR 85 · David Probert / Hugo Palmer
MARKET drifting 4.9 → 5.7 · the market rates it a 17% chance
92.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−4lb below his last winning mark (85 today vs 89)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
DUC DE KENT (FR)
OR 80 · Jason Watson / Ian Williams
MARKET 100 · the market rates it a 1% chance
90.5FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (90.5)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
BREAK THE BANK
OR 76 · S. B. Kirrane / Tim Easterby
MARKET 6.8 · the market rates it a 14% chance
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (84.0)Race-fit — ran 9 days agoRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1NOLTON CROSS (IRE)net +7figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, fits the winner profile on recency, meets much weaker company by the marks
2SEVEN SISTERSnet +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard hot, fits the winner profile on recency
3PARLANDOnet +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. SEVEN SISTERS is the one to beat it — an edge NOLTON CROSS (IRE) lacks: a yard in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
LEXINGTON JET (IRE) FIGURE #6
David Loughnane's runners kept to the same class win 12.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. David Loughnane's runners coming back after 8 to 14 days win 15.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 37% · midfield runners 23% (30 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Flat, very short (~240y) — favours horses already on/near the pace finish. Winners’ energy signature: 48.08% spent early (band 47.33–48.88%, 44 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.34s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
17 similar races at CHESTER, 9.8-10.8f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (76% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (59% from the first three favourites). 29% won last time out, 24% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
53% 4yo
35% 3yo
12% 6yo+
Last ran
65% 15-45d
12% within 14d
12% 91d+
Market
41% 4th+ in the market
35% favourite
18% 2nd favourite
LTO form
47% unplaced last time
29% won last time
24% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: NOLTON CROSS (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · DUC DE KENT (FR) is unraced on softer ground · BREAK THE BANK is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
NOLTON CROSS (IRE)PROMINENT49.4%103.5concedes ~3.1L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and finds plenty late
PARLANDOMID48.6%104.6a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LEXINGTON JET (IRE)FRONT50.6%97.2the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
DUC DE KENT (FR)MID47.2%99.4one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
SECRET BEACH (IRE)HELD-UP48.8%103.7a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BREAK THE BANKMID48.8%103.5a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SEVEN SISTERSMID49.0%106.7the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
LEXINGTON JET (IRE)FRONTtypically ~4.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.16s off the field’s best
NOLTON CROSS (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
measured on their own past openings, LEXINGTON JET (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 3.1 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1NOLTON CROSS (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 85 · David Probert / Hugo Palmer
MARKET drifting 4.9 → 5.7 · the market rates it a 17% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
92.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1.5pts clear of the next, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; concedes ~3.1L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 100
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 89
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.55% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 89.5 last run (CHESTER · 10 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chester21/13515.6%1.296/4015.0%1.3
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.24/517.8%0.65
Over 9-10f trips12/8913.5%1.184/458.9%0.73
Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0513/12510.4%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)5/3414.7%1.830/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 101 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.5 demand
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 8/41· at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n70)· with this yard: A/E 1.44 (n81)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 7
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-02 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
3 Apr 26 · 1m2f42y · Std — finished 13th vs 9th, 7.8L behind · OR 91 v 90 · race median 94 (today 81)
DUC DE KENT (FR) · 1 meeting · n/a
16 Mar 24 · 1m4f51y · Slow — finished 4th vs 5th, 4L ahead · OR 92 v 94 · race median 90 (today 81) · stale — 28m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-5.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LEXINGTON JET (IRE) (read through RASTNET, TOWERLANDS) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SECRET BEACH (IRE) (read through PATAGONIA GIRL, TROJAN SUN, AMMES, SHRIMP SHADY) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (85 today vs 89)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (92.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“disputed lead, pushed along over 2f out, weakening when short of room final 1f”
#2DUC DE KENT (FR)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 80 · Jason Watson / Ian Williams
MARKET 100 · the market rates it a 1% chance
90.5FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1.5pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
90.5 · ranked #2 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
80 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
806
Sectional clock
Last time: 16.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Timed runs 2024-03-16 to 2024-05-10 · last timed run 806 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
16 Mar 24 · 1m4f51y · Slow — finished 5th vs 4th, 4L behind · OR 94 v 92 · race median 90 (today 81)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · thin Timeform history (0 figures)
Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (90.5)Only 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultReturns from 806 days off
LTO comment
“close up, pushed along 5f out, weakened under 3f out, eased”
#3BREAK THE BANKMID
DRAW 2 · OR 76 · S. B. Kirrane / Tim Easterby
MARKET 6.8 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 8pts off the top, in form; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.45% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (HAMILTON PARK 15th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 77 last run (HAMILTON PARK · 16 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time blinkers · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark51/6747.6%0.6628/21313.1%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)7/6910.1%1.260/160.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 88 is below the ~90.5 the race demands
The rider
S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20· at Chester: A/E 1.27 (n45)· with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n644)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-2.49 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 35.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.47s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2024-07-12 to 2026-07-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split; 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs LEXINGTON JET (IRE) (read through ALTAREQ, FINANCER, LEADENHALL, BILLYB) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (84.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, threatened 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, kept on”
#4SECRET BEACH (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 78 · Luke Morris / Donald McCain
MARKET backed 18 → 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 8−
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.5s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.68% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 81 vs 77.5 last run (YORK · 10 Jul 26)
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Donald McCain · 107 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company7/5812.1%1.440/200.0%0.0
At Chester5/2420.8%2.170/80.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips0/30.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/336.1%0.590/130.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark1/119.1%1.080/40.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/4316.3%1.640/70.0%0.0
On turf6/5910.2%1.160/260.0%0.0
In fields of <=70/220.0%0.00/130.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 89 is below the ~90.5 the race demands
The rider
Luke Morris · last 14 days: 5/38· at Chester: A/E 0.75 (n27)· notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.48 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.32s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 7
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-13 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
PARLANDO · 1 meeting · n/a
22 Aug 24 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 7th vs 2nd, 5.8L behind · OR 71 v 85 · race median 74 (today 81) · stale — 23m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs NOLTON CROSS (IRE) (read through PATAGONIA GIRL, TROJAN SUN, AMMES, SHRIMP SHADY) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-7 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“tracked pace, challenged over 2f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#5SEVEN SISTERSMID
DRAW 7 · OR 81 · Edward Greatrex / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 2.06 · the market rates it a 48% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 9pts off the top, a yard in form; the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
81 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (2.11)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 3.3s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.67% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)6/2425.0%1.21/137.7%0.46
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~90.5 the race demands
The rider
Edward Greatrex · last 14 days: 0/16· at Chester: A/E 0.73 (n24)· with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n134)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
106.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 7
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Frm31st———41.2 +0.01113.7+0.06
1 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd43rd——True38.4 -0.37102.9+0.14
3 May 26Salisbury6f213yGd/Frm42nd——True38.6 +0.62103.4+0.42
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-03 to 2026-06-20. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distanceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader after 1f, led over 2f out, tackled final 1f, always holding on”
#6LEXINGTON JET (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 5 · OR 82 · Laura Pearson / David Loughnane
MARKET backed 40 → 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
78.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 13.7pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
78.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Loughnane · 753 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/1735.2%0.624/2218.2%1.64
At Chester2/345.9%0.863/2412.5%1.56
In fields of <=7 ✦15/11712.8%1.078/4219.0%1.26
On turf22/2618.4%0.9112/9512.6%1.23
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦12/11410.5%1.067/4615.2%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company ✦33/3708.9%0.9810/1158.7%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)1/425.0%3.611/520.0%2.79
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)4/429.5%1.150/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 94 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.5 demand
The rider
Laura Pearson · last 14 days: 1/9· at Chester: A/E 1.71 (n17)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n191)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.35 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
97.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 7
7.47 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-12 to 2026-07-11. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs PARLANDO (read through SAVVY VICTORY, HITCHED, MR BALOO) ≈ -5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs NOLTON CROSS (IRE) (read through RASTNET, TOWERLANDS) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BREAK THE BANK (read through ALTAREQ, FINANCER, LEADENHALL, BILLYB) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.71x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“went right start, led, hung left 2f out, headed soon after, dropped away”
#7PARLANDOMID
DRAW 6 · OR 83 · Ryan Kavanagh / Ian Williams
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
70.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 21.3pts off the top, proven at the trip; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
70.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
83 · last won off 83
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.71)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.6s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.58% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.81)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 99 at/around today's trip, clears the ~90.5 demand
The rider
Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 4/17· at Chester: A/E 0.92 (n14)· with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n219)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 81graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 7
6.87 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26York1m3f188yGood38th8579True37.6 -0.0997.0+0.18
25 May 26Redcar1m2fGd/Frm28th8787True41.2 -0.64108.2+0.00
3 Apr 26 · 1m2f42y · Std — finished 9th vs 13th, 7.8L ahead · OR 90 v 91 · race median 94 (today 81)
SECRET BEACH (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
22 Aug 24 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 2nd vs 7th, 5.8L ahead · OR 85 v 71 · race median 74 (today 81) · stale — 23m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+5.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LEXINGTON JET (IRE) (read through SAVVY VICTORY, HITCHED, MR BALOO) ≈ +5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.71)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“tracked pace, effort around 3f out, faded over 1f out”