FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chester · 17:33
Class 5 · 5f15y · Good (Good to Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 67
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 11 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:49 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good (Good to Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 56131.1%63.9%29.5%65.6%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (60% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, J STREET leads on 80, 1pts clear of KELDEO — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is MAHARAJAS EXPRESS — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making KNICKS (IRE) the 21% favourite — a horse our figures rate 4th.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 9
J STREET
OR 73 · Oliver Stammers / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET drifting 8.2 → 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)Proven over the trip (17 tries, beats market expectation at 1.53)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runs
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
KELDEO
OR 70 · Harry Russell / Ollie Pears
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance
79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)Proven over the trip (29 tries, beats market expectation at 1.65)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 12
OVER SPICED
OR 69 · Ray Dawson / Grace Harris
MARKET 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (73.7)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SAM'S XPRESS (IRE)net +9race-fit (ran <=45d), quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position
2J STREETnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, proven at trip, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
3KELDEOnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot − burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge J STREET lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
FAR TOO FIZZY  FIGURE #7
David Loughnane's runners kept to the same class win 12.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. David Loughnane's runners coming back after 8 to 14 days win 15.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (8 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 39% · prominent racers 35% (23 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Flat, very short (~240y) — favours horses already on/near the pace finish. Draw: One of the strongest in Britain, LOW favoured. 5f 10+ runner handicaps: bottom third ~67% of wins, >50% from stalls 1-2. Low advantage persists 6f/7f and middle distances. front-runners win ~3 in 10. Winners’ energy signature: 49.12% spent early (band 48.84–49.86%, 27 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.23s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Today 8 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
20 similar races at CHESTER, 4.1-6.1f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-7, all months, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (60% from the first three favourites). 25% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
60% 6yo+
15% 5yo
15% 3yo
Last ran
55% within 14d
45% 15-45d
Market
40% 4th+ in the market
30% 2nd favourite
20% favourite
LTO form
40% placed last time
35% unplaced last time
25% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 11 runners · stalls 1–12
123456789101112
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–12).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: J STREET is 1/5 on softer ground · KELDEO is 1/5 on softer ground · OVER SPICED is 1/7 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
J STREET MID 50.0% 100.5 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
KELDEO PROMINENT 50.4% 97.7 concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
OVER SPICED PROMINENT 50.1% 100.1 concedes ~2.3L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) FRONT 49.2% 100.0 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
BEAUZON FRONT 50.0% 98.6 a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
MAHARAJAS EXPRESS HELD-UP 48.6% 100.7 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
RIFFA SPIRIT (IRE) FRONT 50.6% 98.0 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
KNICKS (IRE) MID 50.2% 99.8 one-paced late — 6th of 11 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
TANJEN (IRE) PROMINENT 51.2% 97.2 concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
FAR TOO FIZZY PROMINENT 50.3% 99.9 a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
HARRY MOLE PROMINENT 50.4% 97.7 concedes ~2.6L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SAM'S XPRESS (IRE)FRONTtypically ~3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
BEAUZONFRONTtypically ~2.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
FAR TOO FIZZYPROMINENTtypically ~2.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
RIFFA SPIRIT (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
KELDEOPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.08s off the field’s best
TANJEN (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
OVER SPICEDPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
HARRY MOLEPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 J STREET MID DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 9 · OR 73 · Oliver Stammers / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET drifting 8.2 → 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 17 tries · beats market expectation (1.53)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.45% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 5f · rated 804thClass 6 · 5f · rated 681stClass 5 · 5f · rated 775thClass 5 · 5f · rated 683rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for J STREETbest 80needs 79–822025-09-14 · TFR 56 · 5f · Good · C52025-09-29 · TFR 21 · 4f213y · Std · C52025-10-25 · TFR 79 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-11-17 · TFR 55 · 5f · Slow · C52026-03-29 · TFR 68 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52026-05-21 · TFR 62 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-06-05 · TFR 68 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-18 · TFR 77 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-06-25 · TFR 68 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-18 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C514 Sep 2518 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1245 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1515/2316.5%0.892/653.1%0.49
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/5287.6%0.8210/1626.2%0.71
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)2/1910.5%1.210/80.0%0.0
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)7/3917.9%1.270/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Oliver Stammers · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Chester: A/E 0.9 (n9) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 11
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 11
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 11
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 11
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jul 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm51st6967True42.5 +0.29102.3+0.11
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm64th7061True41.6 -0.2498.0-0.19
18 Jun 26Southwell4f214yStd51st6565True42.7 +0.0799.6+0.00
5 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood55th6666Fast early42.5 +0.2598.7+0.00
21 May 26Southwell4f214yStd53rd6865—42.8 +0.11101.5+0.09
29 Mar 26Doncaster5fGd/Sft56th6971Slow early39.8 +0.17102.6+0.48
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.18par2f+0.20par3f+0.12par4f+0.11par5fledpar
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-07-18. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TANJEN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms
5 Jun 26 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 7th, 4.5L ahead · OR 66 v 65 · race median 66 (today 67)
KNICKS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 7.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
14 Sep 25 · 5f · Good — finished 7th vs 3rd, 5.75L behind · OR 74 v 69 · race median 72 (today 67)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-2.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HARRY MOLE (read through PHOENIX BEACH, INVINCIBLE CROWN, DANDY DINMONT, MACARONE) ≈ -5.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RIFFA SPIRIT (IRE) (read through FILLE UNIQUE, PIVOTAL TERMS, DRAGON SPIN) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) (read through GLORY HYDE, PHOENIX BEACH, HINT OF HUMOUR, ALONDRA) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEAUZON (read through AY GEE ELL, ANCIENT TIMES, TORFRIDA, MART) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 69)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)Proven over the trip (17 tries, beats market expectation at 1.53)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“reared stalls, never far away, led final ½f, asserted”
#2 KELDEO PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 70 · Harry Russell / Ollie Pears
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, a yard in form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 29 tries · beats market expectation (1.65)
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 97.73% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 23 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 794thClass 5 · 6f · rated 644thClass 5 · 5f · rated 574thClass 5 · 5f · rated 721stClass 5 · 6f · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for KELDEObest 81needs 79–822025-03-07 · TFR 73 · 5f · Slow · C52025-03-30 · TFR 66 · 5f · Good · C52025-04-14 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C52025-05-05 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-13 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-30 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C52025-06-17 · TFR 80 · 4f213y · Std · C52025-06-27 · TFR 72 · 5f · Std · C52025-07-26 · TFR 46 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-09 · TFR 70 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-22 · TFR 50 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52026-03-10 · TFR 74 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-04-08 · TFR 79 · 5f211y · Good · C52026-04-29 · TFR 72 · 5f · Good · C52026-05-18 · TFR 57 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-03 · TFR 64 · 6f · Good · C52026-06-16 · TFR 79 · 5f · Good · C57 Mar 2516 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ollie Pears · 333 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days14/1578.9%1.232/395.1%0.45
In Class 4-5 company11/1298.5%1.422/336.1%0.52
On turf16/1769.1%1.34/488.3%0.63
In fields of 12-155/529.6%1.851/175.9%0.65
Above their last winning mark3/486.2%0.611/137.7%0.67
Over 5-6f trips13/1449.0%1.163/417.3%0.7
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Harry Russell · last 14 days: 4/14 · at Chester: A/E 1.1 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n159)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 11
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 11
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 11
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 11
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Beverley5fGood52nd7067True39.6 +0.00100.0+0.05
3 Jun 26Ripon6fGood54th7170.5Fast early42.8 +0.1694.5—
18 May 26Carlisle5fGood54th7267.5True39.8 +0.2294.2+0.02
29 Apr 26Pontefract5fGood54th7369.5True40.4 -0.0697.9+0.13
8 Apr 26Catterick Bridge5f212yGood51st6961.5True42.0 +0.0199.9+0.00
10 Mar 26Southwell4f214yStd55th7063.5True42.2 -0.0399.8+0.18
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.03par2f+0.02slow3fledpar4fledpar5f+0.28par
Timed runs 2026-03-10 to 2026-06-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
KNICKS (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
30 Mar 25 · 5f · Good — finished 11th vs 8th, 1.15L behind · OR 71 v 71 · race median 66 (today 67) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
HARRY MOLE · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L ahead on today's terms · confirms
18 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 4th vs 5th, 0.3L ahead · OR 72 v 57 · race median 68 (today 67)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BEAUZON (read through AY GEE ELL, GENERAL ASSEMBLY, CLASSY CLARETS, SOUL SEEKER) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) (read through GLORY HYDE, INVINCIBLE CROWN, BETTER, ALBEGONE) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs J STREET (read through IMPRESSOR, MILITARY GIRL, THORNABY PEARL, OUR ABSENT FRIENDS) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAHARAJAS EXPRESS (read through AY GEE ELL, GENERAL ASSEMBLY, STASH THE CASH, NEVER DARK) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)Improving fast — last run rated 79, 12pts above his recent average of 66.7Proven over the trip (29 tries, beats market expectation at 1.65)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, shaken up under 2f out, led over 1f out, edged left entering final 1f, headed final 100 yds, no extra”
#3 OVER SPICED PROMINENT
DRAW 12 · OR 69 · Ray Dawson / Grace Harris
MARKET 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6.3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; concedes ~2.3L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
73.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
69 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 30 tries · beats market expectation (1.12)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.08% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 5f44y · rated 703rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 764thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 755thClass 5 · 5f · rated 665thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 69
Career sheet · last 18 months · 25 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OVER SPICEDneeds 79–82best 762025-02-16 · TFR 61 · 5f · Slow · C52025-03-08 · TFR 52 · 5f · Slow · C52025-03-28 · TFR 51 · 5f · Std/Slow · C52025-04-20 · TFR 36 · 5f11y · Firm · C52025-05-05 · TFR 60 · 5f22y · Good · C52025-05-29 · TFR 76 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-06 · TFR 62 · 5f · Good · C52025-06-23 · TFR 62 · 6f15y · Good · C52025-07-17 · TFR 68 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C52025-07-26 · TFR 71 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-09 · TFR 68 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-19 · TFR 73 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-25 · TFR 58 · 5f15y · Good · C62025-09-09 · TFR 73 · 5f · Firm · C52025-09-30 · TFR 63 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C42025-10-07 · TFR 74 · 5f59y · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-20 · TFR 75 · 5f11y · Soft · C52026-04-08 · TFR 70 · 5f9y · Good · C52026-05-03 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-04 · TFR 75 · 5f11y · Good · C52026-05-11 · TFR 69 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-26 · TFR 66 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-29 · TFR 75 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-12 · TFR 76 · 5f11y · Good · C42026-07-02 · TFR 70 · 5f33y · Gd/Frm · C516 Feb 252 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 459 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-154/705.7%1.12/258.0%1.4
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1308.5%0.832/277.4%0.66
In Class 4-5 company ✦7/1016.9%0.834/656.2%0.72
Over 5-6f trips ✦18/2198.2%0.856/807.5%0.79
Above their last winning mark ✦7/977.2%0.615/4211.9%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)0/20.0%0.01/1100.0%46.81
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 7/28 · at Chester: A/E 0.45 (n26) · with this yard: A/E 1.22 (n52)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 11
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 11
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 11
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 11
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Newbury5f34yGd/Frm53rd6964.5—43.5 -0.10101.1——
12 Jun 26Sandown Park5f10yGood43rd6976True38.2 -0.1698.8+0.05
29 May 26Chepstow5f16yGd/Frm54th7071True43.5 +0.00104.3+0.06
26 May 26Bath5f10yGd/Frm55th7065.5True41.5 +0.0198.1-0.06
11 May 26Windsor5f21yGd/Frm55th7266Fast early43.1 -0.6595.8+0.00
4 May 26Bath5f10yGood51st6772True40.2 -0.12102.3+0.07
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f—slow2f—fast3f—par4f—slow5f—slow
Timed runs 2026-05-04 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TANJEN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 Sep 25 · 5f · Firm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.5L ahead · OR 64 v 68 · race median 67 (today 67)
MAHARAJAS EXPRESS · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jul 25 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 0.3L ahead · OR 67 v 72 · race median 69 (today 67)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-3.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs KNICKS (IRE) (read through ALBEGONE, KOMORKIS, DANDY DINMONT, ACES WILD) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs J STREET (read through CHARLIE MASON, SMOOTH SILESIE, CAYMAN TAI, DANDY DINMONT) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEAUZON (read through ANTIPHON, SO SMART, CALL TIME, CAPTAIN BENTLEY) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) (read through ALBEGONE, CRESSIDA WILDES, MOE'S LEGACY, SO SMART) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (73.7)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“hampered start, rear, switched under 2f out, stayed on final 1f, never nearer”
#4 KNICKS (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 6 · OR 62 · Shane Gray / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 21% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 11pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; one-paced late — 6th of 11 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
62 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
1 win from 27 tries · below market expectation (0.28)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.77% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 67 vs 70 last run (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 694thClass 5 · 5f · rated 706thClass 6 · 5f · rated 653rdClass 6 · 5f · rated 705thClass 5 · 5f · rated 56
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for KNICKS (IRE)best 80needs 79–822025-03-30 · TFR 70 · 5f · Good · C52025-04-13 · TFR 78 · 5f · Good · C42025-04-19 · TFR 68 · 5f · Good · C42025-07-07 · TFR 68 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-07-26 · TFR 78 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-10 · TFR 39 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-25 · TFR 68 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-14 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C52025-09-21 · TFR 5 · 4f213y · Std · C52025-10-17 · TFR 71 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-28 · TFR 45 · 5f211y · Soft · C42026-04-18 · TFR 68 · 6f · Good · C52026-04-29 · TFR 67 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-22 · TFR 56 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-08 · TFR 70 · 5f · Good · C62026-06-16 · TFR 65 · 5f · Good · C62026-06-29 · TFR 70 · 5f · Good · C52026-07-11 · TFR 69 · 5f15y · Good · C530 Mar 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1245 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1515/2316.5%0.892/653.1%0.49
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/5287.6%0.8210/1626.2%0.71
Below their last winning mark4/488.3%0.952/345.9%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)2/1910.5%1.210/80.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Shane Gray · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Chester: A/E 0.64 (n15) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n105)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 11
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 11
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length11th of 11
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Chester5f15yGood52nd6270True42.1 +0.34100.9+0.50
29 Jun 26Pontefract5fGood54th6264—40.4 +0.61101.6+0.26—
16 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood66th6261True43.0 +0.1699.5+0.10
8 Jun 26Pontefract5fGood63rd6257True40.0 -0.23102.7+0.26
22 May 26Pontefract5fGd/Sft55th6470True41.5 +0.5295.5+0.01
29 Apr 26Musselburgh5fGood47th6673Fast early41.7 -0.1498.3+0.37
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.58slow2f+0.48par3f+0.45par4f+0.45par5f+0.28fast
Timed runs 2026-04-29 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TANJEN (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.7L behind on today's terms · reverses
21 Sep 25 · 4f214y · Std — finished 14th vs 12th, 5L behind · OR 69 v 75 · race median 70 (today 67)
KELDEO · 1 meeting · n/a
30 Mar 25 · 5f · Good — finished 8th vs 11th, 1.15L ahead · OR 71 v 71 · race median 66 (today 67) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
J STREET · 1 meeting≈ 7.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
14 Sep 25 · 5f · Good — finished 3rd vs 7th, 5.75L ahead · OR 69 v 74 · race median 72 (today 67)
BEAUZON · 1 meeting≈ 7.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 5f15y · Good — finished 2nd vs 11th, 9.25L ahead · OR 62 v 72 · race median 70 (today 67)
MAHARAJAS EXPRESS · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L ahead on today's terms · confirms
11 Jul 26 · 5f15y · Good — finished 2nd vs 6th, 1.9L ahead · OR 62 v 67 · race median 70 (today 67)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+3.5L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RIFFA SPIRIT (IRE) (read through SOCA STAR, ARLO'S GIRL) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OVER SPICED (read through ALBEGONE, KOMORKIS, DANDY DINMONT, ACES WILD) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) (read through CANARIA QUEEN, BEAUMADIER, ALBEGONE, INVINCIBLE CROWN) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HARRY MOLE (read through BLUE LAKOTA, INVINCIBLE CROWN, DANDY DINMONT, HURT YOU NEVER) ≈ +0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
11lb below his last winning mark (62 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 5 todayStable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 4 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“hampered start, mid-field, ridden 2f out, plugged on”
#5 MAHARAJAS EXPRESS HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 64 · David Probert / Ian Williams
MARKET drifting 6.4 → 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 13pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 33 tries · below market expectation (0.79)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.73% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 67 vs 70 last run (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 679thClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 487thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 554thClass 5 · 6f · rated 706thClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 31
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MAHARAJAS EXPRESSneeds 79–82best 792025-02-11 · TFR 66 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-02-24 · TFR 74 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-02-27 · TFR 75 · 5f · Slow · C52025-03-15 · TFR 76 · 5f22y · Std/Slow · C52025-04-18 · TFR 73 · 5f · Slow · C52025-05-10 · TFR 52 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-19 · TFR 73 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-26 · TFR 77 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-11 · TFR 72 · 5f110y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-12 · TFR 77 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-26 · TFR 75 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-20 · TFR 31 · 5f15y · Heavy · C32026-04-27 · TFR 70 · 6f · Slow · C52026-05-18 · TFR 55 · 5f22y · Good · C52026-07-06 · TFR 48 · 6f20y · Std · C52026-07-11 · TFR 67 · 5f15y · Good · C511 Feb 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 8/41 · at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n70) · with this yard: A/E 1.34 (n54)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 11
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 11
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 11
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 11
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Chester5f15yGood56th6770True41.7 -0.08102.2+0.20
6 Jul 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd59th6767True40.5 -0.1898.2+0.24
18 May 26Windsor5f21yGood57th6972.5True42.4 -0.11102.4+0.01
27 Apr 26Lingfield6fSlow54th7068True40.9 +0.00106.9+0.06
20 Sep 25Chester5f15yHeavy36th7275Fast early39.6 -0.0194.8+0.24
26 Jul 25Chester5f15yGd/Frm53rd7269True42.1 +0.0899.9+0.14
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.73very slow2f+0.77par3f+0.91par4f+0.89par5f+0.55fast
Timed runs 2025-07-26 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BEAUZON · 1 meeting≈ 6.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 5f15y · Good — finished 6th vs 11th, 7.35L ahead · OR 67 v 72 · race median 70 (today 67)
KNICKS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses
11 Jul 26 · 5f15y · Good — finished 6th vs 2nd, 1.9L behind · OR 67 v 62 · race median 70 (today 67)
OVER SPICED · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jul 25 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 0.3L behind · OR 72 v 67 · race median 69 (today 67)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+2.9L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs TANJEN (IRE) (read through SANDSCREENDELIVERD, FAUSTUS, DARK KESTREL, SON OF WIND) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs J STREET (read through AY GEE ELL, VINCE L'AMOUR, SARAFINA MSHAIRI, SMOOTH SILESIE) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) (read through BEAUMADIER, LEVEL UP, BALON D'OR, SO SMART) ≈ -0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs KELDEO (read through AY GEE ELL, GENERAL ASSEMBLY, STASH THE CASH, NEVER DARK) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (64 today vs 68)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 67, 10pts above his recent average of 56.7Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)
LTO comment
“held up, headway over 1f out, not sustain effort”
#6 TANJEN (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 62 · S. B. Kirrane / Tim Easterby
MARKET 11.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 15pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
62 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.25)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 97.23% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (NEWCASTLE 13th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 5 · 5f · rated 657thClass 5 · 5f · rated 489thClass 5 · 5f · rated 505thClass 5 · 5f · rated 6612thClass 5 · 5f · rated 37
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TANJEN (IRE)best 81needs 79–822025-04-25 · TFR 53 · 6f · Good · C52025-05-18 · TFR 50 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-30 · TFR 52 · 5f211y · Good · C52025-06-24 · TFR 46 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-21 · TFR 61 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-01 · TFR 75 · 5f · Std · C62025-08-09 · TFR 64 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-25 · TFR 61 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-02 · TFR 81 · 4f213y · Std · C62025-09-09 · TFR 75 · 5f · Firm · C52025-09-21 · TFR 37 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-05-02 · TFR 66 · 5f · Good · C52026-05-12 · TFR 50 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-05 · TFR 48 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-26 · TFR 65 · 5f · Slow · C525 Apr 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)7/6910.1%1.260/160.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
S. B. Kirrane · last 14 days: 2/20 · at Chester: A/E 1.27 (n45) · with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n644)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 11
-0.26 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 11
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 11
97.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 11
7.52 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle5fSlow57th7167.5Fast early42.6 -0.6298.6—
5 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood57th6566Fast early42.1 -0.0796.6-0.12
12 May 26Beverley5fGd/Frm59th6765.5Fast early40.0 -0.1595.4+0.14
2 May 26Goodwood5fGood55th6971True44.1 -0.7197.6+0.02
21 Sep 25Southwell4f214yStd512th7570.5True42.2 +0.0596.0+0.15
9 Sep 25Leicester5fFirm52nd6867True43.4 -0.0799.3+0.06
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.04par2f+0.12par3f+0.07par4f+0.34slow5f+0.80slow
Timed runs 2025-09-09 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
KNICKS (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.7L ahead on today's terms · confirms
21 Sep 25 · 4f214y · Std — finished 12th vs 14th, 5L ahead · OR 75 v 69 · race median 70 (today 67)
OVER SPICED · 1 meeting≈ 3.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
9 Sep 25 · 5f · Firm — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.5L behind · OR 68 v 64 · race median 67 (today 67)
J STREET · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses
5 Jun 26 · 5f · Good — finished 7th vs 5th, 4.5L behind · OR 65 v 66 · race median 66 (today 67)
Read through a common rival
vs RIFFA SPIRIT (IRE) (read through FILLE UNIQUE, DRAGON SPIN) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEAUZON (read through TIGER TULIP, DIGITAL, SPENDMORE LANE) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) (read through CANARIA QUEEN, GLORY HYDE, PHOENIX BEACH, INVINCIBLE CROWN) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAHARAJAS EXPRESS (read through SANDSCREENDELIVERD, FAUSTUS, DARK KESTREL, SON OF WIND) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (62 today vs 65)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 65, 10pts above his recent average of 54.3Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.25)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed over 1f out, weakened final 1f”
#7 FAR TOO FIZZY PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 63 · Laura Pearson / David Loughnane
MARKET drifting 8.2 → 11.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 15pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · in line with the market (1.01)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.94% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 27 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 655thClass 5 · 5f · rated 503rdClass 5 · 6f · rated 727thClass 5 · 5f · rated 221stClass 6 · 6f · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FAR TOO FIZZYneeds 79–82best 722025-06-11 · TFR 43 · 5f · Good · C52025-09-13 · TFR 41 · 7f · Good · C22025-10-30 · TFR 60 · 6f · Std · C62025-11-22 · TFR 50 · 6f20y · Slow · C62025-12-11 · TFR 58 · 6f · Slow · C62025-12-18 · TFR 2 · 7f · Slow · C52025-12-30 · TFR 60 · 6f20y · Slow · C62026-01-12 · TFR 61 · 6f20y · Std · C62026-01-21 · TFR 72 · 6f · Slow · C62026-02-12 · TFR 22 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-28 · TFR 72 · 6f · Std · C52026-03-27 · TFR 50 · 5f · Std · C52026-07-17 · TFR 65 · 6f20y · Std · C511 Jun 2517 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Loughnane · 753 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/1735.2%0.624/2218.2%1.64
At Chester2/345.9%0.863/2412.5%1.56
On turf22/2618.4%0.9112/9512.6%1.23
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦12/11410.5%1.067/4615.2%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-157/1136.2%0.991/293.4%0.46
In Class 4-5 company ✦33/3708.9%0.9810/1158.7%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Laura Pearson · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Chester: A/E 1.71 (n17) · with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n191)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 11
+0.50 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 11
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 11
99.9%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 11
7.32 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jul 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd54th6469.5True41.5 +1.1296.5+0.00
27 Mar 26Lingfield5fStd55th6563Fast early43.8 +0.3099.8+0.01
28 Feb 26Lingfield6fStd53rd6565True41.3 +0.00100.3+0.27
12 Feb 26Lingfield5fStd57th6773Fast early42.6 -0.2297.6+0.13
21 Jan 26Lingfield6fSlow61st5757Slow early41.6 +1.38109.1+0.00
12 Jan 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd63rd5758Fast early41.0 +0.4096.4+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3fledfast4fledpar5f+0.15slow6f+0.62very slow
Timed runs 2026-01-12 to 2026-07-17. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
6lb above his last winning mark (63 today vs 57)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.71x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“soon led, headed over 1f out, no extra final 1f”
#8 HARRY MOLE PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 57 · George Wood / Steph Hollinshead
MARKET backed 8.4 → 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 16pts off the top, backed since the morning; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
64.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 97.69% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 30 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 16lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 67 vs 51 last run (BATH · 13 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 642ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 645thClass 5 · 5f · rated 4110thClass 5 · 6f · rated 474thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 57
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HARRY MOLEneeds 79–82best 642025-09-29 · TFR 47 · 6f15y · Std · C52025-10-18 · TFR 57 · 5f211y · Gd/Sft · C52025-11-25 · TFR 57 · 5f22y · Slow · C52026-04-25 · TFR 47 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-18 · TFR 41 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-05 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good · C62026-06-13 · TFR 64 · 5f11y · Good · C629 Sep 2513 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Steph Hollinshead · 277 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)6/827.3%0.990/100.0%0.0
In fields of 12-153/515.9%0.790/180.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company11/10910.1%1.311/482.1%0.39
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)1/911.1%1.40/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 64 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
George Wood · last 14 days: 2/33 · at Chester: A/E 1.25 (n58) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 11
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 11
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 11
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 11
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Bath5f10yGood62nd5651True40.6 -0.0198.2-0.02
5 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood62nd5458Fast early43.0 +0.6298.9+0.10
18 May 26Carlisle5fGood55th5767.5True39.4 -0.2495.6+0.00
25 Apr 26Haydock Park6fGd/Frm510th6065Fast early41.4 +0.0090.3+0.00
25 Nov 25Wolverhampton5f21ySlow54th——True40.8 -0.08102.0+0.01
29 Sep 25Southwell6f16yStd56th——True39.6 -0.14101.1+0.30
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.11fast2f+0.15par3f+0.21par4fledslow5f+0.24slow
Timed runs 2025-09-29 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
KELDEO · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L behind on today's terms · reverses
18 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 4th, 0.3L behind · OR 57 v 72 · race median 68 (today 67)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs J STREET (read through PHOENIX BEACH, INVINCIBLE CROWN, DANDY DINMONT, MACARONE) ≈ +5.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) (read through PHOENIX BEACH, SON OF ASTAR, INVINCIBLE CROWN) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEAUZON (read through SON OF ASTAR, SYMBOL OF HOPE, CALL TIME, MACARONE) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TANJEN (IRE) (read through DANDY DINMONT, WITHOUT FLAW, FIERCE, HARB) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, challenged, carried right over 1f out, every chance final 1f, no match for winner”
#9 BEAUZON FRONT
DRAW 4 · OR 67 · Ryan Kavanagh / Ian Williams
MARKET drifting 29 → 75 · the market rates it a 1% chance
60.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 19.3pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
60.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
12 wins from 36 tries · beats market expectation (1.86)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 98.63% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 67 vs 70 last run (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
11thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 416thClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 631stClass 6 · 6f22y · rated 781stClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 751stClass 6 · 6f22y · rated 67
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BEAUZONneeds 79–82best 792025-03-17 · TFR 60 · 6f20y · Slow · C62025-04-28 · TFR 35 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-10 · TFR 67 · 6f · Firm · C62025-05-24 · TFR 56 · 5f211y · Good · C52025-06-03 · TFR 44 · 6f20y · Slow · C52025-09-24 · TFR 24 · 6f · Slow · C62025-10-04 · TFR 43 · 7f35y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-11-03 · TFR 57 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-11-08 · TFR 34 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-11-22 · TFR 43 · 5f22y · Slow · C62026-01-06 · TFR 52 · 6f20y · Slow · C62026-01-12 · TFR 60 · 6f · Std · C62026-01-23 · TFR 61 · 6f20y · Std · C62026-02-09 · TFR 70 · 6f20y · Std · C62026-02-10 · TFR 71 · 6f · Slow · C62026-02-16 · TFR 67 · 6f20y · Std · C62026-03-03 · TFR 75 · 6f20y · Std · C52026-03-13 · TFR 78 · 6f20y · Std · C62026-03-16 · TFR 63 · 6f20y · Std · C52026-07-11 · TFR 41 · 5f15y · Good · C517 Mar 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 4/17 · at Chester: A/E 0.92 (n14) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n219)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 11
-0.07s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed7th of 11
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 11
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Chester5f15yGood511th7270True41.7 -0.0797.6+0.00
16 Mar 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd56th7465True40.3 +0.1998.9+0.01
13 Mar 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd61st6962True40.8 -0.03100.0-0.23
3 Mar 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd51st6566True41.7 +1.1599.5-0.08
16 Feb 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd61st6058.5True41.0 +0.1898.4+0.00
9 Feb 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd61st5247True41.7 +0.1997.5-0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.33slow2f+0.39par3f+0.53par4f+1.03slow5f+1.75very slow
Timed runs 2026-02-09 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
MAHARAJAS EXPRESS · 1 meeting≈ 6.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 5f15y · Good — finished 11th vs 6th, 7.35L behind · OR 72 v 67 · race median 70 (today 67)
KNICKS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 7.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 5f15y · Good — finished 11th vs 2nd, 9.25L behind · OR 72 v 62 · race median 70 (today 67)
SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
3 Nov 25 · 5f21y · Slow — finished 5th vs 2nd, 1.55L behind · OR 55 v 60 · race median 49 (today 67)
Read through a common rival
vs KELDEO (read through AY GEE ELL, GENERAL ASSEMBLY, CLASSY CLARETS, SOUL SEEKER) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TANJEN (IRE) (read through TIGER TULIP, DIGITAL, SPENDMORE LANE) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs J STREET (read through AY GEE ELL, ANCIENT TIMES, TORFRIDA, MART) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HARRY MOLE (read through SON OF ASTAR, SYMBOL OF HOPE, CALL TIME, MACARONE) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (67 today vs 69)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (36 tries, beats market expectation at 1.86)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“soon led, headed over 1f out, weakened”
#10 SAM'S XPRESS (IRE) FRONT
DRAW 11 · OR 68 · Dylan Hogan / Julia & Shelley Birkett
MARKET drifting 38 → 85 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
57.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 22.3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
57.7 · ranked #10 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 30 tries · beats market expectation (1.32)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 100.05% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 18 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 67 vs 72 last run (LINGFIELD PARK · 27 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 5 · 5f · rated 469thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 586thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 693rdClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 793rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 80
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SAM'S XPRESS (IRE)best 80needs 79–822025-01-27 · TFR 41 · 5f · Slow · C52025-02-14 · TFR 39 · 5f · Slow2025-03-14 · TFR 50 · 5f · Slow · C52025-04-05 · TFR 29 · 5f · Good · C62025-05-20 · TFR 34 · 5f · Good · C62025-07-29 · TFR 49 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-06 · TFR 50 · 5f42y · Firm · C62025-08-30 · TFR 61 · 5f · Slow · C62025-10-27 · TFR 72 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-11-03 · TFR 70 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-11-24 · TFR 61 · 5f22y · Std/Slow · C62025-12-22 · TFR 80 · 5f · Std/Slow · C62025-12-30 · TFR 79 · 5f22y · Slow · C62026-01-24 · TFR 80 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-13 · TFR 79 · 5f22y · Std · C42026-03-09 · TFR 69 · 5f22y · Std · C42026-03-20 · TFR 58 · 5f22y · Std · C52026-06-27 · TFR 46 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C527 Jan 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Julia & Shelley Birkett · 230 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)3/427.1%0.72/728.6%2.69
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/9410.6%1.038/4517.8%1.6
On turf7/759.3%0.885/4112.2%1.53
In fields of 12-151/293.4%0.511/911.1%1.45
Above their last winning mark4/636.3%0.524/2714.8%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips7/4216.7%1.271/175.9%0.51
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Dylan Hogan · last 14 days: 3/10 · at Chester: A/E 1.21 (n7) · with this yard: A/E 1.28 (n127)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 11
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11
-0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed4th of 11
100.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 11
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Lingfield4f217yGd/Frm55th7072Slow early42.9 -0.0499.8+0.00
20 Mar 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd59th7370Fast early43.2 +0.7997.2+0.00
9 Mar 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd46th7377True40.8 +0.05100.9+0.00
13 Feb 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd43rd7373True40.5 +0.02100.3-0.03
24 Jan 26Lingfield5fStd53rd7271.5True42.0 -0.01100.9-0.04
30 Dec 25Wolverhampton5f21ySlow61st6761True41.8 +0.02101.2+0.06
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledslow2fledslow3fledpar4f+0.35par5f+1.36very slow
Timed runs 2025-12-30 to 2026-06-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BEAUZON · 1 meeting≈ 2.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
3 Nov 25 · 5f21y · Slow — finished 2nd vs 5th, 1.55L ahead · OR 60 v 55 · race median 49 (today 67)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+2.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HARRY MOLE (read through PHOENIX BEACH, SON OF ASTAR, INVINCIBLE CROWN) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs J STREET (read through GLORY HYDE, PHOENIX BEACH, HINT OF HUMOUR, ALONDRA) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs KNICKS (IRE) (read through CANARIA QUEEN, BEAUMADIER, ALBEGONE, INVINCIBLE CROWN) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TANJEN (IRE) (read through CANARIA QUEEN, GLORY HYDE, PHOENIX BEACH, INVINCIBLE CROWN) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.32)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“soon led, headed approaching final 1f, weakened”
#11 RIFFA SPIRIT (IRE) FRONT
DRAW 10 · OR 68 · Zak Wheatley / Declan Carroll
MARKET drifting 28 → 100 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
46.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 33.3pts off the top, a yard in form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
46.7 · ranked #11 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
68 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 98.05% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 7 places on the course scale (THIRSK 12th → CHESTER 5th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 5 · 5f · rated 308thClass 5 · 5f · rated 353rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 754thClass 4 · 5f · rated 728thClass 5 · 6f · rated 68
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RIFFA SPIRIT (IRE)needs 79–82best 752025-07-26 · TFR 43 · 7f13y · Slow · C42025-08-14 · TFR 68 · 6f · Slow · C52025-09-23 · TFR 68 · 6f · Std · C52026-04-11 · TFR 72 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-04-29 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C52026-05-25 · TFR 35 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-16 · TFR 30 · 5f · Good · C526 Jul 2516 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Declan Carroll · 511 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)18/17310.4%1.123/1618.8%2.28
Coming back after 15 to 45 days14/1967.1%0.89/5217.3%1.98
In Class 4-5 company14/2116.6%0.8310/7114.1%1.8
Over 5-6f trips19/2188.7%0.918/6113.1%1.41
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-153/973.1%0.450/170.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chester (small sample)3/2412.5%1.531/520.0%1.39
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Zak Wheatley · last 14 days: 2/10 · at Chester: A/E 1.67 (n45) · with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n462)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 11
-0.16 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11
-0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 6
Finish · closing speed8th of 11
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 11
7.49 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood57th6969Fast early42.6 +0.4594.8+0.23
25 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm58th7064.5Fast early44.1 -0.2795.1+0.00
29 Apr 26Musselburgh5fGood53rd7060True41.4 -0.1998.4-0.32
11 Apr 26Southwell4f214yStd44th7178True42.3 -0.0498.9+0.02
23 Sep 25Lingfield6fStd58th7270True39.6 -0.28102.3+0.04
14 Aug 25Chelmsford City6fSlow51st——Fast early40.5 -0.6598.7+0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledfast3fledslow4f+0.80very slow5f+2.08very slow
Timed runs 2025-08-14 to 2026-06-16. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs KNICKS (IRE) (read through SOCA STAR, ARLO'S GIRL) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TANJEN (IRE) (read through FILLE UNIQUE, DRAGON SPIN) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs J STREET (read through FILLE UNIQUE, PIVOTAL TERMS, DRAGON SPIN) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.67x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“soon led, headed 2f out, weakened”