FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Newcastle · 13:35
Class 6 · 1m2f42y · Standard to Slow · FIELD MEDIAN OR 59
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 13 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:50 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Standard to Slow
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 65825.9%51.7%19%46.6%
middle (9-12f)4141.5%70.7%39%70.7%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
TOKEN LOVE (FR) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (89% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (61% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, GOLSPIE (IRE) leads on 72, 1pts clear of NATURALIA — one of the two strongest finishers here. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls. The shape danger is RUBELLITE (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes GOLSPIE (IRE) the 15% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 13
GOLSPIE (IRE)
OR 63 · C. Horgan / Patrick Morris
MARKET backed 7.8 → 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (72.0)A course winner (1 from 18 here)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 9
NATURALIA
OR 57 · Shay Farmer / Donald Whillans
MARKET 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−6lb below his last winning mark (57 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (71.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 11
IDYLLIC
OR 60 · Paula Muir / Wilf Storey
MARKET drifting 8 → 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−3lb below his last winning mark (60 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (69.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1GOLSPIE (IRE)net +10figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields − habitually slow away
2BEARWITHnet +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on recency
3GEMINI MAN (IRE)net +9race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup − steps into much stronger company by the marks
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
GOLSPIE (IRE) carries habitually slow from the stalls. BEARWITH is the one to beat it — an edge GOLSPIE (IRE) lacks: runs the dominant winning style here.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
BEARWITH  FIGURE #4
drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
GEMINI MAN (IRE)  FIGURE #9
Iain Jardine's runners in Class 6-7 company win 19.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Iain Jardine's runners at Newcastle win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 28% · front-runners 25% (86 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Stiff, uphill finish — a true stamina test. Winners’ energy signature: 47.54% spent early (band 46.71–48.56%, 140 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.51s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
28 similar races at NEWCASTLE, 9.7-10.7f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (89% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (61% from the first three favourites). 4% won last time out, 32% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
50% 4yo
21% 3yo
18% 5yo
Last ran
68% 15-45d
21% within 14d
7% 46-90d
Market
39% 4th+ in the market
29% favourite
21% 2nd favourite
LTO form
61% unplaced last time
32% placed last time
4% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 13 runners · stalls 1–13
12345678910111213
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–13).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
BEARWITH MID 50.4% 102.3 solid late gains (6th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
RUBELLITE (IRE) MID 47.5% 108.3 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GOLSPIE (IRE) HELD-UP 47.9% 106.6 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CAVALRY CALL (IRE) MID 50.0% 100.6 solid late gains (8th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
EAGLES DREAM (IRE) HELD-UP 48.4% 100.4 one-paced late — 9th of 13 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
IDYLLIC MID 49.8% 103.2 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
SWEET KISS HELD-UP 50.0% 101.1 solid late gains (7th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
TOKEN LOVE (FR) PROMINENT 49.6% 98.9 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
JEWEL MAKER (IRE) HELD-UP 50.5% 100.2 one-paced late — 10th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
NATURALIA MID 49.8% 99.5 one-paced late — 12th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MAPLE MID 48.0% 103.1 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GEMINI MAN (IRE) HELD-UP 47.1% 100.1 one-paced late — 11th of 13 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
BROADSTONE HELD-UP 49.5% 103.3 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
TOKEN LOVE (FR)PROMINENTtypically ~2.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
TOKEN LOVE (FR) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 GOLSPIE (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 13 · OR 63 · C. Horgan / Patrick Morris
MARKET backed 7.8 → 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 30 tries · below market expectation (0.61)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 106.64% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 64 last run (NEWCASTLE · 27 Jun 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 1m4f88y · rated 724thClass 4 · 1m4f66y · rated 694thClass 6 · 1m3f · rated 723rdClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 602ndClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 69
Career sheet · last 18 months · 30 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GOLSPIE (IRE)best 84needs 70–712025-02-10 · TFR 63 · 1m1f103y · Std/Slow · C52025-03-12 · TFR 65 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C52025-03-22 · TFR 67 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-05-11 · TFR 65 · 1m2f42y · Std · C42025-05-27 · TFR 60 · 1m1f103y · Std · C42025-06-09 · TFR 69 · 1m2f · Good · C62025-06-15 · TFR 73 · 1m3f15y · Gd/Sft · C42025-08-21 · TFR 70 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C42025-09-08 · TFR 72 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52025-09-26 · TFR 63 · 1m2f42y · Good · C52025-10-14 · TFR 72 · 1m2f42y · Std · C52025-10-27 · TFR 64 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52025-11-22 · TFR 65 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52025-11-26 · TFR 63 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C62025-12-13 · TFR 60 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52025-12-20 · TFR 71 · 1m2f42y · Std/Slow · C52025-12-29 · TFR 69 · 1m4f99y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-01-03 · TFR 72 · 1m3f22y · Std · C52026-01-20 · TFR 67 · 1m2f42y · Std · C52026-01-26 · TFR 64 · 1m1f103y · Std · C52026-02-14 · TFR 69 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52026-02-24 · TFR 51 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C42026-03-06 · TFR 70 · 1m4f99y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-03-12 · TFR 69 · 1m4f99y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-03-19 · TFR 64 · 1m2f42y · Std · C62026-03-28 · TFR 69 · 1m2f44y · Gd/Sft · C52026-05-22 · TFR 60 · 1m2f42y · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-10 · TFR 72 · 1m3f · Slow · C62026-06-13 · TFR 69 · 1m4f64y · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2026-06-27 · TFR 72 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C5 · off-trip10 Feb 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Patrick Morris · 466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips3/515.9%0.760/120.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/731.4%0.20/120.0%0.0
In fields of 12-152/504.0%0.760/180.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark ✦7/897.9%0.773/624.8%0.39
At Newcastle11/10510.5%1.092/444.5%0.41
Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/1203.3%0.383/565.4%0.62
On the all-weather ✦19/2388.0%0.879/1197.6%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
C. Horgan · last 14 days: 1/8 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.61 (n37) · with this yard: A/E 0.59 (n17)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 13
+0.33 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 13
+0.50s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 13
106.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 13
7.04 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Newcastle1m4f98ySlow53rd6364True38.7 -0.02105.6+0.33
13 Jun 26Chester1m4f63yGd/Sft44th6473True36.9 +0.06108.0+0.59
10 Jun 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow64th6463True37.1 -0.02104.9+0.24
22 May 26Haydock Park1m2f42yGd/Sft53rd6565True37.7 +0.87100.3+0.80
28 Mar 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Sft52nd6463.5True37.5 +0.69106.4+0.73
19 Mar 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd64th6563Slow early39.8 +0.39114.7+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.35par2f+1.36fast3f+1.25par4f+1.44slow5f+1.47par6f+1.60par7f+1.31slow1m+1.19slow1m 1f+0.62par1m 2f+0.32par1m 3f+0.41slow1m 4f+0.62fast
Timed runs 2026-03-19 to 2026-06-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BEARWITH · 6 meetings≈ 1.3L behind on today's terms · confirms
28 Mar 26 · 1m2f43y · Gd/Sft — finished 2nd vs 11th, 6.1L ahead · OR 64 v 68 · race median 64 (today 59)
JEWEL MAKER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Dec 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 7th vs 6th, 0.2L behind · OR 63 v 67 · race median 70 (today 59)
NATURALIA · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L behind on today's terms · line-ball
27 Oct 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 7th vs 9th, 1.05L ahead · OR 67 v 63 · race median 64 (today 59)
SWEET KISS · 1 meeting≈ 3.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Nov 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 5th vs 7th, 5.25L ahead · OR 65 v 64 · race median 60 (today 59)
IDYLLIC · 1 meeting · n/a
15 Jun 25 · 1m3f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 2nd vs 12th, 14.25L ahead · OR 67 v 63 · race median 70 (today 59) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
CAVALRY CALL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
20 Jan 26 · 1m2f42y · Std — finished 5th vs 8th, 8.75L ahead · OR 68 v 68 · race median 68 (today 59)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 5 rival(s) met (+1.1L adj, 10 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EAGLES DREAM (IRE) (read through STARLINER, WHISKEY PETE, IZZARI, KRISSY) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BROADSTONE (read through BUSBY, THREE YORKSHIREMEN, KING CHAOS, MR NUGGET) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RUBELLITE (IRE) (read through PRINCE ACHILLE, FALCON NINE, ALPINE SIERRA, KING CHAOS) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GEMINI MAN (IRE) (read through DARING LEADER, HASHTAGNOTIONS) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (72.0)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 18 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“missed break, off pace, still off pace 2f out, headway approaching final 1f, ran on, nearest finish”
#2 NATURALIA MID
DRAW 9 · OR 57 · Shay Farmer / Donald Whillans
MARKET 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
57 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
1 win from 16 tries · below market expectation (0.77)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.52% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 712ndClass 6 · 1m4f110y · rated 712ndClass 5 · 1m3f44y · rated 712ndClass 6 · 1m3f44y · rated 686thClass 4 · 1m1f44y · rated 66
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for NATURALIAbest 71needs 70–712025-05-04 · TFR 55 · 1m3f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-27 · TFR 69 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-18 · TFR 70 · 1m3f15y · Good · C62025-07-07 · TFR 70 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C62025-07-14 · TFR 70 · 1m5f26y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-08-08 · TFR 69 · 1m4f103y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-09-03 · TFR 40 · 1m5f15y · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2025-09-18 · TFR 67 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C42025-09-21 · TFR 67 · 1m1f35y · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-04 · TFR 48 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C42025-10-27 · TFR 58 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52025-11-06 · TFR 50 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52026-04-08 · TFR 67 · 1m4f13y · Good · C62026-04-26 · TFR 61 · 1m209y · Good · C52026-05-15 · TFR 66 · 1m1f35y · Good · C42026-05-29 · TFR 68 · 1m3f40y · Good · C62026-06-09 · TFR 71 · 1m3f40y · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-22 · TFR 71 · 1m4f103y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2026-07-06 · TFR 71 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C64 May 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Donald Whillans · 94 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips1/119.1%1.570/40.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days3/329.4%1.130/80.0%0.0
In fields of 12-150/180.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company8/4816.7%1.731/205.0%0.56
Below their last winning mark2/1118.2%1.931/128.3%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)1/175.9%0.590/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Shay Farmer · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.29 (n45) · with this yard: A/E 0.53 (n20)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 13
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 13
+0.43s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed12th of 13
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length11th of 13
6.85 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ayr1m2fGd/Frm64th6259.5—39.6 -0.04—+0.07—
22 Jun 26Musselburgh1m4f104yGd/Frm62nd6258.5True38.9 +1.00106.0+1.05
9 Jun 26Carlisle1m3f39yGd/Sft52nd6163.5—38.6 -0.1496.9+0.53—
29 May 26Carlisle1m3f39yGood62nd6061Fast early39.0 +0.0195.7+0.13
15 May 26Hamilton Park1m1f35yGood46th6274True40.0 +0.09—+0.33
26 Apr 26Musselburgh1m208yGood59th6365.5True37.9 -0.09—+0.46
Timed runs 2026-04-26 to 2026-07-06. · 3 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SWEET KISS · 3 meetings≈ 8.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 6th, 1.75L ahead · OR 62 v 60 · race median 60 (today 59)
GOLSPIE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
27 Oct 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 9th vs 7th, 1.05L behind · OR 63 v 67 · race median 64 (today 59)
GEMINI MAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
22 Jun 26 · 1m4f104y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.3L behind · OR 62 v 52 · race median 58 (today 59)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 3 rival(s) met (-1.3L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs JEWEL MAKER (IRE) (read through WITHOUT COMPROMISE, MOLINARI, KING CHAOS, NATZOR) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IDYLLIC (read through NINTH LIFE, CASCADE HALL, GLASSES UP, KING CHAOS) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAPLE (read through ROYAL BLAZE, ALPINE SIERRA, MUHIB, BRUNELLO BREEZE) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAVALRY CALL (IRE) (read through WITHOUT COMPROMISE, JEZ BOMB, KING CHAOS, LIGHTENING COMPANY) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (57 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (71.0)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, shaken up over 2f out, forced to switch over 1f out, nearest finish”
#3 IDYLLIC MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 11 · OR 60 · Paula Muir / Wilf Storey
MARKET drifting 8 → 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (2.01)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.2s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.19% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 16lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 75 last run (AYR · 5 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 695thClass 5 · 1m3f198y · rated 236thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 636thClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 527thClass 4 · 1m4f88y · rated 5
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for IDYLLICneeds 70–71best 692025-05-11 · TFR 55 · 1m2f42y · Std · C42025-05-30 · TFR 69 · 1m3f40y · Gd/Sft · C62025-06-15 · TFR 44 · 1m3f15y · Gd/Sft · C42025-07-05 · TFR 54 · 1m3f40y · Heavy · C52025-07-25 · TFR 69 · 1m4f9y · Good · C52025-08-09 · TFR 69 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-11 · TFR 5 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C4 · off-trip2025-10-09 · TFR 52 · 1m2f · Heavy · C52026-04-18 · TFR 63 · 1m4f9y · Good · C42026-06-14 · TFR 23 · 1m3f198y · Gd/Sft · C52026-07-05 · TFR 69 · 1m2f · Good · C411 May 255 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Wilf Storey · 68 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company6/2821.4%3.220/130.0%0.0
At Newcastle0/90.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips2/1315.4%2.070/80.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days6/2623.1%3.470/70.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark0/20.0%0.00/90.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/185.6%0.760/50.0%0.0
On the all-weather0/100.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 12-15 (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Paula Muir · last 14 days: 0/1 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.7 (n49) · with this yard: A/E 2.24 (n62)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 13
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 13
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 13
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length10th of 13
6.92 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr1m2fGood44th6175True40.8 +0.86110.1+0.52
14 Jun 26Doncaster1m3f197yGd/Sft55th6369True39.1 +0.71103.7+0.00
18 Apr 26Thirsk1m4fGood46th6474True38.2 -0.51109.0+0.00
9 Oct 25Ayr1m2fHeavy56th6567True35.7 -0.02102.9+0.78
11 Sep 25Newcastle1m4f98ySlow47th6673Fast early38.4 +0.0090.0+0.00
9 Aug 25Ayr1m2fGd/Frm54th6668.5True38.3 -0.52103.4+0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.89slow2f+1.05slow3f+0.94par4f+0.93par5f+0.63par6f+0.82par7f+0.66fast1m+0.28fast1m 1f+0.26fast1m 2f+0.30fast
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-07-05. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
GOLSPIE (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
15 Jun 25 · 1m3f15y · Gd/Sft — finished 12th vs 2nd, 14.25L behind · OR 63 v 67 · race median 70 (today 59) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs EAGLES DREAM (IRE) (read through IZZARI, STARLINER) ≈ +5.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs NATURALIA (read through NINTH LIFE, CASCADE HALL, GLASSES UP, KING CHAOS) ≈ -4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SWEET KISS (read through NINTH LIFE, STAR CAST, KING CHAOS, TEE AITCH AYE) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TOKEN LOVE (FR) (read through MASEKELA, DANDY'S ANGEL) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (60 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (69.0)Improving fast — last run rated 69, 17pts above his recent average of 51.7Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 2.01)Lost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“raced clear, closed down under 4f out, headed around 3f out, weakened”
#4 BEARWITH MID
DRAW 6 · OR 65 · T. Kiely-Marshall / Harriet Bethell
MARKET backed 7.6 → 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
68 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 4pts off the top, prominent in the betting; solid late gains (6th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
68 · ranked #4 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 29 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.28% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 17 places on the course scale (LEICESTER 30th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 9lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 68 last run (LEICESTER · 13 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 644thClass 5 · 1m1f176y · rated 704thClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 702ndClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 7411thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BEARWITHbest 78needs 70–712025-05-28 · TFR 68 · 1m1f207y · Good · C52025-06-14 · TFR 74 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-27 · TFR 74 · 1m2f44y · Firm · C52025-07-04 · TFR 59 · 1m4f22y · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-30 · TFR 55 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C52025-11-22 · TFR 69 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52025-12-13 · TFR 71 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52025-12-20 · TFR 56 · 1m2f42y · Std/Slow · C52026-01-03 · TFR 67 · 1m3f22y · Std · C52026-01-20 · TFR 72 · 1m3f22y · Std · C52026-02-14 · TFR 73 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52026-03-05 · TFR 66 · 1m2f42y · Std · C52026-03-28 · TFR 62 · 1m2f44y · Gd/Sft · C52026-04-18 · TFR 74 · 1m2f51y · Good · C52026-04-29 · TFR 70 · 1m2f · Good · C52026-05-17 · TFR 70 · 1m1f169y · Good · C52026-06-13 · TFR 64 · 1m2f · Good · C528 May 2513 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Harriet Bethell · 218 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle4/2218.2%1.512/922.2%1.69
Over 9-10f trips3/3010.0%0.622/1118.2%1.57
On the all-weather7/4914.3%1.113/1618.8%1.36
In Class 6-7 company13/6320.6%1.174/1723.5%1.31
Coming back after 15 to 45 days14/8416.7%1.176/3119.4%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark2/1711.8%0.830/40.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)8/6512.3%0.870/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
T. Kiely-Marshall · last 14 days: 1/12 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.68 (n84)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 13
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 13
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 13
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 13
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Leicester1m2fGood59th6768True38.2 -0.04101.8+0.18
17 May 26Ripon1m1f170yGood54th6861True38.0 -0.02101.1+0.05
29 Apr 26Pontefract1m2fGood54th7066.5Fast early38.0 +0.2092.2+0.17
18 Apr 26Nottingham1m2f50yGood52nd6767Fast early38.8 +0.3998.2+0.10
28 Mar 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Sft511th6863.5True36.8 -0.06103.5+0.30
5 Mar 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd58th6969.5Slow early39.4 -0.61116.7+0.26
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.45par2f+0.65slow3f+0.49slow4f+0.69slow5f+0.70par6f+0.56par7f+0.32par1m+0.33fast1m 1f+0.74slow1m 2f+1.32very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-05 to 2026-06-13. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
GOLSPIE (IRE) · 6 meetings≈ 1.3L ahead on today's terms · reverses
28 Mar 26 · 1m2f43y · Gd/Sft — finished 11th vs 2nd, 6.1L behind · OR 68 v 64 · race median 64 (today 59)
JEWEL MAKER (IRE) · 5 meetings≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Dec 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 3rd vs 6th, 2.05L ahead · OR 70 v 67 · race median 70 (today 59)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.0L adj, 7 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs MAPLE (read through STAR CAST, LIEUTENANT LILY) ≈ +5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BROADSTONE (read through KING CHAOS, DINGWALL, WHATACRACKER, HASHTAGNOTIONS) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RUBELLITE (IRE) (read through PRINCE ACHILLE, KING CHAOS, STAR CAST, ANA EMARAATY) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SWEET KISS (read through STAR CAST, NATZOR, MOLINARI, KING CHAOS) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/10 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (29 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden approaching 2f out, not quicken”
#5 TOKEN LOVE (FR) PROMINENT
DRAW 8 · OR 58 · Aiden Brookes / Micky Hammond
MARKET 6.8 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
58 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.9% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 13 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 674thClass 6 · 1m · rated 577thClass 6 · 1m66y · rated 635thClass 5 · 1m1f110y · rated 612ndClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 70
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TOKEN LOVE (FR)best 71needs 70–712025-07-04 · TFR 54 · 6f211y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-08-23 · TFR 71 · 1m · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-09-12 · TFR 13 · 7f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-10-04 · TFR 50 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-25 · TFR 50 · 1m143y · Slow · C52025-12-01 · TFR 70 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-12-30 · TFR 61 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C52026-04-08 · TFR 63 · 1m75y · Good · C62026-04-29 · TFR 57 · 1m · Good · C6 · off-trip2026-07-17 · TFR 67 · 1m2f51y · Gd/Frm · C64 Jul 2517 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Micky Hammond · 326 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle2/523.8%0.930/70.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips3/496.1%0.950/90.0%0.0
In fields of 12-151/521.9%0.450/140.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company9/1675.4%0.81/492.0%0.29
On the all-weather5/1034.9%1.061/362.8%0.56
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)3/545.6%0.880/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Aiden Brookes · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.9 (n181) · with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n319)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 13
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 13
-0.02s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed13th of 13
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 13
7.47 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jul 26Nottingham1m2f50yGd/Frm62nd5959True38.6 +0.57102.3-0.04
29 Apr 26Pontefract1mGood64th6060Fast early37.4 +0.4693.1+0.00
8 Apr 26Nottingham1m75yGood67th6161Fast early38.3 -0.5296.5+0.03
30 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow55th6267True39.6 +0.4399.7-0.10
1 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow62nd6055True39.5 +0.5399.4-0.05
25 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m142ySlow510th6565True37.1 -0.96102.3+0.05
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.02par2f+0.05slow3f+0.05par4f+0.09par5f+0.07fast6f+0.05fast7fledfast1mledfast1m 1fledslow1m 2f+0.43very slow
Timed runs 2025-10-25 to 2026-07-17. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BROADSTONE · 1 meeting≈ 12.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
1 Dec 25 · 1m1f104y · Slow — finished 2nd vs 10th, 15.25L ahead · OR 60 v 53 · race median 55 (today 59)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+12.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RUBELLITE (IRE) (read through SHIELAS WELL, OMAN) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IDYLLIC (read through MASEKELA, DANDY'S ANGEL) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GOLSPIE (IRE) (read through RIYADH GEM, OMAN, TORTURED SOUL, SERIOUS LOOK) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEARWITH (read through TORTURED SOUL, SHOWSTORM, VOLTO DI MEDUSA, GOLDIE TRICKETT) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.21 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, every chance approaching final 1f, weakened final 100 yds”
#6 SWEET KISS HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 59 · Jake Dickson / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 11 → 17.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
66.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 5.7pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; solid late gains (7th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
66.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (2.26)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.6s
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.13% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 645thClass 6 · 1m3f198y · rated 664thClass 6 · 1m3f44y · rated 699thClass 4 · 1m3f22y · rated 527thClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 53
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SWEET KISSneeds 70–71best 702025-04-09 · TFR 50 · 7f · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-05-03 · TFR 53 · 7f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-05-12 · TFR 51 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-19 · TFR 43 · 1m · Soft · C6 · off-trip2025-07-28 · TFR 50 · 1m2f · Good · C62025-08-16 · TFR 66 · 1m2f44y · Firm · C52025-09-01 · TFR 63 · 1m1f · Good · C52025-09-09 · TFR 65 · 1m2f · Firm · C52025-09-18 · TFR 70 · 1m2f · Soft · C62025-10-04 · TFR 62 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C42025-10-23 · TFR 70 · 1m2f51y · Heavy · C62025-11-26 · TFR 53 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C62026-05-17 · TFR 52 · 1m3f15y · Good · C42026-05-29 · TFR 69 · 1m3f40y · Good · C62026-06-05 · TFR 66 · 1m3f198y · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-06 · TFR 64 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C69 Apr 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark51/6747.6%0.6628/21313.1%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle13/1538.5%0.861/283.6%0.41
In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58
On the all-weather ✦19/2627.3%0.774/567.1%0.77
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Jake Dickson · last 14 days: 4/20 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.85 (n17) · with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n96)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 13
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 13
+0.39s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 13
101.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 13
7.03 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ayr1m2fGd/Frm66th6059.5—39.8 +0.15106.1+0.58—
5 Jun 26Doncaster1m3f197yGd/Frm65th6261.5True38.1 -0.09104.0+0.30
29 May 26Carlisle1m3f39yGood64th6461Fast early39.0 +0.0896.8+0.71
17 May 26Hamilton Park1m3f15yGood49th6469True39.9 -0.45101.5+0.21
26 Nov 25Newcastle1m2f42ySlow67th6460True38.0 -0.04105.4+0.27
23 Oct 25Nottingham1m2f50yHeavy62nd6363Fast early35.9 +0.0993.0+0.29
Timed runs 2025-10-23 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
NATURALIA · 3 meetings≈ 8.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 4th, 1.75L behind · OR 60 v 62 · race median 60 (today 59)
GOLSPIE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Nov 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 7th vs 5th, 5.25L behind · OR 64 v 65 · race median 60 (today 59)
Read through a common rival
vs EAGLES DREAM (IRE) (read through IZZARI, KRISSY, WISH THIS) ≈ +5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IDYLLIC (read through NINTH LIFE, STAR CAST, KING CHAOS, TEE AITCH AYE) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEARWITH (read through STAR CAST, NATZOR, MOLINARI, KING CHAOS) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAPLE (read through STAR CAST, HARSWELL DUKE, NOSS MAYO, ROYAL BLAZE) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 2.26)Lost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, off pace, not clear run around 2f out, progress around 1f out, never on terms”
#7 RUBELLITE (IRE) MID
DRAW 2 · OR 63 · Conor Whiteley / Stephen Hanlon
MARKET drifting 3.3 → 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
62.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; its figure was earned at a different trip.
FormLab Figure
62.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 68 · earned over 14.0/12.4/14.0f — best at today's distance only 59, below the 62 rating
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · below market expectation (0.92)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 108.3% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 18 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 56 last run (REDCAR · 20 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 1m6f · rated 541stClass 6 · 1m4f88y · rated 681stClass 6 · 1m6f · rated 654thClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 632ndClass 5 · 1m6f22y · rated 64
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RUBELLITE (IRE)needs 70–71best 682025-01-31 · TFR 55 · 1m4f13y · Std · C62025-02-14 · TFR 59 · 2m101y · Std · C6 · off-trip2025-02-27 · TFR 58 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-03-12 · TFR 59 · 1m6f · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-04-08 · TFR 61 · 1m4f13y · Std · C62025-07-28 · TFR 56 · 1m6f22y · Std · C5 · off-trip2025-09-02 · TFR 63 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-09-25 · TFR 65 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-10-04 · TFR 65 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-11-01 · TFR 59 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C62025-12-06 · TFR 60 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-12-09 · TFR 64 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2026-01-30 · TFR 56 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-03-10 · TFR 64 · 1m6f22y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-04-21 · TFR 63 · 1m4f51y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-05-08 · TFR 65 · 1m6f · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-06-02 · TFR 68 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2026-06-20 · TFR 54 · 1m6f · Good · C6 · off-trip31 Jan 2520 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stephen Hanlon · 74 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-15—1/137.7%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark—2/316.5%0.52
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)—0/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 68 is below the ~70 the race demands
The rider
Conor Whiteley · last 14 days: 2/15 · at Newcastle: A/E 2.22 (n21) · with this yard: A/E 1.1 (n29)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 13
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 13
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 13
108.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length12th of 13
6.82 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Redcar1m6fGood64th6356True38.2 -0.01106.1+0.16
2 Jun 26Newcastle1m4f98ySlow61st6056True37.3 +0.13100.3—
8 May 26Wolverhampton1m6fStd61st5845Fast early39.7 +0.82115.0—
21 Apr 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd64th5856True37.4 +0.06108.6+0.14
10 Mar 26Southwell1m6f21yStd52nd5860True38.3 +0.63107.9+0.24
30 Jan 26Southwell1m3f23yStd65th5957True38.6 +0.01112.0+0.46
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.52fast2f+0.61par3f+0.62par4f+0.69par5f+0.68par6f+0.78fast7f+0.69fast1m+0.74par1m 1f+0.42par1m 2f+0.36par1m 3f+0.22par1m 4f+0.56very slow1m 5f+1.25very slow1m 6f+2.19very slow
Timed runs 2026-01-30 to 2026-06-20. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs MAPLE (read through ALPINE SIERRA, ROYAL BLAZE, WAVE ROCK, STAR CAST) ≈ -4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TOKEN LOVE (FR) (read through SHIELAS WELL, OMAN) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEARWITH (read through PRINCE ACHILLE, KING CHAOS, STAR CAST, ANA EMARAATY) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GOLSPIE (IRE) (read through PRINCE ACHILLE, FALCON NINE, ALPINE SIERRA, KING CHAOS) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 8/33 on the all-weather3lb above his last winning mark (63 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 14.0/12.4/14.0f, not today's distance — best near today's trip is only 59, below the 62 rating (may overstate him here)Jockey goes well at this track (2.22x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 11 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, outpaced over 3f out, plugged on final 1f, never on terms”
#8 MAPLE MID
DRAW 5 · OR 53 · Rhys Elliott / Ruth Jefferson
MARKET drifting 4.7 → 7.4 · the market rates it a 14% chance
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 11pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
53 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.2s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.14% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 7lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 52 last run (NEWCASTLE · 26 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 616thClass 6 · 1m110y · rated 533rdClass 6 · 1m110y · rated 592ndClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 592ndClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MAPLEbest 98needs 70–712025-01-31 · TFR 98 · 1m7f156y · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2025-03-21 · TFR 94 · 2m1f88y · Good · C2 · off-trip2025-11-01 · TFR 55 · 2m · Soft · C4 · off-trip2025-12-22 · TFR 86 · 1m7f123y · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2026-01-24 · TFR 62 · 1m2f42y · Std · C62026-03-11 · TFR 59 · 1m2f42y · Std · C62026-04-23 · TFR 59 · 1m99y · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-30 · TFR 53 · 1m99y · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-26 · TFR 61 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C631 Jan 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ruth Jefferson
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 64 is below the ~70 the race demands
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 1/25 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.66 (n141)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 13
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 13
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 13
103.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 13
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle1m2f42ySlow63rd5352True39.1 +0.35111.0+0.00
30 May 26Beverley1m100yGd/Frm66th5551True38.2 +0.0899.5+0.35
23 Apr 26Beverley1m100yGd/Frm63rd5658True38.6 -0.3097.1+0.19
11 Mar 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd62nd5658True39.0 +0.01111.1+0.25
24 Jan 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd62nd5556True39.0 +0.00109.7+0.18
4 Jul 24Yarmouth1mGood58th5766True39.4 -0.0190.4+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.22fast2f+0.48par3f+0.50par4f+0.71slow5f+0.62very slow6f+0.57very slow7f+0.46slow1m+0.54fast1m 1f+0.45very fast1m 2f+0.30very fast
Timed runs 2024-07-04 to 2026-06-26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs BEARWITH (read through STAR CAST, LIEUTENANT LILY) ≈ -5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RUBELLITE (IRE) (read through ALPINE SIERRA, ROYAL BLAZE, WAVE ROCK, STAR CAST) ≈ +4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SWEET KISS (read through STAR CAST, HARSWELL DUKE, NOSS MAYO, ROYAL BLAZE) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs JEWEL MAKER (IRE) (read through STAR CAST, ALPINE SIERRA, WOODLEIGH, NO KNEE NEVER) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden 2f out, kept on”
#9 GEMINI MAN (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 53 · Cara Tuke / Iain Jardine
MARKET backed 11 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 7+ / 1−
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 11pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 61
Official mark (OR)
53 · last won off 52
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.57)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: 36.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.13% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 51 last run (MUSSELBURGH · 30 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
DNFClass 6 · 1m4f110y · rated —1stClass 6 · 1m4f110y · rated 611stClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 552ndClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 531stClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 52
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GEMINI MAN (IRE)best 101needs 70–712025-02-16 · TFR 91 · 1m7f123y · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2025-03-21 · TFR 88 · 2m1f88y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-06-18 · TFR 56 · 1m1f35y · Good · C62025-07-06 · TFR 55 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C6 · off-trip2025-08-02 · TFR 57 · 1m1f35y · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-09 · TFR 48 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C62025-11-28 · TFR 92 · 1m7f123y · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2025-12-22 · TFR 101 · 1m7f123y · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2026-01-31 · TFR 90 · 1m7f123y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-02-23 · TFR 52 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62026-03-10 · TFR 53 · 1m4f51y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-06-02 · TFR 55 · 1m2f42y · Std · C62026-06-22 · TFR 61 · 1m4f103y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip16 Feb 2522 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Iain Jardine · 1198 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Andrew Mullen, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle ✦24/22110.9%1.111/7913.9%1.52
Above their last winning mark30/26311.4%0.9519/10917.4%1.47
In Class 6-7 company ✦50/35214.2%1.1726/13119.8%1.43
In fields of 12-1516/1918.4%1.185/4311.6%1.4
On the all-weather ✦34/30911.0%1.0318/11915.1%1.35
Coming back after 15 to 45 days31/4167.5%0.8117/14012.1%1.32
At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.997/4117.1%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips11/1199.2%0.892/444.5%0.49
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 61 is below the ~70 the race demands
The rider
Cara Tuke · at Newcastle: A/E 1.34 (n15) · with this yard: A/E 0.86 (n40)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 13
+0.55 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 13
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 13
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 13
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh1m4f104yGd/Frm6—5651True—65.2—
22 Jun 26Musselburgh1m4f104yGd/Frm61st5258.5True38.4 +0.45106.9+0.23
2 Jun 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd61st——True38.4 +0.49110.7-0.05
10 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd62nd——True38.8 +1.65110.3+0.00
23 Feb 26Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow61st——Fast early39.2 +0.31107.7+0.00
9 Aug 25Ayr1m2fGd/Frm65th——True37.6 -0.16100.0+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.37fast2f+0.64par3f+0.72par4f+0.73par5f+0.68par6f+0.70par7f+0.78slow1m+1.10par1m 1f+1.77slow1m 2f+6.10very slow1m 3f+14.21very slow1m 4f+37.50very slow
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-06-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
NATURALIA · 1 meeting≈ 3.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
22 Jun 26 · 1m4f104y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.3L ahead · OR 52 v 62 · race median 58 (today 59)
BROADSTONE · 1 meeting≈ 22.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
2 Jun 26 · 1m2f42y · Std — finished 1st vs 13th, 22.6L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+16.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs JEWEL MAKER (IRE) (read through STORM ON JURA, ON THE BUBBLE) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GOLSPIE (IRE) (read through DARING LEADER, HASHTAGNOTIONS) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IDYLLIC (read through SOPHIESTICATE, HOT TEAM) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SWEET KISS (read through STORM ON JURA, DWINDLING FUNDS, TRANSFUSE, ZEBRA STAR) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.57)Jockey goes well at this track (1.34x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, under pressure 4f out, weakened early in straight, pulled up”
#10 EAGLES DREAM (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 61 · Alex Jary / Tristan Davidson
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
59.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 12.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; one-paced late — 9th of 13 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
59.3 · ranked #10 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
61 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.39% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 6 · 1m · rated 538thClass 5 · 1m1f · rated —5thClass · 1m6f88y · rated 7213thClass · 1m4f · rated 534thClass · 1m4f88y · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for EAGLES DREAM (IRE)best 75needs 70–712025-04-23 · TFR 49 · 1m · Soft · off-trip2025-05-06 · TFR 54 · 1m · Good · off-trip2025-05-13 · TFR 75 · 1m3f51y · Good2025-07-21 · TFR 74 · 1m1f134y · Gd/Sft2025-07-28 · TFR 74 · 1m4f84y · Gd/Sft · off-trip2025-07-31 · TFR 53 · 1m4f · Gd/Sft2025-08-22 · TFR 72 · 1m6f79y · Good · off-trip2026-07-13 · TFR 53 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip23 Apr 2513 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tristan Davidson · 275 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days8/6711.9%1.024/2020.0%1.8
At this time of year (Q3)13/8515.3%1.443/1225.0%1.46
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips2/1612.5%1.330/60.0%0.0
In fields of 12-155/5010.0%1.330/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Alex Jary · last 14 days: 1/17 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.05 (n182) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 13
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph13th of 13
+1.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 13
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 13
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jul 26Ayr1mGd/Frm68th6458True41.8 +0.00104.3+1.52
4 Jul 26Carlisle1m1fGood58th6667—38.2 -0.1296.5+0.91—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.76very slow2f+1.68par3f+1.41fast4f+1.15par5f+1.05fast6f+1.05par7f+0.93par1m+1.41slow
Timed runs 2026-07-04 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
JEWEL MAKER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 23.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
4 Jul 26 · 1m1f · Good — finished 8th vs 7th, 25L behind · OR 66 v 59 · race median 67 (today 59)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-23.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SWEET KISS (read through IZZARI, KRISSY, WISH THIS) ≈ -5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IDYLLIC (read through IZZARI, STARLINER) ≈ -5.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GOLSPIE (IRE) (read through STARLINER, WHISKEY PETE, IZZARI, KRISSY) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formOnly 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 6.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“very slowly away, always behind”
#11 JEWEL MAKER (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 12 · OR 57 · Jack Nicholls / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 21 → 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
55 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 17pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
55 · ranked #11 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
57 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 27 tries · below market expectation (0.9)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s)
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.2% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 67 last run (CARLISLE · 4 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 5 · 1m1f · rated 428thClass 6 · 7f176y · rated 584thClass 6 · 1m1f · rated 657thClass 5 · 1m1f176y · rated 5511thClass 5 · 1m · rated 34
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for JEWEL MAKER (IRE)best 78needs 70–712025-04-14 · TFR 65 · 1m · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-04-29 · TFR 66 · 1m2f51y · Good · C52025-05-21 · TFR 66 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-06-21 · TFR 58 · 1m · Firm · C6 · off-trip2025-07-01 · TFR 65 · 1m209y · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-28 · TFR 64 · 1m · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-08-12 · TFR 66 · 7f174y · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-08-23 · TFR 65 · 1m2f · Good · C52025-08-29 · TFR 58 · 1m · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-09-01 · TFR 73 · 7f174y · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-09-08 · TFR 63 · 1m · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-09-18 · TFR 59 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2025-10-04 · TFR 72 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-13 · TFR 52 · 1m209y · Good · C52025-11-01 · TFR 69 · 1m · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-11-22 · TFR 59 · 1m · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-12-13 · TFR 64 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C52026-03-20 · TFR 46 · 1m143y · Std · C52026-04-10 · TFR 34 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2026-05-08 · TFR 55 · 1m1f169y · Good · C52026-05-29 · TFR 65 · 1m1f · Good · C62026-06-15 · TFR 58 · 7f174y · Good · C6 · off-trip2026-07-04 · TFR 42 · 1m1f · Good · C514 Apr 254 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle13/1538.5%0.861/283.6%0.41
In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58
On the all-weather ✦19/2627.3%0.774/567.1%0.77
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Jack Nicholls · last 14 days: 5/23 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.53 (n48)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 13
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 13
+0.51s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed10th of 13
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length13th of 13
6.81 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Carlisle1m1fGood57th5967—38.3 -0.0996.5+0.20—
15 Jun 26Carlisle7f173yGood68th6060.5True38.3 +0.4198.7+0.49
29 May 26Carlisle1m1fGood64th6062True36.1 -0.19100.6+0.36
8 May 26Ripon1m1f170yGood57th6269True39.3 +0.0298.6+0.51
10 Apr 26Thirsk1mGd/Sft511th6466True38.4 -0.11104.3+0.95
20 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd59th6666Fast early38.4 -0.33102.5+0.56
Timed runs 2026-03-20 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BEARWITH · 5 meetings≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Dec 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 6th vs 3rd, 2.05L behind · OR 67 v 70 · race median 70 (today 59)
GOLSPIE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Dec 25 · 1m2f42y · Slow — finished 6th vs 7th, 0.2L ahead · OR 67 v 63 · race median 70 (today 59)
CAVALRY CALL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
18 Sep 25 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 5th vs 7th, 4.5L ahead · OR 68 v 75 · race median 70 (today 59)
EAGLES DREAM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 23.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
4 Jul 26 · 1m1f · Good — finished 7th vs 8th, 25L ahead · OR 59 v 66 · race median 67 (today 59)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+6.0L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BROADSTONE (read through KING CHAOS, VERY CLASSY, SHIELAS WELL, HOMELAND) ≈ +5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs NATURALIA (read through WITHOUT COMPROMISE, MOLINARI, KING CHAOS, NATZOR) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GEMINI MAN (IRE) (read through STORM ON JURA, ON THE BUBBLE) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAPLE (read through STAR CAST, ALPINE SIERRA, WOODLEIGH, NO KNEE NEVER) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
9lb below his last winning mark (57 today vs 66)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, switched under 2f out, ridden and headway soon after, not sustain effort”
#12 CAVALRY CALL (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 62 · Donagh Murphy / Patrick Morris
MARKET 110 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−
51.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 20.7pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; solid late gains (8th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
51.3 · ranked #12 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
62 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · in line with the market (1.01)
Days since last run
70
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.64% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 6 · 1m3f198y · rated 448thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 517thClass 4 · 1m2f44y · rated 597thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 257thClass 5 · 1m · rated 54
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CAVALRY CALL (IRE)best 86needs 70–712025-02-16 · TFR 66 · 1m · Slow · C4 · off-trip2025-03-05 · TFR 68 · 1m · Std · C4 · off-trip2025-04-03 · TFR 82 · 1m2f · Slow · C42025-04-20 · TFR 84 · 1m2f37y · Firm · C52025-04-24 · TFR 81 · 1m2f · Slow · C42025-05-19 · TFR 86 · 1m3f99y · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-31 · TFR 14 · 1m3f132y · Good · C42025-08-09 · TFR 67 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-09-04 · TFR 74 · 1m2f42y · Good · C42025-09-18 · TFR 54 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2025-09-30 · TFR 25 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C42025-11-27 · TFR 59 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C42026-01-20 · TFR 51 · 1m2f42y · Std · C52026-05-16 · TFR 44 · 1m3f198y · Gd/Frm · C616 Feb 2516 May 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Patrick Morris · 466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 46 to 90 days1/323.1%0.591/911.1%1.47
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips3/515.9%0.760/120.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/731.4%0.20/120.0%0.0
In fields of 12-152/504.0%0.760/180.0%0.0
At Newcastle11/10510.5%1.092/444.5%0.41
Below their last winning mark6/5810.3%1.232/375.4%0.68
On the all-weather ✦19/2388.0%0.879/1197.6%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Donagh Murphy · last 14 days: 0/13 · with this yard: A/E 0.98 (n8)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 13
-0.39 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 13
+0.33s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 13
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 13
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 May 26Doncaster1m3f197yGd/Frm67th6557True36.5 -0.3697.6+0.01
20 Jan 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd58th6868Slow early38.5 +0.10110.0+0.72
27 Nov 25Newcastle1m2f42ySlow47th7076True38.0 -0.44103.8+0.05
30 Sep 25Ayr1m2fGd/Sft47th7270Fast early35.9 -0.6092.4+0.23
18 Sep 25Ayr1mGd/Sft57th7570True37.0 -1.0095.9+0.23
4 Sep 25Haydock Park1m2f42yGood48th7775True38.6 -0.02104.2+0.75
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.14fast2f+0.13slow3fledpar4fledfast5f+0.04fast6f+0.19fast7fledfast1mledpar1m 1fledslow1m 2f+0.39very slow1m 3f+1.06very slow1m 4f+2.86very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-04 to 2026-05-16. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
JEWEL MAKER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 Sep 25 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 7th vs 5th, 4.5L behind · OR 75 v 68 · race median 70 (today 59)
GOLSPIE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
20 Jan 26 · 1m2f42y · Std — finished 8th vs 5th, 8.75L behind · OR 68 v 68 · race median 68 (today 59)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-7.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BROADSTONE (read through KING CHAOS, PROJECT GEOFIN, THREE YORKSHIREMEN, WHISKEY PETE) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEARWITH (read through PRINCE ACHILLE, WITHOUT COMPROMISE, IMPERIAL TROOPER, HAVEYOUMISSEDME) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SWEET KISS (read through KING CHAOS, LIGHTENING COMPANY, JEZ BOMB, CONDOTTI) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs NATURALIA (read through WITHOUT COMPROMISE, JEZ BOMB, KING CHAOS, LIGHTENING COMPANY) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
13lb below his last winning mark (62 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden 3f out, weakening when hampered 2f out”
#13 BROADSTONE HELD-UP
DRAW 10 · OR 46 · Matthew Lloyd Slater / John Norton
MARKET drifting 85 → 200 · the market rates it a 0% chance
8.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 63.3pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
8.7 · ranked #13 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
46 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 13 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 5.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.3% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 54.5 last run (CARLISLE · 9 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 6 · 1m3f44y · rated 113thClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 1210thClass 6 · 1m4f22y · rated 134thClass 6 · 1m3f22y · rated 495thClass 6 · 1m3f22y · rated 47
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BROADSTONEbest 74needs 70–712025-04-02 · TFR 66 · 1m · Gd/Sft · off-trip2025-04-25 · TFR 59 · 7f · Soft · off-trip2025-05-30 · TFR 74 · 1m2f110y · Gd/Sft2025-06-21 · TFR 70 · 1m2f99y · Good · C52025-07-04 · TFR 31 · 1m2f42y · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-01 · TFR 35 · 1m1f · Good · C52025-09-14 · TFR 33 · 1m2f44y · Good · C42025-10-14 · TFR 45 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C62025-10-27 · TFR 56 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C62025-11-03 · TFR 2 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C6 · off-trip2025-12-01 · TFR 29 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-12-28 · TFR 42 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-01-06 · TFR 47 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-01-22 · TFR 49 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-02-05 · TFR 13 · 1m4f13y · Std · C62026-06-02 · TFR 12 · 1m2f42y · Std · C62026-07-09 · TFR 1 · 1m3f40y · Gd/Frm · C62 Apr 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Norton
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70 demand
The rider
Matthew Lloyd Slater · last 14 days: 0/6 · at Newcastle: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 13
+0.26 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 13
+0.49s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 13
103.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length9th of 13
6.95 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Carlisle1m3f39yGd/Frm66th4654.5True39.4 -0.0995.5+0.41
2 Jun 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd613th——True37.8 -0.15103.3+0.03
5 Feb 26Southwell1m4f14yStd610th4850True37.9 +0.7595.6+0.53
22 Jan 26Southwell1m3f23yStd64th4848True38.3 +0.44109.4+0.48
6 Jan 26Southwell1m3f23yStd65th——True38.2 +0.27111.1+0.41
28 Dec 25Southwell1m3f23yStd69th5057.5True38.1 +0.35105.0+1.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.04very slow2f+1.17par3f+1.11par4f+1.08very slow5f+1.09par6f+0.84par7f+0.65par1m+0.59par1m 1f+0.42fast1m 2f+0.82fast1m 3f+5.17very slow
Timed runs 2025-12-28 to 2026-07-09. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TOKEN LOVE (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 12.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
1 Dec 25 · 1m1f104y · Slow — finished 10th vs 2nd, 15.25L behind · OR 53 v 60 · race median 55 (today 59)
GEMINI MAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 22.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
2 Jun 26 · 1m2f42y · Std — finished 13th vs 1st, 22.6L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-17.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs JEWEL MAKER (IRE) (read through KING CHAOS, VERY CLASSY, SHIELAS WELL, HOMELAND) ≈ -5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAVALRY CALL (IRE) (read through KING CHAOS, PROJECT GEOFIN, THREE YORKSHIREMEN, WHISKEY PETE) ≈ -4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BEARWITH (read through KING CHAOS, DINGWALL, WHATACRACKER, HASHTAGNOTIONS) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs GOLSPIE (IRE) (read through BUSBY, THREE YORKSHIREMEN, KING CHAOS, MR NUGGET) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, effort over 2f out, dropped away”