FORMLAB Race Report — Newcastle 14:05

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Newcastle · 14:05

Class 4 · 1m4f99y · Standard to Slow · FIELD MEDIAN OR 75

GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 13 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 12:50 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Standard to Slow

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32

FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 4	72	25%	58.3%	29.2%	62.5%
handicaps	159	25.2%	59.1%	25.8%	57.2%

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

MOLINARI (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (78% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (72% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 47% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, GLORY ROAD (GER) leads on 84.3, 1.3pts clear of TRIPOLI FLYER (IRE) — fits the winner profile on market position — though that figure was earned over a different trip. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is HAVEYOUMISSEDME — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes GLORY ROAD (GER) the 42% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 8

GLORY ROAD (GER)

OR 82 · Billy Loughnane / Ralph Beckett

MARKET backed 2.66 → 2.34 · the market rates it a 42% chance

84.3 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−figure earned over 9.0/10.0/8.3f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested here)The top rating in this field (84.3)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 9

TRIPOLI FLYER (IRE)

OR 76 · Dougie Costello / Fergal O'Brien

MARKET drifting 3.85 → 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (83.0)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

HAVEYOUMISSEDME

OR 74 · Andrew Mullen / Iain Jardine

MARKET 18 · the market rates it a 6% chance

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (82.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 2.01)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1HAVEYOUMISSEDMEnet +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup − figure earned on another surface, habitually slow away

2GLORY ROAD (GER)net +8figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard hot, fits the winner profile on market position

3RUBY WEDDINGnet +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. HAVEYOUMISSEDME is the one to beat it — an edge GLORY ROAD (GER) lacks: proven at the trip.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by prominent racers 31% · midfield runners 29% (43 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Stiff, uphill finish — a true stamina test. Winners’ energy signature: 47.26% spent early (band 46.25–48.04%, 76 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.52s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89

18 similar races at NEWCASTLE, 11.9-12.9f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (78% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (72% from the first three favourites). 22% won last time out, 33% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

50% 4yo

28% 3yo

11% 6yo+

Last ran

67% 15-45d

17% 46-90d

11% within 14d

Market

67% favourite

28% 4th+ in the market

6% 2nd favourite

LTO form

44% unplaced last time

33% placed last time

22% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 13 runners · stalls 1–13

12345678910111213

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 10.0 of 13, field average 7.0).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

MICK COLLINS (IRE) — — — -

AULIS HELD-UP 48.6% 107.2 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

TRIPOLI FLYER (IRE) HELD-UP 48.7% 105.7 a genuine turn of foot — 7th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

LIGHTNING TIGER (IRE) HELD-UP 47.3% 108.8 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

HAVEYOUMISSEDME HELD-UP 46.5% 112.0 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

JINDRI (IRE) MID 48.4% 105.8 a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

AUSTRIAN THEORY (IRE) MID 50.8% 101.5 solid late gains (11th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

GLORY ROAD (GER) HELD-UP 47.3% 106.5 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

OURO PRETO (FR) HELD-UP 49.9% 105.2 a genuine turn of foot — 9th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

ENIAC (IRE) — — — -

MOLINARI (IRE) PROMINENT 48.8% 105.4 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and finds plenty late

RUBY WEDDING MID 48.2% 106.5 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

LAVENDER GOLD (FR) MID 48.5% 104.1 a genuine turn of foot — 10th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

MOLINARI (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.14s off the field’s best

MOLINARI (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 GLORY ROAD (GER) HELD-UP

DRAW 8 · OR 82 · Billy Loughnane / Ralph Beckett

MARKET backed 2.66 → 2.34 · the market rates it a 42% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

84.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 1.3pts clear of the next, fits the winner profile on market position; a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

84.3 · ranked #1 here · career best 86 · earned over 9.0/10.0/8.3f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)

Official mark (OR)

82 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

46

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 106.53% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 4 · 1m1f · rated 843rdClass 3 · 1m2f · rated 862ndClass 2 · 1m66y · rated 83

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 46 to 90 days19/11716.2%1.016/2821.4%1.35

At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 12-1526/20312.8%1.03/506.0%0.41

Over 11f+ trips51/24221.1%1.067/808.8%0.46

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)0/90.0%0.00/70.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 86 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~83.0 demand here

The rider

Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 17/57 · at Newcastle: A/E 1 (n205) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11

+0.51 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 11

+0.33s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 11

106.5%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length1st of 11

7.23 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jun 26Carlisle1m1fGd/Sft42nd———37.3 +1.15105.2+0.49—

15 May 26Newbury1m2fGood33rd——True39.6 -0.07109.5+0.19

8 Oct 25Nottingham1m75ySoft22nd——True37.3 +0.45104.9+0.32

Timed runs 2025-10-08 to 2026-06-09. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formThe top rating in this field (84.3)Rating earned over 9.0/10.0/8.3f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.02 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“dwelt, mid-field, ridden and headway wide 3f out, led over 1f out, headed final 50 yds, clear of rest”

#2 TRIPOLI FLYER (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 9 · OR 76 · Dougie Costello / Fergal O'Brien

MARKET drifting 3.85 → 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 1.3pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

83.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

76 · last won off 72

Record at today's distance

1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (3.09)

Days since last run

23

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 105.67% (strong late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 12lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 87 last run (KEMPTON PARK · 2 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 3 · 1m4f · rated 833rdClass 3 · 1m3f · rated 754thClass 3 · 1m2f44y · rated 757thClass 2 · 1m4f22y · rated 67

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Fergal O'Brien · 97 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)2/355.7%0.621/425.0%2.46

Coming back after 15 to 45 days3/329.4%0.785/1338.5%2.21

On the all-weather2/355.7%0.916/2623.1%1.59

Over 11f+ trips7/4117.1%1.214/1822.2%1.45

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company4/449.1%0.960/40.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)0/10.0%0.0—

In fields of 12-15 (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.0 demand

The rider

Dougie Costello · last 14 days: 1/9 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.6 (n59) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n5)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11

+0.44 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph11th of 11

+0.46s

Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed7th of 11

105.7%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 11

7.17 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Jul 26Kempton Park1m4fSlow31st7287Fast early37.1 +0.09102.7+0.22

27 May 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow33rd——Slow early37.6 +0.91107.3+0.67

8 Apr 26Nottingham1m2f50yGood34th——Slow early39.6 +0.00110.4+0.80

20 Feb 26Southwell1m4f14yStd/Slow27th——Slow early38.9 +0.77102.2+0.14

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.45par2f+0.90par3f+1.13par4f+0.49fast5f+0.69slow6f+0.61fast7f+0.52fast1m+0.86fast1m 1f+0.98fast1m 2f+0.66par1m 3f+0.07slow1m 4fledvery slow

Timed runs 2026-02-20 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

4lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 72)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (83.0)Only 3 runs at this distance

LTO comment

“steadied start, held up, off pace still 2f out, ran on late”

#3 HAVEYOUMISSEDME HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 74 · Andrew Mullen / Iain Jardine

MARKET 18 · the market rates it a 6% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 2.3pts off the top, proven at the trip; its figure was earned on a different surface.

FormLab Figure

82.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 84

Official mark (OR)

74 · last won off 72

Record at today's distance

1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (2.01)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 111.95% (strong late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 81 last run (NEWCASTLE · 27 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 2 · 2m66y · rated 823rdClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 807thClass 4 · 1m4f110y · rated 732ndClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 755thClass 3 · 1m2f44y · rated 70

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Iain Jardine · 1198 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Andrew Mullen, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up, off a judgement-rated last figure

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Newcastle ✦24/22110.9%1.111/7913.9%1.52

Above their last winning mark30/26311.4%0.9519/10917.4%1.47

In fields of 12-1516/1918.4%1.185/4311.6%1.4

On the all-weather ✦34/30911.0%1.0318/11915.1%1.35

Coming back after 15 to 45 days31/4167.5%0.8117/14012.1%1.32

At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.997/4117.1%1.26

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 11f+ trips16/12912.4%1.142/365.6%0.63

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.0 demand

The rider

Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 1/23 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.98 (n361) · with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n733)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields1st of 11

+0.53 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph9th of 11

+0.42s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed1st of 11

112.0%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length11th of 11

6.87 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26Newcastle2m56ySlow22nd7281Slow early38.9 +0.59106.5+0.51

1 May 26Newcastle1m2f42ySlow53rd7373True38.3 +0.62107.8+0.86

12 Apr 26Musselburgh1m4f104yGood47th7375True39.2 +0.86107.3+0.27

5 Mar 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd52nd7369.5Slow early40.0 +0.01117.7+0.17

31 Jan 26Newcastle1m2f42ySlow35th7482Slow early40.1 -0.02118.4+0.38

20 Jan 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd53rd7468Slow early39.5 +1.10114.0+0.32

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.87fast2f+1.01fast3f+1.14fast4f+1.26fast5f+1.64slow6f+1.66slow7f+1.44slow1m+1.34slow1m 1f+1.13par1m 2f+1.04very slow1m 3f+1.08very slow1m 4f+1.19slow1m 5f+0.59fast1m 6f+0.33fast1m 7f+0.22par2m+0.20par

Timed runs 2026-01-20 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 4 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs AULIS (read through SAY WHAT YOU SEE, NORTHWEST PASSAGE) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs OURO PRETO (FR) (read through TROJAN SUN, MAO SHANG WONG, BELIEVITANDUCAN, HUMBLE SPARK) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LIGHTNING TIGER (IRE) (read through RELOCAL, MADE ALL, PRINCE ACHILLE, SIXPACK) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs AUSTRIAN THEORY (IRE) (read through TROJAN SUN, INAPPROPRIATE, LONDONER, MAO SHANG WONG) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C2→C4) — earned under different conditionsProven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (82.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 2.01)Lost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“slowly away, off pace, headway 3f out, not clear run 2f out, ridden final 1f, kept on”

#4 ENIAC (IRE)

DRAW 12 · OR 80 · Darragh Keenan / Brian Ellison

MARKET drifting 18 → 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 2.3pts off the top, in form; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

82.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 82

Official mark (OR)

80 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

37

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

— · no timed finishing data

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass · 1m5f · rated 829thClass · 1m2f110y · rated 654thClass · 1m4f · rated 825thClass · 1m · rated 683rdClass · 1m · rated 79

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Brian Ellison · 771 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)27/23611.4%1.232/219.5%1.44

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 12-158/1336.0%1.11/452.2%0.29

Over 11f+ trips22/15714.0%1.211/293.4%0.45

Coming back after 15 to 45 days29/26411.0%1.084/894.5%0.54

In Class 4-5 company30/27111.1%1.25/1074.7%0.65

On the all-weather22/2379.3%1.055/806.2%0.75

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.0 demand

The rider

Darragh Keenan · last 14 days: 4/22 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.15 (n41) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)

Sectional profile

No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.

Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · never met today's rivals

Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“in touch, ridden early in straight, ran on”

#5 LAVENDER GOLD (FR) MID

DRAW 6 · OR 75 · Sean Dylan Bowen / David Menuisier

MARKET drifting 12 → 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 2.3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

82.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 82 · earned over 9.9/10.2/8.6f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 69

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

43

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 104.12% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

drops 10 places on the course scale (GOODWOOD 3rd → NEWCASTLE 13th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Steps into 12lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 63 last run (GOODWOOD · 12 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 1m1f198y · rated 827thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 713rdClass 5 · 1m132y · rated 732ndClass 5 · 7f88y · rated 703rdClass 2 · 1m22y · rated 69

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David Menuisier · 496 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦32/19616.3%1.2110/5916.9%1.35

In Class 4-5 company ✦30/20814.4%1.2310/6216.1%1.16

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)23/15414.9%1.240/130.0%0.0

On the all-weather15/13311.3%1.120/300.0%0.0

In fields of 12-157/848.3%0.970/150.0%0.0

Above their last winning mark18/7623.7%1.52/1811.1%0.58

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 82 is below the ~83.0 the race demands

The rider

Sean Dylan Bowen · last 14 days: 1/17 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.77 (n30) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n5)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields10th of 11

-0.11 mph

About the level of its fields · 37.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph10th of 11

+0.42s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed10th of 11

104.1%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length7th of 11

7.02 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

12 Jun 26Goodwood1m1f197ySoft51st6963True37.1 -0.10105.3+0.42

22 May 26Haydock Park1m2f42yGd/Sft57th7171True36.4 -0.36101.8+0.17

29 Nov 25Wolverhampton1m142ySlow53rd7170.5True38.9 +0.25107.5+0.38

28 Sep 25Ffos Las7f80yHeavy52nd——True35.2 -0.2799.7+0.00

1 Sep 25Windsor1m31yGd/Sft23rd——True38.2 +0.01106.1+0.68

25 Jul 25York7fGood37th——Slow early38.7 -0.20104.4+0.89

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4fledslow5fledvery fast6fledpar7fledfast1mledfast1m 1fledvery slow1m 2fledvery slow

Timed runs 2025-07-25 to 2026-06-12. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (10f→12f) — earned under different conditions6lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 69)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRating earned over 9.9/10.2/8.6f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Jockey goes well at this track (1.77x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“soon led, hung right over 2f out, asserted final 1f”

#6 MICK COLLINS (IRE)

DRAW 11 · OR 80 · David Nolan / Martin Todhunter

MARKET drifting 30 → 44 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 3.3pts off the top, in form; the price is the only question.

FormLab Figure

81.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 86

Official mark (OR)

80 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.48)

Days since last run

476

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

— · no timed finishing data

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass · 1m4f44y · rated 814thClass · 1m2f44y · rated 743rdClass · 1m4f44y · rated 782ndClass · 1m2f · rated 864thClass · 1m2f · rated 85

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Martin Todhunter · 84 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 11.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company1/482.1%0.220/110.0%0.0

At Newcastle0/140.0%0.0—

Over 11f+ trips4/517.8%0.720/170.0%0.0

Coming back after 180 days+0/50.0%0.00/40.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)2/1910.5%0.830/30.0%0.0

On the all-weather (small sample)0/170.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

In fields of 12-15 (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.0 demand

The rider

David Nolan · last 14 days: 0/9 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.01 (n279) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n39)

Sectional profile

No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.

Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · never met today's rivals

ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formOnly 2 runs at this distanceReturns from 476 days offHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“mid-division, outpaced straight”

#7 RUBY WEDDING MID

DRAW 2 · OR 78 · Callum Hutchinson / Andrew Balding

MARKET backed 10.5 → 7.4 · the market rates it a 13% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−

81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 3.3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

81.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 81

Official mark (OR)

78 · last won off 75

Record at today's distance

1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (1.65)

Days since last run

30

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s)
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 106.51% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 1m3f22y · rated 816thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 764thClass 3 · 1m1f198y · rated 775thClass 4 · 1m · rated 753rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 75

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Andrew Balding · 2437 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Newcastle ✦24/7532.0%1.6912/3831.6%1.43

Above their last winning mark ✦49/28917.0%1.0524/9824.5%1.35

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1270/29323.9%1.22

On the all-weather109/63417.2%0.9653/20525.9%1.16

In Class 4-5 company ✦184/96219.1%1.0357/23324.5%1.15

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 81 is below the ~83.0 the race demands

The rider

Callum Hutchinson · last 14 days: 2/19 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.58 (n24) · with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n275)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields5th of 11

+0.08 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 11

+0.24s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 11

106.5%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length5th of 11

7.18 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

25 Jun 26Hamilton Park1m3f15yGd/Frm51st75—True39.1 +0.16108.0-0.04

9 May 26Ascot1m1f212yGd/Frm46th7680True39.2 -0.15107.7+0.29

24 Apr 26Sandown Park1m1f209yGood34th——Slow early38.1 +0.36—+0.51

25 Oct 25Newbury1mHeavy45th——True36.6 -0.07105.1+0.26

6 Oct 25Yarmouth1mGd/Frm53rd——True39.8 +0.11105.2+0.19

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.07par2f+0.09par3f+0.24slow4f+0.29fast5f+0.02fast6f+0.15slow7f+0.10very slow1m+0.07slow1m 1f+0.07par1m 2f+0.16fast1m 3fledfast

Timed runs 2025-10-06 to 2026-06-25. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf form3lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 75)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“second, challenged before final 1f, edged ahead post”

#8 AULIS HELD-UP

DRAW 5 · OR 78 · Conor Whiteley / Tina Jackson

MARKET 140 · the market rates it a 1% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−

80.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

8th on the figures, 4pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

80.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 90

Official mark (OR)

78 · last won off 77

Record at today's distance

1 win from 8 tries · below market expectation (0.6)

Days since last run

20

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 107.2% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 8 places on the course scale (SOUTHWELL 21st → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 80.5 last run (SOUTHWELL · 5 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 4 · 1m3f22y · rated 744thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 771stClass 5 · 1m4f22y · rated 902ndClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 832ndClass 5 · 1m6f22y · rated 81

Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tina Jackson · 103 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company2/336.1%0.480/80.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days6/3318.2%1.31/128.3%0.59

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)1/812.5%1.050/10.0%0.0

On the all-weather (small sample)1/812.5%1.050/20.0%0.0

In fields of 12-15 (small sample)1/234.3%0.510/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.0 demand

The rider

Conor Whiteley · last 14 days: 2/15 · at Newcastle: A/E 2.22 (n21)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields4th of 11

+0.36 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 11

+0.36s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 11

107.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 11

7.20 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

5 Jul 26Southwell1m3f23yStd46th8080.5True37.5 +0.13104.1+0.32

8 Jun 26Pontefract1m4fGood44th82—True36.4 -0.63103.6+0.23

16 Oct 24Kempton Park1m3fStandard / Slow—2nd——True38.7 +0.34106.4+0.28

4 Sep 24Southwell1m4f14yStd51st7772True41.0 +1.64114.0—

23 Aug 24Newmarket1m4fGood42nd7575True39.5 +0.00104.6+0.47

30 Jul 24Yarmouth1m6f17yGd/Frm52nd7472True39.5 +0.67110.6+0.50

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.59slow2f+0.90slow3f+0.92par4f+0.90par5f+0.87par6f+0.84par7f+0.81par1m+0.86par1m 1f+0.78par1m 2f+1.05slow1m 3f+1.91very slow

Timed runs 2024-07-30 to 2026-07-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs HAVEYOUMISSEDME (read through SAY WHAT YOU SEE, NORTHWEST PASSAGE) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs AUSTRIAN THEORY (IRE) (read through NORTHWEST PASSAGE, SAY WHAT YOU SEE, RAULIN) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · thin Timeform history (2 figures)

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (2.22x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“held up, headway 3f out, weakened approaching final 1f”

#9 LIGHTNING TIGER (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 3 · OR 75 · Paddy Bradley / Charlie Fellowes

MARKET 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−

79 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

9th on the figures, 5.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

79 · ranked #9 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 71

Record at today's distance

1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)

Days since last run

44

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 108.78% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 20 places on the course scale (CATTERICK BRIDGE 33rd → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 78 last run (CATTERICK BRIDGE · 11 Jun 26)

Headgear

First-time hood

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 4 · 1m5f198y · rated 754thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 834thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 794thClass 3 · 1m6f · rated 791stClass 5 · 1m4f22y · rated 83

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Charlie Fellowes · 557 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On the all-weather27/20213.4%0.845/4012.5%1.23

In Class 4-5 company30/27510.9%0.859/6813.2%1.22

At this time of year (Q3)27/17815.2%1.123/1915.8%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 11f+ trips6/619.8%0.520/120.0%0.0

Above their last winning mark7/6410.9%0.731/175.9%0.45

In fields of 12-156/1195.0%0.511/185.6%0.64

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)1/195.3%0.270/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.0 demand

The rider

Paddy Bradley · last 14 days: 2/15 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.65 (n13) · with this yard: A/E 1.46 (n58)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields7th of 11

+0.04 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 11

+0.29s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 11

108.8%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length4th of 11

7.18 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jun 26Catterick Bridge1m5f192yGd/Sft44th7678True37.0 -0.38104.3+0.25

12 May 26Lingfield1m4fStd44th7777True40.1 +0.00112.6+0.30

18 Apr 26Thirsk1m4fGood44th7774True39.6 +0.93109.0+0.45

6 Jun 25Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Frm55th——True39.1 -0.36109.7+0.17

8 May 25Chelmsford City1m2fSlow55th——True38.1 -0.45103.5+0.26

27 Mar 25Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd/Slow35th———40.5 +0.50113.6+0.31—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.70par2f+0.80par3f+0.62par4f+0.55par5f+0.60par6f+0.64slow7f+0.61slow1m+0.54fast1m 1f+0.49par1m 2f+0.64par1m 3f+0.68par1m 4f+0.63par1m 5f+0.82slow1m 6f+1.26very slow

Timed runs 2025-03-27 to 2026-06-11. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs MOLINARI (IRE) (read through GIBSIDE, COUGAR, DON SIMON, PRINCE ACHILLE) ≈ +5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs AUSTRIAN THEORY (IRE) (read through EPICTETUS, ROGUE IMPACT) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs HAVEYOUMISSEDME (read through RELOCAL, MADE ALL, PRINCE ACHILLE, SIXPACK) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs JINDRI (IRE) (read through TWILIGHT MOON, RED TRAIL) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

4lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 71)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“waited with, in touch halfway, outpaced from 2f out, no chance final 1f”

#10 JINDRI (IRE) MID

DRAW 13 · OR 73 · Sorin Moldoveanu / Jane Chapple-Hyam

MARKET backed 50 → 42 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

76.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

10th on the figures, 8pts off the top, backed since the morning; a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

76.3 · ranked #10 here · career best 78

Official mark (OR)

73 · last won off 72

Record at today's distance

1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.16)

Days since last run

22

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 105.81% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 14 places on the course scale (CHEPSTOW 27th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 1m4f · rated 745thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 781stClass 5 · 1m4f22y · rated 773rdClass 5 · 1m3f22y · rated 774thClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 78

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jane Chapple-Hyam · 534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Above their last winning mark10/5020.0%1.325/2420.8%1.59

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 12-155/875.7%0.642/306.7%0.63

At this time of year (Q3)14/13910.1%0.893/2114.3%0.7

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)2/1612.5%0.890/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 81 is below the ~83.0 the race demands

The rider

Sorin Moldoveanu · last 14 days: 0/1 · with this yard: A/E 1.53 (n23)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields6th of 11

+0.06 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11

+0.16s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 11

105.8%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length2nd of 11

7.21 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

3 Jul 26Chepstow1m4fGd/Frm52nd7473True39.9 +0.00107.9+0.00

10 Jun 26Kempton Park1m4fSlow45th7574True37.9 -0.08103.9+0.00

20 Nov 25Southwell1m4f14yStd51st7272True37.9 +0.42105.1+0.03

30 Oct 25Southwell1m3f24yStd53rd7373Slow early39.3 +0.58110.1+0.13

14 Aug 25Chelmsford City1m2fSlow53rd——True38.4 +0.09101.7+0.16

4 Dec 24Kempton Park7fStandard / Slow—13th——True38.2 -0.64106.2+0.66

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledslow2fledpar3fledslow4fledslow5fledpar6fledfast7fledfast1mledpar1m 1fledpar1m 2fledpar1m 3f+0.32slow1m 4f+1.18par

Timed runs 2024-12-04 to 2026-07-03. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs LIGHTNING TIGER (IRE) (read through TWILIGHT MOON, RED TRAIL) ≈ -0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.5 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“led, pushed along over 3f out, headed 2f out, left behind by winner final 1f”

#11 AUSTRIAN THEORY (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 4 · OR 72 · Jake Dickson / Tim Easterby

MARKET drifting 42 → 55 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

69 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

11th on the figures, 15.3pts off the top, fit and race-ready; solid late gains (11th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

69 · ranked #11 here · career best 97

Official mark (OR)

72 · last won off 91

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

31

Sectional clock

Last time: 3.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.53% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 1m3f44y · rated 625thClass 4 · 1m2f66y · rated 757thClass 3 · 1m1f176y · rated 709thClass 4 · 1m1f44y · rated 595thClass 4 · 1m1f176y · rated 76

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Newcastle13/1538.5%0.861/283.6%0.41

Over 11f+ trips16/1729.3%0.872/474.3%0.41

In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58

On the all-weather ✦19/2627.3%0.774/567.1%0.77

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~83.0 demand

The rider

Jake Dickson · last 14 days: 4/20 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.85 (n17) · with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n96)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields8th of 11

+0.03 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 11

+0.33s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed11th of 11

101.5%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length8th of 11

7.00 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

24 Jun 26Carlisle1m3f39yGd/Frm48th7476True40.7 +0.2395.3+0.42

12 Jun 26York1m2f56yGood45th7474True39.4 +0.05105.7+0.21

28 May 26Ripon1m1f170yGood37th7788.5True38.6 -0.40102.5—

15 May 26Hamilton Park1m1f35yGood49th7974True39.7 -0.15101.4-0.04

16 Apr 26Ripon1m1f170yGd/Sft45th8080True37.9 -0.6099.8+0.11

18 Sep 25Ayr1m2fGd/Sft22nd8086True38.5 +1.02104.5+0.96

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.66very slow2f+0.62par3f+0.64par4f+0.74par5f+0.91par6f+1.09fast7f+1.16fast1m+1.00slow1m 1f+0.82very slow1m 2f+1.73very slow1m 3f+3.05very slow

Timed runs 2025-09-18 to 2026-06-24. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs OURO PRETO (FR) (read through TROJAN SUN, MAO SHANG WONG, URBAN ROAD, QITAAL) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LIGHTNING TIGER (IRE) (read through EPICTETUS, ROGUE IMPACT) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs HAVEYOUMISSEDME (read through TROJAN SUN, INAPPROPRIATE, LONDONER, MAO SHANG WONG) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs AULIS (read through NORTHWEST PASSAGE, SAY WHAT YOU SEE, RAULIN) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

19lb below his last winning mark (72 today vs 91)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, lost place approaching 3f out, beaten over 1f out”

#12 OURO PRETO (FR) HELD-UP

DRAW 7 · OR 70 · Aiden Brookes / Iain Jardine

MARKET 290 · the market rates it a 0% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−

67.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

12th on the figures, 17pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; a genuine turn of foot — 9th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

67.3 · ranked #12 here · career best 75

Official mark (OR)

70 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

20

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 105.21% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 5 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

9thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 647thClass 5 · 1m6f22y · rated 759thClass 4 · 1m7f198y · rated 637thClass 3 · 1m3f22y · rated 67

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Iain Jardine · 1198 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Andrew Mullen, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up, off a judgement-rated last figure

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Newcastle ✦24/22110.9%1.111/7913.9%1.52

In fields of 12-1516/1918.4%1.185/4311.6%1.4

On the all-weather ✦34/30911.0%1.0318/11915.1%1.35

Coming back after 15 to 45 days31/4167.5%0.8117/14012.1%1.32

At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.997/4117.1%1.26

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 11f+ trips16/12912.4%1.142/365.6%0.63

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~83.0 the race demands

The rider

Aiden Brookes · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.9 (n181) · with this yard: A/E 1.56 (n17)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields9th of 11

+0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11

+0.19s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed9th of 11

105.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length9th of 11

6.97 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

5 Jul 26Ayr1m2fGood49th7275True40.6 +0.72108.4+0.23

15 Jun 26Carlisle1m6f32yGood57th7572—37.9 +0.92100.0+0.45

30 May 26Chester1m7f196yGood49th7979True36.4 -0.86105.5+0.06

15 May 26Hamilton Park1m3f15yGood37th8282True39.0 -0.71106.9+0.01

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.04very slow2f+1.37very slow3f+1.44slow4f+1.53par5f+1.31par6f+1.22par7f+1.12fast1m+0.78fast1m 1f+0.97par1m 2f+1.69slow

Timed runs 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-05. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs AUSTRIAN THEORY (IRE) (read through TROJAN SUN, MAO SHANG WONG, URBAN ROAD, QITAAL) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs HAVEYOUMISSEDME (read through TROJAN SUN, MAO SHANG WONG, BELIEVITANDUCAN, HUMBLE SPARK) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MOLINARI (IRE) (read through IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN, CISCO DISCO) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formOnly 1 run at this distance

LTO comment

“dwelt, shaken up 2f out, no response”

#13 MOLINARI (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 10 · OR 68 · Billy Garritty / Martin Todhunter

MARKET drifting 24 → 85 · the market rates it a 1% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

58.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

13th on the figures, 26pts off the top, fit and race-ready; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

58.3 · ranked #13 here · career best 80

Official mark (OR)

68 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 8 tries

Days since last run

36

Sectional clock

Last time: 3.6s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 105.42% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 5 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 484thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 7110thClass 4 · 1m4f88y · rated 562ndClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 743rdClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 77

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Martin Todhunter · 84 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 11.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company1/482.1%0.220/110.0%0.0

At Newcastle0/140.0%0.0—

Over 11f+ trips4/517.8%0.720/170.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/3710.8%0.890/100.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)2/1910.5%0.830/30.0%0.0

On the all-weather (small sample)0/170.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

In fields of 12-15 (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~83.0 the race demands

The rider

Billy Garritty · last 14 days: 1/18 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n216) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields11th of 11

-0.29 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 11

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed8th of 11

105.4%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length10th of 11

6.90 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Ayr1m2fSoft48th6973.5Fast early37.2 -0.2298.6+0.38

13 Dec 25Newcastle1m2f42ySlow54th7069.5True38.1 -0.73105.7+0.34

7 Nov 25Newcastle1m4f98ySlow410th7080.5True38.3 -0.0498.2-0.03

6 Nov 25Newcastle1m2f42ySlow52nd7065.5True38.7 -0.36111.3-0.22

14 Oct 25Newcastle1m2f42yStd53rd7063True40.1 +0.00115.9-0.01

4 Oct 25Newcastle1m2f42ySlow47th7373.5True37.1 -0.41102.8+0.36

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.34slow2f+1.61fast3f+1.46fast4f+1.17fast5f+1.27par6f+1.07fast7f+0.99slow1m+0.76very slow1m 1f+1.52very slow1m 2f+3.13very slow

Timed runs 2025-10-04 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs LIGHTNING TIGER (IRE) (read through GIBSIDE, COUGAR, DON SIMON, PRINCE ACHILLE) ≈ -5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs OURO PRETO (FR) (read through IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN, CISCO DISCO) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs AUSTRIAN THEORY (IRE) (read through MACHETE, MIDNIGHT LION, INAPPROPRIATE, NATURALIA) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs HAVEYOUMISSEDME (read through MACHETE, INAPPROPRIATE, NATZOR, BEARWITH) ≈ +0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“held up, headway 2f out, not sustain effort”