BUILT 12:50 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Standard to Slow
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
sprints (5-7f)
113
26.5%
55.8%
28.3%
58.4%
non-handicaps
65
35.4%
55.4%
35.4%
63.1%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
STAR MARTINI (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (73% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (87% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, MIRZIMAAN (IRE) leads on 82, 5pts clear of ROTELLE — backed since the morning. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is CHAN NOIR — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes MIRZIMAAN (IRE) the 37% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 10
MIRZIMAAN (IRE)
OR · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET backed 3.7 → 2.68 · the market rates it a 37% chance
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (82.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 11
ROTELLE
OR · Paddy Bradley / Charlie Fellowes
MARKET backed 8 → 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (77.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 13
MIND THOSE STEPS
OR · Andrew Mullen / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 18 → 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (76.0)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1MIRZIMAAN (IRE)net +10figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, yard hot
2ROTELLEnet +7figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, fits the winner profile on market position
3CHAN NOIRnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. ROTELLE is the one to beat it — an edge MIRZIMAAN (IRE) lacks: fits the winner profile on market position.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 30% · front-runners 26% (188 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, uphill finish — a true stamina test. Draw: Straight course (5f-1m, the only AW straight mile in Britain): slight LOW edge at 5f-6f, shifting to a HIGH-draw (stands-side) advantage towards 7f-1m — on the straight mile stalls 1-2 run well below par while higher/stands-side draws outperform. Winners’ energy signature: 49.75% spent early (band 48.92–50.39%, 298 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.26s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
15 similar races at NEWCASTLE, 5.5-6.5f, 2yo non-handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (73% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (87% from the first three favourites). 0% won last time out, 53% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
60% 15-45d
20% first run
13% within 14d
Market
47% 2nd favourite
40% favourite
13% 4th+ in the market
LTO form
53% placed last time
27% unplaced last time
20% first run
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 14 runners · stalls 1–14
1234567891011121314
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–14).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MIND THOSE STEPSHELD-UP51.5%95.8held up without the late gear (9th of 9 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ROTELLEMID48.4%103.2a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
MIRZIMAAN (IRE)HELD-UP49.5%101.4solid late gains (4th of 9 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CHAN NOIRHELD-UP47.7%105.0the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
ASANDERHELD-UP48.3%98.9one-paced late — 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
FANTASY FORCE (IRE)HELD-UP49.4%101.4solid late gains (4th of 9 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GOLD KEY (IRE)———-
ON GOLDEN POND (IRE)———-
FRONTIER LEGEND———-
MOLLISHA (IRE)———-
ONE SHOT KODI (IRE)MID51.3%102.2the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
STAR MARTINI (IRE)FRONT49.5%101.0the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
ODEGAARDMID50.3%98.6one-paced late — 8th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SUENICORA STAR———-
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
STAR MARTINI (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.18s off the field’s best
STAR MARTINI (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1MIRZIMAAN (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 10 · OR · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET backed 3.7 → 2.68 · the market rates it a 37% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 5pts clear of the next, backed since the morning; solid late gains (4th of 9 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (13.49)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.44% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 6 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Boughey · 1381 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 9-10f trips
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦70/37918.5%1.0120/7526.7%1.25
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)65/39616.4%1.077/3718.9%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)11/7215.3%0.772/633.3%1.28
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 17/57· at Newcastle: A/E 1 (n205)· with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n692)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 9
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph9th of 9
+0.86s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 9
101.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 9
7.72 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Newbury6fGd/Frm21st——True41.2 +0.64102.0—
15 May 26Newmarket6fGood213th——True39.4 -0.80100.9+0.86
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formProven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (82.0)Improving fast — last run rated 82, 27pts above his recent average of 54.5Only 2 runs at this distance
LTO comment
“bumped start, held up, headway wide 2f out, led final 1f, stayed on well”
#2ROTELLEMID
DRAW 11 · OR · Paddy Bradley / Charlie Fellowes
MARKET backed 8 → 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 5pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (7.6)
Days since last run
108
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.18% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 13 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 5f · rated 77
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Fellowes · 557 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips10/1486.8%0.577/4117.1%1.78
On the all-weather27/20213.4%0.845/4012.5%1.23
In Class 4-5 company30/27510.9%0.859/6813.2%1.22
At this time of year (Q3)27/17815.2%1.123/1915.8%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-156/1195.0%0.511/185.6%0.64
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)1/195.3%0.270/10.0%0.0
Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample)1/137.7%0.641/911.1%1.14
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Paddy Bradley · last 14 days: 2/15· at Newcastle: A/E 0.65 (n13)· with this yard: A/E 1.46 (n58)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 9
+0.37 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.7 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 9
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 9
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 9
7.40 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-08 to 2026-04-08. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formYet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (77.0)Only 1 run at this distanceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, shaken up over 1f out, upsides final 1f, asserted close home”
#3MIND THOSE STEPSHELD-UP
DRAW 13 · OR · Andrew Mullen / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 18 → 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (3.8)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle13/1538.5%0.861/283.6%0.41
In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58
On the all-weather ✦19/2627.3%0.774/567.1%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)4/676.0%0.70/120.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 1/23· at Newcastle: A/E 0.98 (n361)· with this yard: A/E 2.23 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 9
-0.21 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.3 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph1st of 9
-0.01s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 2
Finish · closing speed9th of 9
95.8%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 9
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood21st——Fast early43.0 -0.1794.3-0.01
25 Apr 26Ripon6fGood43rd——True39.6 -0.2597.4+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-04-25 to 2026-05-17. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formProven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (76.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, lost place before halfway, progress 2f out, led over 1f out, closed down final 1f, just held on”
#4CHAN NOIRHELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR · 9-5 · −7lb claim = 8-12 carried · Sorin Moldoveanu / Jane Chapple-Hyam
MARKET 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 10pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (7.4)
Days since last run
30
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.0% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 13 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 72
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jane Chapple-Hyam · 534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips4/626.5%0.674/2218.2%1.57
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-155/875.7%0.642/306.7%0.63
At this time of year (Q3)14/13910.1%0.893/2114.3%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)2/1612.5%0.890/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Sorin Moldoveanu · last 14 days: 0/1· with this yard: A/E 1.53 (n23)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 9
+0.79 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph5th of 9
+0.32s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 9
105.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 9
7.57 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Nottingham6f18yGd/Frm51st——True41.7 +0.79105.0+0.32
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.21slow2f+0.11very slow3fledslow4fledpar5fledvery fast6fledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-06-25 to 2026-06-25. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formYet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, disputed lead halfway, every chance under 2f out, asserted final 1f, ridden out”
#5FANTASY FORCE (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR · M. P. Sheehy / Adrian Keatley
MARKET drifting 4.2 → 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
71FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 11pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; solid late gains (4th of 9 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
71 · ranked #5 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
52
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.44% (holds late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Keatley · 421 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: with a new jockey booked, in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)18/11615.5%1.544/1526.7%1.69
On the all-weather7/7010.0%0.868/3225.0%1.6
At Newcastle6/3218.8%1.394/1723.5%1.49
In Class 4-5 company ✦25/16814.9%1.1813/5822.4%1.45
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips22/14115.6%1.264/567.1%0.6
In fields of 12-157/719.9%1.161/224.5%0.63
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
M. P. Sheehy · last 14 days: 1/7· at Newcastle: A/E 0 (n9)· with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n60)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 9
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph4th of 9
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 9
101.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 9
7.67 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jun 26Ripon5fGood45th——Slow early41.2 -0.22103.3—
13 May 26York5fGd/Sft23rd——True41.3 +0.5199.6+0.25
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-13 to 2026-06-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formOnly 2 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.96 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, effort when short of room over 1f out, no chance after”
#6STAR MARTINI (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 9 · OR · Darragh Keenan / Brian Ellison
MARKET drifting 5.8 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
71.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 11pts off the top, dropping in class; a yard out of form.
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 2 · 7f · rated 71
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Ellison · 771 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)27/23611.4%1.232/219.5%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-158/1336.0%1.11/452.2%0.29
Coming back after 15 to 45 days29/26411.0%1.084/894.5%0.54
In Class 4-5 company30/27111.1%1.25/1074.7%0.65
Over 5-6f trips ✦15/1947.7%0.944/685.9%0.74
On the all-weather22/2379.3%1.055/806.2%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 69 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Darragh Keenan · last 14 days: 4/22· at Newcastle: A/E 1.15 (n41)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 9
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 9
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 9
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 9
7.84 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm24th———40.1 +0.02101.0+0.18
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fled2fled3fled4fled5fled6f+0.077f+0.33
Timed runs 2026-06-20 to 2026-06-20. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formDrops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led until ran green over 1f out, no extra only late”
#7ASANDERHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR · Billy Garritty / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET drifting 21 → 130 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
64.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 18pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; one-paced late — 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
64.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.89% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 15 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 7f88y · rated 64
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1245 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1515/2316.5%0.892/653.1%0.49
On the all-weather ✦19/2627.3%0.696/748.1%0.68
At Newcastle7/987.1%0.642/258.0%0.69
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/5287.6%0.8210/1626.2%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 56 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Billy Garritty · last 14 days: 1/18· at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n216)· with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n456)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 9
-0.30 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.0 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph8th of 9
+0.61s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 9
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 9
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-04 to 2026-07-04. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formDrops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runs
#8ODEGAARDMID
DRAW 14 · OR · Aiden Brookes / Micky Hammond
MARKET 460 · the market rates it a 0% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
57.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 25pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; one-paced late — 8th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Micky Hammond · 326 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company6/857.1%1.261/147.1%2.68
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle2/523.8%0.930/70.0%0.0
In fields of 12-151/521.9%0.450/140.0%0.0
On the all-weather5/1034.9%1.061/362.8%0.56
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 5-6f trips (small sample)1/205.0%1.380/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 57 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Aiden Brookes · last 14 days: 1/13· at Newcastle: A/E 0.9 (n181)· with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n319)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 9
-0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph7th of 9
+0.38s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 9
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 9
7.63 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newcastle6fSlow44th——True40.6 +0.0098.9—
5 Jun 26Musselburgh7f15yGood45th——True38.5 -0.2498.3+0.38
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-05 to 2026-06-25. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Improving fast — last run rated 57, 11pts above his recent average of 45.5Only 2 runs at this distance
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden over 2f out, not quicken”
#9ONE SHOT KODI (IRE)MID
DRAW 12 · OR · Oisin McSweeney / Kevin Ryan
MARKET 170 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
38.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 44pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
38.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 38
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
60
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.2% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 18 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 4 · 6f · rated 38
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Ryan · 1212 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle ✦17/9917.2%1.118/4318.6%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/395.1%0.54
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)7/927.6%0.852/1910.5%0.98
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 38 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Oisin McSweeney · last 14 days: 2/11· at Newcastle: A/E 1.04 (n90)· with this yard: A/E 1.72 (n57)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 9
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph6th of 9
+0.35s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 9
102.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 9
7.68 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 May 26Redcar5f217yGd/Frm48th——True40.6 +0.00102.2+0.35
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-26 to 2026-05-26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formOnly 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, ridden halfway, weakened over 1f out”
#10GOLD KEY (IRE)
DRAW 7 · OR · Sam James / Kevin Ryan
MARKET 42 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
A yard that scores in today’s conditions; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Ryan · 1212 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle ✦17/9917.2%1.118/4318.6%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/395.1%0.54
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Sam James · last 14 days: 6/19· at Newcastle: A/E 0.69 (n207)· with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n24)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf form
#11ON GOLDEN POND (IRE)
DRAW 4 · OR · David Nolan / Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
MARKET drifting 25 → 55 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
A yard in form; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · 304 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle3/358.6%0.682/2010.0%3.23
On the all-weather3/595.1%0.474/3411.8%2.45
In fields of 12-156/5311.3%1.663/1816.7%2.15
At this time of year (Q3)10/8012.5%1.553/1618.8%2.04
In Class 4-5 company7/897.9%1.013/3010.0%1.84
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
David Nolan · last 14 days: 0/9· at Newcastle: A/E 1.01 (n279)· with this yard: A/E 1.22 (n119)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf form
#12FRONTIER LEGEND
DRAW 3 · OR · 9-1 · −5lb claim = 8-10 carried · Rhys Elliott / Michael Dods
MARKET 220 · the market rates it a 0% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Little measured either way — unexposed on our reads.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1255 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-1511/2484.4%0.636/5012.0%1.65
In Class 4-5 company56/56010.0%0.9820/15712.7%1.24
On the all-weather24/2519.6%0.938/6811.8%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle14/1658.5%0.861/362.8%0.35
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 1/25· at Newcastle: A/E 0.66 (n141)· with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n140)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf form
#13MOLLISHA (IRE)
DRAW 6 · OR · Ben Robinson / Brian Ellison
MARKET 85 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
A double-figure price; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Ellison · 771 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)27/23611.4%1.232/219.5%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-158/1336.0%1.11/452.2%0.29
In Class 4-5 company30/27111.1%1.25/1074.7%0.65
Over 5-6f trips ✦15/1947.7%0.944/685.9%0.74
On the all-weather22/2379.3%1.055/806.2%0.75
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Ben Robinson · last 14 days: 0/11· at Newcastle: A/E 1.27 (n223)· with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n550)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formStable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runs
#14SUENICORA STAR
DRAW 8 · OR · Faye McManoman / Brian Ellison
MARKET 170 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
A double-figure price; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Ellison · 771 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)27/23611.4%1.232/219.5%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-158/1336.0%1.11/452.2%0.29
In Class 4-5 company30/27111.1%1.25/1074.7%0.65
Over 5-6f trips ✦15/1947.7%0.944/685.9%0.74
On the all-weather22/2379.3%1.055/806.2%0.75
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Faye McManoman · last 14 days: 2/7· at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n130)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n15)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formStable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runs