Class 4 · 1m · Standard to Slow · FIELD MEDIAN OR 80.5
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 14 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:50 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Standard to Slow
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
miles (7-9f)
49
22.4%
49%
22.4%
42.9%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, TASEVER should reach the front first — roughly 1.2 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) leads on 91, 0pts clear of PANDEMONIUM (IRE) — runs the dominant winning style here. The case against the top pick: tends to burn early and empty out. The shape danger is VIPER — just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late. The market sees it differently, making ZATSGOOD the 22% favourite — a horse our figures rate 4th.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 12
VINCENT ROCKS (IRE)
OR 84 · Billy Garritty / Ruth Carr
MARKET 16 · the market rates it a 6% chance
91.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−The top rating in this field (91.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 9
PANDEMONIUM (IRE)
OR 86 · Jack Mitchell / Simon & Ed Crisford
MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance
91.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (91.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 14
HOT CASH
OR 85 · Rose Dawes / Jack Channon
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
87.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (87.3)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.25)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1HOT CASHnet +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard hot, fits the winner profile on recency
2PANDEMONIUM (IRE)net +8figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on recency, meets much weaker company by the marks
3ZOWAL (FR)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) carries tends to burn early and empty out. HOT CASH is the one to beat it — an edge VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) lacks: prominent in the betting.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
REGALIAN FIGURE #7
drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (6 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 28% · hold-up closers 26% (162 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Stiff, uphill finish — a true stamina test. Winners’ energy signature: 49.13% spent early (band 48.2–50.05%, 257 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.34s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
30 similar races at NEWCASTLE, 7.0-9.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites). 7% won last time out, 27% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
40% 4yo
23% 6yo+
23% 5yo
Last ran
70% 15-45d
17% within 14d
10% 91d+
Market
57% 4th+ in the market
23% favourite
10% 3rd favourite
LTO form
63% unplaced last time
27% placed last time
7% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 14 runners · stalls 1–14
1234567891011121314
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–14).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
HOT CASHPROMINENT50.6%102.4concedes ~1.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
VINCENT ROCKS (IRE)MID50.4%97.4held up without the late gear (14th of 14 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
REGALIANHELD-UP50.2%100.4one-paced late — 6th of 14 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ROGUE ENCOREPROMINENT50.4%99.3concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
ZATSGOODMID48.3%102.6the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SHAMALZA (IRE)PROMINENT49.9%100.3just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
PANDEMONIUM (IRE)PROMINENT49.6%100.1concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
ON THE RIVERMID49.9%99.7one-paced late — 10th of 14 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ZOWAL (FR)MID49.7%100.2one-paced late — 8th of 14 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SOVEREIGN VIEWMID49.7%100.5solid late gains (5th of 14 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
VIPERPROMINENT49.0%103.1just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
SIMON PIERRE (FR)MID50.6%98.1held up without the late gear (13th of 14 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
TASEVERFRONT50.2%99.5the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
VICTORY ACEMID49.6%100.7solid late gains (4th of 14 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
TASEVERFRONTtypically ~2.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
VIPERPROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
SHAMALZA (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
HOT CASHPROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
ROGUE ENCOREPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best
PANDEMONIUM (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
measured on their own past openings, TASEVER should reach the front first — roughly 1.2 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1VINCENT ROCKS (IRE)MID
DRAW 12 · OR 84 · Billy Garritty / Ruth Carr
MARKET 16 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
91.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, runs the dominant winning style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
91.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
84 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (2.73)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ruth Carr · 1266 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)37/35310.5%1.15/3315.2%1.54
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle16/14710.9%1.23/496.1%0.65
In Class 4-5 company48/4879.9%1.148/1415.7%0.66
Over 7-8f trips50/45511.0%1.1811/1527.2%0.68
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦38/4638.2%0.9511/1537.2%0.74
In fields of 12-1521/2458.6%1.144/755.3%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92 demand
The rider
Billy Garritty · last 14 days: 1/18· at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n216)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 14
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 14
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed14th of 14
97.4%
One-paced late
Stride length11th of 14
7.09 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 1.75L ahead · OR 82 v 82 · race median 80 (today 80.5)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-10.9L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs REGALIAN (read through EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, CLASSIC ENCOUNTER, MILTEYE, PRINCIPALITY) ≈ -5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VICTORY ACE (read through SAILTHISSHIPALONE, INTRUSIVELY) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HOT CASH (read through LEADENHALL, PRINCIPALITY, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, STERLING KNIGHT) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROGUE ENCORE (read through FIRST AMBITION, SIR PAUL RAMSEY, LEADENHALL, HELM ROCK) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (91.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, went on 2f out, headed inside final 1f, kept on”
#2PANDEMONIUM (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 9 · OR 86 · Jack Mitchell / Simon & Ed Crisford
MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
91.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), prominent in the betting; concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
91.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
86 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.58)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon & Ed Crisford · 869 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)59/29120.3%1.167/3321.2%1.4
In fields of 12-1511/1467.5%0.594/3212.5%1.35
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦63/33318.9%1.0814/8516.5%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦45/29615.2%0.947/7010.0%0.65
In Class 4-5 company ✦87/44619.5%0.9913/9913.1%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)2/345.9%0.314/757.1%2.08
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92 demand
The rider
Jack Mitchell · last 14 days: 1/25· at Newcastle: A/E 0.68 (n102)· with this yard: A/E 1.17 (n140)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 14
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 14
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 14
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 14
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh1m208yGd/Frm36th8788True39.2 +0.12102.7+0.03
6 Jun 26Musselburgh1m208yGood22nd8584True39.0 +0.00105.0+0.08
Timed runs 2025-09-17 to 2026-06-30. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
6 Jun 26 · 1m208y · Good — finished 2nd vs 6th, 15.45L ahead · OR 85 v 75 · race median 84 (today 80.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+13.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs REGALIAN (read through THUNDER WONDER, MARHABA GHAIYYATH) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ON THE RIVER (read through DWINDLING FUNDS, TWO B TANNED) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SOVEREIGN VIEW (read through MAGICAL MERLOT, ST ANTON, BLUE TO BLUE) ≈ -0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formProven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (91.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, shaken up over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, carried head bit awkwardly, weakened final 100 yds”
#3HOT CASHPROMINENT
DRAW 14 · OR 85 · Rose Dawes / Jack Channon
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
87.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 3.7pts off the top, prominent in the betting; concedes ~1.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
87.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 85
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.25)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.42% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 10lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 80.5 vs 90.5 last run (SANDOWN PARK · 13 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Channon · 757 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, when the yard has won in the last 3 days
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦45/24118.7%1.3614/8117.3%1.38
In Class 4-5 company ✦57/30019.0%1.2215/9216.3%1.21
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)0/20.0%0.01/520.0%1.9
At Newcastle (small sample)6/1540.0%1.792/633.3%1.76
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92 demand
The rider
Rose Dawes · last 14 days: 0/7· at Newcastle: A/E 1.64 (n2)· with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n106)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 14
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 14
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 14
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 14
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Sandown Park1mGood28th8790.5True38.4 -0.3295.5+0.11
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Sft22nd8589Fast early40.1 +0.33103.9+0.02
16 May 26Thirsk1mGood32nd8383True40.1 +0.31103.7+0.07
Timed runs 2025-09-11 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) (read through LEADENHALL, PRINCIPALITY, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, STERLING KNIGHT) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs REGALIAN (read through BACK IN BLACK, ANCIENT ROME, MR SWIVELL, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ZOWAL (FR) (read through HYPERCHROMATIC, LEADENHALL, PRINCIPALITY, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TASEVER (read through JIMMY SPEAKING, CRIMINAL SHORE, WOLF OF BADENOCH, HAVANA PRINCE) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (87.3)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.25)Jockey goes well at this track (1.64x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, shaken up over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”
#4ZATSGOODMID
DRAW 7 · OR 81 · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 4pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance
1 win from 4 tries · below market expectation (0.7)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Boughey · 1381 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 9-10f trips
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark41/21918.7%1.0510/7014.3%0.77
At this time of year (Q3)65/39616.4%1.077/3718.9%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)11/7215.3%0.772/633.3%1.28
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92 demand
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 17/57· at Newcastle: A/E 1 (n205)· with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n692)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 14
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 14
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 14
102.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 14
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-21 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
2 Jul 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 1.75L behind · OR 82 v 82 · race median 80 (today 80.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ROGUE ENCORE (read through SIGNCASTLE CITY, HELM ROCK, FARASI LANE) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ON THE RIVER (read through BILLY MILL, ZOFFANDIA) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 78)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway approaching final 1f, not sustain effort”
#5SOVEREIGN VIEWMID
DRAW 8 · OR 83 · Darragh Keenan / James Tate
MARKET 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
83 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · in line with the market (0.98)
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.51% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Tate · 554 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/14419.4%1.221/234.3%0.33
On the all-weather52/21823.9%1.258/869.3%0.57
Above their last winning mark12/5422.2%1.284/488.3%0.64
In Class 4-5 company58/26022.3%1.2812/9612.5%0.72
Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/17522.3%1.2811/9012.2%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)5/1729.4%1.30/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 88 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
Darragh Keenan · last 14 days: 4/22· at Newcastle: A/E 1.15 (n41)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 14
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 14
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 14
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 14
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Kempton Park1mSlow43rd8383—38.8 +0.1197.6+0.25—
30 May 26Carlisle7f173yGd/Frm46th8484Slow early37.4 +0.07103.5+0.10
28 Aug 25Chelmsford City7fSlow42nd——True39.7 -0.85102.8+0.05
Timed runs 2025-08-28 to 2026-06-29. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs ROGUE ENCORE (read through SAYTARR, MR BALOO, FARASI LANE) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VICTORY ACE (read through KANISHKA, MAGICAL MERLOT) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PANDEMONIUM (IRE) (read through MAGICAL MERLOT, ST ANTON, BLUE TO BLUE) ≈ +0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) (read through FARASI LANE, SAN JUANITO) ≈ +0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (83 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“handy, pushed along under 3f out, carried head bit awkwardly, weakened final 1f”
#6VIPERPROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 80 · Ben Robinson / Brian Ellison
MARKET 11.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 8pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
80 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (3.55)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.07% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Ellison · 771 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)27/23611.4%1.232/219.5%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-158/1336.0%1.11/452.2%0.29
Coming back after 15 to 45 days29/26411.0%1.084/894.5%0.54
In Class 4-5 company30/27111.1%1.25/1074.7%0.65
Over 7-8f trips15/1649.1%1.125/816.2%0.74
On the all-weather22/2379.3%1.055/806.2%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 83 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
Ben Robinson · last 14 days: 0/11· at Newcastle: A/E 1.27 (n223)· with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n550)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 14
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 14
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 14
103.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 14
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle7f14ySlow41st——True40.0 +0.35100.7—
22 May 26Pontefract6fGd/Sft42nd——True37.5 +0.24104.1+0.00
1 May 26Newcastle7f14ySlow43rd——Slow early38.9 -0.01106.7+0.00
29 Mar 26Doncaster7fGd/Sft47th——True37.6 -0.05100.8+0.45
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
SIMON PIERRE (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 2.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
29 Mar 26 · 7f · Gd/Sft — finished 7th vs 10th, 2.1L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+2.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, shaken up over 2f out, asserted over 1f out, driven out”
#7REGALIANHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 10 · OR 83 · David Nolan / Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
MARKET 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
79.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 11.7pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
79.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
83 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · below market expectation (0.67)
Days since last run
30
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.42% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 10lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 80.5 vs 91 last run (NEWCASTLE · 25 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · 304 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle3/358.6%0.682/2010.0%3.23
On the all-weather3/595.1%0.474/3411.8%2.45
In fields of 12-156/5311.3%1.663/1816.7%2.15
At this time of year (Q3)10/8012.5%1.553/1618.8%2.04
In Class 4-5 company7/897.9%1.013/3010.0%1.84
Coming back after 15 to 45 days9/8410.7%1.25/4411.4%1.53
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92 demand
The rider
David Nolan · last 14 days: 0/9· at Newcastle: A/E 1.01 (n279)· with this yard: A/E 1.22 (n119)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 14
+0.29 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph14th of 14
+0.48s
Slow away in 4 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 14
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 14
7.51 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow28th8591True39.6 -0.1595.5—
19 Jun 26Redcar1mGood36th8587True41.1 +0.4098.4+0.46
Timed runs 2025-05-17 to 2026-06-25. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) (read through EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, CLASSIC ENCOUNTER, MILTEYE, PRINCIPALITY) ≈ +5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROGUE ENCORE (read through DINGLE, DOSMAN, NIKOVO, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ +5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PANDEMONIUM (IRE) (read through THUNDER WONDER, MARHABA GHAIYYATH) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HOT CASH (read through BACK IN BLACK, ANCIENT ROME, MR SWIVELL, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayLost roughly 2.1 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, under pressure over 3f out, no impression”
#8ON THE RIVERMID
DRAW 3 · OR 78 · Sean Dylan Bowen / Harriet Bethell
MARKET 60 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
77.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 13.7pts off the top, proven at the trip; one-paced late — 10th of 14 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
77.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 36 tries · beats market expectation (1.27)
Days since last run
44
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.7% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 13 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Harriet Bethell · 218 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle4/2218.2%1.512/922.2%1.69
On the all-weather7/4914.3%1.113/1618.8%1.36
In Class 4-5 company14/8416.7%1.25/2817.9%1.29
Coming back after 15 to 45 days14/8416.7%1.176/3119.4%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark2/1711.8%0.830/40.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)8/6512.3%0.870/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 90 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
Sean Dylan Bowen · last 14 days: 1/17· at Newcastle: A/E 1.77 (n30)· with this yard: A/E 2.93 (n13)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 14
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 14
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 14
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 14
7.10 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Nottingham1m75ySoft45th7980True37.4 -0.03100.9+0.24
28 Mar 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 5th vs 6th, 2.75L ahead · OR 78 v 77 · race median 85 (today 80.5)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+10.4L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs TASEVER (read through JIMMY SPEAKING, WOLF OF BADENOCH, ONE NIGHT THUNDER, ALREET CHA) ≈ +4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PANDEMONIUM (IRE) (read through DWINDLING FUNDS, TWO B TANNED) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROGUE ENCORE (read through LEADENHALL, BARLEY, ZRYAN, ANGEL HUNTER) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VICTORY ACE (read through SAILTHISSHIPALONE, INTRUSIVELY, BOWOOD) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (78 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (36 tries, beats market expectation at 1.27)Jockey goes well at this track (1.77x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, effort 2f out, little impression”
#9ZOWAL (FR)MID
DRAW 13 · OR 77 · Dougie Costello / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET 44 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
77FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 14pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; one-paced late — 8th of 14 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
77 · ranked #9 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (2.68)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Sean Quinn · 788 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark17/13912.2%0.868/4916.3%1.61
At Newcastle5/598.5%0.832/1811.1%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1512/1428.5%1.01/372.7%0.37
Over 7-8f trips25/2559.8%0.872/464.3%0.56
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
Dougie Costello · last 14 days: 1/9· at Newcastle: A/E 0.6 (n59)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 14
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 14
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 14
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length14th of 14
6.89 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Nottingham1m75yGood43rd7776Slow early39.4 +0.02109.3-0.34
Timed runs 2025-07-11 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 30.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
28 Mar 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 6th vs 20th, 31.45L ahead · OR 77 v 86 · race median 85 (today 80.5)
ON THE RIVER · 1 meeting≈ 2.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
28 Mar 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 6th vs 5th, 2.75L behind · OR 77 v 78 · race median 85 (today 80.5)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+13.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HOT CASH (read through HYPERCHROMATIC, LEADENHALL, PRINCIPALITY, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TASEVER (read through ALPHA CAPTURE, BLAZING SON, LOOK BACK SMILING, FLYING FLETCHER) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROGUE ENCORE (read through FIRST AMBITION, URBAN ROAD, LEADENHALL, FLYING FLETCHER) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs REGALIAN (read through DOUBLE PARKED, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, CLASSIC ENCOUNTER, MILTEYE) ≈ +0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formYet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 2.68)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“quickly away, chased leader, ridden 2f out, left behind final 1f”
#10SHAMALZA (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 11 · OR 80 · Callum Hutchinson / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
75.5FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 15.5pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
75.5 · ranked #10 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
80 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · in line with the market (1.01)
Days since last run
30
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1526/20312.8%1.03/506.0%0.41
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)0/90.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 77 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
Callum Hutchinson · last 14 days: 2/19· at Newcastle: A/E 0.58 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields14th of 14
-0.27 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph1st of 14
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 1
Finish · closing speed7th of 14
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length12th of 14
7.04 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm44th——Slow early39.7 -0.27100.3+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-25 to 2026-06-25. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · never met today's rivals
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formYet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.78 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, shaken up 2f out, headed soon after, weakened final 1f”
#11ROGUE ENCOREPROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 81 · C. Horgan / Peter Chapple-Hyam
MARKET 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
73.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 17.3pts off the top, dropping in class; concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
73.7 · ranked #11 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
1 win from 16 tries · below market expectation (0.59)
Days since last run
113
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Peter Chapple-Hyam · 168 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company10/7513.3%1.40/140.0%0.0
At Newcastle1/425.0%2.190/40.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips7/719.9%1.20/190.0%0.0
Coming back after 91 to 180 days1/714.3%1.40/60.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)8/5913.6%1.310/40.0%0.0
On the all-weather4/3910.3%1.470/150.0%0.0
In fields of 12-152/365.6%1.150/110.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92 demand
The rider
C. Horgan · last 14 days: 1/8· at Newcastle: A/E 0.61 (n37)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 14
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 14
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed12th of 14
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 14
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jul 25 · 1m · Slow — finished 2nd vs 9th, 14.25L ahead · OR 82 v 70 · race median 74 (today 80.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+13.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs REGALIAN (read through DINGLE, DOSMAN, NIKOVO, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ -5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ON THE RIVER (read through LEADENHALL, BARLEY, ZRYAN, ANGEL HUNTER) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) (read through FIRST AMBITION, SIR PAUL RAMSEY, LEADENHALL, HELM ROCK) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SOVEREIGN VIEW (read through SAYTARR, MR BALOO, FARASI LANE) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (81 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 6 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden 3f out, weakened from 2f out”
#12VICTORY ACEMIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 73 · M. P. Sheehy / John Butler
MARKET 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 19pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.38)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.68% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 80.5 vs 76 last run (NEWCASTLE · 26 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 894 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: dropping in class, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/1829.3%1.038/2236.4%1.98
On the all-weather45/5078.9%0.9330/12524.0%1.59
In Class 4-5 company18/3355.4%0.7727/12821.1%1.47
Above their last winning mark14/10813.0%0.9416/7720.8%1.34
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/3427.0%0.7723/12019.2%1.33
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
M. P. Sheehy · last 14 days: 1/7· at Newcastle: A/E 0 (n9)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 14
+0.47 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 14
+0.36s
Slow away in 4 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 14
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 14
7.71 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow45th7476True40.1 -0.0794.3—
6 Jun 26Musselburgh1m208yGood26th7584True39.4 +0.38101.5+0.53
6 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow52nd7373True39.1 +0.94102.0+0.12
Timed runs 2025-09-04 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
6 Jun 26 · 1m208y · Good — finished 6th vs 2nd, 15.45L behind · OR 75 v 85 · race median 84 (today 80.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-13.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs VINCENT ROCKS (IRE) (read through SAILTHISSHIPALONE, INTRUSIVELY) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TASEVER (read through CHUZZLEWIT, BOWOOD, CALLIANASSA) ≈ +1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROGUE ENCORE (read through HARRY THE ROGUE, STANAGE, CALLIANASSA, RACINGBREAKS RYDER) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ON THE RIVER (read through SAILTHISSHIPALONE, INTRUSIVELY, BOWOOD) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayLost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, ridden under 3f out, dropped away”
#13SIMON PIERRE (FR)MID
DRAW 1 · OR 77 · Sam James / Gemma Tutty
MARKET 46 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−
68.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 22.3pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
68.7 · ranked #13 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
77 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (5.1)
Days since last run
43
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gemma Tutty · 514 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle5/975.2%0.484/1723.5%3.49
On the all-weather18/17910.1%1.027/3321.2%2.91
In fields of 12-158/948.5%1.163/2114.3%1.86
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2029.9%1.038/6711.9%1.42
In Class 4-5 company22/2289.6%0.99/7611.8%1.37
Over 7-8f trips23/2329.9%1.05/598.5%1.33
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)14/13510.4%0.981/205.0%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
Sam James · last 14 days: 6/19· at Newcastle: A/E 0.69 (n207)· with this yard: A/E 1.87 (n27)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 14
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 14
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed13th of 14
98.1%
One-paced late
Stride length13th of 14
6.95 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Jun 26Chester1m2f70yGd/Sft47th7780True38.8 -0.5093.5+0.08
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-12. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
29 Mar 26 · 7f · Gd/Sft — finished 10th vs 7th, 2.1L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formProven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden 2f out, weakened 1f out”
#14TASEVERFRONT
DRAW 6 · OR 68 · Rhys Elliott / Patrick Morris
MARKET 100 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
63.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
14th on the figures, 27.7pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
63.3 · ranked #14 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 41 tries · below market expectation (0.76)
Days since last run
120
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 26 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Patrick Morris · 466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)1/731.4%0.20/120.0%0.0
In fields of 12-152/504.0%0.760/180.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company ✦7/1424.9%0.682/673.0%0.36
Above their last winning mark ✦7/897.9%0.773/624.8%0.39
At Newcastle11/10510.5%1.092/444.5%0.41
Over 7-8f trips ✦8/1047.7%0.773/644.7%0.53
On the all-weather ✦19/2388.0%0.879/1197.6%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample)1/224.5%0.70/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~92 the race demands
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 1/25· at Newcastle: A/E 0.66 (n141)· with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n31)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 80.5graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 14
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 14
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 14
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 14
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Mar 26Newcastle1mStd57th6966True38.5 -0.2395.2-0.30
21 Mar 26Newcastle1mStd58th6970Slow early39.4 -0.91108.0+0.00
6 Mar 26Newcastle7f14yStd53rd7070True40.0 +0.3095.9+0.15
15 Feb 26Newcastle7f14yStd56th7167.5True40.5 +0.1897.3+0.01
10 Feb 26Newcastle1mStd51st6566True39.6 -0.14100.4+0.40
4 Feb 26Newcastle1mStd62nd6560True38.5 -0.33100.3+0.45
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-02-04 to 2026-03-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
ROGUE ENCORE · 1 meeting≈ 13.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jul 25 · 1m · Slow — finished 9th vs 2nd, 14.25L behind · OR 70 v 82 · race median 74 (today 80.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-13.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ON THE RIVER (read through JIMMY SPEAKING, WOLF OF BADENOCH, ONE NIGHT THUNDER, ALREET CHA) ≈ -4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ZOWAL (FR) (read through ALPHA CAPTURE, BLAZING SON, LOOK BACK SMILING, FLYING FLETCHER) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VICTORY ACE (read through CHUZZLEWIT, BOWOOD, CALLIANASSA) ≈ -1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HOT CASH (read through JIMMY SPEAKING, CRIMINAL SHORE, WOLF OF BADENOCH, HAVANA PRINCE) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 4/31 on the all-weather3lb above his last winning mark (68 today vs 65)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (4 from 29 here)