Class 4 · 1m · Standard to Slow · FIELD MEDIAN OR 78
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 13 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:51 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Standard to Slow
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
miles (7-9f)
49
22.4%
49%
22.4%
42.9%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, FREDDIE STEADY GO should reach the front first — roughly 1.9 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, FIGHT YOUR CORNER (IRE) leads on 88, 1pts clear of FREDDIE STEADY GO — flagged on our watch list. The case against the top pick: a yard out of form and its sectional profile is out of date. The shape danger is PENNY TIME (IRE) — concedes ~1.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — and finds plenty late; often slow away, which can cost the spot. The market sees it differently, making PENNY TIME (IRE) the 19% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
FIGHT YOUR CORNER (IRE)
OR 81 · Billy Loughnane / James Tate
MARKET drifting 4.7 → 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance
88.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 10
FREDDIE STEADY GO
OR 80 · Jonny Peate / Susan Corbett
MARKET drifting 14 → 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
PENNY TIME (IRE)
OR 85 · Jack Nicholls / Hugo Palmer
MARKET backed 6 → 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance
85FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (85)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1PENNY TIME (IRE)net +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here − habitually slow away
2FREDDIE STEADY GOnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
3CALLIANASSA (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency − yard cold
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
FIGHT YOUR CORNER (IRE) carries a yard out of form and its sectional profile is out of date. PENNY TIME (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge FIGHT YOUR CORNER (IRE) lacks: dropping in class.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
ONE NIGHT THUNDER FIGURE #9
Gemma Tutty's runners kept to the same class win 11.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Gemma Tutty's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 11.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
METAL MERCHANT (IRE) FIGURE #10
John Butler's runners dropping in class win 25.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
IZZARI (GER) FIGURE #13
Iain Jardine's runners at Newcastle win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Iain Jardine's runners on the all-weather win 15.1% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
PAL JOEY FIGURE #14
Ben Haslam's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 11.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Ben Haslam's runners on the all-weather win 26.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (4 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 28% · hold-up closers 26% (162 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Stiff, uphill finish — a true stamina test. Winners’ energy signature: 49.13% spent early (band 48.2–50.05%, 257 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.34s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
30 similar races at NEWCASTLE, 7.0-9.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites). 7% won last time out, 27% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
40% 4yo
23% 6yo+
23% 5yo
Last ran
70% 15-45d
17% within 14d
10% 91d+
Market
57% 4th+ in the market
23% favourite
10% 3rd favourite
LTO form
63% unplaced last time
27% placed last time
7% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 13 runners · stalls 1–14
1234567891011121314
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–14).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
METAL MERCHANT (IRE)MID50.8%97.6held up without the late gear (13th of 13 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
FANTASTIC FOXHELD-UP49.0%103.2a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
FIGHT YOUR CORNER (IRE)MID47.5%106.3a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
FREDDIE STEADY GOPROMINENT50.8%99.1the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
CALLIANASSA (IRE)MID49.7%100.8solid late gains (5th of 13 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ONE NIGHT THUNDERPROMINENT50.2%98.6concedes ~2.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
PENNY TIME (IRE)PROMINENT47.9%107.0concedes ~1.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — and finds plenty late; often slow away, which can cost the spot
MR MISTOFFELEES (IRE)HELD-UP49.9%101.0solid late gains (4th of 13 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CALYXOH (IRE)PROMINENT49.8%100.2concedes ~1.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE)MID51.0%97.8held up without the late gear (12th of 13 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
IZZARI (GER)MID50.4%99.4one-paced late — 8th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
PAL JOEYHELD-UP50.5%100.3one-paced late — 6th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
CHUZZLEWITMID50.3%98.2held up without the late gear (11th of 13 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
FREDDIE STEADY GOPROMINENTtypically ~3.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
PENNY TIME (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.23s off the best)
CALYXOH (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best
ONE NIGHT THUNDERPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
measured on their own past openings, FREDDIE STEADY GO should reach the front first — roughly 1.9 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1FIGHT YOUR CORNER (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 81 · Billy Loughnane / James Tate
MARKET drifting 4.7 → 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
88.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, flagged on our watch list; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
88.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (2.31)
Days since last run
185
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.34% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 185 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Tate · 554 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/14419.4%1.221/234.3%0.33
On the all-weather52/21823.9%1.258/869.3%0.57
Above their last winning mark12/5422.2%1.284/488.3%0.64
Coming back after 180 days+5/1338.5%1.911/119.1%0.71
In Class 4-5 company58/26022.3%1.2812/9612.5%0.72
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)5/1729.4%1.30/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 17/57· at Newcastle: A/E 1 (n205)· with this yard: A/E 0.73 (n37)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 13
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 13
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 13
106.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length11th of 13
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Jan 26Kempton Park1mSlow41st7775.5True40.5 +0.59109.4+0.08
28 Dec 25Southwell1m13yStd51st——True37.9 -0.30101.2+0.18
26 Nov 25Newcastle7f14ySlow55th——Slow early40.4 +0.19108.8+0.36
22 Oct 25Kempton Park7fStd53rd——True39.1 +0.38105.9+0.17
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.50very slow2f+0.54very slow3f+0.59slow4f+0.48par5f+0.62fast6f+0.20very fast7f+0.04very fast1mledvery fast
Timed runs 2025-10-22 to 2026-01-21 · last timed run 185 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs MR MISTOFFELEES (IRE) (read through SIGNCASTLE CITY, MIDNIGHT'S DREAM) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Improving fast — last run rated 88, 10pts above his recent average of 77.7Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 185 days offRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, switched early in straight, pushed along soon after, headway under 2f out, stayed on to lead final 100 yds”
#2FREDDIE STEADY GOPROMINENT
DRAW 10 · OR 80 · Jonny Peate / Susan Corbett
MARKET drifting 14 → 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
80 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (49.16)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Susan Corbett
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Jonny Peate · last 14 days: 1/12· at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n161)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 13
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 13
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 13
99.1%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 13
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26York1m177yGood48th8179—39.3 -0.30101.3+0.02
18 May 26Carlisle6f195ySoft41st——Fast early36.7 +0.1298.1-0.07
Timed runs 2026-04-26 to 2026-06-13. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
FANTASTIC FOX · 1 meeting≈ 1.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Jun 26 · 1m177y · Good — finished 8th vs 11th, 2.3L ahead · OR 81 v 85 · race median 79 (today 78)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through PEARL EYE, FRANKIES DREAM) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WALSINGHAM (IRE) (read through HALE END, LEADENHALL, BILLYB, POINT OF CONTACT) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHUZZLEWIT (read through HALE END, BILLYB, EMPIRE OF LIGHT) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) (read through LEADENHALL, CAPITAL GUARANTEE, BILLYB, EMPIRE OF LIGHT) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formProven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, pushed along over 2f out, tackled soon after, headed over 1f out, one paced”
#3PENNY TIME (IRE)PROMINENTFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 85 · Jack Nicholls / Hugo Palmer
MARKET backed 6 → 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
85FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 3pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
85 · ranked #3 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
85 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 4 tries · below market expectation (0.72)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 107.0% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 8 places on the course scale (CHESTER 5th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 9lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 78 vs 87 last run (CHESTER · 13 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 1.13)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.24/517.8%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0513/12510.4%0.77
Over 7-8f trips64/43414.7%1.2611/10910.1%0.8
In fields of 12-1518/1829.9%1.213/427.1%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newcastle (small sample)9/6214.5%1.071/520.0%1.52
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Jack Nicholls · last 14 days: 5/23· at Newcastle: A/E 0.53 (n48)· with this yard: A/E 1.43 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 13
+1.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 13
+0.23s
Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 13
107.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length10th of 13
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Chester7f127yGd/Sft29th8787True38.9 +0.26101.2+0.53
Timed runs 2026-03-04 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (85)Only 4 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, prominent, ridden when badly hampered under 2f out, not recover”
#4FANTASTIC FOXHELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 82 · Jack Mitchell / Roger Varian
MARKET backed 6 → 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 4pts off the top, a yard in form; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 103
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 92
Record at today's distance
1 win from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.66)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.19% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 11 places on the course scale (YORK 2nd → NEWCASTLE 13th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Roger Varian · 1091 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a judgement-rated last figure, off a falsely-run (hidden) last run
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-1525/16715.0%0.977/3718.9%1.33
Coming back after 15 to 45 days84/45718.4%0.925/10324.3%1.18
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)0/30.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
At Newcastle (small sample)10/6315.9%0.623/1030.0%1.81
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 103 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Jack Mitchell · last 14 days: 1/25· at Newcastle: A/E 0.68 (n102)· with this yard: A/E 0.74 (n334)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 13
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 13
+0.41s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 13
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 13
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26York1m177yGood411th8579—39.9 +0.30102.9+0.30
27 Nov 25Newcastle1mSlow310th8787.5True39.8 +0.0594.2+0.29
31 Oct 25Southwell1m13yStd27th9093.5True40.5 -0.23108.6+0.41
Timed runs 2025-06-26 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
CHUZZLEWIT · 1 meeting · n/a
1 Jan 24 · 1m · Slow — finished 3rd vs 5th, 3.25L ahead · OR 92 v 89 · race median 92 (today 78) · stale — 31m ago, not in the read
METAL MERCHANT (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Jun 24 · 1m · Firm — finished 9th vs 7th, 2L behind · OR 97 v 97 · race median 100 (today 78) · stale — 25m ago, not in the read
FREDDIE STEADY GO · 1 meeting≈ 1.3L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Jun 26 · 1m177y · Good — finished 11th vs 8th, 2.3L behind · OR 85 v 81 · race median 79 (today 78)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through PEARL EYE, FRANKIES DREAM) ≈ -5.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CALLIANASSA (IRE) (read through UNASSUMING, WHIP CRACKER) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IZZARI (GER) (read through SIR PAUL RAMSEY, BREWING, HALE END, HARSWELL RUBY) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) (read through NIKOVO, RAINBOW NEBULA, HIGH ON HOPE, FIRST AMBITION) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
10lb below his last winning mark (82 today vs 92)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 84, 10pts above his recent average of 74.0Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 11 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, headway late on, never on terms”
#5MR MISTOFFELEES (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 9 · OR 76 · Billy Garritty / Sam England
MARKET backed 17.5 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 6pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
1 win from 22 tries · below market expectation (0.39)
Days since last run
50
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · best on the clock in its race Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.96% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Sam England · 339 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-154/567.1%0.823/2015.0%2.12
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle5/588.6%0.710/180.0%0.0
On the all-weather11/10410.6%0.932/494.1%0.54
At this time of year (Q3)11/8313.3%1.071/911.1%0.62
In Class 4-5 company ✦14/13910.1%0.955/637.9%0.72
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)2/219.5%1.40/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Billy Garritty · last 14 days: 1/18· at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n216)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n10)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 13
+0.26 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 13
+0.40s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 13
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 13
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Doncaster7f213yGd/Frm42nd7478True40.3 +0.17106.4+0.15
20 May 26Ayr1mGd/Frm45th7676Fast early41.2 +0.81100.2+0.38
7 May 26Redcar1mGood37th7881True41.2 +0.3497.8+0.26
27 Mar 26Newcastle1mStd48th7979True38.6 +0.1098.3+0.48
5 Dec 25Newcastle7f14yStd/Slow46th8080True40.1 +0.11102.9+0.65
21 Nov 25Southwell1m13yStd42nd7677.5Fast early39.7 +0.00100.2+0.47
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.33very slow2f+0.30slow3f+0.38par4f+0.30fast5f+0.30par6f+0.30fast7f+0.27fast1m+0.08very fast
Timed runs 2025-11-21 to 2026-06-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
27 Mar 26 · 1m · Std — finished 8th vs 4th, 4.25L behind · OR 79 v 73 · race median 79 (today 78)
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
29 Jul 23 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 9th vs 5th, 9L behind · OR 89 v 99 · race median 97 (today 78) · stale — 36m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-5.2L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FIGHT YOUR CORNER (IRE) (read through SIGNCASTLE CITY, MIDNIGHT'S DREAM) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CALYXOH (IRE) (read through AL MUQDAD, BENACRE, GRABAJABBA, JANNAS JOURNEY) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WALSINGHAM (IRE) (read through SIR PAUL RAMSEY, ELDRICKJONES, MR SWIVELL, JIMMY SPEAKING) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through ELDRICKJONES, BENACRE, HAVANA BLUE, YOUARENOTFORGIVEN) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.26 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 8 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, effort approaching final 1f, kept on well, closed to line”
#6CALLIANASSA (IRE)MID
DRAW 12 · OR 79 · Darragh Keenan / Brian Ellison
MARKET drifting 8.6 → 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
80.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 7.3pts off the top, proven at the trip; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
80.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 20 tries · beats market expectation (1.96)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.75% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Ellison · 771 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)27/23611.4%1.232/219.5%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-158/1336.0%1.11/452.2%0.29
Coming back after 15 to 45 days29/26411.0%1.084/894.5%0.54
In Class 4-5 company30/27111.1%1.25/1074.7%0.65
Over 7-8f trips15/1649.1%1.125/816.2%0.74
On the all-weather22/2379.3%1.055/806.2%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Darragh Keenan · last 14 days: 4/22· at Newcastle: A/E 1.15 (n41)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 13
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 13
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 13
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length12th of 13
7.04 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow411th8076True39.8 -0.3494.3—
17 Jun 26Ascot1mGd/Frm27th8288True38.8 -0.1899.5+0.00
8 May 26Chester1m2f70yGood26th8292True39.4 -0.50103.1+0.11
Timed runs 2026-03-06 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
26 Jun 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 11th vs 2nd, 6.3L behind · OR 80 v 61 · race median 76 (today 78)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-3.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FANTASTIC FOX (read through UNASSUMING, WHIP CRACKER) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WALSINGHAM (IRE) (read through SAILTHISSHIPALONE, FINAL NIGHT, GOOD MORNING ALEX, INTRUSIVELY) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MR MISTOFFELEES (IRE) (read through STANAGE, ROGUE ENCORE, WAR HOWL, AL MUQDAD) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CALYXOH (IRE) (read through AL MUQDAD, BRUNEL NATION, MOON BEGINNINGS, JANNAS JOURNEY) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 4/18 on the all-weather3lb below his last winning mark (79 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (20 tries, beats market expectation at 1.96)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 16 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led 2f out, ridden soon after, headed approaching final 1f, not quicken”
#7CALYXOH (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 74 · Donagh Murphy / Patrick Morris
MARKET drifting 21 → 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 8−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 8pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; concedes ~1.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
1 win from 11 tries · below market expectation (0.6)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Patrick Morris · 466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)1/731.4%0.20/120.0%0.0
In fields of 12-152/504.0%0.760/180.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company ✦7/1424.9%0.682/673.0%0.36
At Newcastle11/10510.5%1.092/444.5%0.41
Over 7-8f trips ✦8/1047.7%0.773/644.7%0.53
Below their last winning mark6/5810.3%1.232/375.4%0.68
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/8612.8%1.243/456.7%0.75
On the all-weather ✦19/2388.0%0.879/1197.6%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 98 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Donagh Murphy · last 14 days: 0/13· with this yard: A/E 0.98 (n8)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 13
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 13
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 13
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 13
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-08 to 2026-07-11. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs METAL MERCHANT (IRE) (read through THE DRAGON KING, ROGUE DIPLOMAT, METAVERSE) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MR MISTOFFELEES (IRE) (read through AL MUQDAD, BENACRE, GRABAJABBA, JANNAS JOURNEY) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WALSINGHAM (IRE) (read through BARLEY, THE GREEN MAN, SPIRIT GENIE, BELTADAAY) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through DIAMONDONTHEHILL, BENACRE, DAPPER GUEST, BRAVO ZULU) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (74 today vs 79)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, forced wide entering straight, headway 1f out, took third close home”
#8ONE NIGHT THUNDERPROMINENT
DRAW 13 · OR 78 · Sam James / Gemma Tutty
MARKET drifting 24 → 29 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 7+ / 1−
74FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 14pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
74 · ranked #9 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.14)
Days since last run
44
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gemma Tutty · 514 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle5/975.2%0.484/1723.5%3.49
On the all-weather18/17910.1%1.027/3321.2%2.91
In fields of 12-158/948.5%1.163/2114.3%1.86
Above their last winning mark11/1179.4%0.847/4415.9%1.53
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2029.9%1.038/6711.9%1.42
In Class 4-5 company22/2289.6%0.99/7611.8%1.37
Over 7-8f trips23/2329.9%1.05/598.5%1.33
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)14/13510.4%0.981/205.0%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 94 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Sam James · last 14 days: 6/19· at Newcastle: A/E 0.69 (n207)· with this yard: A/E 1.87 (n27)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 13
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 13
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 13
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length13th of 13
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Nottingham1m75ySoft48th8080True37.3 -0.0997.3+0.00
9 May 26Haydock Park6f212yGood43rd8082True38.9 +0.0298.4+0.24
Timed runs 2025-09-09 to 2026-06-11. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
CHUZZLEWIT · 1 meeting · n/a
23 Mar 24 · 1m · Heavy — finished 10th vs 9th, 0.3L behind · OR 88 v 92 · race median 96 (today 78) · stale — 28m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs IZZARI (GER) (read through FLYING FLETCHER, SWIFT SALIAN, YAASER) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FANTASTIC FOX (read through PEARL EYE, FRANKIES DREAM) ≈ +5.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) (read through ON THE RIVER, TROPEZ POWER, PEARL EYE, MYSTERYOFTHESANDS) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PAL JOEY (read through BENACRE, YAASER, DARING LEGEND, NOVAK) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 75)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, every chance 2f out, dropped away over 1f out”
#9METAL MERCHANT (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 84 · Jack Gilligan / John Butler
MARKET drifting 18.5 → 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 16pts off the top, dropping in class; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 103
Official mark (OR)
84 · last won off 91
Record at today's distance
1 win from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.73)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races midfield and fades
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 894 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: dropping in class, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/1829.3%1.038/2236.4%1.98
On the all-weather45/5078.9%0.9330/12524.0%1.59
In Class 4-5 company18/3355.4%0.7727/12821.1%1.47
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/3427.0%0.7723/12019.2%1.33
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)3/2015.0%1.624/1625.0%1.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 104 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Jack Gilligan · last 14 days: 2/11· at Newcastle: A/E 0 (n3)· with this yard: A/E 2.91 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 13
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 13
+0.33s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed13th of 13
97.6%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 13
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Newcastle7f14ySlow214th8792.5Fast early40.6 +0.0297.7+0.36
22 May 26Goodwood7fGood313th9087.5True39.5 -0.1796.1+0.27
28 Mar 26Doncaster1mGd/Sft220th9395True39.0 -0.1194.1+0.48
10 May 25Ascot7fFirm212th9696True40.5 -0.0597.1+0.29
Timed runs 2024-08-25 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
FANTASTIC FOX · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Jun 24 · 1m · Firm — finished 7th vs 9th, 2L ahead · OR 97 v 97 · race median 100 (today 78) · stale — 25m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs CALYXOH (IRE) (read through THE DRAGON KING, ROGUE DIPLOMAT, METAVERSE) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) (read through NIKOVO, THEORYOFEVERYTHING, GALERON, VALVANO) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WALSINGHAM (IRE) (read through THEORYOFEVERYTHING, THUNDER ROAR, SHOUT, GALERON) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through MORTE POINT, PEARL EYE, SON, DILIGENT RESDEV) ≈ +0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb below his last winning mark (84 today vs 91)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 72, 10pts above his recent average of 61.3Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, no impression”
#10CHUZZLEWITMID
DRAW 11 · OR 66 · Shay Farmer / Seb Spencer
MARKET drifting 17.5 → 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
70.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 18pts off the top, in form; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #11 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 86
Record at today's distance
1 win from 28 tries · below market expectation (0.47)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Seb Spencer · 320 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/8610.5%1.31/714.3%1.36
Over 7-8f trips9/999.1%1.042/326.2%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newcastle1/323.1%0.450/90.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark1/205.0%0.880/160.0%0.0
In fields of 12-155/637.9%1.260/150.0%0.0
On the all-weather6/946.4%0.781/224.5%0.82
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Shay Farmer · last 14 days: 1/9· at Newcastle: A/E 0.29 (n45)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n22)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 13
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 13
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 13
98.2%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 13
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow42nd6176True40.2 +0.0595.9—
2 Jun 26Newcastle1mStd52nd6071True38.9 +0.23100.0—
Timed runs 2026-02-10 to 2026-06-26. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
26 Jun 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 2nd vs 11th, 6.3L ahead · OR 61 v 80 · race median 76 (today 78)
ONE NIGHT THUNDER · 1 meeting · n/a
23 Mar 24 · 1m · Heavy — finished 9th vs 10th, 0.3L ahead · OR 92 v 88 · race median 96 (today 78) · stale — 28m ago, not in the read
FANTASTIC FOX · 1 meeting · n/a
1 Jan 24 · 1m · Slow — finished 5th vs 3rd, 3.25L behind · OR 89 v 92 · race median 92 (today 78) · stale — 31m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+3.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs PAL JOEY (read through YAASER, BELLARCHI, DARING LEGEND) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FREDDIE STEADY GO (read through HALE END, BILLYB, EMPIRE OF LIGHT) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IZZARI (GER) (read through CUSACK, STARLINER, QUIET RESOLVE, HALE END) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WALSINGHAM (IRE) (read through SAILTHISSHIPALONE, INTRUSIVELY, HALE END, COSMOS RAJ) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
20lb below his last winning mark (66 today vs 86)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 70, 8pts above his recent average of 62.0Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 11 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“settled in mid-field, headway from 3f out, challenged final ½f, kept on”
#11EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE)MID
DRAW 8 · OR 70 · Dougie Costello / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET drifting 44 → 70 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 28pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
60.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 107
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 28 tries · below market expectation (0.61)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Sean Quinn · 788 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1219.1%0.674/2317.4%1.62
At Newcastle5/598.5%0.832/1811.1%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-1512/1428.5%1.01/372.7%0.37
Over 7-8f trips25/2559.8%0.872/464.3%0.56
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)4/2913.8%1.022/1513.3%2.12
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 107 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Dougie Costello · last 14 days: 1/9· at Newcastle: A/E 0.6 (n59)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 13
-0.20 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 13
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed12th of 13
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 13
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-28 to 2026-07-17. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
16 Apr 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.5L behind · OR 82 v 84 · race median 78 (today 78)
MR MISTOFFELEES (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
29 Jul 23 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 5th vs 9th, 9L ahead · OR 99 v 89 · race median 97 (today 78) · stale — 36m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+13.2L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through ON THE RIVER, TROPEZ POWER, PEARL EYE, MYSTERYOFTHESANDS) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs METAL MERCHANT (IRE) (read through NIKOVO, THEORYOFEVERYTHING, GALERON, VALVANO) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FANTASTIC FOX (read through NIKOVO, RAINBOW NEBULA, HIGH ON HOPE, FIRST AMBITION) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FREDDIE STEADY GO (read through LEADENHALL, CAPITAL GUARANTEE, BILLYB, EMPIRE OF LIGHT) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
14lb below his last winning mark (70 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayStable cold this week — 1 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, always behind”
#12IZZARI (GER)MID
DRAW 14 · OR 66 · Andrew Mullen / Iain Jardine
MARKET backed 28 → 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
55.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 33pts off the top, backed since the morning; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
55.0 · ranked #13 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Iain Jardine · 1198 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Andrew Mullen, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle ✦24/22110.9%1.111/7913.9%1.52
In fields of 12-1516/1918.4%1.185/4311.6%1.4
On the all-weather ✦34/30911.0%1.0318/11915.1%1.35
Coming back after 15 to 45 days31/4167.5%0.8117/14012.1%1.32
At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.997/4117.1%1.26
Over 7-8f trips ✦33/29811.1%1.1912/10012.0%1.16
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
The rider
Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 1/23· at Newcastle: A/E 0.98 (n361)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n733)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 13
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 13
+0.27s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed8th of 13
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 13
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Jun 26York1m2f56yGood412th7074True39.7 +0.39103.7+0.49
17 May 26Hamilton Park1m3f15yGood410th7269True40.6 +0.27100.8+0.13
3 May 26Hamilton Park1m68yGood58th7371True38.6 -0.4393.2+0.37
27 Mar 26Newcastle1mStd44th7379True38.6 +0.14101.6+0.01
22 Nov 25Newcastle1m2f42ySlow56th7472Fast early37.7 -0.03100.4+0.46
Timed runs 2025-11-22 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
27 Mar 26 · 1m · Std — finished 4th vs 8th, 4.25L ahead · OR 73 v 79 · race median 79 (today 78)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+6.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through FLYING FLETCHER, SWIFT SALIAN, YAASER) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PAL JOEY (read through NYMAN, YAASER, FOREST CAPER, NATIVE INSTINCT) ≈ -4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FANTASTIC FOX (read through SIR PAUL RAMSEY, BREWING, HALE END, HARSWELL RUBY) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHUZZLEWIT (read through CUSACK, STARLINER, QUIET RESOLVE, HALE END) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (66 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, shaken up under 3f out, no impression”
#13PAL JOEYHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 66 · Aiden Brookes / Ben Haslam
MARKET 150 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 3−
54FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
14th on the figures, 34pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
54 · ranked #14 here · career best 81 · earned over 5.0/5.0/5.0f — but has run to 78 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.33% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 78 vs 72 last run (THIRSK · 16 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ben Haslam · 400 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: at this time of year (Q1), on the all-weather, off a judgement-rated last figure, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, without a sectional tell last time, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newcastle15/9316.1%1.5311/4126.8%2.29
On the all-weather ✦15/9915.2%1.5113/5026.0%2.06
In Class 4-5 company14/13510.4%1.076/629.7%1.26
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦15/13710.9%1.019/7611.8%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips11/9012.2%1.111/372.7%0.55
In fields of 12-157/6011.7%1.371/254.0%0.63
Below their last winning mark3/1225.0%2.561/224.5%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
The rider
Aiden Brookes · last 14 days: 1/13· at Newcastle: A/E 0.9 (n181)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n10)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 13
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 13
+0.41s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 13
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 13
7.65 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood59th6972True42.2 -0.0498.0+0.43
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft55th6966True42.3 +0.0098.3+0.43
17 May 26Hamilton Park5fGood310th7180True44.2 -0.0498.1+0.74
Timed runs 2026-01-31 to 2026-06-16. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs CHUZZLEWIT (read through YAASER, BELLARCHI, DARING LEGEND) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ONE NIGHT THUNDER (read through BENACRE, YAASER, DARING LEGEND, NOVAK) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs IZZARI (GER) (read through NYMAN, YAASER, FOREST CAPER, NATIVE INSTINCT) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) (read through OBELIX, CANDONOMORE, ENOLA GREY, RAINBOW NEBULA) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (66 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRating earned over 5.0/5.0/5.0f, but he has run to 78 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Only 4 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)
LTO comment
“dwelt, steadied start, ridden over 2f out, left behind over 1f out”