FORMLAB Race Report — Newcastle 16:35

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Newcastle · 16:35

Class 6 · 1m · Standard to Slow · FIELD MEDIAN OR 51

GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 12 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 12:51 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Standard to Slow

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32

FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 6	58	25.9%	51.7%	19%	46.6%
miles (7-9f)	49	22.4%	49%	22.4%	42.9%
handicaps	159	25.2%	59.1%	25.8%	57.2%

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (96% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, BOOK OF LIFE leads on 62, 1pts clear of LITTLE TED — in form. The case against the top pick: stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings and habitually slow from the stalls. The shape danger is MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making ADELAIDE BAY the 32% favourite — a horse our figures rate 4th.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 7

BOOK OF LIFE

OR 55 · C. Horgan / Patrick Morris

MARKET drifting 5.4 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−6lb below his last winning mark (55 today vs 61)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (62.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 9

LITTLE TED

OR 53 · Oisin McSweeney / Tim Easterby

MARKET drifting 5.7 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance

61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (61.0)A course winner (1 from 13 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 12

MERCURIUS POWER (IRE)

OR 52 · Rhys Elliott / Jessica Macey

MARKET drifting 6.2 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance

59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−10lb below his last winning mark (52 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (59.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1LITTLE TEDnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency − habitually slow away

2MERCURIUS POWER (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency, meets much weaker company by the marks

3ARRANMOREnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119

BOOK OF LIFE carries stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings and habitually slow from the stalls. LITTLE TED is the one to beat it — an edge BOOK OF LIFE lacks: runs the dominant winning style here.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by prominent racers 28% · hold-up closers 26% (162 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Stiff, uphill finish — a true stamina test. Winners’ energy signature: 49.13% spent early (band 48.2–50.05%, 257 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.34s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89

28 similar races at NEWCASTLE, 7.5-8.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (96% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites). 18% won last time out, 11% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

36% 4yo

25% 5yo

21% 6yo+

Last ran

68% 15-45d

29% within 14d

4% 46-90d

Market

57% 4th+ in the market

21% 2nd favourite

14% 3rd favourite

LTO form

71% unplaced last time

18% won last time

11% placed last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 12 runners · stalls 1–12

123456789101112

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

BOOK OF LIFE HELD-UP 47.6% 104.3 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

SUZETTE HELD-UP 51.4% 96.6 held up without the late gear (12th of 12 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

ADELAIDE BAY HELD-UP 48.4% 101.5 solid late gains (5th of 12 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

LITTLE TED MID 49.8% 97.6 held up without the late gear (10th of 12 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) HELD-UP 48.8% 103.9 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) MID 49.4% 101.9 solid late gains (4th of 12 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

ARRANMORE MID 49.7% 103.2 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

DEFENCE MISSILE (IRE) HELD-UP 50.2% 99.7 one-paced late — 7th of 12 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

SIEVIER MID 50.5% 99.6 one-paced late — 8th of 12 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

PEBBLE DASH (IRE) HELD-UP 50.0% 100.4 one-paced late — 6th of 12 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

WHERES THE CRUMPET MID 50.7% 99.4 one-paced late — 9th of 12 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

RAJA CHARGER HELD-UP 52.0% 97.0 held up without the late gear (11th of 12 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 BOOK OF LIFE HELD-UP

DRAW 7 · OR 55 · C. Horgan / Patrick Morris

MARKET drifting 5.4 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, in form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

62.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 72

Official mark (OR)

55 · last won off 61

Record at today's distance

1 win from 24 tries · below market expectation (0.47)

Days since last run

21

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 104.3% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 5lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 46 last run (CARLISLE · 4 Jul 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 7f176y · rated 625thClass 6 · 1m1f44y · rated 514thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 632ndClass 6 · 1m132y · rated 603rdClass 6 · 1m · rated 63

Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Patrick Morris · 466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FLAT

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)1/731.4%0.20/120.0%0.0

In fields of 12-152/504.0%0.760/180.0%0.0

At Newcastle11/10510.5%1.092/444.5%0.41

Over 7-8f trips ✦8/1047.7%0.773/644.7%0.53

Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/1203.3%0.383/565.4%0.62

Below their last winning mark6/5810.3%1.232/375.4%0.68

On the all-weather ✦19/2388.0%0.879/1197.6%0.75

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 72 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

C. Horgan · last 14 days: 1/8 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.61 (n37) · with this yard: A/E 0.59 (n17)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields1st of 12

+0.47 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 12

+0.26s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed1st of 12

104.3%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length8th of 12

7.16 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Carlisle7f173yGood62nd5546—37.3 +0.00102.2+0.00—

17 Jun 26Hamilton Park1m1f35yGd/Sft65th5657True39.2 +0.34103.3+0.40

11 May 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd64th5757Slow early40.0 +0.77108.7+0.12

27 Apr 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd62nd5758Fast early38.6 +0.34102.0+0.24

13 Apr 26Newcastle1mStd63rd5756True40.0 +0.52102.5+0.41

6 Apr 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd64th5657.5True38.9 +0.84107.2+0.40

Timed runs 2026-04-06 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms

13 Apr 26 · 1m · Std — finished 3rd vs 6th, 2.35L ahead · OR 57 v 58 · race median 56 (today 51)

WHERES THE CRUMPET · 1 meeting≈ 7.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

4 Jul 26 · 7f173y · Good — finished 2nd vs 8th, 7.7L ahead · OR 55 v 46 · race median 46 (today 51)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+2.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs ADELAIDE BAY (read through LESSAY, ARNAZ, STRAIGHT A, THE CARIBBEAN) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) (read through CORAMENTO, RAINWATER, TRAIS FLUORS, PALLAS LORD) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs SUZETTE (read through JEWEL MAKER, VOLENDAM) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LITTLE TED (read through BARLEYBROWN, ALPINE SIERRA, PALLAS LORD, OUR MISTY BLUE) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

6lb below his last winning mark (55 today vs 61)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (62.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“quickly away, settled in mid-field, headway 2f out, took second final 50 yds”

#2 LITTLE TED MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 9 · OR 53 · Oisin McSweeney / Tim Easterby

MARKET drifting 5.7 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−

61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, in form; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

61.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 69

Official mark (OR)

53 · last won off 54

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 39 tries · below market expectation (0.86)

Days since last run

21

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 97.61% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 17 places on the course scale (LEICESTER 30th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 57 last run (LEICESTER · 4 Jul 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 1m44y · rated 612ndClass 6 · 1m · rated 607thClass 6 · 1m110y · rated 452ndClass 6 · 1m · rated 585thClass 6 · 1m · rated 54

Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Newcastle13/1538.5%0.861/283.6%0.41

In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58

On the all-weather ✦19/2627.3%0.774/567.1%0.77

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Oisin McSweeney · last 14 days: 2/11 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.04 (n90) · with this yard: A/E 1.25 (n15)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields5th of 12

+0.01 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 12

+0.31s

Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed10th of 12

97.6%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 12

7.47 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester1m53yGd/Frm62nd5257—39.7 +0.5296.6+0.61—

25 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow62nd5050True39.1 -0.2494.9—

16 Jun 26Beverley1m100yGood67th5050.5True38.1 -0.0997.5+0.45

6 Jun 26Musselburgh1mGood62nd5047True38.5 +0.41102.1+0.44

2 Jun 26Newcastle1mStd65th5051True38.5 +0.1499.3+0.00

17 May 26Ripon1mGd/Frm612th5352True38.5 -0.6595.2+0.06

Timed runs 2026-05-17 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 9.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

2 Jun 26 · 1m · Std — finished 5th vs 8th, 0.8L ahead · OR 50 v 55 · race median 51 (today 51)

WHERES THE CRUMPET · 2 meetings · n/a

29 May 25 · 7f173y · Soft — finished 3rd vs 1st, 4.3L behind · OR 55 v 48 · race median 49 (today 51) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read

ARRANMORE · 2 meetings≈ 9.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

17 May 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 5th, 8.55L behind · OR 53 v 51 · race median 52 (today 51)

PEBBLE DASH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

6 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 2nd vs 4th, 5.2L ahead · OR 50 v 45 · race median 47 (today 51)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-4.8L adj, 4 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) (read through PALLAS LORD, VOLENTI, WYVERN, SHIFTER) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs RAJA CHARGER (read through PALMARIAN, LOOKS FANTASTIC, MAYO COUNTY, SUPER HIT) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DEFENCE MISSILE (IRE) (read through SPRINGBOK, COCONUT BAY, ASHEN, MONHAMMER) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BOOK OF LIFE (read through BARLEYBROWN, ALPINE SIERRA, PALLAS LORD, OUR MISTY BLUE) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (61.0)Lost roughly 2.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.01 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 13 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“rear, headway from 3f out, led approaching final 1f, went clear, idled, headed close home”

#3 MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 12 · OR 52 · Rhys Elliott / Jessica Macey

MARKET drifting 6.2 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−

59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; solid late gains (4th of 12 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

59.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

52 · last won off 62

Record at today's distance

1 win from 32 tries · below market expectation (0.42)

Days since last run

41

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.94% (holds late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 57.5 last run (DONCASTER · 14 Jun 26)

Class Reversion Watch [P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP

This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.

Best ever · vs now

TFR 79 at its peak · running to 59 now

a 20pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing

The handicapper's mark

10lb LOWER than the mark it last WON from (52 today · won off 62)

it has already won a race from a HIGHER mark than today's — the handicapper has given it a real chance

Raw speed

3rd fastest of 12 here

on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone

Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.

Headgear

Cheekpieces and tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 6 · 1m · rated 598thClass 6 · 1m · rated 587thClass 6 · 1m44y · rated 516thClass 6 · 1m · rated 596thClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 58

Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jessica Macey · 424 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: kept to the same class, with a new jockey booked, hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO, without a sectional tell last time, after a slow start last time, without a recent yard winner, as an exposed handicapper, mid-campaign

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company13/1339.8%0.890/450.0%0.0

At Newcastle5/4910.2%0.880/80.0%0.0

On the all-weather17/14012.1%1.170/470.0%0.0

In fields of 12-156/688.8%1.130/180.0%0.0

Over 7-8f trips11/1189.3%1.041/531.9%0.21

Below their last winning mark7/2626.9%2.051/422.4%0.25

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦15/1688.9%0.862/653.1%0.32

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 1/25 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.66 (n141) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 12

+0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 12

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 12

101.9%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length12th of 12

6.92 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Jun 26Doncaster7f213yGd/Sft65th5357.5True39.8 +0.17101.9+0.57

2 Jun 26Newcastle1mStd68th5551True38.3 -0.0699.0+0.01

9 May 26Leicester1m53yGd/Frm67th5762True38.8 +0.4899.8+0.12

13 Apr 26Newcastle1mStd66th5856True39.4 +0.00100.9+0.00

13 Mar 26Southwell1m13yStd66th5962True39.7 +0.11108.5+0.00

11 Feb 26Southwell1m13yStd63rd6058Fast early38.1 +0.00101.5+0.14

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.41par2f+0.68slow3f+0.84par4f+0.90par5f+0.67par6f+0.61par7f+0.51slow1m+0.39par

Timed runs 2026-02-11 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

BOOK OF LIFE · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · reverses

13 Apr 26 · 1m · Std — finished 6th vs 3rd, 2.35L behind · OR 58 v 57 · race median 56 (today 51)

LITTLE TED · 2 meetings≈ 9.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

2 Jun 26 · 1m · Std — finished 8th vs 5th, 0.8L behind · OR 55 v 50 · race median 51 (today 51)

MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

17 Jan 26 · 1m13y · Std — finished 5th vs 9th, 8.55L ahead · OR 61 v 59 · race median 66 (today 51)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+5.0L adj, 4 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DEFENCE MISSILE (IRE) (read through SECOND FIDDLE, SPRINGBOK) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs RAJA CHARGER (read through TRAVIS, MAYO COUNTY, SUPER HIT) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs WHERES THE CRUMPET (read through TRAIS FLUORS, TEGGY LASSO, IMOLA, POP FAVORITE) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs ADELAIDE BAY (read through BILLYJOEGOLD, THE CARIBBEAN, ENPASSANT, DREAM ILLUSION) ≈ +4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

10lb below his last winning mark (52 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (59.0)Lost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, outpaced halfway, stayed on, nearest finish”

#4 ADELAIDE BAY HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 54 · Billy Loughnane / Jane Chapple-Hyam

MARKET backed 6 → 3.1 · the market rates it a 32% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

56.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 5.3pts off the top, backed since the morning; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

56.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 75

Official mark (OR)

54 · last won off 60

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 17 tries · beats market expectation (1.12)

Days since last run

11

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 101.54% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 19 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 56.5 last run (WOLVERHAMPTON · 14 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 6 · 7f44y · rated 492ndClass 6 · 7f · rated 635thClass 6 · 7f · rated 582ndClass 6 · 7f22y · rated 618thClass 6 · 7f44y · rated 44

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jane Chapple-Hyam · 534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 8 to 14 days5/4012.5%1.071/166.2%0.44

In fields of 12-155/875.7%0.642/306.7%0.63

At this time of year (Q3)14/13910.1%0.893/2114.3%0.7

Over 7-8f trips ✦25/21311.7%0.988/6013.3%0.85

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)2/1612.5%0.890/20.0%0.0

Below their last winning mark (small sample)—0/60.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company (small sample)7/2429.2%1.412/1020.0%0.63

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 17/57 · at Newcastle: A/E 1 (n205) · with this yard: A/E 1.36 (n38)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields7th of 12

-0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph11th of 12

+0.44s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed5th of 12

101.5%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length1st of 12

7.57 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Jul 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd66th5456.5—40.2 -0.2093.3+0.59—

2 Jul 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm62nd5358True41.7 +0.32101.1+0.23

4 Jun 26Lingfield7fStd65th5460True39.9 -0.20104.1+0.22

21 May 26Southwell7f14yStd62nd5252—39.0 +0.00104.4+0.37

13 Mar 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd68th5556.5True39.2 +0.07105.9+0.49

21 Feb 26Chelmsford City7fStd68th5757True38.8 -0.08100.5+0.72

Timed runs 2026-02-21 to 2026-07-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs PEBBLE DASH (IRE) (read through SANDITON, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BOOK OF LIFE (read through LESSAY, ARNAZ, STRAIGHT A, THE CARIBBEAN) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) (read through BILLYJOEGOLD, THE CARIBBEAN, ENPASSANT, DREAM ILLUSION) ≈ -4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs SUZETTE (read through BAD HABITS, SANDITON, ENCHANTED WAY, SHEEPHAVENBAYSTORY) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

AW-PROVEN — 3/15 on the all-weather6lb below his last winning mark (54 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“off pace, ridden over 2f out, some late headway”

#5 ARRANMORE MID

DRAW 4 · OR 50 · Aiden Brookes / Micky Hammond

MARKET drifting 13 → 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 8pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

54.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

50 · last won off 47

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 18 tries

Days since last run

37

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s)
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 103.2% (strong late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 55 last run (RIPON · 18 Jun 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces and tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 6 · 1m4f · rated 546thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 525thClass 6 · 1m · rated 442ndClass 6 · 1m3f22y · rated 571stClass 6 · 1m3f22y · rated 57

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Micky Hammond · 326 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 7-8f trips2/842.4%0.561/911.1%2.3

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Newcastle2/523.8%0.930/70.0%0.0

Above their last winning mark5/2619.2%1.60/180.0%0.0

In fields of 12-151/521.9%0.450/140.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company9/1675.4%0.81/492.0%0.29

On the all-weather5/1034.9%1.061/362.8%0.56

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Aiden Brookes · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.9 (n181) · with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n319)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields4th of 12

+0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 12

+0.08s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 12

103.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length10th of 12

7.06 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

18 Jun 26Ripon1m4f10yGood67th5155True37.7 +0.11102.2—

8 Jun 26Pontefract1m2fGood66th5157True36.1 -0.09102.1+0.00

17 May 26Ripon1mGd/Frm65th5152True39.5 +0.2699.5+0.11

30 Apr 26Southwell1m3f23yStd62nd5056True37.3 +0.56104.0+0.09

28 Mar 26Southwell1m3f24yStd61st4752True39.5 +0.08112.7+0.11

12 Mar 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd65th——Fast early36.7 -0.1798.6+0.07

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.55slow2f+0.84par3f+0.85fast4f+1.08par5f+1.08par6f+0.96par7f+0.52par1m+0.47par1m 1f+0.39par1m 2fledpar1m 3f+0.10slow1m 4f+0.73slow

Timed runs 2026-03-12 to 2026-06-18. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

LITTLE TED · 2 meetings≈ 9.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

17 May 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 12th, 8.55L ahead · OR 51 v 53 · race median 52 (today 51)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+9.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs WHERES THE CRUMPET (read through RING OF GOLD, CALCUTTA DREAM, BALQAA, SHOWMETHEWAYHOME) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs PEBBLE DASH (IRE) (read through VOLENTI, TOP GUN TINA, FALCON NINE, OFF SPIN) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) (read through BRINTON, VOLENTI, FAR AHEAD, CORAMENTO) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) (read through ABU ROYAL, FAR AHEAD, VOLENTI, BARLEYBROWN) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (50 today vs 47)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, headway over 2f out, threatened soon after, no extra inside final 1f”

#6 DEFENCE MISSILE (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 3 · OR 47 · Paddy Bradley / Linda Perratt

MARKET 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−

51.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 11pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

51.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

47 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 11 tries

Days since last run

14

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s)
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 99.68% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 56 last run (HAMILTON PARK · 11 Jul 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 6 · 1m66y · rated 519thClass 6 · 7f22y · rated —8thClass 5 · 7f44y · rated —6thClass 6 · 6f · rated 418thClass 5 · 7f · rated 54

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Linda Perratt · 602 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On the all-weather22/2359.4%0.987/739.6%1.31

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)9/1565.8%0.940/200.0%0.0

Coming back after 8 to 14 days5/1144.4%0.541/333.0%0.42

In Class 6-7 company19/2717.0%0.92/702.9%0.52

In fields of 12-158/1077.5%1.281/263.8%0.7

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Paddy Bradley · last 14 days: 2/15 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.65 (n13) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n6)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields8th of 12

-0.15 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 12

+0.34s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed7th of 12

99.7%

One-paced late

Stride length9th of 12

7.14 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jul 26Hamilton Park1m68yGood65th5056Slow early39.7 -0.11109.1+0.41

30 Jun 26Musselburgh7f15yGd/Frm69th5555Fast early39.0 -0.8894.2-0.44

19 Jun 26Ayr7f50ySoft58th6066.5True38.4 -0.1691.4+0.95

9 Aug 25Ayr6fGd/Frm66th6461.5Slow early39.0 -0.0997.3+0.00

23 Jul 25Doncaster7fGood58th6667Slow early39.4 +0.03101.6+0.36

21 Jun 25Ayr7f50yGd/Frm55th6966.5True41.2 +0.32104.5+0.79

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.23slow2f+0.20very slow3f+0.19slow4f+0.21slow5f+0.20par6f+0.26fast7f+0.31very fast1m+0.56very fast

Timed runs 2025-06-21 to 2026-07-11. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) (read through SECOND FIDDLE, SPRINGBOK) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs PEBBLE DASH (IRE) (read through SANDITON, RAJSTAR, THE GAY BLADE, MONHAMMER) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs SUZETTE (read through GLORIOUS KITTY, SANDITON, COCONUT BAY, WHO WANTS ME) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LITTLE TED (read through SPRINGBOK, COCONUT BAY, ASHEN, MONHAMMER) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“slowly away, always behind”

#7 SUZETTE HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 8 · OR 55 · David Nolan / Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood

MARKET backed 27 → 18 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 3−

48.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 13.3pts off the top, a yard in form; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

48.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 71

Official mark (OR)

55 · last won off 70

Record at today's distance

1 win from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.18)

Days since last run

296

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 96.58% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 12lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 63 last run (NEWCASTLE · 2 Oct 25)

Headgear

First-time tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 6 · 1m · rated 433rdClass 6 · 1m110y · rated 545thClass 6 · 7f · rated 496thClass 6 · 1m · rated 576thClass 5 · 6f198y · rated 55

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · 304 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Newcastle3/358.6%0.682/2010.0%3.23

On the all-weather3/595.1%0.474/3411.8%2.45

In fields of 12-156/5311.3%1.663/1816.7%2.15

At this time of year (Q3)10/8012.5%1.553/1618.8%2.04

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 180 days+0/50.0%0.00/70.0%0.0

Below their last winning mark0/20.0%0.00/60.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company10/9210.9%0.953/535.7%0.74

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

David Nolan · last 14 days: 0/9 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.01 (n279) · with this yard: A/E 1.22 (n119)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields6th of 12

-0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph12th of 12

+0.49s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed12th of 12

96.6%

One-paced late

Stride length7th of 12

7.18 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Oct 25Newcastle1mSlow67th5763Fast early40.4 +0.0591.6+0.53

23 Sep 25Beverley1m100yGd/Sft63rd5760True38.7 -0.2593.2+0.71

29 Aug 25Thirsk1mGood66th6060True40.1 +0.74105.6+0.25

10 Jul 25Carlisle6f195yGood56th6364.5Fast early38.8 -0.4094.5+0.38

16 Jun 25Carlisle6f195yGd/Sft58th6662True38.2 +0.3694.8+1.07

22 May 25Wolverhampton7f36ySlow55th6865True39.4 -0.5999.7+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.64fast2f+0.75very fast3f+0.76very fast4f+0.83par5f+0.81par6f+0.46very slow7f+1.06very slow1m+1.83very slow

Timed runs 2025-05-22 to 2025-10-02 · last timed run 296 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs DEFENCE MISSILE (IRE) (read through GLORIOUS KITTY, SANDITON, COCONUT BAY, WHO WANTS ME) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs ADELAIDE BAY (read through BAD HABITS, SANDITON, ENCHANTED WAY, SHEEPHAVENBAYSTORY) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs WHERES THE CRUMPET (read through WOODRAFFF, WILLIAM MARSHAL, NAKATOMI) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BOOK OF LIFE (read through JEWEL MAKER, VOLENDAM) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

15lb below his last winning mark (55 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formReturns from 296 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“waited with, ridden 2f out, never better than mid-field”

#8 MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 10 · OR 52 · Ben Robinson / Brian Ellison

MARKET drifting 7.8 → 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

43.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

8th on the figures, 18.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

43.7 · ranked #8 here · career best 69 · earned over 6.0/10.2/10.2f — but has run to 67 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)

Official mark (OR)

52 · last won off 59

Record at today's distance

1 win from 11 tries · below market expectation (0.82)

Days since last run

29

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 103.94% (strong late)

Field strength · class context

Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 48 last run (NEWCASTLE · 26 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

13thClass 6 · 6f · rated 218thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 536thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 579thClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 365thClass 6 · 1m · rated 60

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Brian Ellison · 771 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)27/23611.4%1.232/219.5%1.44

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 12-158/1336.0%1.11/452.2%0.29

In Class 6-7 company ✦20/19210.4%0.973/506.0%0.54

Coming back after 15 to 45 days29/26411.0%1.084/894.5%0.54

Over 7-8f trips15/1649.1%1.125/816.2%0.74

On the all-weather22/2379.3%1.055/806.2%0.75

Too few runners to read reliably

Below their last winning mark (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/100.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Ben Robinson · last 14 days: 0/11 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.27 (n223) · with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n550)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 12

+0.32 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 12

+0.27s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 12

103.9%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length5th of 12

7.29 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 Jun 26Newcastle6fSlow613th5548Fast early41.9 +0.2694.9—

28 Mar 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Sft58th5763.5True37.9 +1.01105.0+0.40

5 Mar 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd56th5769.5Slow early40.5 +0.47118.8+0.05

17 Jan 26Southwell1m13yStd59th5966True38.3 +0.1896.6+0.22

1 Jan 26Newcastle1mStd64th5958True39.0 +0.12104.2+0.33

20 Dec 25Newcastle7f14yStd/Slow58th6069True40.4 -0.11104.1+0.36

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.77slow2f+0.72fast3f+0.73par4f+0.81slow5f+1.13very slow6f+2.35very slow

Timed runs 2025-12-20 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

17 Jan 26 · 1m13y · Std — finished 9th vs 5th, 8.55L behind · OR 59 v 61 · race median 66 (today 51)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-9.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs SIEVIER (read through BEAMING LIGHT, SCARFO) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs PEBBLE DASH (IRE) (read through TRAIS FLUORS, RIDGEMASTER, WAIT FOR IT, SHERLOCK) ≈ +4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LITTLE TED (read through PALLAS LORD, VOLENTI, WYVERN, SHIFTER) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BOOK OF LIFE (read through CORAMENTO, RAINWATER, TRAIS FLUORS, PALLAS LORD) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

7lb below his last winning mark (52 today vs 59)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 6.0/10.2/10.2f, but he has run to 67 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“dwelt, always behind”

#9 WHERES THE CRUMPET MID

DRAW 11 · OR 46 · Callum Hutchinson / David Thompson

MARKET drifting 34 → 40 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−

37.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

9th on the figures, 24.7pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

37.3 · ranked #9 here · career best 66

Official mark (OR)

46 · last won off 48

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 20 tries · beats market expectation (1.05)

Days since last run

21

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield and fades · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.37% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 5lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 46 last run (CARLISLE · 4 Jul 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 6 · 7f176y · rated 359thClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 3611thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated —10thClass 6 · 1m · rated 418thClass 6 · 1m4f22y · rated 41

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David Thompson · 329 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company15/2186.9%0.790/340.0%0.0

At Newcastle16/14710.9%1.270/180.0%0.0

Over 7-8f trips19/14013.6%1.50/230.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days15/11612.9%1.480/170.0%0.0

Below their last winning mark3/933.3%3.610/200.0%0.0

On the all-weather16/15010.7%1.250/220.0%0.0

In fields of 12-159/1009.0%1.340/140.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)5/915.5%0.620/40.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Callum Hutchinson · last 14 days: 2/19 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.58 (n24)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields10th of 12

-0.34 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 12

+0.11s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed9th of 12

99.4%

One-paced late

Stride length11th of 12

7.02 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Carlisle7f173yGood68th4646—36.8 -0.49102.2+0.19—

2 Jun 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd69th——True37.2 -0.75105.8+0.06

25 May 26Redcar1m2fGd/Frm611th4647.5True38.0 -0.5796.2-0.10

20 Apr 26Newcastle1mStd610th4749True39.3 +0.0296.2+0.28

8 Apr 26Catterick Bridge1m4f13yGood68th4758Fast early38.4 -0.24101.0+0.24

5 Mar 26Newcastle1mStd67th——Fast early39.1 +0.0094.9+0.00

Timed runs 2026-03-05 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

LITTLE TED · 2 meetings · n/a

29 May 25 · 7f173y · Soft — finished 1st vs 3rd, 4.3L ahead · OR 48 v 55 · race median 49 (today 51) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read

PEBBLE DASH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 7.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

20 Apr 26 · 1m · Std — finished 10th vs 13th, 8.25L ahead · OR 47 v 49 · race median 49 (today 51)

BOOK OF LIFE · 1 meeting≈ 7.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

4 Jul 26 · 7f173y · Good — finished 8th vs 2nd, 7.7L behind · OR 46 v 55 · race median 46 (today 51)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+2.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) (read through TRAIS FLUORS, TEGGY LASSO, IMOLA, POP FAVORITE) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs ARRANMORE (read through RING OF GOLD, CALCUTTA DREAM, BALQAA, SHOWMETHEWAYHOME) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs SUZETTE (read through WOODRAFFF, WILLIAM MARSHAL, NAKATOMI) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) (read through TRAIS FLUORS, RIDGEMASTER, CORAMENTO, JUST TYPICAL) ≈ -0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

2lb below his last winning mark (46 today vs 48)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 19 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“off pace, struggling 2f out”

#10 RAJA CHARGER HELD-UP

DRAW 5 · OR 46 · Faye McManoman / Brian Rothwell

MARKET 160 · the market rates it a 1% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−

33.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

10th on the figures, 29pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

33.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 33

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

36

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.6s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 96.95% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 18 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 10lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 60.5 last run (REDCAR · 19 Jun 26)

Headgear

First-time blinkers and tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

12thClass 6 · 7f · rated —11thClass 6 · 6f · rated —7thClass 4 · 1m · rated —11thClass 3 · 1m3f22y · rated —12thClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 33

Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Brian Rothwell · 115 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 32.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On the all-weather0/250.0%0.01/714.3%21.63

Coming back after 15 to 45 days1/313.2%0.81/1010.0%6.5

In Class 6-7 company0/520.0%0.02/219.5%5.46

In fields of 12-150/200.0%0.01/812.5%4.34

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 7-8f trips0/370.0%0.00/60.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)1/333.0%0.971/250.0%14.22

At Newcastle (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 37 is below the ~61.0 the race demands

The rider

Faye McManoman · last 14 days: 2/7 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n130) · with this yard: A/E 1.22 (n72)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields12th of 12

-1.13 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 36.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph10th of 12

+0.40s

Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed11th of 12

97.0%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 12

7.37 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Redcar7fGood612th4660.5True40.1 -0.1793.8+0.29

7 May 26Redcar5f217yGood611th4652True40.2 -2.0293.9+0.39

10 Apr 26Thirsk1mGd/Sft47th——Fast early37.5 -0.52102.9+0.39

4 Mar 26Southwell1m3f23yStd311th——Fast early35.8 -0.7790.6+0.31

7 Feb 26Southwell1m13yStd512th——True36.9 -0.98101.3+0.61

4 Oct 25Newcastle1mSlow53rd——Slow early36.4 -2.3399.2+0.79

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.80slow2f+0.83slow3f+0.87par4f+1.03par5f+1.64very slow6f+3.08very slow7f+4.50very slow

Timed runs 2025-10-04 to 2026-06-19. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) (read through TRAVIS, MAYO COUNTY, SUPER HIT) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LITTLE TED (read through PALMARIAN, LOOKS FANTASTIC, MAYO COUNTY, SUPER HIT) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · thin Timeform history (2 figures)

Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“always behind”

#11 PEBBLE DASH (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 6 · OR 46 · Barry McHugh / Gary Harrison

MARKET 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

29.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

11th on the figures, 32.3pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

29.7 · ranked #11 here · career best 62

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 11 tries

Days since last run

6

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 100.38% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 18 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time visor

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 6 · 1m1f · rated 236thClass 6 · 7f44y · rated 374thClass 6 · 6f · rated 294thClass 6 · 1m · rated 414thClass 6 · 1m198y · rated 42

Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Gary Harrison · 89 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of 12-150/200.0%0.01/714.3%2.74

In Class 6-7 company0/320.0%0.03/378.1%1.16

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after within 7 days0/20.0%0.00/40.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)0/140.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

On the all-weather0/280.0%0.01/234.3%0.61

At Newcastle0/200.0%0.01/166.2%0.78

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 62 at/around today's trip, clears the ~61.0 demand

The rider

Barry McHugh · last 14 days: 1/17 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.91 (n120) · with this yard: A/E 1.24 (n20)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields9th of 12

-0.23 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph9th of 12

+0.37s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed6th of 12

100.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length3rd of 12

7.41 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jul 26Redcar1m1fGd/Frm67th4650.5—39.3 -0.32106.2+0.31—

20 Jun 26Ayr7f50ySoft66th——Fast early38.1 -0.72102.6+0.70

10 Jun 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Sft64th4647Fast early41.7 -1.1097.5+0.57

6 Jun 26Musselburgh1mGood64th4547True38.7 +0.64100.6+0.00

21 May 26Musselburgh1m208yGood64th4753True38.3 +0.29102.7+0.28

20 Apr 26Newcastle1mStd613th4949True39.1 -0.1492.7+0.36

Timed runs 2026-04-20 to 2026-07-19. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

WHERES THE CRUMPET · 1 meeting≈ 7.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

20 Apr 26 · 1m · Std — finished 13th vs 10th, 8.25L behind · OR 49 v 47 · race median 49 (today 51)

LITTLE TED · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

6 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 4th vs 2nd, 5.2L behind · OR 45 v 50 · race median 47 (today 51)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-6.2L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs ADELAIDE BAY (read through SANDITON, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DEFENCE MISSILE (IRE) (read through SANDITON, RAJSTAR, THE GAY BLADE, MONHAMMER) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) (read through TRAIS FLUORS, RIDGEMASTER, WAIT FOR IT, SHERLOCK) ≈ -4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MERCURIUS POWER (IRE) (read through TRAIS FLUORS, TEGGY LASSO, SHERLOCK, AMELIA'S JOY) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Jockey goes well at this track (1.91x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“awkward start, mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, no further impression”

#12 SIEVIER MID

DRAW 2 · OR 46 · Jonny Peate / John Dawson

MARKET 95 · the market rates it a 1% chance

29.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

12th on the figures, 32.7pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; its sectional profile is out of date.

FormLab Figure

29.3 · ranked #12 here · career best 40

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

404

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced) · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.6% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 14 places on the course scale (CHEPSTOW 27th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 51 vs 48 last run (CHEPSTOW · 16 Jun 25)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

9thClass 6 · 1m22y · rated —6thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated —5thClass 5 · 1m · rated 255thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 406thClass 5 · 1m · rated 23

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John Dawson

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 40 is below the ~61.0 the race demands

The rider

Jonny Peate · last 14 days: 1/12 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n161) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields11th of 12

-0.58 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 12

+0.02s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed8th of 12

99.6%

One-paced late

Stride length6th of 12

7.27 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Aug 24Bath1mFirm55th——True39.5 +0.0096.4+0.12

19 Jul 24Nottingham1m2f50yGd/Sft55th——Slow early37.7 -1.27104.3-0.08

8 Jul 24Ripon1mGd/Frm56th——True38.1 -0.4698.0—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.49slow2f+0.57slow3f+0.66fast4f+0.58fast5f+0.47par6f+0.77very slow7f+1.53very slow1m+2.76very slow

Timed runs 2024-07-08 to 2024-08-02 · last timed run 722 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs MINERS GAMBLE (IRE) (read through BEAMING LIGHT, SCARFO) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · thin Timeform history (0 figures)

ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formOnly 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 404 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“in touch, lost place over 2f out, dropped away”