FORMLAB Race Report — Newcastle 17:10

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Newcastle · 17:10

Class 6 · 5f · Standard to Slow · FIELD MEDIAN OR 50.5

GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 10 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 12:51 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Standard to Slow

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32

FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 6	58	25.9%	51.7%	19%	46.6%
sprints (5-7f)	113	26.5%	55.8%	28.3%	58.4%
handicaps	159	25.2%	59.1%	25.8%	57.2%
mid fields (8-11)	69	21.7%	46.4%	20.3%	46.4%

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Measured on their own past openings, ELLIE'S DE VEGA should reach the front first — roughly 1.3 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (41% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, BLACK CAB (FR) leads on 61, 3pts clear of AURADUE — in form. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is SUGAR BON BON (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making ELLIE'S DE VEGA the 28% favourite — a horse our figures rate 4th.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

BLACK CAB (FR)

OR 54 · Billy Loughnane / Alison Hamilton

MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance

61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (61.0)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 2.49)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 7

AURADUE

OR 53 · Darragh Keenan / Roy Bowring

MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance

58.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (58.0)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

TOO MUCH

OR 55 · Callum Hutchinson / David Thompson

MARKET 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance

52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−8lb below his last winning mark (55 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (52.0)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1SUGAR BON BON (IRE)net +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency − habitually slow away

2AURADUEnet +6figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), runs the dominant winning style here, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency

3ELLIE'S DE VEGAnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, fits the winner profile on recency

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119

BLACK CAB (FR) carries rated well above the mark it last won from. SUGAR BON BON (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge BLACK CAB (FR) lacks: flagged on our watch list.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

contested early pace likely (4 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 38% · prominent racers 30% (118 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, uphill finish — a true stamina test. Draw: Straight course (5f-1m, the only AW straight mile in Britain): slight LOW edge at 5f-6f, shifting to a HIGH-draw (stands-side) advantage towards 7f-1m — on the straight mile stalls 1-2 run well below par while higher/stands-side draws outperform. Winners’ energy signature: 49.6% spent early (band 48.99–50.07%, 190 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.17s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Today 4 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89

17 similar races at NEWCASTLE, 4.5-5.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (41% from the first three favourites). 0% won last time out, 29% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

41% 5yo

35% 6yo+

24% 4yo

Last ran

59% 15-45d

35% within 14d

6% 46-90d

Market

59% 4th+ in the market

24% 3rd favourite

18% favourite

LTO form

71% unplaced last time

29% placed last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–10

12345678910

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–10).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

TOO MUCH HELD-UP 52.3% 97.7 held up without the late gear (6th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

BLACK CAB (FR) PROMINENT 48.7% 101.1 concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — and holds on late

AURADUE MID 50.1% 99.1 one-paced late — 4th of 10 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

LET'S GO HUGO (IRE) HELD-UP 50.3% 100.4 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

SUGAR BON BON (IRE) MID 48.5% 103.3 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

ELLIE'S DE VEGA FRONT 51.9% 98.3 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls

A LADY FOREVER PROMINENT 51.1% 96.5 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f

SALLY ANNE'S DREAM PROMINENT 51.5% 96.5 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f

SPARKLING WINE MID 51.3% 96.9 held up without the late gear (8th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

BREEZE STAR (IRE) MID 51.5% 97.0 held up without the late gear (7th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

ELLIE'S DE VEGAFRONTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

SALLY ANNE'S DREAMPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best

A LADY FOREVERPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.18s off the field’s best

BLACK CAB (FR)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best

measured on their own past openings, ELLIE'S DE VEGA should reach the front first — roughly 1.3 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 BLACK CAB (FR) PROMINENT

DRAW 4 · OR 54 · Billy Loughnane / Alison Hamilton

MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance

61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, in form; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

61.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 61

Official mark (OR)

54 · last won off 49

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (2.49)

Days since last run

81

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 101.09% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 19 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 5f22y · rated 613rdClass 6 · 6f22y · rated 519thClass 6 · 6f22y · rated 238thClass 6 · 6f22y · rated 334thClass 6 · 5f22y · rated 42

Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Alison Hamilton

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 61 at/around today's trip, clears the ~58.0 demand

The rider

Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 17/57 · at Newcastle: A/E 1 (n205) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields7th of 10

+0.03 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 10

+0.12s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 10

101.1%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length6th of 10

7.39 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

5 May 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd61st4951True40.7 -0.01101.8+0.06

24 Mar 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd63rd——True40.4 -0.11103.8+0.34

10 Mar 26Wolverhampton6f20yStandard—2nd——True39.4 +0.45102.7+0.08

28 Oct 25Wolverhampton6f20ySlow69th4648True40.6 -0.0297.5+0.09

4 Sep 25Southwell6f16yStd68th4651True38.8 -0.01100.2+0.06

19 Aug 25Wolverhampton5f21yStd64th——True41.9 -0.12100.5+0.07

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2fledpar3fledslow4fledpar5fledpar

Timed runs 2025-08-19 to 2026-05-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs ELLIE'S DE VEGA (read through HENERY HAWK, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND) ≈ -5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs TOO MUCH (read through ASADJUMEIRAH, THUNDERSTORM KATIE) ≈ -5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LET'S GO HUGO (IRE) (read through COLORS OF FREEDOM, CHIEF OF STATE, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, DESERT MASTER) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs A LADY FOREVER (read through COLORS OF FREEDOM, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, DESERT MASTER, CHIEF OF STATE) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

5lb above his last winning mark (54 today vs 49)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (61.0)Improving fast — last run rated 61, 16pts above his recent average of 45.0Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 2.49)BOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-1 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“made all, pushed along home turn, kept on, well on top”

#2 AURADUE MID

DRAW 7 · OR 53 · Darragh Keenan / Roy Bowring

MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−

58.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; one-paced late — 4th of 10 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

58.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 58

Official mark (OR)

53 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

29

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.14% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 5 · 6f · rated 586thClass 4 · 6f · rated 516thClass 5 · 1m · rated 8

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Roy Bowring · 161 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company9/6214.5%1.312/1513.3%1.26

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

On the all-weather11/7514.7%1.130/100.0%0.0

In fields of 8-1111/8213.4%1.160/210.0%0.0

Over 5-6f trips13/8415.5%1.221/195.3%0.5

Coming back after 15 to 45 days6/5910.2%0.991/137.7%0.74

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)0/20.0%0.0—

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/2810.7%1.070/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 58 at/around today's trip, clears the ~58.0 demand

The rider

Darragh Keenan · last 14 days: 4/22 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.15 (n41) · with this yard: A/E 1.15 (n8)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields10th of 10

-0.69 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 10

+0.06s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 10

99.1%

One-paced late

Stride length10th of 10

6.98 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm54th——Slow early40.5 -0.41104.0+0.00

16 May 26Doncaster6fGood46th——True40.0 -0.6499.6+0.04

2 May 26Doncaster1mGd/Frm56th——True38.4 -1.0193.8+0.14

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.08slow2fledvery slow3fledslow4f+0.09par5f+0.19fast6f+0.79fast

Timed runs 2026-05-02 to 2026-06-26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (58.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“disputed lead, went on before halfway, headed 2f out, faded final 1f”

#3 TOO MUCH HELD-UP

DRAW 1 · OR 55 · Callum Hutchinson / David Thompson

MARKET 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−

52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 9pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

52.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 81

Official mark (OR)

55 · last won off 63

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 7 tries

Days since last run

21

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 97.65% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 14lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 50.5 vs 65 last run (CARLISLE · 4 Jul 26)

Headgear

Hood

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 5 · 5f176y · rated 526thClass 5 · 5f176y · rated 5313thClass 5 · 7f22y · rated 183rdClass 6 · 5f · rated 653rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 49

Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David Thompson · 329 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company15/2186.9%0.790/340.0%0.0

At Newcastle16/14710.9%1.270/180.0%0.0

Over 5-6f trips3/744.1%0.450/80.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days15/11612.9%1.480/170.0%0.0

Below their last winning mark3/933.3%3.610/200.0%0.0

On the all-weather16/15010.7%1.250/220.0%0.0

In fields of 8-1111/1537.2%0.830/230.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)5/915.5%0.620/40.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~58.0 demand

The rider

Callum Hutchinson · last 14 days: 2/19 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.58 (n24)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields4th of 10

+0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph9th of 10

+0.42s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed6th of 10

97.7%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 10

7.39 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Carlisle5f182yGood57th5865—40.6 +0.02100.2+0.00—

8 Jun 26Carlisle5f182yGd/Sft56th6168.5True39.9 +0.3695.5+0.35

20 Apr 26Newcastle7f15yStd513th6370.5True40.9 +0.0291.5+0.20

22 Aug 25Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm63rd6463True41.4 +0.11104.2+0.67

20 Jul 25Redcar1mGood53rd6666Fast early40.0 -0.1693.5+0.38

27 Jun 25Newcastle5fStd59th6970True41.6 +0.05101.0+0.92

Timed runs 2025-06-27 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs SALLY ANNE'S DREAM (read through TICKETS, DILIGENT HENRY) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BLACK CAB (FR) (read through ASADJUMEIRAH, THUNDERSTORM KATIE) ≈ +5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LET'S GO HUGO (IRE) (read through HERAKLES, READY FREDDIE GO, GLOBAL EFFORT, NELSON GAY) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs A LADY FOREVER (read through THE GREEN MAN, RORY, CALL GLORY, GLOBAL EFFORT) ≈ +0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

8lb below his last winning mark (55 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (52.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 10 here)

LTO comment

“prominent, led 2f out, headed around 1f out, weakening when short of room final ½f”

#4 ELLIE'S DE VEGA FRONT

DRAW 9 · OR 50 · Billy Garritty / Noel Wilson

MARKET 3.6 · the market rates it a 28% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

51.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 10pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

51.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 62

Official mark (OR)

50 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 7 tries

Days since last run

19

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 98.31% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 5 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time blinkers

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 6 · 6f · rated 513rdClass 5 · 7f44y · rated 503rdClass 6 · 5f110y · rated 524thClass 6 · 6f · rated 573rdClass 6 · 6f · rated 62

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Noel Wilson · 81 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)0/210.0%0.01/812.5%1.28

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company0/190.0%0.00/220.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days0/220.0%0.00/120.0%0.0

On the all-weather0/220.0%0.00/60.0%0.0

In fields of 8-110/270.0%0.00/260.0%0.0

Over 5-6f trips0/250.0%0.01/166.2%0.78

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)0/140.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 64 at/around today's trip, clears the ~58.0 demand

The rider

Billy Garritty · last 14 days: 1/18 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n216) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields5th of 10

+0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 10

-0.03s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5

Finish · closing speed5th of 10

98.3%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 10

7.79 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm65th5252—41.5 -0.1099.5+0.00—

20 Jun 26Ayr7f50ySoft53rd5467True38.7 -0.19103.0-0.10

4 Jun 26Wetherby5f110yGd/Frm63rd5658Fast early43.0 +0.12103.4+0.18

17 May 26Ripon6fGood64th5655True42.6 +0.4194.2—

3 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood63rd5660True41.9 +0.1993.6-0.15

25 Apr 26Haydock Park6fGd/Frm53rd5768True40.7 +0.0096.2-0.08

Timed runs 2026-04-25 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

BREEZE STAR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 10.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

3 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 3rd vs 8th, 9L ahead · OR 56 v 47 · race median 60 (today 50.5)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+10.7L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs SALLY ANNE'S DREAM (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, SO GRATEFUL) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BLACK CAB (FR) (read through HENERY HAWK, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND) ≈ +5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs A LADY FOREVER (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, HENERY HAWK, BABY ROVER) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs SPARKLING WINE (read through POWERNAP, WHAT A TAHOO, DABBLING, SAXON GRACE) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“disputed lead until final 1f, no extra late on”

#5 A LADY FOREVER PROMINENT

DRAW 2 · OR 46 · Barry McHugh / Gary Harrison

MARKET 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−

46 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 15pts off the top, fit and race-ready; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

46 · ranked #5 here · career best 55

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.68)

Days since last run

9

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 96.51% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 50.5 vs 46 last run (HAMILTON PARK · 16 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 6 · 6f · rated 102ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 466thClass 6 · 6f · rated 468thClass 6 · 6f · rated 355thClass 6 · 5f · rated 41

Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Gary Harrison · 89 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 8 to 14 days0/140.0%0.01/520.0%2.63

In Class 6-7 company0/320.0%0.03/378.1%1.16

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)0/140.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

On the all-weather0/280.0%0.01/234.3%0.61

In fields of 8-110/220.0%0.01/283.6%0.67

At Newcastle0/200.0%0.01/166.2%0.78

Over 5-6f trips0/240.0%0.02/306.7%0.85

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 55 is below the ~58.0 the race demands

The rider

Barry McHugh · last 14 days: 1/17 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.91 (n120) · with this yard: A/E 1.24 (n20)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields8th of 10

-0.04 mph

About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 10

+0.18s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed10th of 10

96.5%

One-paced late

Stride length7th of 10

7.38 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Jul 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm67th4546True43.3 -0.1391.0-0.02

2 Jun 26Newcastle5fStd62nd4548.5True42.1 +0.2797.6—

20 May 26Ayr6fGd/Frm66th4648True41.8 -0.5195.0+0.26

7 May 26Redcar5f217yGood68th4652True42.0 -0.2197.3+0.00

12 Mar 26Newcastle5fStd65th——True41.6 +0.17100.3+0.14

6 Mar 26Newcastle5fStd67th——True42.3 +0.1997.8+0.51

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2fledpar3f+0.03par4f+0.22slow5f+0.53very slow6f+2.09very slow

Timed runs 2026-03-06 to 2026-07-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs SALLY ANNE'S DREAM (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, INVINCIBLE ANNICE, GLENDOWN, DORALEE) ≈ +4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LET'S GO HUGO (IRE) (read through RAMON DI LORIA, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, SHATIN VENTURE, LITTLE MI MI) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BLACK CAB (FR) (read through COLORS OF FREEDOM, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, DESERT MASTER, CHIEF OF STATE) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs ELLIE'S DE VEGA (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, HENERY HAWK, BABY ROVER) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.91x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 10 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“raced clear, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final 1f, hung left, kept on”

#6 SUGAR BON BON (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 5 · OR 53 · David Nolan / Peter Niven

MARKET 17.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

45.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 16pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

45.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 45

Official mark (OR)

53 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

21

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s)
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 103.35% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 13 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 4 · 5f · rated 458thClass 4 · 6f · rated 305thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 44

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Peter Niven · 154 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 5-6f trips12/6119.7%1.842/1711.8%1.76

In fields of 8-118/6711.9%1.272/219.5%1.74

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Newcastle2/316.5%0.690/40.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)3/3010.0%1.030/50.0%0.0

On the all-weather11/6516.9%1.610/70.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company17/8320.5%1.991/166.2%0.83

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 45 is below the ~58.0 the race demands

The rider

David Nolan · last 14 days: 0/9 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.01 (n279) · with this yard: A/E 1.41 (n16)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 10

+0.11 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph10th of 10

+0.47s

Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed1st of 10

103.3%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 10

7.52 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Nottingham5fGd/Frm46th———41.5 +0.17102.8+0.72—

11 Jun 26Catterick Bridge5f212yGd/Sft48th——True39.9 +0.15100.8+0.40

29 Apr 26Southwell6f16yStd45th——True39.1 +0.00106.5+0.29

Timed runs 2026-04-29 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 3.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare result

LTO comment

“rear, no impression”

#7 SPARKLING WINE MID

DRAW 8 · OR 47 · Rhys Elliott / Michael Dods

MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

44.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 16.3pts off the top, fit and race-ready; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

44.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 57

Official mark (OR)

47 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 7 tries

Days since last run

2

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s)
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.86% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 8 places on the course scale (SOUTHWELL 21st → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 50.5 vs 47 last run (SOUTHWELL · 23 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 6 · 5f · rated 342ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 575thClass 6 · 5f · rated 432ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 457thClass 4 · 6f · rated 36

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Dods · 1255 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On the all-weather24/2519.6%0.938/6811.8%1.16

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Newcastle14/1658.5%0.861/362.8%0.35

In Class 6-7 company ✦29/28010.4%0.887/858.2%0.69

Too few runners to read reliably

Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)4/508.0%0.52/922.2%0.81

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 55 is below the ~58.0 the race demands

The rider

Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 1/25 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.66 (n141) · with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n140)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 10

+0.08 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 10

+0.21s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed8th of 10

96.9%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 10

7.47 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

23 Jul 26Southwell4f214yStd64th4647True41.8 -0.5497.7+0.00

14 Jul 26Beverley5fGd/Frm62nd4554True40.4 +0.1499.3+0.30

23 Jun 26Beverley5fGd/Frm65th4553True40.9 -0.22100.6+0.11

11 Jun 26Catterick Bridge5fGd/Sft62nd4752.5True42.3 -0.1197.9+0.42

17 May 26Ripon6fGd/Frm47th——True42.3 +0.9391.9—

8 May 26Ripon6fGood44th——True41.6 +0.2793.7-0.02

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.10fast2f+0.10slow3f+0.18par4f+0.43slow5f+0.96very slow

Timed runs 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-23. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs ELLIE'S DE VEGA (read through POWERNAP, WHAT A TAHOO, DABBLING, SAXON GRACE) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Race-fit — ran 2 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“in touch, challenged over 1f out, kept on final 1f”

#8 LET'S GO HUGO (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 10 · OR 51 · T. Kiely-Marshall / Ollie Pears

MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

43.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

8th on the figures, 18pts off the top, a yard in form; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

43.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 73

Official mark (OR)

51 · last won off 55

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 36 tries · below market expectation (0.53)

Days since last run

60

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 100.4% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 18 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 6 · 6f · rated 4310thClass 6 · 6f · rated 447thClass 6 · 5f · rated 338thClass 6 · 5f · rated 524thClass 6 · 5f · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ollie Pears · 333 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.7 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 46 to 90 days4/1526.7%2.74—

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Newcastle4/468.7%1.580/80.0%0.0

On the all-weather8/938.6%1.090/160.0%0.0

In fields of 8-1116/1689.5%1.341/352.9%0.32

Over 5-6f trips13/1449.0%1.163/417.3%0.7

In Class 6-7 company11/1268.7%0.972/267.7%0.72

Too few runners to read reliably

Below their last winning mark (small sample)1/382.6%0.331/333.3%3.9

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~58.0 demand

The rider

T. Kiely-Marshall · last 14 days: 1/12 · at Newcastle: A/E 0.68 (n84) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n16)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields6th of 10

+0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 42.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 10

+0.41s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed3rd of 10

100.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 10

7.69 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 May 26Redcar5f217yGd/Frm68th5352.5True41.3 -0.27101.0+0.62

7 May 26Redcar5f217yGood610th5551.5True41.5 -0.0598.6+0.20

22 Apr 26Catterick Bridge5fGd/Frm67th5657.5True43.9 +1.04101.8+0.49

2 Apr 26Southwell4f214yStd68th5856Fast early43.3 +0.4299.2+0.36

11 Mar 26Newcastle5fStd64th6058True41.5 -0.12101.6+0.32

31 Oct 25Southwell4f214yStd68th6161.5True41.7 -0.70100.2+0.44

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.28very slow2f+1.07par3f+1.10par4f+1.27par5f+1.11par6f+0.94slow

Timed runs 2025-10-31 to 2026-05-26. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs SALLY ANNE'S DREAM (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, GLENDOWN, DORALEE, GOLDEN PROSPERITY) ≈ +5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BLACK CAB (FR) (read through COLORS OF FREEDOM, CHIEF OF STATE, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, DESERT MASTER) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs A LADY FOREVER (read through RAMON DI LORIA, NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, SHATIN VENTURE, LITTLE MI MI) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs TOO MUCH (read through HERAKLES, READY FREDDIE GO, GLOBAL EFFORT, NELSON GAY) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

4lb below his last winning mark (51 today vs 55)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 2.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 6 here)

LTO comment

“slowly away, soon detached, headway over 1f out, never nearer”

#9 BREEZE STAR (IRE) MID

DRAW 6 · OR 46 · Alex Jary / Noel Wilson

MARKET 110 · the market rates it a 1% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

32.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

9th on the figures, 29pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

32.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 48

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 6 tries

Days since last run

47

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 97.02% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 12 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → NEWCASTLE 13th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 6 · 5f176y · rated 328thClass 6 · 6f · rated 228thClass 6 · 5f · rated 296thClass 6 · 6f · rated 278thClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 32

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Noel Wilson · 81 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)0/210.0%0.01/812.5%1.28

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company0/190.0%0.00/220.0%0.0

Coming back after 46 to 90 days0/50.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

On the all-weather0/220.0%0.00/60.0%0.0

In fields of 8-110/270.0%0.00/260.0%0.0

Over 5-6f trips0/250.0%0.01/166.2%0.78

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newcastle (small sample)0/140.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 48 is below the ~58.0 the race demands

The rider

Alex Jary · last 14 days: 1/17 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.05 (n182) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields9th of 10

-0.14 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 10

+0.13s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed7th of 10

97.0%

One-paced late

Stride length9th of 10

7.15 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Jun 26Carlisle5f182yGd/Sft67th4649True37.4 -0.3199.5+0.14

3 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood68th4760True41.7 -0.0393.0+0.17

17 Oct 25Redcar5fGood68th5052True40.8 -0.27101.1+0.06

4 Oct 25Newcastle6fSlow66th5361.5True39.4 +0.0595.5+0.07

13 Sep 25Musselburgh7f15yGd/Sft48th——Fast early38.5 +0.2294.3+0.21

8 Aug 25Musselburgh5fGd/Frm25th——True40.7 -0.5298.7+0.11

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.54slow2f+0.55very slow3f+0.63par4f+0.75fast5f+0.92par6f+1.28slow

Timed runs 2025-08-08 to 2026-06-08. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

ELLIE'S DE VEGA · 1 meeting≈ 10.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

3 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 8th vs 3rd, 9L behind · OR 47 v 56 · race median 60 (today 50.5)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-10.7L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“waited with, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”

#10 SALLY ANNE'S DREAM PROMINENT

DRAW 3 · OR 46 · Faye McManoman / Suzzanne France

MARKET 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance

21 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

10th on the figures, 40pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

21 · ranked #10 here · career best 43

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 10 tries

Days since last run

29

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 96.54% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

12thClass 6 · 6f · rated 137thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 318thClass 6 · 5f · rated 196thClass 5 · 5f · rated 308thClass 6 · 6f · rated 21

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Suzzanne France

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 43 is below the ~58.0 the race demands

The rider

Faye McManoman · last 14 days: 2/7 · at Newcastle: A/E 1.16 (n130) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n5)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 50.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields1st of 10

+0.18 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 41.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 10

+0.09s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed9th of 10

96.5%

One-paced late

Stride length8th of 10

7.36 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 Jun 26Newcastle6fSlow612th4648Fast early41.9 +0.2293.0—

25 Nov 25Wolverhampton5f21ySlow57th——True41.3 +0.43100.4+0.09

23 Sep 25Southwell4f214yStd56th——True41.6 -0.3398.0-0.03

29 Aug 25Thirsk6fGood68th——True41.9 +0.3394.4+0.02

24 Sep 24Beverley5fGood—7th——Fast early40.5 +0.4395.5+0.23

12 Sep 24Newcastle5fSlow67th4660True42.5 -0.0297.9+0.14

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.18par2f+0.23fast3f+0.22fast4f+0.22par5f+0.77very slow6f+2.25very slow

Timed runs 2024-09-12 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs TOO MUCH (read through TICKETS, DILIGENT HENRY) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs ELLIE'S DE VEGA (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, SO GRATEFUL) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LET'S GO HUGO (IRE) (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, GLENDOWN, DORALEE, GOLDEN PROSPERITY) ≈ -5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs A LADY FOREVER (read through NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND, INVINCIBLE ANNICE, GLENDOWN, DORALEE) ≈ -4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“tracked pace, weakened 2f out”