FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
York · 13:30
Class 4 · 5f · Good to Firm (Good in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 74
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 17 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:52 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Good in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 47225%58.3%29.2%62.5%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (45% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, LETHAL NYMPH leads on 90, 2pts clear of ALMATY STAR (IRE) — prominent in the betting. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is DREAM DEAL — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes LETHAL NYMPH the 18% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
LETHAL NYMPH
OR 80 · Jonathan Burke / Paul Midgley
MARKET backed 6.4 → 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
90.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 17
ALMATY STAR (IRE)
OR 79 · Charlie Todd / Robert Cowell
MARKET drifting 22 → 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
88.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (88.0)Jockey goes well at this track (8.0x market expectation)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
EMERALD HARMONY (IRE)
OR 78 · Jonathan England / Paul Midgley
MARKET drifting 9 → 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Rated #3 in this field (86.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ALMATY STAR (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position
2MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency, meets much weaker company by the marks
3LETHAL NYMPHnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. ALMATY STAR (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge LETHAL NYMPH lacks: among the two fastest on speed against its past fields.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE)  FIGURE #5
Mark Walford's runners on turf win 11.1% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
HARB  FIGURE #15
Tristan Davidson's runners on turf win 16.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (6 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 44% · prominent racers 25% (36 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, flat, galloping 5f run-in; most horses get a clear run finish. Draw: Generally fair on the wide round course, but a real bias exists in big-field sprint handicaps (5f-6f): on good, low/inside edge in big fields. soft often flips the advantage to the far (high) side. Winners’ energy signature: 50.1% spent early (band 49.66–50.52%, 49 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.16s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Today 6 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
22 similar races at YORK, 4.0-6.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (45% from the first three favourites). 23% won last time out, 32% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
55% 4yo
32% 6yo+
9% 5yo
Last ran
64% 15-45d
32% within 14d
5% 46-90d
Market
55% 4th+ in the market
27% 2nd favourite
9% 3rd favourite
LTO form
45% unplaced last time
32% placed last time
23% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 17 runners · stalls 1–17
1234567891011121314151617
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–17).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LETHAL NYMPH is 0/3 on softer ground · ALMATY STAR (IRE) is 1/4 on softer ground · EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) is 0/9 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE) PROMINENT 51.7% 95.8 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
LETHAL NYMPH PROMINENT 50.2% 99.1 concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
ALMATY STAR (IRE) FRONT 49.7% 97.5 a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f
EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) MID 49.8% 101.1 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ROBERTO CARO (IRE) HELD-UP 50.6% 99.8 one-paced late — 5th of 17 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
KING'S CALL (IRE) MID 50.6% 98.0 held up without the late gear (13th of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) FRONT 50.9% 99.8 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
SPORTS COACH (IRE) MID 50.0% 99.3 one-paced late — 9th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) MID 52.3% 96.1 held up without the late gear (16th of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) PROMINENT 50.3% 99.4 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
CAYMAN TAI (IRE) HELD-UP 50.2% 99.3 one-paced late — 10th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) HELD-UP 49.7% 100.8 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
VENTURA EXPRESS MID 49.9% 100.0 one-paced late — 4th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
CAMELEY DAYS FRONT 51.2% 96.8 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
HARB MID 50.5% 98.7 one-paced late — 12th of 17 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
DREAM DEAL HELD-UP 50.3% 102.3 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BAYRAAT MID 50.8% 99.6 one-paced late — 7th of 17 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
CAMELEY DAYSFRONTtypically ~2.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
ALMATY STAR (IRE)FRONTtypically ~2.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.29s off the best)
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.22s off the best)
LETHAL NYMPHPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 LETHAL NYMPH PROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 80 · Jonathan Burke / Paul Midgley
MARKET backed 6.4 → 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
90.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 2pts clear of the next, prominent in the betting; concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
90.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 99
Official mark (OR)
80 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 33 tries · below market expectation (0.53)
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.12% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 18 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 20th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 905thClass 4 · 6f · rated 838thClass 2 · 5f · rated 744thClass 2 · 5f · rated 8510thClass 4 · 5f · rated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LETHAL NYMPHbest 99needs 88–892025-03-12 · TFR 69 · 5f22y · Slow · C32025-04-10 · TFR 83 · 6f · Slow · C32025-04-30 · TFR 86 · 5f · Good · C42025-05-03 · TFR 45 · 5f · Good · C32025-05-15 · TFR 40 · 5f · Good · C22025-09-14 · TFR 85 · 5f · Good · C42025-09-27 · TFR 45 · 5f · Good · C22025-10-20 · TFR 88 · 5f · Heavy · C42025-11-06 · TFR 92 · 5f · Slow · C42025-11-20 · TFR 90 · 5f · Slow · C32025-12-09 · TFR 79 · 5f · Slow · C32025-12-22 · TFR 88 · 6f20y · Slow · C42026-01-13 · TFR 90 · 5f · Slow · C42026-04-07 · TFR 77 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C22026-05-01 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-14 · TFR 85 · 5f · Good · C22026-05-23 · TFR 74 · 5f · Good · C22026-06-13 · TFR 83 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-21 · TFR 90 · 5f · Good · C412 Mar 2521 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Paul Midgley · 846 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Back at their last winning mark3/1717.6%1.272/1711.8%1.19
In Class 4-5 company ✦41/37710.9%1.0714/11612.1%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+2/434.7%0.881/254.0%0.61
At this time of year (Q3)28/24011.7%1.022/258.0%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/39811.3%1.039/959.5%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/260.0%0.00/150.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 99 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
The rider
Jonathan Burke · at York: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 17
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 17
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 17
99.1%
One-paced late
Stride length12th of 17
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Jun 26Pontefract5fGood42nd7876True41.6 +0.00100.2+0.14
13 Jun 26York6fGood45th7981True42.2 -0.0595.8+0.09
23 May 26York5fGood28th8087True42.3 +0.0399.6+0.17
14 May 26York5fGood24th8188True42.3 -0.1899.4+0.15
1 May 26Ascot5fGd/Frm410th8379True41.5 -0.14102.5+0.01
7 Apr 26Pontefract5fGd/Sft26th8492Fast early40.2 -0.4297.2+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.09par2f+0.10par3f+0.15slow4f+0.16par5f+0.02par
Timed runs 2026-04-07 to 2026-06-21. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SPORTS COACH (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 8th, 2.3L ahead · OR 79 v 76 · race median 81 (today 74)
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) · 3 meetings · n/a
15 May 25 · 5f · Good — finished 15th vs 5th, 9.5L behind · OR 79 v 81 · race median 90 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
VENTURA EXPRESS · 3 meetings≈ 0.6L ahead on today's terms · confirms
21 Jun 26 · 5f · Good — finished 2nd vs 6th, 1.9L ahead · OR 78 v 73 · race median 76 (today 74)
ALMATY STAR (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
12 Mar 25 · 5f21y · Slow — finished 6th vs 2nd, 4.45L behind · OR 83 v 86 · race median 86 (today 74) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
15 May 25 · 5f · Good — finished 15th vs 16th, 3.5L ahead · OR 79 v 81 · race median 90 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
BAYRAAT · 1 meeting≈ 9.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
14 Sep 25 · 5f · Good — finished 1st vs 14th, 9.75L ahead · OR 78 v 59 · race median 72 (today 74)
KING'S CALL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
1 May 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 13th, 2.5L ahead · OR 83 v 82 · race median 79 (today 74)
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 13th, 4.2L ahead · OR 79 v 81 · race median 81 (today 74)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (+2.0L adj, 7 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HARB (read through JOJO RABBIT, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, STIRRUP CUP, IRISH NECTAR) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAYMAN TAI (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, DARK CLOUD RISING, GALLANT) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) (read through I'M NEXT, GOYARD, REIGNING PROFIT, AL HUSSAR) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DREAM DEAL (read through ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, JOJO RABBIT, THE GOOD BISCUIT, SOLAR BIRICZ) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along over 1f out, kept on final 100 yds, just failed”
#2 ALMATY STAR (IRE) FRONT
DRAW 17 · OR 79 · Charlie Todd / Robert Cowell
MARKET drifting 22 → 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
88.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 2pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f.
FormLab Figure
88.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 34 tries · below market expectation (0.85)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 97.5% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 21 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 78 last run (LINGFIELD PARK · 6 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 888thClass 3 · 5f22y · rated 7718thClass 2 · 5f · rated 41stClass 4 · 5f44y · rated 892ndClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 84
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ALMATY STAR (IRE)best 92needs 88–892025-02-08 · TFR 91 · 5f22y · Slow · C32025-03-12 · TFR 92 · 5f22y · Slow · C32025-04-06 · TFR 86 · 4f213y · Std · C32025-04-22 · TFR 58 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-05-23 · TFR 81 · 5f · Good · C32025-07-01 · TFR 85 · 5f · Slow · C32025-07-11 · TFR 58 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-16 · TFR 70 · 5f33y · Gd/Frm · C32025-09-04 · TFR 64 · 5f · Std · C32025-12-04 · TFR 89 · 5f · Slow · C42025-12-11 · TFR 83 · 5f · Slow · C42025-12-31 · TFR 83 · 5f · Std · C32026-01-12 · TFR 89 · 5f · Std · C42026-02-20 · TFR 85 · 4f213y · Std/Slow · C42026-03-09 · TFR 84 · 5f22y · Std · C42026-04-11 · TFR 89 · 5f42y · Good · C42026-06-06 · TFR 4 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C22026-06-22 · TFR 77 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-06 · TFR 88 · 5f · Std/Slow · C48 Feb 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Robert Cowell · 529 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark17/13812.3%0.899/5516.4%1.38
Coming back after 15 to 45 days19/2178.8%0.8311/7015.7%1.27
In Class 4-5 company ✦31/20415.2%1.27/3917.9%1.23
On turf22/2289.6%1.09/6913.0%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1517.3%0.781/137.7%0.51
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)1/147.1%1.171/333.3%9.14
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/293.4%0.831/1010.0%2.99
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
The rider
Charlie Todd · at York: A/E 8 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 17
+0.31 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 17
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed14th of 17
97.5%
One-paced late
Stride length13th of 17
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Lingfield5fStd/Slow43rd8078Fast early42.8 -0.41100.2+0.00
22 Jun 26Windsor5f21yGd/Frm38th8283Fast early42.7 +0.2697.8—
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs5fGd/Sft218th8388Fast early44.4 -0.2390.0+0.08
13 May 26Yarmouth5f42yGood————True42.7 +1.60—+1.53—
11 Apr 26Yarmouth5f42yGood41st7575.5Fast early43.1 +0.9697.0-0.23
9 Mar 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd42nd7977True40.5 -0.32102.6+0.08
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.11fast2f+0.28par3f+0.30par4f+0.04slow5f+0.16very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-09 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split; 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
SPORTS COACH (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
20 Feb 26 · 4f214y · Std/Slow — finished 4th vs 2nd, 1.05L behind · OR 80 v 78 · race median 78 (today 74)
LETHAL NYMPH · 2 meetings · n/a
12 Mar 25 · 5f21y · Slow — finished 2nd vs 6th, 4.45L ahead · OR 86 v 83 · race median 86 (today 74) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
12 Mar 25 · 5f21y · Slow — finished 2nd vs 8th, 6.3L ahead · OR 86 v 80 · race median 86 (today 74) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
KING'S CALL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
16 Aug 25 · 5f34y · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 10th, 2.5L ahead · OR 83 v 88 · race median 84 (today 74)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-0.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) (read through EMPEROR SPIRIT, MASTER OF MY FATE) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAMELEY DAYS (read through FAUSTUS, FLETCHER'S FLIGHT) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROBERTO CARO (IRE) (read through KING OF LIGHT, BETSEN, STAR CHORUS, JUAN LES PINS) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) (read through DREAM COMPOSER, THUNDER STAR, ROACH POWER, VINTAGE CLARETS) ≈ +4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (88.0)Jockey goes well at this track (8.0x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“quickly away, chased leader, led final 1f, headed final 100 yds, no extra”
#3 EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) MID
DRAW 4 · OR 78 · Jonathan England / Paul Midgley
MARKET drifting 9 → 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 4pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 27 tries · below market expectation (0.87)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.1% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 80.5 last run (YORK · 10 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 862ndClass 3 · 5f · rated 861stClass 5 · 5f · rated 863rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 7610thClass 4 · 5f · rated 71
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for EMERALD HARMONY (IRE)needs 88–89best 862025-03-16 · TFR 74 · 6f · Soft2025-04-05 · TFR 86 · 5f · Good2025-04-12 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good2025-05-17 · TFR 58 · 5f · Good2025-05-27 · TFR 75 · 5f · Gd/Sft2025-06-13 · TFR 79 · 5f · Gd/Sft2025-06-20 · TFR 62 · 5f · Good2025-07-03 · TFR 72 · 5f · Good2025-07-20 · TFR 55 · 5f · Soft2025-08-08 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm2025-08-23 · TFR 85 · 5f · Good2025-10-01 · TFR 78 · 5f · Soft2026-03-19 · TFR 84 · 5f · Std · C42026-04-12 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-04 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-16 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-31 · TFR 76 · 5f9y · Good · C42026-06-16 · TFR 86 · 5f · Good · C52026-07-03 · TFR 86 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-10 · TFR 86 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C416 Mar 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Paul Midgley · 846 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company ✦41/37710.9%1.0714/11612.1%1.18
Above their last winning mark ✦29/24212.0%1.0111/9212.0%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+2/434.7%0.881/254.0%0.61
At this time of year (Q3)28/24011.7%1.022/258.0%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/39811.3%1.039/959.5%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/260.0%0.00/150.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
The rider
Jonathan England · at York: A/E 0 (n3) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 17
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 17
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 17
101.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 17
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26York5fGd/Frm43rd7880.5Fast early43.5 +0.4599.2+0.17
3 Jul 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm32nd7878True41.4 -0.03103.4+0.01
16 Jun 26Thirsk5fGood51st7472True42.4 +0.20100.2+0.27
31 May 26Nottingham5fGood43rd7684True41.8 -0.27102.0+0.06
16 May 26Thirsk5fGood410th7776Fast early42.6 +0.00101.2+0.23
4 May 26Beverley5fGd/Sft43rd7777True40.4 -0.14100.5+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.41par2f+0.46par3f+0.30par4f+0.16par5f+0.11par
Timed runs 2026-05-04 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
VENTURA EXPRESS · 2 meetings≈ 1.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
4 May 26 · 5f · Gd/Sft — finished 3rd vs 4th, 0.3L ahead · OR 77 v 76 · race median 77 (today 74)
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
12 Apr 26 · 5f · Gd/Sft — finished 7th vs 2nd, 2.85L behind · OR 78 v 73 · race median 74 (today 74)
TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 10th vs 5th, 1.85L behind · OR 77 v 71 · race median 76 (today 74)
Read through a common rival
vs BAYRAAT (read through COPPER KNIGHT, AL HUSSAR, ARNHEM, BLIND BEGGAR) ≈ +4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HARB (read through LION'S HOUSE, CALL TO ACTION, JM JHINGREE, ALBEGONE) ≈ +4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DREAM DEAL (read through HOVER ON THE WIND, KING'S CROWN) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROBERTO CARO (IRE) (read through ETERNAL SUNSHINE, LION'S HOUSE, ORIENTAL PRINCE, PADDY'S DAY) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 74)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (86.0)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.66 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway over 1f out, upsides final 1f, no extra final 100 yds”
#4 SPORTS COACH (IRE) MID
DRAW 10 · OR 75 · Sean Quinlan / Antony Brittain
MARKET backed 11.5 → 8.2 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−
85.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 5pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
1 win from 16 tries · below market expectation (0.72)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.32% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 11 places on the course scale (NEWCASTLE 13th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 67.5 last run (NEWCASTLE · 26 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 858thClass 4 · 6f · rated 729thClass 2 · 5f · rated 726thClass 2 · 5f · rated 808thClass 3 · 5f · rated 76
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SPORTS COACH (IRE)best 91needs 88–892025-03-12 · TFR 78 · 5f22y · Slow · C32025-04-06 · TFR 32 · 4f213y · Std · C32025-07-11 · TFR 81 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-25 · TFR 70 · 6f · Good · C42025-08-09 · TFR 81 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32026-02-20 · TFR 88 · 4f213y · Std/Slow · C42026-03-14 · TFR 88 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-03-27 · TFR 85 · 5f · Std · C42026-04-15 · TFR 91 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32026-05-02 · TFR 76 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32026-05-14 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C22026-05-23 · TFR 72 · 5f · Good · C22026-06-13 · TFR 72 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-26 · TFR 85 · 5f · Slow · C512 Mar 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Antony Brittain · 613 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+0/180.0%0.01/244.2%1.48
Over 5-6f trips21/3296.4%0.8212/11410.5%1.19
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1616.8%0.977/888.0%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York0/140.0%0.00/140.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)3/853.5%0.810/150.0%0.0
On turf0/1000.0%0.01/561.8%0.39
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
The rider
Sean Quinlan · at York: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 17
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph14th of 17
+0.32s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 17
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 17
7.87 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle5fSlow52nd7567.5Fast early43.2 +0.05100.5—
13 Jun 26York6fGood48th7681True42.5 +0.2796.0+0.46
23 May 26York5fGood29th7887True42.0 -0.2499.5+0.22
14 May 26York5fGood26th7988True42.5 +0.0099.1+0.23
2 May 26Thirsk5fGd/Frm38th8184True43.8 +0.87100.5+0.56
15 Apr 26Beverley5fGd/Sft34th8284.5True41.3 +0.19100.4+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.33par2f+0.29par3f+0.14par4f+0.13par5f+0.17par
Timed runs 2026-04-15 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LETHAL NYMPH · 4 meetings≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 8th vs 5th, 2.3L behind · OR 76 v 79 · race median 81 (today 74)
ALMATY STAR (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
20 Feb 26 · 4f214y · Std/Slow — finished 2nd vs 4th, 1.05L ahead · OR 78 v 80 · race median 78 (today 74)
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
27 Mar 26 · 5f · Std — finished 5th vs 2nd, 1.5L behind · OR 83 v 80 · race median 82 (today 74)
HARB · 1 meeting≈ 4.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jun 26 · 5f · Slow — finished 2nd vs 8th, 5.55L ahead · OR 75 v 66 · race median 68 (today 74)
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 8th vs 13th, 1.9L ahead · OR 76 v 81 · race median 81 (today 74)
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
25 Jul 25 · 6f · Good — finished 12th vs 10th, 0.2L behind · OR 79 v 70 · race median 75 (today 74)
Read through a common rival
vs CAYMAN TAI (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, SMART VISION, ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, NOGO'S DREAM) ≈ +5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) (read through I'M NEXT, REIGNING PROFIT, EQUITY LAW, SMART VISION) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VENTURA EXPRESS (read through I'M NEXT, COPPER KNIGHT, REIGNING PROFIT, ELEGANT ERIN) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs KING'S CALL (IRE) (read through DURAN, COPPER KNIGHT, EL BUFALO, ETERNAL SUNSHINE) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (75 today vs 79)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 85, 8pts above his recent average of 76.3Lost roughly 2.1 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“in touch, under pressure 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, beaten 1f out”
#5 KODIAC THRILLER (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 80 · Jamie Hamilton / Mark Walford
MARKET 11.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 7pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
80 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 22 tries · below market expectation (0.77)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 95.8% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (RIPON 14th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 5f · rated 8313thClass 4 · 6f · rated 7110thClass 3 · 6f · rated 561stClass 4 · 6f · rated 8617thClass 3 · 6f · rated 28
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for KODIAC THRILLER (IRE)best 89needs 88–892025-04-30 · TFR 75 · 6f · Good · C42025-05-17 · TFR 88 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-31 · TFR 89 · 5f · Firm · C22025-06-26 · TFR 85 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-18 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-26 · TFR 86 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-04 · TFR 89 · 6f · Good · C32025-08-16 · TFR 87 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-14 · TFR 85 · 6f · Gd/Sft2025-09-29 · TFR 69 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-10-18 · TFR 69 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C22026-03-29 · TFR 28 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32026-04-16 · TFR 86 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-08 · TFR 56 · 6f · Good · C32026-06-13 · TFR 71 · 6f · Good · C42026-07-06 · TFR 83 · 5f · Good · C430 Apr 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Mark Walford · 415 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: switching jockey after a defeat
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+0/190.0%0.01/128.3%2.69
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1358.1%0.928/5414.8%1.73
Over 5-6f trips5/726.9%1.035/3613.9%1.5
In Class 4-5 company9/1605.6%0.887/5812.1%1.45
Above their last winning mark10/5318.9%1.436/4214.3%1.44
On turf ✦24/2499.6%1.0610/9011.1%1.29
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/120.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
The rider
Jamie Hamilton · at York: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 17
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 17
-0.05s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 5
Finish · closing speed17th of 17
95.8%
One-paced late
Stride length15th of 17
7.32 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon5fGood44th8073True42.5 +0.04100.5—
13 Jun 26York6fGood413th8181True42.1 -0.1094.5-0.13
8 May 26Ascot6fGood310th8187.5True40.1 -0.5896.0-0.06
16 Apr 26Ripon6fGd/Sft41st7979True41.8 +0.0796.0-0.07
29 Mar 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft317th8186True39.0 -0.2592.8+0.00
29 Sep 25Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft34th8379.5True44.0 +0.3495.0+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.31par2f+0.32par3f+0.34par4f+0.30par5f+0.29slow
Timed runs 2025-09-29 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 39.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 5f · Good — finished 4th vs 9th, 39.55L ahead · OR 80 v 75 · race median 73 (today 74)
LETHAL NYMPH · 1 meeting≈ 3.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 5th, 4.2L behind · OR 81 v 79 · race median 81 (today 74)
SPORTS COACH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 8th, 1.9L behind · OR 81 v 76 · race median 81 (today 74)
TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 5f · Good — finished 4th vs 7th, 2.05L ahead · OR 80 v 73 · race median 73 (today 74)
ROBERTO CARO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L behind on today's terms · reverses
16 Apr 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 1st vs 4th, 0.65L ahead · OR 79 v 82 · race median 79 (today 74)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (+6.9L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) (read through AL HUSSAR, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, LION'S HOUSE, CHANGEOFMIND) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VENTURA EXPRESS (read through GOYARD, I'M NEXT, WEN MOON, CHANGEOFMIND) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BAYRAAT (read through WEN MOON, BONNIE'S BOY, ROCK OF ENGLAND, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DREAM DEAL (read through ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE, FORTAMOUR) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 83, 13pts above his recent average of 70.0Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led group, under pressure approaching 2f out, beaten when hung left 1f out, eased final 50 yds”
#6 VENTURA EXPRESS MID
DRAW 3 · OR 71 · Tristan Durrell / Paul Midgley
MARKET backed 26 → 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 12pts off the top, backed since the morning; one-paced late — 4th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 30 tries · below market expectation (0.88)
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.04% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 18 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 20th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 4 · 5f · rated 784thClass 5 · 5f · rated 734thClass 4 · 5f · rated 785thClass 4 · 5f · rated 753rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 83
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for VENTURA EXPRESSbest 95needs 88–892025-03-20 · TFR 90 · 5f · Slow · C22025-04-08 · TFR 81 · 5f · Good · C22025-04-26 · TFR 82 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C22025-05-15 · TFR 61 · 5f · Good · C22025-06-07 · TFR 72 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-04 · TFR 87 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-27 · TFR 87 · 5f · Good · C42025-08-17 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C32025-09-20 · TFR 83 · 5f110y · Heavy · C42025-10-04 · TFR 44 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-01-22 · TFR 76 · 5f · Std · C42026-03-19 · TFR 83 · 5f · Std · C42026-04-23 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-04 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-22 · TFR 73 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-21 · TFR 78 · 5f · Good · C420 Mar 2521 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Paul Midgley · 846 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark9/9010.0%1.064/2516.0%1.19
In Class 4-5 company ✦41/37710.9%1.0714/11612.1%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+2/434.7%0.881/254.0%0.61
At this time of year (Q3)28/24011.7%1.022/258.0%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/39811.3%1.039/959.5%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/260.0%0.00/150.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 17
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 17
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 17
100.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 17
7.56 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Jun 26Pontefract5fGood46th7376True41.9 +0.34100.2+0.12
22 May 26Pontefract5fGd/Sft54th7570True40.9 -0.1398.2+0.00
4 May 26Beverley5fGd/Sft44th7677True40.6 +0.12101.2+0.24
23 Apr 26Beverley5fGood45th7777Fast early41.6 -0.3197.3+0.03
19 Mar 26Newcastle5fStd43rd7777True41.9 +0.25102.5+0.00
22 Jan 26Newcastle5fStd46th7978.5True42.7 -0.30100.8-0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.35par2f+0.20fast3f+0.25slow4f+0.35slow5f+0.32par
Timed runs 2026-01-22 to 2026-06-21. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LETHAL NYMPH · 3 meetings≈ 0.6L behind on today's terms · reverses
21 Jun 26 · 5f · Good — finished 6th vs 2nd, 1.9L behind · OR 73 v 78 · race median 76 (today 74)
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
7 Jun 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 13th, 1L ahead · OR 82 v 80 · race median 82 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
15 May 25 · 5f · Good — finished 13th vs 16th, 7.45L ahead · OR 84 v 81 · race median 90 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
4 May 26 · 5f · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.3L behind · OR 76 v 77 · race median 77 (today 74)
TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
23 Apr 26 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 9th, 3.65L ahead · OR 77 v 74 · race median 77 (today 74)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+2.0L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SPORTS COACH (IRE) (read through I'M NEXT, COPPER KNIGHT, REIGNING PROFIT, ELEGANT ERIN) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAYMAN TAI (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, LAW OF AVERAGE, MISSION COMMAND, WEN MOON) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) (read through I'M NEXT, HUNDRED CAPS, ELEGANT ERIN) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DREAM DEAL (read through JOJO RABBIT, LUCIUS AURELIUS, AY GEE ELL, BETWEENTHESTICKS) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
13lb below his last winning mark (71 today vs 84)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along over 1f out, weakening when short of room close home”
#7 KING'S CALL (IRE) MID
DRAW 5 · OR 76 · Jonjo O'Neill Jr. / Lawrence Mullaney
MARKET backed 34 → 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 15pts off the top, backed since the morning; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
76 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.56)
Days since last run
55
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.98% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (THIRSK 12th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 79 last run (THIRSK · 31 May 26)
Headgear
First-time blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
11thClass 4 · 5f · rated 7513thClass 4 · 5f · rated 6713thClass 3 · 6f · rated 3410thClass 3 · 5f44y · rated 6618thClass 2 · 6f · rated 67
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for KING'S CALL (IRE)best 89needs 88–892025-06-14 · TFR 81 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-06-20 · TFR 89 · 5f · Firm · C22025-07-26 · TFR 67 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-16 · TFR 66 · 5f33y · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-29 · TFR 34 · 6f · Good · C32026-05-01 · TFR 67 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-31 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C414 Jun 2531 May 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Lawrence Mullaney · 111 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf1/224.5%0.472/1711.8%1.49
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company1/205.0%1.890/80.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips0/120.0%0.00/100.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/214.8%0.680/80.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)0/50.0%0.01/250.0%4.48
At York (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)—0/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields16th of 17
-0.22 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 17
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed13th of 17
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 17
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
31 May 26Thirsk5fGood411th7979True43.7 -0.09102.4+0.14
1 May 26Ascot5fGd/Frm413th8279True41.6 -0.10101.3+0.08
29 Aug 25Thirsk6fGood313th8585.5True41.6 -0.6293.6+0.49
16 Aug 25Newbury5f34yGd/Frm310th8884True43.5 -0.1995.4+0.21
26 Jul 25York6fGd/Frm218th9194True41.8 -0.2994.5+0.09
20 Jun 25Ascot5fFirm28th9493True42.8 -0.03100.7+0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.27par2f+0.28fast3f+0.26par4f+0.30slow5f+0.49very slow
Timed runs 2025-06-20 to 2026-05-31. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LETHAL NYMPH · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
1 May 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 13th vs 10th, 2.5L behind · OR 82 v 83 · race median 79 (today 74)
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
31 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 11th vs 12th, 2L ahead · OR 79 v 80 · race median 79 (today 74)
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
31 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 11th vs 13th, 3.25L ahead · OR 79 v 79 · race median 79 (today 74)
ALMATY STAR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
16 Aug 25 · 5f34y · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 7th, 2.5L behind · OR 88 v 83 · race median 84 (today 74)
Read through a common rival
vs SPORTS COACH (IRE) (read through DURAN, COPPER KNIGHT, EL BUFALO, ETERNAL SUNSHINE) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROBERTO CARO (IRE) (read through ETERNAL SUNSHINE, ALMARADA PRINCE, ROCK OPERA, TINTO) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BAYRAAT (read through COPPER KNIGHT, AL HUSSAR, AMERICAN BAY, ACRISIUS) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) (read through AL HUSSAR, CHANGEOFMIND, MUKER, EQUITY LAW) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 75, 16pts above his recent average of 58.7Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.56)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#8 MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) PROMINENT FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 73 · Danny McMenamin / Geoff Oldroyd
MARKET drifting 8.6 → 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 15pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.24)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.43% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 26 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 81.5 last run (BEVERLEY · 3 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 5f · rated 751stClass 5 · 5f · rated 8010thClass 2 · 6f · rated 593rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 693rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 74
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Geoff Oldroyd · 124 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf6/4912.2%1.432/1711.8%1.29
Over 5-6f trips6/4613.0%1.443/1520.0%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/166.2%0.850/50.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)6/3517.1%1.660/40.0%0.0
In fields of 16+1/156.7%1.040/60.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark5/2222.7%1.612/229.1%0.64
In Class 4-5 company11/5022.0%2.331/119.1%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
The rider
Danny McMenamin · at York: A/E 5.6 (n3) · with this yard: A/E 11.5 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 17
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 17
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 17
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 17
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Beverley5fGd/Frm45th7681.5—41.6 +0.10100.2+0.50—
11 Oct 24York5fSoft (Heavy In Places)—8th——Fast early42.0 +0.1092.8+0.38
7 Sep 24Thirsk5fGd/Frm51st7271.5True42.4 -0.09101.3+0.15
21 Aug 24York6fGd/Frm210th7477True41.9 -0.0896.9+0.29
22 Jul 24Ayr5fGd/Frm43rd——Slow early41.1 -0.51105.0+0.00
6 Jul 24Beverley5fGood53rd——True38.2 -0.05100.4+0.00
Timed runs 2024-07-06 to 2026-07-03. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
CAYMAN TAI (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
21 Aug 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 7th, 2.45L behind · OR 74 v 83 · race median 77 (today 74)
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
3 Jul 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 7th, 2.25L ahead · OR 76 v 78 · race median 82 (today 74)
TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
7 Sep 24 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 6th, 7.85L ahead · OR 72 v 67 · race median 72 (today 74)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+2.2L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ALMATY STAR (IRE) (read through EMPEROR SPIRIT, MASTER OF MY FATE) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VENTURA EXPRESS (read through I'M NEXT, HUNDRED CAPS, ELEGANT ERIN) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) (read through TIVA, HUNDRED CAPS) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPORTS COACH (IRE) (read through I'M NEXT, ELEGANT ERIN, MASTER OF MY FATE) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (5.6x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“led, pushed along under 2f out, ran green, kept on”
#9 CAMELEY DAYS FRONT
DRAW 11 · OR 68 · James Best / Chris Dwyer
MARKET drifting 48 → 75 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 15pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (2.06)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 96.76% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 17 places on the course scale (YARMOUTH 19th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 68 last run (YARMOUTH · 26 Jun 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 6f · rated 754thClass 5 · 6f · rated 662ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 741stClass 6 · 5f22y · rated 7310thClass 6 · 6f · rated 42
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CAMELEY DAYSneeds 88–89best 752025-06-23 · TFR 27 · 1m31y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-26 · TFR 29 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-28 · TFR 45 · 6f · Good · C62025-10-06 · TFR 54 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-10-21 · TFR 62 · 6f · Good · C62025-10-30 · TFR 67 · 5f161y · Soft · C62025-11-05 · TFR 39 · 6f · Std · C62026-04-25 · TFR 42 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-07 · TFR 73 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-19 · TFR 74 · 5f · Good · C62026-06-05 · TFR 66 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-26 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C523 Jun 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Chris Dwyer · 209 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days7/888.0%0.571/283.6%0.26
On turf ✦10/8611.6%0.764/3910.3%0.74
Over 5-6f trips12/7615.8%1.063/2810.7%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/333.3%6.371/333.3%3.29
At York (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 17
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 17
-0.04s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed15th of 17
96.8%
One-paced late
Stride length17th of 17
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Yarmouth6fGd/Frm53rd6868Fast early38.9 -0.4999.5—
5 Jun 26Goodwood6fGd/Sft54th6868True42.3 -0.0892.8+0.14
19 May 26Lingfield4f217yGood62nd6561Fast early42.5 +0.2297.6-0.31
7 May 26Windsor5f21yGd/Frm61st5756True42.5 +0.2799.5-0.01
25 Apr 26Leicester6fGd/Frm610th5855.5True42.0 -0.7594.5-0.02
5 Nov 25Kempton Park6fStd68th5656True40.5 +0.2296.8+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery slow2fledvery fast3fledvery fast4fledvery fast5f+0.13very fast6f+0.34very fast
Timed runs 2025-11-05 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs ALMATY STAR (IRE) (read through FAUSTUS, FLETCHER'S FLIGHT) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAYMAN TAI (IRE) (read through HONOUR YOUR DREAMS, MANHATTAN CHUTE, TWIRLER, FANTASY OBSESSOR) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BAYRAAT (read through STARSONG, THUNDEROUS LOVE) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
11lb above his last winning mark (68 today vs 57)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 2.06)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, ridden over 1f out, headed final 1f, edged right, no extra final ½f”
#10 MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) FRONT
DRAW 1 · OR 76 · Brian Hughes / Kevin Ryan
MARKET 8.2 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
73.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 16.7pts off the top, prominent in the betting; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
73.3 · ranked #10 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 26 tries · in line with the market (1.03)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 99.76% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 26 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 81.5 last run (BEVERLEY · 3 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 4 · 5f · rated 683rdClass 3 · 5f · rated 8512thClass 4 · 5f · rated 675thClass 3 · 5f · rated 876thClass 4 · 5f · rated 73
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MON NA SLIEVE (IRE)best 93needs 88–892025-02-20 · TFR 52 · 5f · Slow · C32025-03-12 · TFR 58 · 5f22y · Slow · C32025-04-02 · TFR 88 · 5f · Good · C32025-04-19 · TFR 84 · 5f · Good · C22025-05-03 · TFR 42 · 5f · Good · C32025-05-15 · TFR 81 · 5f · Good · C22025-06-07 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-21 · TFR 93 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-04 · TFR 52 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-29 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-20 · TFR 88 · 5f88y · Good · C22025-09-23 · TFR 86 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-01-04 · TFR 74 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-03-04 · TFR 48 · 4f213y · Std · C32026-03-27 · TFR 88 · 5f · Std · C42026-04-26 · TFR 73 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-17 · TFR 87 · 5f · Good · C32026-05-31 · TFR 67 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-25 · TFR 85 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-03 · TFR 68 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C420 Feb 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Ryan · 1212 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At York7/1305.4%0.783/339.1%1.78
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/1263.2%0.650/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/395.1%0.54
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
The rider
Brian Hughes · at York: A/E 0 (n3) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 17
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 17
-0.08s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed6th of 17
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 17
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Beverley5fGd/Frm47th7881.5—41.0 -0.48100.2+0.08—
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm33rd7883.5True43.7 +0.0495.8-0.06
31 May 26Thirsk5fGood412th8079True43.9 +0.04102.4-0.11
17 May 26Hamilton Park5fGood35th8080True44.4 +0.1797.4-0.13
26 Apr 26Musselburgh5fGood46th8177.5True41.9 +0.04102.1-0.24
27 Mar 26Newcastle5fStd42nd8081.5True41.5 -0.32100.7+0.00
Timed runs 2026-03-27 to 2026-07-03. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 7.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
31 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 12th vs 13th, 1.25L ahead · OR 80 v 79 · race median 79 (today 74)
LETHAL NYMPH · 3 meetings · n/a
15 May 25 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 15th, 9.5L ahead · OR 81 v 79 · race median 90 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
SPORTS COACH (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
27 Mar 26 · 5f · Std — finished 2nd vs 5th, 1.5L ahead · OR 80 v 83 · race median 82 (today 74)
VENTURA EXPRESS · 2 meetings · n/a
7 Jun 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 13th vs 12th, 1L behind · OR 80 v 82 · race median 82 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
ALMATY STAR (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
12 Mar 25 · 5f21y · Slow — finished 8th vs 2nd, 6.3L behind · OR 80 v 86 · race median 86 (today 74) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
KING'S CALL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
31 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 12th vs 11th, 2L behind · OR 80 v 79 · race median 79 (today 74)
MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
3 Jul 26 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 5th, 2.25L behind · OR 78 v 76 · race median 82 (today 74)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+2.4L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HARB (read through AZUINTHEJUNGLE, WATER OF LEITH, ALBEGONE, LION'S HOUSE) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DREAM DEAL (read through ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, WATER OF LEITH) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAYMAN TAI (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, ALBEGONE, ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, NOGO'S DREAM) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BAYRAAT (read through COPPER KNIGHT, AL HUSSAR, ARNHEM, AMERICAN BAY) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (76 today vs 79)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed over 1f out, kept on”
#11 TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 16 · OR 72 · Brendan Powell / Adrian Nicholls
MARKET drifting 44 → 80 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
72.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 17.7pts off the top, proven at the trip; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
72.3 · ranked #11 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 24 tries · beats market expectation (1.53)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.77% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (RIPON 14th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 4 · 5f · rated 671stClass 5 · 5f · rated 833rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 673rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 755thClass 4 · 5f · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TEES AGGREGATES (IRE)needs 88–89best 832025-04-09 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C52025-04-23 · TFR 48 · 5f · Good · C52025-05-12 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-03 · TFR 47 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-07 · TFR 62 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-05 · TFR 66 · 5f · Good · C42025-07-15 · TFR 73 · 5f · Good · C52025-07-25 · TFR 38 · 5f88y · Good · C42025-08-13 · TFR 82 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-24 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42026-04-07 · TFR 73 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-04-23 · TFR 58 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-04 · TFR 74 · 5f11y · Good · C52026-05-16 · TFR 72 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-28 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-10 · TFR 67 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52026-06-22 · TFR 83 · 5f · Firm · C52026-07-06 · TFR 67 · 5f · Good · C49 Apr 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Nicholls · 346 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company15/1639.2%1.092/405.0%0.5
At this time of year (Q3)10/1178.5%0.991/147.1%0.6
Over 5-6f trips23/21110.9%1.194/3910.3%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)1/128.3%2.110/10.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/224.5%1.090/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 83 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
The rider
Brendan Powell · at York: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 17
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph16th of 17
+0.33s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 17
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 17
7.71 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon5fGood47th7373True42.4 -0.08100.0—
22 Jun 26Catterick Bridge5fFirm51st6864True44.0 +0.03100.2+0.08
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft53rd6966True42.3 -0.0198.4+0.19
28 May 26Ripon5fGood53rd7066True42.9 +0.45101.3—
16 May 26Thirsk5fGood45th7176Fast early42.8 +0.15101.9+0.70
4 May 26Bath5f10yGood54th7372True40.4 -0.01102.8+0.34
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.28par2f+0.43par3f+0.42par4f+0.47slow5f+0.65slow
Timed runs 2026-05-04 to 2026-07-06. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 5f · Good — finished 7th vs 4th, 2.05L behind · OR 73 v 80 · race median 73 (today 74)
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 37.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jul 26 · 5f · Good — finished 7th vs 9th, 37.5L ahead · OR 73 v 75 · race median 73 (today 74)
EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 10th, 1.85L ahead · OR 71 v 77 · race median 76 (today 74)
VENTURA EXPRESS · 1 meeting≈ 5.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
23 Apr 26 · 5f · Good — finished 9th vs 5th, 3.65L behind · OR 74 v 77 · race median 77 (today 74)
MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
7 Sep 24 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 1st, 7.85L behind · OR 67 v 72 · race median 72 (today 74) · stale — 23m ago, not in the read
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+8.2L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ROBERTO CARO (IRE) (read through REIGNING PROFIT, CALL TO ACTION, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE, JENEVER) ≈ -5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPORTS COACH (IRE) (read through I'M NEXT, REIGNING PROFIT, EQUITY LAW, SMART VISION) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LETHAL NYMPH (read through I'M NEXT, GOYARD, REIGNING PROFIT, AL HUSSAR) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ALMATY STAR (IRE) (read through PIXIE DIVA, LEXINGTON BLITZ, JENEVER, STORMY IMPACT) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 68)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (24 tries, beats market expectation at 1.53)Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“tracked pace, pushed along 2f out, led final ½f, kept on”
#12 CAYMAN TAI (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 14 · OR 73 · K. Brogan / Richard Hannon
MARKET drifting 30 → 65 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 19pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 26 tries · below market expectation (0.43)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.3% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 20 places on the course scale (SALISBURY 22nd → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 719thClass 4 · 5f · rated 512ndClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 811stClass 5 · 5f · rated 842ndClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CAYMAN TAI (IRE)needs 88–89best 872025-04-08 · TFR 87 · 6f · Good · C32025-04-16 · TFR 64 · 6f · Good · C22025-05-17 · TFR 80 · 6f · Firm · C42025-07-31 · TFR 86 · 6f20y · Std · C42025-08-16 · TFR 58 · 6f · Good · C42025-09-13 · TFR 81 · 5f · Std · C42025-09-27 · TFR 62 · 5f · Good · C42025-10-08 · TFR 73 · 6f · Std · C42025-11-19 · TFR 78 · 6f · Std · C52026-01-07 · TFR 70 · 6f · Std/Slow · C42026-01-21 · TFR 64 · 6f · Slow · C52026-02-14 · TFR 77 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-27 · TFR 61 · 5f22y · Std · C52026-03-20 · TFR 71 · 7f · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-03-27 · TFR 78 · 6f · Std · C52026-04-04 · TFR 66 · 6f20y · Std · C52026-04-29 · TFR 73 · 5f11y · Firm · C52026-05-11 · TFR 75 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-21 · TFR 84 · 4f213y · Std · C52026-05-29 · TFR 81 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-12 · TFR 51 · 5f11y · Good · C42026-06-30 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C48 Apr 2530 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2111 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8115/9316.1%1.27
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)7/3520.0%2.073/1717.6%1.68
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 87 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 17
+0.39 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph15th of 17
+0.33s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 17
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length16th of 17
7.32 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Salisbury5fGood43rd7475.5True40.5 +0.2396.9+0.11
12 Jun 26Sandown Park5f10yGood49th7676True39.5 +0.1495.1+0.51
29 May 26Chepstow5f16yGd/Frm52nd7371True43.9 +0.36104.8-0.01
21 May 26Southwell4f214yStd51st6865—43.2 +0.55102.9+0.34
11 May 26Windsor5f21yGd/Frm52nd6866Fast early44.9 +1.0996.2+0.72
29 Apr 26Bath5f10yFirm53rd7071True41.9 -0.0599.9—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.42fast2f+0.54par3f+0.56par4f+0.59slow5f+0.84very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-29 to 2026-06-30. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
27 Sep 25 · 5f · Good — finished 12th vs 9th, 2.25L behind · OR 80 v 72 · race median 74 (today 74)
MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
21 Aug 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 10th, 2.45L ahead · OR 83 v 74 · race median 77 (today 74) · stale — 23m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SPORTS COACH (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, SMART VISION, ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, NOGO'S DREAM) ≈ -5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VENTURA EXPRESS (read through COPPER KNIGHT, LAW OF AVERAGE, MISSION COMMAND, WEN MOON) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CAMELEY DAYS (read through HONOUR YOUR DREAMS, MANHATTAN CHUTE, TWIRLER, FANTASY OBSESSOR) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LETHAL NYMPH (read through COPPER KNIGHT, ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, DARK CLOUD RISING, GALLANT) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 68)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayStable in form this week — 6 wins from 31 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, headway 2f out, no extra final 1f”
#13 DREAM DEAL HELD-UP
DRAW 12 · OR 62 · Richie McLernon / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 26 → 36 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 19pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #13 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
62 · last won off 56
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 31 tries · below market expectation (0.8)
Days since last run
5
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.27% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 26 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 12lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 62 last run (BEVERLEY · 20 Jul 26)
Headgear
Blinkers and tongue strap · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 5f · rated 717thClass 4 · 6f · rated 562ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 702ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 701stClass 5 · 5f · rated 71
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DREAM DEALneeds 88–89best 712025-04-23 · TFR 62 · 5f211y · Good · C52025-05-12 · TFR 46 · 5f211y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-30 · TFR 55 · 5f211y · Good · C52025-07-10 · TFR 52 · 5f183y · Good · C62025-08-05 · TFR 63 · 5f211y · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-27 · TFR 58 · 5f211y · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-03 · TFR 50 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C62025-09-09 · TFR 68 · 5f211y · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-27 · TFR 64 · 6f · Good · C62025-10-17 · TFR 62 · 6f · Good · C52025-11-07 · TFR 57 · 6f · Slow · C52026-05-16 · TFR 23 · 6f · Good · C62026-05-26 · TFR 61 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-16 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-29 · TFR 70 · 5f · Good · C52026-07-07 · TFR 70 · 5f · Good · C52026-07-15 · TFR 56 · 5f211y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-20 · TFR 71 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C623 Apr 2520 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark51/6747.6%0.6628/21313.1%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25
In fields of 16+1/1550.6%0.152/543.7%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
The rider
Richie McLernon · at York: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields14th of 17
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 17
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 17
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length11th of 17
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jul 26Beverley5fGd/Frm64th6262—39.7 -0.30102.2+0.10—
15 Jul 26Catterick Bridge5f212yGd/Frm47th6376True40.2 -0.37101.8+0.45
7 Jul 26Pontefract5fGood52nd6262True39.9 -0.19103.1+0.15
29 Jun 26Pontefract5fGood52nd6264—39.5 -0.25102.6+0.15—
16 Jun 26Beverley5fGood51st5667True39.7 +0.11102.9+0.66
26 May 26Redcar5f217yGd/Frm66th5852.5True41.7 +0.14101.0+0.04
Timed runs 2026-05-26 to 2026-07-20. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BAYRAAT · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L behind on today's terms · line-ball
26 May 26 · 5f217y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 2nd, 1.8L behind · OR 58 v 52 · race median 52 (today 74)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) (read through HOVER ON THE WIND, KING'S CROWN) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VENTURA EXPRESS (read through JOJO RABBIT, LUCIUS AURELIUS, AY GEE ELL, BETWEENTHESTICKS) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) (read through AY GEE ELL, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, GANESHA, MISS BRAZEN) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) (read through ARCHDUKE FERDINAND, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, WATER OF LEITH) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (62 today vs 56)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRace-fit — ran 5 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“behind, pushed along halfway, never nearer”
#14 VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) MID
DRAW 9 · OR 74 · Dylan Johnston / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 48 → 110 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
14th on the figures, 20pts off the top, proven at the trip; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #14 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 38 tries · beats market expectation (1.3)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: 4.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 96.13% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (RIPON 14th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 4 · 5f · rated —7thClass 2 · 6f · rated —6thClass 4 · 5f · rated 7013thClass 4 · 5f · rated 6013thClass 3 · 5f · rated 21
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE)needs 88–89best 862025-04-08 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C22025-04-19 · TFR 53 · 5f · Good · C22025-05-15 · TFR 26 · 5f · Good · C22025-06-14 · TFR 44 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C32025-06-26 · TFR 48 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-12 · TFR 53 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-25 · TFR 61 · 6f · Good · C42025-08-07 · TFR 79 · 5f15y · Good · C42025-09-05 · TFR 75 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-18 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-09-27 · TFR 62 · 5f · Good · C42025-10-13 · TFR 81 · 5f · Good · C52025-10-28 · TFR 44 · 5f · Soft · C52025-10-31 · TFR 63 · 5f · Good · C42026-03-29 · TFR 59 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52026-04-12 · TFR 81 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-04-25 · TFR 28 · 5f · Good · C22026-05-08 · TFR 82 · 5f · Good · C52026-05-17 · TFR 21 · 5f · Good · C32026-05-31 · TFR 60 · 5f · Good · C42026-06-09 · TFR 70 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C48 Apr 259 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25
Back at their last winning mark8/5315.1%1.171/205.0%0.56
In fields of 16+1/1550.6%0.152/543.7%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields17th of 17
-0.60 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 17
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed16th of 17
96.1%
One-paced late
Stride length14th of 17
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon5fGood49th7573True40.4 -2.0692.4—
18 Jun 26Ripon6fGood27th7888True42.4 -0.3990.0—
9 Jun 26Carlisle5fGd/Sft46th7979—40.7 -0.1395.6+0.04—
31 May 26Thirsk5fGood413th7979True43.7 -0.10102.4+0.12
17 May 26Hamilton Park5fGood313th8080True43.6 -0.6294.3+0.19
8 May 26Ripon5fGood51st7471.5Slow early40.6 -0.31102.1-0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.76slow2f+1.35very slow3f+2.06very slow4f+3.46very slow5f+6.91very slow
Timed runs 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-06. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 7.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
31 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 13th vs 12th, 1.25L behind · OR 79 v 80 · race median 79 (today 74)
VENTURA EXPRESS · 2 meetings · n/a
15 May 25 · 5f · Good — finished 16th vs 13th, 7.45L behind · OR 81 v 84 · race median 90 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 39.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 5f · Good — finished 9th vs 4th, 39.55L behind · OR 75 v 80 · race median 73 (today 74)
HARB · 1 meeting≈ 1.1L behind on today's terms · reverses
18 Sep 25 · 5f · Gd/Sft — finished 2nd vs 4th, 2.25L ahead · OR 70 v 69 · race median 67 (today 74)
LETHAL NYMPH · 1 meeting · n/a
15 May 25 · 5f · Good — finished 16th vs 15th, 3.5L behind · OR 81 v 79 · race median 90 (today 74) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
CAYMAN TAI (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
27 Sep 25 · 5f · Good — finished 9th vs 12th, 2.25L ahead · OR 72 v 80 · race median 74 (today 74)
SPORTS COACH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
25 Jul 25 · 6f · Good — finished 10th vs 12th, 0.2L ahead · OR 70 v 79 · race median 75 (today 74)
BAYRAAT · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
5 Sep 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 10th, 3.05L ahead · OR 70 v 61 · race median 73 (today 74)
EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Apr 26 · 5f · Gd/Sft — finished 2nd vs 7th, 2.85L ahead · OR 73 v 78 · race median 74 (today 74)
KING'S CALL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
31 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 13th vs 11th, 3.25L behind · OR 79 v 79 · race median 79 (today 74)
TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 37.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Jul 26 · 5f · Good — finished 9th vs 7th, 37.5L behind · OR 75 v 73 · race median 73 (today 74)
Read through a common rival
vs ALMATY STAR (IRE) (read through DREAM COMPOSER, THUNDER STAR, ROACH POWER, VINTAGE CLARETS) ≈ -4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DREAM DEAL (read through AY GEE ELL, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, GANESHA, MISS BRAZEN) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MANAGING DIRECTOR (IRE) (read through TIVA, HUNDRED CAPS) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROBERTO CARO (IRE) (read through LION'S HOUSE, PARISIAC, WEN MOON, ORIENTAL PRINCE) ≈ +1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 70, 19pts above his recent average of 50.3Proven over the trip (38 tries, beats market expectation at 1.3)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRun-style and sectional profile are mismatched to how this course & distance is won
LTO comment
“chased leaders, weakened 2f out, eased”
#15 HARB MID
DRAW 15 · OR 63 · Harry Reed / Tristan Davidson
MARKET drifting 46 → 60 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
15th on the figures, 20pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #15 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 35 tries · below market expectation (0.91)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.73% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 13 places on the course scale (HAMILTON PARK 15th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 18lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 55.5 last run (HAMILTON PARK · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 5f · rated 708thClass 5 · 5f · rated 506thClass 5 · 5f · rated 531stClass 5 · 5f · rated 718thClass 6 · 5f · rated 51
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HARBneeds 88–89best 812025-02-16 · TFR 50 · 5f · Slow · C52025-03-05 · TFR 65 · 5f · Slow · C52025-04-01 · TFR 74 · 5f · Std/Slow · C62025-04-10 · TFR 60 · 5f · Slow · C62025-08-09 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-18 · TFR 69 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-09-29 · TFR 61 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-21 · TFR 60 · 5f · Slow · C52025-12-16 · TFR 70 · 5f · Slow · C62026-01-20 · TFR 69 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-06 · TFR 63 · 5f · Std · C52026-02-19 · TFR 71 · 5f · Std · C52026-03-05 · TFR 69 · 5f · Std · C52026-03-12 · TFR 46 · 6f · Std · C62026-04-07 · TFR 49 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C62026-05-05 · TFR 51 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-18 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-04 · TFR 53 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-26 · TFR 50 · 5f · Slow · C52026-07-11 · TFR 70 · 5f · Good · C616 Feb 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tristan Davidson · 275 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days8/6711.9%1.024/2020.0%1.8
Over 5-6f trips11/9511.6%1.076/3218.8%1.51
At this time of year (Q3)13/8515.3%1.443/1225.0%1.46
On turf ✦18/12914.0%1.318/4816.7%1.2
In Class 4-5 company14/11212.5%1.175/4012.5%1.18
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/30.0%0.0—
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/40.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 81 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
The rider
Harry Reed · at York: A/E 0 (n1) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 17
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 17
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed12th of 17
98.7%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 17
7.55 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Hamilton Park5fGood63rd6455.5Slow early42.0 -0.09102.2+0.23
26 Jun 26Newcastle5fSlow58th6667.5Fast early43.1 -0.1298.7—
4 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGood56th6668True42.9 +0.2096.8+0.00
18 May 26Carlisle5fGood51st6267.5True39.3 -0.2898.8+0.21
5 May 26Ayr5fGd/Frm68th6457True41.5 -0.29100.1+0.21
7 Apr 26Pontefract5fGd/Sft68th6461Fast early40.6 +0.0095.9+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.28very slow2f+0.23slow3f+0.22par4f+0.28fast5f+0.19fast
Timed runs 2026-04-07 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.1L ahead on today's terms · confirms
18 Sep 25 · 5f · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 2nd, 2.25L behind · OR 69 v 70 · race median 67 (today 74)
SPORTS COACH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jun 26 · 5f · Slow — finished 8th vs 2nd, 5.55L behind · OR 66 v 75 · race median 68 (today 74)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.2L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) (read through LION'S HOUSE, CALL TO ACTION, JM JHINGREE, ALBEGONE) ≈ -4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MON NA SLIEVE (IRE) (read through AZUINTHEJUNGLE, WATER OF LEITH, ALBEGONE, LION'S HOUSE) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ALMATY STAR (IRE) (read through BLIND BEGGAR, JUAN LES PINS, DARK KESTREL, MICK'S SPIRIT) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LETHAL NYMPH (read through JOJO RABBIT, AZUINTHEJUNGLE, STIRRUP CUP, IRISH NECTAR) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 70, 12pts above his recent average of 57.7Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, ridden over 1f out, dropped away”
#16 BAYRAAT MID
DRAW 8 · OR 61 · Caoilin Quinn / Tom Tate
MARKET drifting 15.5 → 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
16th on the figures, 24pts off the top, in form; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #16 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
61 · last won off 53
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 22 tries · below market expectation (0.81)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.58% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 10lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 74 vs 64 last run (DONCASTER · 9 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 5f154y · rated 661stClass 6 · 5f110y · rated 632ndClass 6 · 6f · rated 602ndClass 6 · 6f · rated 585thClass 6 · 5f · rated 54
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BAYRAATneeds 88–89best 762025-05-19 · TFR 65 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-18 · TFR 63 · 6f18y · Good · C52025-07-26 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-02 · TFR 54 · 5f · Good · C42025-08-14 · TFR 51 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-23 · TFR 52 · 6f · Good · C52025-09-05 · TFR 54 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-14 · TFR 19 · 5f · Good · C42025-09-27 · TFR 54 · 4f213y · Std · C62026-05-07 · TFR 58 · 6f · Good · C62026-05-26 · TFR 60 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-15 · TFR 63 · 5f110y · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-09 · TFR 66 · 5f143y · Gd/Frm · C519 May 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tom Tate · 86 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips0/350.0%0.03/1323.1%1.43
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company1/382.6%0.40/100.0%0.0
At York0/90.0%0.0—
In fields of 16+0/90.0%0.0—
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/287.1%0.891/128.3%0.65
Above their last winning mark1/119.1%0.631/1010.0%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)0/330.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~88.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 17
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 17
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 17
99.6%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 17
7.63 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Doncaster5f143yGd/Frm52nd5764True42.0 +0.0398.8+0.09
15 Jun 26Wetherby5f110yGd/Frm61st5347True40.5 -0.22102.8+0.00
26 May 26Redcar5f217yGd/Frm62nd5252.5True41.4 -0.14101.0+0.18
7 May 26Redcar5f217yGood62nd5252True42.4 +0.2597.7+0.20
27 Sep 25Southwell4f214yStd65th5461True42.0 -0.4099.0+0.17
14 Sep 25Doncaster5fGood414th5972True41.2 -0.0198.1+0.43
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.17par2f+0.17par3f+0.19par4f+0.14fast5f+0.14par6f+0.12slow
Timed runs 2025-09-14 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LETHAL NYMPH · 1 meeting≈ 9.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
14 Sep 25 · 5f · Good — finished 14th vs 1st, 9.75L behind · OR 59 v 78 · race median 72 (today 74)
VINCE L'AMOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
5 Sep 25 · 5f · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 3rd, 3.05L behind · OR 61 v 70 · race median 73 (today 74)
DREAM DEAL · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
26 May 26 · 5f217y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 6th, 1.8L ahead · OR 52 v 58 · race median 52 (today 74)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-3.4L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, AL HUSSAR, ARNHEM, BLIND BEGGAR) ≈ -4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROBERTO CARO (IRE) (read through WEN MOON, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE, LA ROCHETTE, TREACHEROUS) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SPORTS COACH (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, SMART VISION, COROLLA POINT, BONNIE'S BOY) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VENTURA EXPRESS (read through COPPER KNIGHT, JOJO RABBIT, LUCIUS AURELIUS, TRILBY) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb above his last winning mark (61 today vs 53)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“close up, ridden from 2f out, carried left final 1f, kept on”
#17 ROBERTO CARO (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 13 · OR 78 · Sean Flanagan / Adrian Keatley
MARKET drifting 19.5 → 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
65.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
17th on the figures, 24.7pts off the top, proven at the trip; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
65.3 · ranked #17 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (2.05)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.84% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 16 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
11thClass 4 · 6f · rated 5510thClass 4 · 7f88y · rated 553rdClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 864thClass 4 · 6f · rated 873rdClass 3 · 6f · rated 87
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROBERTO CARO (IRE)best 91needs 88–892025-05-24 · TFR 67 · 7f97y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-06-14 · TFR 87 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-02 · TFR 85 · 6f · Good · C32025-08-07 · TFR 91 · 6f15y · Good · C32025-09-20 · TFR 66 · 6f · Soft · C22025-11-24 · TFR 61 · 7f35y · Std/Slow · C4 · off-trip2026-02-20 · TFR 86 · 6f15y · Std/Slow · C42026-03-27 · TFR 87 · 6f · Std · C32026-04-16 · TFR 87 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42026-04-30 · TFR 86 · 6f15y · Std · C42026-05-30 · TFR 55 · 7f97y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2026-06-20 · TFR 55 · 6f · Soft · C424 May 2520 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Keatley · 421 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: with a new jockey booked, in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)18/11615.5%1.544/1526.7%1.69
In Class 4-5 company ✦25/16814.9%1.1813/5822.4%1.45
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/462.2%0.490/90.0%0.0
In fields of 16+0/410.0%0.00/100.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips22/14115.6%1.264/567.1%0.6
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~88.0 demand
The rider
Sean Flanagan · at York: A/E 0 (n1) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 74 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields15th of 17
-0.16 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph17th of 17
+0.45s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 17
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 17
7.62 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft411th8076True41.6 +0.3199.2+0.95
30 May 26Beverley7f96yGd/Frm410th8181True39.4 -0.8696.7+0.61
30 Apr 26Southwell6f16yStd43rd8280.5True40.5 -0.27103.3+0.12
16 Apr 26Ripon6fGd/Sft44th8279True41.6 -0.0997.0+0.35
27 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd33rd8286.5True41.2 -0.2497.8+0.09
20 Feb 26Southwell6f16yStd/Slow45th8383True40.3 +0.18105.0+0.59
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.79par2f+0.65fast3f+0.67par4f+0.85slow5f+1.14very slow6f+1.60very slow
Timed runs 2026-02-20 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
KODIAC THRILLER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L ahead on today's terms · confirms
16 Apr 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 1st, 0.65L behind · OR 82 v 79 · race median 79 (today 74)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs TEES AGGREGATES (IRE) (read through REIGNING PROFIT, CALL TO ACTION, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE, JENEVER) ≈ +5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ALMATY STAR (IRE) (read through KING OF LIGHT, BETSEN, STAR CHORUS, JUAN LES PINS) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BAYRAAT (read through WEN MOON, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE, LA ROCHETTE, TREACHEROUS) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs EMERALD HARMONY (IRE) (read through ETERNAL SUNSHINE, LION'S HOUSE, ORIENTAL PRINCE, PADDY'S DAY) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (78 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 2.05)Lost roughly 4.3 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“reared stalls, soon behind, ridden when hung left 2f out, weakened over 1f out”