FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
York · 14:00
Class 2 · 6f · Good to Firm (Good in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 88
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 21 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:52 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Good in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 1-33333.3%57.6%42.4%60.6%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (89% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (52% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 6th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 51% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, POCKLINGTON leads on 107, 4pts clear of ADDISON GREY — the quickest away of the early types. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is COUL ANGEL (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE) the 15% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
POCKLINGTON
OR 100 · Joanna Mason / Geoff Oldroyd
MARKET backed 11.5 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance
107.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (107.0)Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.21)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 17
ADDISON GREY
OR 94 · Rossa Ryan / Clive Cox
MARKET backed 11 → 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
103 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (103)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 11
RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE)
OR 93 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET backed 7.2 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance
102.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Rated #3 in this field (102.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1POCKLINGTONnet +12figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
2BALDOMERO (IRE)net +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency, meets much weaker company by the marks − yard cold
3STRATUSNINE (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on recency − 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. BALDOMERO (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge POCKLINGTON lacks: in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE)  FIGURE #5
won last time out, and Richard is among the in-form yards this fortnight (37 runs).
COMMANCHE FALLS  FIGURE #17
Michael Dods's runners at this time of year (Q3) win 15.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (6 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 33% · prominent racers 28% (86 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, flat, galloping 5f run-in; most horses get a clear run finish. Draw: Generally fair on the wide round course, but a real bias exists in big-field sprint handicaps (5f-6f): on good, low/inside edge in big fields. soft often flips the advantage to the far (high) side. Winners’ energy signature: 50.61% spent early (band 49.91–51.07%, 71 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~6 at halfway, 0.28s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Today 6 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
43 similar races at YORK, 5.0-7.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 1-3, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (89% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (52% from the first three favourites). 25% won last time out, 18% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
36% 5yo
27% 3yo
18% 6yo+
Last ran
70% 15-45d
18% within 14d
7% first run
Market
48% 4th+ in the market
18% 2nd favourite
18% favourite
LTO form
50% unplaced last time
25% won last time
18% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 21 runners · stalls 1–22
12345678910111213141516171819202122
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 6.7 of 22, field average 11.0).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: POCKLINGTON is 0/1 on softer ground · ADDISON GREY is unraced on softer ground · RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
POCKLINGTON FRONT 50.5% 98.4 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
STRATUSNINE (IRE) MID 49.1% 101.4 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
ADDISON GREY HELD-UP 50.2% 99.7 one-paced late — 7th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
APOLLO ONE PROMINENT 51.1% 97.2 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
COMMANCHE FALLS MID 51.6% 97.8 held up without the late gear (18th of 21 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
COUL ANGEL (IRE) MID 49.2% 102.3 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) HELD-UP 49.9% 100.4 one-paced late — 4th of 21 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) HELD-UP 50.2% 98.7 one-paced late — 14th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
NOVELLO LAD MID 50.0% 98.9 one-paced late — 11th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) MID 51.3% 96.5 held up without the late gear (21st of 21 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE) PROMINENT 50.4% 98.2 concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) PROMINENT 50.3% 98.1 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f
TRILBY HELD-UP 50.1% 99.7 one-paced late — 8th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) HELD-UP 51.0% 96.9 held up without the late gear (20th of 21 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
BALDOMERO (IRE) MID 49.9% 99.0 one-paced late — 10th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ETERNAL SUNSHINE PROMINENT 51.1% 99.2 concedes ~1.6L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
YES I'M MALI MID 50.9% 100.1 one-paced late — 6th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
EVENING BLUES (IRE) PROMINENT 50.9% 100.5 concedes ~2.2L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
UTMOST RESPECT (IRE) MID 50.3% 98.9 one-paced late — 12th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
HAVANA RUM (IRE) HELD-UP 50.0% 100.4 one-paced late — 4th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ROCK OPERA HELD-UP 50.3% 98.8 one-paced late — 13th of 21 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
POCKLINGTONFRONTtypically ~2.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
APOLLO ONEPROMINENTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
WE NEVER STOP (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
ETERNAL SUNSHINEPROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
EVENING BLUES (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 POCKLINGTON FRONT
DRAW 2 · OR 100 · Joanna Mason / Geoff Oldroyd
MARKET backed 11.5 → 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−
107.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
107.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 107
Official mark (OR)
100 · last won off 96
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.21)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 98.43% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 11 places on the course scale (NEWCASTLE 13th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 10lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 97.5 last run (NEWCASTLE · 27 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 2 · 6f · rated 1078thClass 2 · 6f · rated 917thClass 2 · 6f · rated 862ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 1071stClass 2 · 6f22y · rated 103
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for POCKLINGTONbest 107needs 103–103.32025-06-28 · TFR 104 · 6f · Slow · C22025-07-26 · TFR 100 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-23 · TFR 99 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-14 · TFR 105 · 6f110y · Good · C22025-12-13 · TFR 104 · 7f13y · Slow · C22026-01-01 · TFR 103 · 6f15y · Std · C22026-01-16 · TFR 107 · 6f · Std · C22026-04-03 · TFR 86 · 6f · Std · C22026-05-13 · TFR 91 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C22026-06-27 · TFR 107 · 6f · Slow · C228 Jun 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Geoff Oldroyd · 124 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company3/2213.6%0.93/1520.0%1.4
On turf6/4912.2%1.432/1711.8%1.29
Over 5-6f trips6/4613.0%1.443/1520.0%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/166.2%0.850/50.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)6/3517.1%1.660/40.0%0.0
In fields of 16+1/156.7%1.040/60.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark5/2222.7%1.612/229.1%0.64
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 109 at/around today's trip, clears the ~103.0 demand
The rider
Joanna Mason · last 14 days: 3/28 · at York: A/E 1.15 (n79)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields16th of 21
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 21
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed15th of 21
98.4%
One-paced late
Stride length12th of 21
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Newcastle6fSlow24th10097.5Fast early41.1 -0.4597.3—
13 May 26York6fGd/Sft28th10193True42.0 +0.1294.8+0.24
3 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd27th10199.5True40.4 -0.1595.9-0.03
16 Jan 26Newcastle6fStd22nd9990.5True41.5 -0.06100.3+0.05
1 Jan 26Southwell6f16yStd21st9696True40.4 -0.31103.4-0.01
13 Dec 25Newcastle7f14ySlow22nd9693True40.3 +0.0298.9-0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3f+0.09par4f+0.13par5f+0.01slow6f+0.28very slow
Timed runs 2025-12-13 to 2026-06-27. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 5 meetings≈ 6.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
27 Jun 26 · 6f · Slow — finished 4th vs 8th, 2.55L ahead · OR 100 v 98 · race median 98 (today 88)
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 4.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 8th vs 19th, 10.85L ahead · OR 101 v 91 · race median 93 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.1L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 8th vs 15th, 5.15L ahead · OR 101 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
COMMANCHE FALLS · 2 meetings≈ 2.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
14 Sep 25 · 6f111y · Good — finished 2nd vs 9th, 3.15L ahead · OR 96 v 99 · race median 95 (today 88)
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · confirms
16 Jan 26 · 6f · Std — finished 2nd vs 7th, 2.8L ahead · OR 99 v 95 · race median 90 (today 88)
ROCK OPERA · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jul 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 3rd, 0.2L behind · OR 95 v 79 · race median 94 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
14 Sep 25 · 6f111y · Good — finished 2nd vs 12th, 4.9L ahead · OR 96 v 88 · race median 95 (today 88)
Read through a common rival
vs NOVELLO LAD (read through AMERICAN STYLE, INDIAN RUN, ORNE, PHOTOSYNTHESIS) ≈ +5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ADDISON GREY (read through INDIAN RUN, KORKER, BINHAREER, ARCTIC THUNDER) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HAVANA RUM (IRE) (read through DARK CLOUD RISING, KYLIAN, WOVEN, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs STRATUSNINE (IRE) (read through DARK THIRTY, PILGRIM, SO DARN HOT, FAST TRACK HARRY) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (100 today vs 96)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (107.0)Improving fast — last run rated 107, 12pts above his recent average of 94.7Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.21)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, not sustain effort”
#2 ADDISON GREY HELD-UP
DRAW 17 · OR 94 · Rossa Ryan / Clive Cox
MARKET backed 11 → 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
103 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, backed since the morning; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
103 · ranked #2 here · career best 104
Official mark (OR)
94 · last won off 88
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 9 tries · below market expectation (0.73)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.72% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 20 places on the course scale (SALISBURY 22nd → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 3 · 6f · rated 1025thClass 2 · 6f · rated 1032ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 1042ndClass 3 · 6f · rated 10410thClass 2 · 5f154y · rated 90
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ADDISON GREYbest 104needs 103–103.32025-04-25 · TFR 71 · 6f · Good · C52025-07-26 · TFR 88 · 6f · Good · C42025-08-07 · TFR 93 · 6f15y · Good · C32025-08-16 · TFR 104 · 6f · Good · C42025-09-13 · TFR 90 · 5f143y · Good · C22026-04-17 · TFR 104 · 6f · Good · C32026-05-02 · TFR 104 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22026-05-16 · TFR 103 · 6f · Good · C22026-06-30 · TFR 102 · 6f · Good · C325 Apr 2530 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Clive Cox · 808 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days44/32813.4%0.9616/9017.8%1.41
At this time of year (Q3)38/25514.9%1.166/3915.4%1.36
In Class 1-3 company ✦28/22612.4%1.0413/8116.0%1.32
Over 5-6f trips ✦59/39415.0%1.0222/12917.1%1.3
On turf ✦67/45814.6%1.1420/13814.5%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark11/8013.8%1.122/326.2%0.38
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)4/2119.0%2.581/714.3%1.89
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 104 at/around today's trip, clears the ~103.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 14/61 · at York: A/E 1.11 (n124) · with this yard: A/E 1.15 (n258)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields21st of 21
-0.74 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph14th of 21
+0.26s
Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed7th of 21
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 21
7.72 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Salisbury6fGood33rd9488True39.9 -0.1698.1+0.41
16 May 26Newbury6fGood25th9494True40.7 +0.10102.6—
2 May 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm22nd9295True41.3 +0.00101.5+0.00
17 Apr 26Newbury6fGood32nd9287.5Fast early41.7 +0.0599.5—
13 Sep 25Doncaster5f143yGood210th9393Fast early38.0 -4.2996.9—
16 Aug 25Newmarket6fGood41st8880True41.6 -0.1699.7+0.38
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.44fast2f+0.62par3f+0.65par4f+0.42par5f+0.25par6f+0.16slow
Timed runs 2025-08-16 to 2026-06-30. · 3 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
APOLLO ONE · 2 meetings≈ 3.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
2 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 1.5L ahead · OR 92 v 98 · race median 95 (today 88)
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
2 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 6th, 3.3L ahead · OR 92 v 94 · race median 95 (today 88)
YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 7th, 2.25L ahead · OR 94 v 80 · race median 94 (today 88)
AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 10th vs 13th, 0.6L ahead · OR 93 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 1 meeting≈ 5.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 10th vs 1st, 4.5L behind · OR 93 v 84 · race median 93 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 10th vs 6th, 1.9L behind · OR 93 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 6 rival(s) met (-1.4L adj, 7 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs STRATUSNINE (IRE) (read through ROACH POWER, ATOMIC FORCE, ROMAN DRAGON, SEVEN QUESTIONS) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through BINHAREER, ROSARIO, PUROSANGUE, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs POCKLINGTON (read through INDIAN RUN, KORKER, BINHAREER, ARCTIC THUNDER) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) (read through BROSAY, GWEEDORE, KORKER, ROACH POWER) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (94 today vs 88)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRated #2 in this field (103)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.32 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, hampered soon after start, not clear run over 2f out, headway when not clear run again 1f out, got gap soon after, edged left, kept on”
#3 RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 11 · OR 93 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET backed 7.2 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
102.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, prominent in the betting; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
102.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 103
Official mark (OR)
93 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 10 tries · below market expectation (0.81)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.22% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 91 last run (NEWMARKET · 9 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 2 · 6f · rated 1022ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 1031stClass 4 · 6f · rated 1001stClass 4 · 6f · rated 882ndClass 5 · 7f22y · rated 80
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 1032025-07-25 · TFR 75 · 7f · Good · C32025-08-22 · TFR 80 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-20 · TFR 78 · 7f51y · Soft · C22025-10-10 · TFR 72 · 7f · Good · C22026-04-08 · TFR 84 · 7f · Good · C42026-04-23 · TFR 80 · 7f13y · Std · C52026-05-08 · TFR 88 · 6f · Good · C42026-05-17 · TFR 100 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 103 · 6f · Good · C22026-07-09 · TFR 102 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C225 Jul 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark51/6747.6%0.6628/21313.1%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25
In Class 1-3 company ✦15/3754.0%0.637/1385.1%0.7
In fields of 16+1/1550.6%0.152/543.7%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 104 at/around today's trip, clears the ~103.0 demand
The rider
David Allan · last 14 days: 5/48 · at York: A/E 0.23 (n115) · with this yard: A/E 0.82 (n1592)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 21
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 21
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed16th of 21
98.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 21
7.95 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26York6fGood22nd8989True41.8 -0.1298.5+0.22
17 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood41st7979True43.9 -0.4395.8+0.13
8 May 26Ripon6fGood41st——True41.3 +0.0299.7—
23 Apr 26Southwell7f14yStd52nd——True39.3 +0.5899.1-0.10
8 Apr 26Catterick Bridge7fGood42nd——True40.2 +0.4399.0+0.05
10 Oct 25York7fGood26th——True39.3 +0.2097.2+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.32par2f+0.27par3f+0.28slow4f+0.14par5f+0.16slow6f+0.11fast
Timed runs 2025-10-10 to 2026-06-13. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through RUBY'S ANGEL, FORTIFICATION) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs UTMOST RESPECT (IRE) (read through GO VINCE GO, MIGHTY MAGNUS, RUBY'S ANGEL, MO OF CAIRO) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs STRATUSNINE (IRE) (read through RUBY'S ANGEL, FORTIFICATION) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) (read through DAIZEN, COTAI LIGHTS) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
14lb above his last winning mark (93 today vs 79)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRated #3 in this field (102.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along soon after halfway, challenged under 2f out, no extra only late”
#4 STRATUSNINE (IRE) MID
DRAW 9 · OR 95 · James Doyle / Hugo Palmer
MARKET backed 7.8 → 6.8 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
101.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 6pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
101.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 102
Official mark (OR)
95 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 13 tries · below market expectation (0.82)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s)
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.38% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 3 · 6f22y · rated 1018thClass 2 · 7f · rated 942ndClass 2 · 5f · rated 102DNFClass 2 · 5f22y · rated —2ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 97
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for STRATUSNINE (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 1022025-11-17 · TFR 81 · 6f · Slow · C32025-12-08 · TFR 101 · 6f20y · Slow · C32025-12-26 · TFR 101 · 7f35y · Slow · C32026-02-11 · TFR 92 · 6f · Slow · C22026-03-19 · TFR 97 · 6f · Std · C22026-05-23 · TFR 102 · 5f · Good · C22026-06-18 · TFR 94 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22026-06-27 · TFR 101 · 6f18y · Good · C317 Nov 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦42/26915.6%1.1915/9515.8%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+2/623.2%0.80/220.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.24/517.8%0.65
Above their last winning mark27/17515.4%1.25/568.9%0.7
Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0513/12510.4%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)2/296.9%1.390/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 104 at/around today's trip, clears the ~103.0 demand
The rider
James Doyle · last 14 days: 2/14 · at York: A/E 1.07 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 0.7 (n44)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 21
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 21
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 21
101.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length13th of 21
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chester6f17yGood33rd9586True41.4 +0.42101.0-0.04
18 Jun 26Ascot7fGd/Frm28th9596Slow early39.7 -0.04104.2+0.01
23 May 26York5fGood22nd9287True42.1 -0.11102.4+0.14
7 May 26Chester5f15yGood2—9289True42.7 +0.2299.6+0.07—
19 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd22nd9194True41.9 -0.1299.6+0.17
11 Feb 26Kempton Park6fSlow25th9288True41.7 +0.81101.5+0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.48par2f+0.49par3f+0.22par4f+0.24par5f+0.20par6f+0.14par
Timed runs 2026-02-11 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 2.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
27 Jun 26 · 6f17y · Good — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 0.3L behind · OR 95 v 86 · race median 86 (today 88)
AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · reverses
23 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 2nd vs 5th, 0.9L ahead · OR 92 v 90 · race median 87 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+2.0L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ADDISON GREY (read through ROACH POWER, ATOMIC FORCE, ROMAN DRAGON, SEVEN QUESTIONS) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) (read through ATOMIC FORCE, SO DARN HOT, PUREST TIME, STORMY IMPACT) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROCK OPERA (read through INTERVENTION, MR COOL, SECRET GUEST, FISCAL POLICY) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs APOLLO ONE (read through SOLAR ACLAIM, DUBAI BLING, ROMAN DRAGON, PARTISAN HERO) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
11lb above his last winning mark (95 today vs 84)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, forced wide home turn, edged left, stayed on”
#5 MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) MID
DRAW 19 · OR 88 · Warren Fentiman / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET drifting 28 → 36 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
99.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 8pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
99.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 99
Official mark (OR)
88 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (1.44)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 96.51% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 7lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 81 last run (YORK · 13 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 6f · rated 997thClass 4 · 6f · rated 541stClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 9015thClass 2 · 6f · rated 5515thClass 3 · 6f · rated 55
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 992025-04-12 · TFR 91 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-16 · TFR 84 · 7f · Good · C42025-06-01 · TFR 91 · 6f · Slow · C42025-06-14 · TFR 84 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-08 · TFR 86 · 6f · Good · C22025-07-24 · TFR 89 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-08-07 · TFR 74 · 7f15y · Good · C22025-09-06 · TFR 55 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32025-09-19 · TFR 55 · 6f · Soft · C22026-04-02 · TFR 90 · 6f15y · Std · C42026-05-08 · TFR 54 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-13 · TFR 99 · 6f · Good · C412 Apr 2513 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+—4/478.5%2.11
At York—4/478.5%1.69
Above their last winning mark—18/12714.2%1.47
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 99 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Warren Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/12 · at York: A/E 1.62 (n49) · with this yard: A/E 1.47 (n55)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 21
+0.37 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 21
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed21st of 21
96.5%
One-paced late
Stride length15th of 21
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26York6fGood41st8481True42.4 +0.2197.9+0.12
8 May 26Ripon6fGood47th8482True43.3 +1.7692.0—
2 Apr 26Southwell6f16yStd41st8077.5True40.4 +0.54103.0+0.13
19 Sep 25Ayr6fSoft215th8380True40.6 -0.0790.9+0.38
6 Sep 25Thirsk6fGd/Sft315th8382True41.3 -0.4995.3+0.26
24 Jul 25Yarmouth6fGd/Sft44th8479True40.9 +0.2599.9+0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.31par2f+0.33par3f+0.28par4f+0.22par5f+0.11slow6fledpar
Timed runs 2025-07-24 to 2026-06-13. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 2 meetings≈ 11.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
19 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 15th vs 3rd, 9.05L behind · OR 83 v 82 · race median 80 (today 88)
YES I'M MALI · 2 meetings≈ 5.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 1st vs 19th, 13.2L ahead · OR 84 v 81 · race median 81 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 9.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 1st vs 18th, 11.7L ahead · OR 84 v 85 · race median 81 (today 88)
Read through a common rival
vs NOVELLO LAD (read through WRECK IT RYLEY, BERGERAC, LORD ROXBY, KATS BOB) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HAVANA RUM (IRE) (read through WRECK IT RYLEY, GRANT WOOD, WOVEN, DARK CLOUD RISING) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs POCKLINGTON (read through WOVEN, DARK CLOUD RISING, SONDAD, SPANGLED MAC) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) (read through BERGERAC, DURAN, LETHAL NYMPH, SPORTS COACH) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C4→C2) — earned under different conditions4lb above his last winning mark (88 today vs 84)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 99, 18pts above his recent average of 81.0Proven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.44)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.62x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden and headway 2f out, led final ½f, well on top”
#6 AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 90 · P. J. McDonald / Geoff Oldroyd
MARKET drifting 13 → 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−
98.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 9pts off the top, proven at the trip; one-paced late — 4th of 21 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
98.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 102
Official mark (OR)
90 · last won off 88
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 17 tries · beats market expectation (1.27)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.37% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 11 places on the course scale (NEWCASTLE 13th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 92.5 last run (NEWCASTLE · 26 Jun 26)
Headgear
Visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 2 · 5f · rated 985thClass 2 · 5f · rated 9612thClass 2 · 5f · rated 751stClass 3 · 5f · rated 1025thClass 3 · 5f · rated 84
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for AIR FORCE ONE (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 1022025-07-11 · TFR 76 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-26 · TFR 89 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-20 · TFR 94 · 5f88y · Good · C22025-09-07 · TFR 97 · 5f88y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-13 · TFR 81 · 5f143y · Good · C22025-11-21 · TFR 86 · 4f213y · Std · C22026-02-06 · TFR 84 · 5f · Std · C32026-04-15 · TFR 102 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32026-05-14 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C22026-05-23 · TFR 96 · 5f · Good · C22026-06-26 · TFR 98 · 5f · Slow · C211 Jul 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Geoff Oldroyd · 124 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company3/2213.6%0.93/1520.0%1.4
On turf6/4912.2%1.432/1711.8%1.29
Over 5-6f trips6/4613.0%1.443/1520.0%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/166.2%0.850/50.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)6/3517.1%1.660/40.0%0.0
In fields of 16+1/156.7%1.040/60.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark5/2222.7%1.612/229.1%0.64
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 99 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
P. J. McDonald · last 14 days: 4/19 · at York: A/E 1.31 (n100) · with this yard: A/E 1.35 (n81)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 21
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph19th of 21
+0.38s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 21
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length14th of 21
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle5fSlow23rd9092.5True43.7 +0.3899.3+0.30
23 May 26York5fGood25th9087True42.6 +0.37101.9+0.63
14 May 26York5fGood212th9088True42.5 +0.0298.9+0.51
15 Apr 26Beverley5fGd/Sft31st8884.5True41.2 +0.10100.7+0.31
6 Feb 26Newcastle5fStd35th8991True43.2 -0.04101.1+0.30
21 Nov 25Southwell4f214yStd26th9191True42.8 +0.40100.2+0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.63par2f+0.48fast3f+0.37par4f+0.22slow5f+0.16slow
Timed runs 2025-11-21 to 2026-06-26. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 2 meetings≈ 3.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
14 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 12th vs 13th, 0.05L ahead · OR 90 v 87 · race median 88 (today 88)
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 10.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
23 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 16th, 11.4L ahead · OR 90 v 89 · race median 87 (today 88)
ADDISON GREY · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 13th vs 10th, 0.6L behind · OR 87 v 93 · race median 93 (today 88)
APOLLO ONE · 1 meeting≈ 9.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 13th vs 2nd, 4.6L behind · OR 87 v 102 · race median 93 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 13th vs 6th, 2.5L behind · OR 87 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
7 Sep 25 · 5f89y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 5th, 3.05L ahead · OR 87 v 84 · race median 86 (today 88)
STRATUSNINE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms
23 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 5th vs 2nd, 0.9L behind · OR 90 v 92 · race median 87 (today 88)
Read through a common rival
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through BERGERAC, JORDAN ELECTRICS, THE CALTONIAN, STRONG WARRIOR) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TRILBY (read through COPPER KNIGHT, REIGNING PROFIT, DURAN, ABERAMA GOLD) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROCK OPERA (read through ABERAMA GOLD, AMERICAN BAY, WEN MOON, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs YES I'M MALI (read through BERGERAC, DURAN, TIRIAC, LETHAL NYMPH) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 98, 8pts above his recent average of 89.7Proven over the trip (17 tries, beats market expectation at 1.27)Jockey goes well at this track (1.31x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 7 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, rear, headway when edged right over 1f out, kept on well, nearest finish”
#7 EVENING BLUES (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 87 · Robbie Downey / Stephen Hanlon
MARKET backed 12.5 → 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
96.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 11pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
96.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
87 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.48% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 80 last run (YORK · 27 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time hood
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 6f · rated 967thClass 2 · 1m198y · rated 505thClass 4 · 7f · rated 872ndClass · 1m · rated 811stClass · 1m · rated 84
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for EVENING BLUES (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 962025-04-12 · TFR 84 · 5f · Good2025-05-10 · TFR 86 · 5f205y · Good2025-06-04 · TFR 78 · 6f · Good2025-10-29 · TFR 82 · 7f · Slow · C62025-11-21 · TFR 84 · 1m · Slow · off-trip2025-12-17 · TFR 81 · 1m · Slow · off-trip2026-04-26 · TFR 87 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-06 · TFR 50 · 1m209y · Good · C2 · off-trip2026-06-27 · TFR 96 · 6f · Good · C412 Apr 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stephen Hanlon · 74 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf—1/244.2%0.67
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)—0/20.0%0.0
At York (small sample)—0/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)—0/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 96 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Robbie Downey · last 14 days: 1/1
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 21
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 21
-0.13s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 3
Finish · closing speed3rd of 21
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 21
7.65 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York6fGood42nd8380True43.1 +0.3296.7+0.18
6 Jun 26Musselburgh1m208yGood27th8484True39.0 -0.06101.3-0.93
26 Apr 26Wetherby7fGd/Frm45th8483True40.6 -0.01103.4+0.36
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledfast3fledpar4fledslow5f+0.05slow6f+0.14par
Timed runs 2026-04-26 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs UTMOST RESPECT (IRE) (read through BYE LAW, DACRES CROSS) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C4→C2) — earned under different conditionsImproving fast — last run rated 96, 18pts above his recent average of 77.7Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“hampered start, off pace, never on terms”
#8 COUL ANGEL (IRE) MID
DRAW 20 · OR 92 · Clifford Lee / Michael Appleby
MARKET backed 60 → 55 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
95 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 12pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
95 · ranked #9 here · career best 100
Official mark (OR)
92 · last won off 90
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.46)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.27% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 3 · 6f · rated 942ndClass 2 · 6f22y · rated 976thClass 2 · 6f · rated 942ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 1007thClass 2 · 6f · rated 94
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for COUL ANGEL (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 1002025-02-28 · TFR 73 · 6f · Slow · C22025-03-15 · TFR 82 · 6f15y · Std · C42025-04-18 · TFR 80 · 6f · Std · C42025-05-09 · TFR 84 · 6f · Firm · C42025-05-31 · TFR 79 · 7f · Firm · C42025-07-21 · TFR 88 · 6f11y · Gd/Sft · C42025-09-08 · TFR 71 · 6f11y · Good · C42025-09-20 · TFR 92 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-10-18 · TFR 89 · 6f20y · Slow · C32025-10-29 · TFR 94 · 6f · Std · C42025-11-05 · TFR 100 · 6f · Std · C22025-12-17 · TFR 99 · 6f · Std · C22026-01-01 · TFR 94 · 6f15y · Std · C22026-01-16 · TFR 94 · 6f · Std · C22026-04-15 · TFR 100 · 6f · Good · C22026-05-02 · TFR 94 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22026-06-29 · TFR 97 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C22026-07-10 · TFR 94 · 6f · Firm · C328 Feb 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Appleby · 1557 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/695.8%0.891/254.0%0.67
At this time of year (Q3)45/32813.7%1.224/488.3%0.82
In Class 1-3 company ✦26/2918.9%0.985/786.4%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)1/382.6%0.330/110.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 101 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 3/16 · at York: A/E 0.85 (n130) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 21
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph16th of 21
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 21
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length16th of 21
7.51 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Ascot6fFirm36th9388True40.8 -0.17104.0+0.07
29 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm22nd9393.5True42.6 -0.09101.5—
2 May 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm26th9495True41.4 +0.16102.0+0.12
15 Apr 26Newmarket6fGood22nd9490True40.6 +0.36101.9+0.49
16 Jan 26Newcastle6fStd27th9590.5True41.5 -0.06100.8+0.51
1 Jan 26Southwell6f16yStd26th9596True41.1 +0.39103.5+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.04very slow2f+0.08slow3f+0.07par4f+0.03par5fledfast6f+0.64fast
Timed runs 2026-01-01 to 2026-07-10. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
POCKLINGTON · 2 meetings≈ 0.5L behind on today's terms · reverses
16 Jan 26 · 6f · Std — finished 7th vs 2nd, 2.8L behind · OR 95 v 99 · race median 90 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Jan 26 · 6f · Std — finished 7th vs 3rd, 2.05L behind · OR 95 v 96 · race median 90 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms
29 Jun 26 · 6f12y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 1.25L ahead · OR 93 v 85 · race median 94 (today 88)
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses
1 Jan 26 · 6f16y · Std — finished 6th vs 7th, 0.75L ahead · OR 95 v 95 · race median 96 (today 88)
YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting · n/a
28 Feb 25 · 6f · Slow — finished 5th vs 9th, 2.95L ahead · OR 77 v 83 · race median 84 (today 88) · stale — 17m ago, not in the read
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 5th, 2L ahead · OR 94 v 88 · race median 90 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 1 meeting≈ 34.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 13th, 35.75L ahead · OR 94 v 88 · race median 90 (today 88)
ADDISON GREY · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
2 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 2nd, 3.3L behind · OR 94 v 92 · race median 95 (today 88)
APOLLO ONE · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
2 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 3rd, 1.8L behind · OR 94 v 98 · race median 95 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 8 rival(s) met (+3.7L adj, 11 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs TRILBY (read through REALIGN, KINIRO, EYE OF DUBAI, DARK THIRTY) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs NOVELLO LAD (read through INDIAN RUN, CAIRDEAS, PHOTOSYNTHESIS, FAN MAIL) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through INDIAN RUN, FAST TRACK HARRY, DILIGENTLY, DOUBLE RUSH) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs COMMANCHE FALLS (read through PUREST TIME, RUSSET GOLD, DARK THIRTY, EYE OF DUBAI) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayProven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.46)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“disputed lead, tackled under 2f out, headed before final 1f, weakened final ½f”
#9 TRILBY HELD-UP
DRAW 22 · OR 85 · Rowan Scott / Sam England
MARKET drifting 100 → 110 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
95.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 12pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
95.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 35 tries · beats market expectation (1.2)
Days since last run
46
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.71% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 23 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 9lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 79 last run (CARLISLE · 9 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 5f · rated 953rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 861stClass 4 · 5f · rated 906thClass 4 · 5f · rated 762ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 83
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TRILBYneeds 103–103.3best 952025-03-30 · TFR 77 · 6f · Good · C32025-04-16 · TFR 92 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-04-26 · TFR 90 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-05-15 · TFR 81 · 5f · Good · C22025-05-31 · TFR 66 · 6f · Good · C32025-06-15 · TFR 87 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-18 · TFR 67 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-06 · TFR 73 · 6f · Good · C42025-09-14 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C42025-09-27 · TFR 82 · 6f · Good · C32025-10-06 · TFR 83 · 6f · Soft · C32025-10-17 · TFR 88 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-10-25 · TFR 80 · 5f · Heavy · C22026-03-12 · TFR 71 · 6f · Std · C42026-04-08 · TFR 70 · 5f211y · Good · C42026-04-23 · TFR 83 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-04 · TFR 76 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-21 · TFR 90 · 5f · Soft · C42026-05-23 · TFR 86 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-09 · TFR 95 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C430 Mar 259 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Sam England · 339 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips5/3713.5%1.083/1618.8%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+0/160.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)11/8313.3%1.071/911.1%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)1/234.3%0.440/20.0%0.0
At York (small sample)0/110.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)2/219.5%1.40/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 95 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Rowan Scott · last 14 days: 2/15 · at York: A/E 1.19 (n77) · with this yard: A/E 2.03 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 21
+0.31 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph20th of 21
+0.40s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed8th of 21
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 21
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jun 26Carlisle5fGd/Sft41st8079—41.4 +0.5897.8+0.42—
23 May 26York6fGood43rd8079True43.7 +0.6396.1+0.26
21 May 26Haydock Park5fSoft41st7580.5Slow early39.1 +0.60104.0+0.47
4 May 26Beverley5fGd/Sft46th7677True40.8 +0.23100.3+0.35
23 Apr 26Beverley5fGood42nd7577Fast early41.8 -0.17100.0+0.59
8 Apr 26Catterick Bridge5f212yGood45th7679True40.6 +0.00100.2+0.33
Timed runs 2026-04-08 to 2026-06-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
HAVANA RUM (IRE) · 4 meetings · n/a
20 Sep 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 22nd, 4.5L ahead · OR 76 v 74 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
NOVELLO LAD · 3 meetings≈ 4.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
23 Apr 26 · 5f · Good — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 1.25L ahead · OR 75 v 78 · race median 77 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Oct 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 3rd vs 5th, 6.5L ahead · OR 77 v 86 · race median 78 (today 88)
COMMANCHE FALLS · 2 meetings · n/a
18 Jul 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 13th vs 8th, 4.25L behind · OR 82 v 100 · race median 90 (today 88) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
26 Apr 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 6th, 1.3L ahead · OR 86 v 83 · race median 92 (today 88) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 1 meeting · n/a
20 Sep 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 15th, 1.9L ahead · OR 76 v 73 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
23 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 1.5L behind · OR 80 v 79 · race median 79 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
26 Apr 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 9th, 2.65L ahead · OR 86 v 93 · race median 92 (today 88) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
ROCK OPERA · 1 meeting · n/a
13 Jul 24 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 9th, 4.25L ahead · OR 72 v 80 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 24m ago, not in the read
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+2.4L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs COUL ANGEL (IRE) (read through REALIGN, KINIRO, EYE OF DUBAI, DARK THIRTY) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) (read through COPPER KNIGHT, REIGNING PROFIT, DURAN, ABERAMA GOLD) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through WOVEN, REIGNING PROFIT, SOLAR ACLAIM, ROSARIO) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs APOLLO ONE (read through REALIGN, TOPWARRIOR, FINE INTERVIEW, ABERAMA GOLD) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (85 today vs 80)Yet to win at this level — a Class 3 winner, upped to Class 2 todayProven over the trip (35 tries, beats market expectation at 1.2)Lost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, headway over 1f out, led final 100 yds, cosily”
#10 APOLLO ONE PROMINENT
DRAW 10 · OR 94 · Daniel Tudhope / P. Charalambous & J. Clutterbuck
MARKET drifting 13 → 16 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
93.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 13.7pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
93.3 · ranked #11 here · career best 113
Official mark (OR)
94 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 23 tries
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 97.22% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 12lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 100 last run (ASCOT · 20 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
14thClass 2 · 6f · rated 869thClass 2 · 6f · rated 903rdClass 2 · 6f · rated 1042ndClass 1 · 6f22y · rated 1096thClass 1 · 6f · rated 93
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for APOLLO ONEbest 113needs 103–103.32025-04-16 · TFR 96 · 6f · Good · C12025-06-21 · TFR 109 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-07-12 · TFR 102 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C12025-08-02 · TFR 102 · 6f · Good · C22025-08-22 · TFR 76 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C12025-09-13 · TFR 112 · 5f143y · Good · C22025-10-04 · TFR 113 · 6f · Soft · C12025-11-08 · TFR 93 · 6f · Heavy · C12025-11-28 · TFR 109 · 6f15y · Std · C12026-05-02 · TFR 104 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22026-06-06 · TFR 90 · 6f · Soft · C22026-06-20 · TFR 86 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C216 Apr 2520 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
P. Charalambous & J. Clutterbuck · 183 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips3/813.7%0.393/2114.3%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company0/170.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/412.4%0.330/40.0%0.0
On turf1/521.9%0.260/130.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days3/654.6%0.531/156.7%0.68
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/20.0%0.0—
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 113 at/around today's trip, clears the ~103.0 demand
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 4/35 · at York: A/E 0.88 (n193) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n6)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields17th of 21
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 21
-0.06s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 5
Finish · closing speed19th of 21
97.2%
One-paced late
Stride length21st of 21
6.90 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ascot6fGd/Frm214th97100True40.5 -0.2997.9-0.03
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs6fSoft29th9792Fast early42.8 +0.4992.7+0.00
2 May 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm23rd9895True—100.6—
28 Nov 25Southwell6f16yStd12nd——True40.0 -0.74102.1-0.09
8 Nov 25Doncaster6fHeavy16th——True38.5 -0.2193.8-0.15
4 Oct 25Ascot6fSoft12nd——True38.8 +0.0596.2-0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.28fast2f+0.39par3f+0.38par4f+0.37slow5f+0.68slow6f+1.25very slow
Timed runs 2025-10-04 to 2026-06-20. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ADDISON GREY · 2 meetings≈ 3.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
2 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 1.5L behind · OR 98 v 92 · race median 95 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 2nd vs 6th, 2.1L ahead · OR 102 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
COMMANCHE FALLS · 2 meetings≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms
2 Aug 25 · 6f · Good — finished 10th vs 7th, 1.6L behind · OR 107 v 100 · race median 97 (today 88)
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
2 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 6th, 1.8L ahead · OR 98 v 94 · race median 95 (today 88)
AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 2nd vs 13th, 4.6L ahead · OR 102 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.5L behind · OR 102 v 84 · race median 93 (today 88)
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
21 Jun 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 27th, 25.35L ahead · OR 109 v 98 · race median 99 (today 88) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
3 Jun 23 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 12th, 11.25L ahead · OR 97 v 90 · race median 88 (today 88) · stale — 38m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs NOVELLO LAD (read through INDIAN RUN, FINE INTERVIEW) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HAVANA RUM (IRE) (read through REALIGN, KYLIAN, TOPWARRIOR, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs STRATUSNINE (IRE) (read through SOLAR ACLAIM, DUBAI BLING, ROMAN DRAGON, PARTISAN HERO) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TRILBY (read through REALIGN, TOPWARRIOR, FINE INTERVIEW, ABERAMA GOLD) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, headway 2f out, stayed on”
#11 VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 89 · Kieran Shoemark / David O'Meara
MARKET backed 30 → 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
93.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 14pts off the top, backed since the morning; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
93.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
89 · last won off 87
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.24)
Days since last run
5
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.65% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 16 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 12lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 76 last run (AYR · 20 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 3 · 6f · rated 933rdClass 3 · 6f · rated 9513thClass 2 · 7f · rated 631stClass 4 · 6f · rated 957thClass 3 · 7f · rated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 952025-04-08 · TFR 95 · 6f · Good · C52025-06-14 · TFR 90 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-05 · TFR 82 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C32026-04-29 · TFR 95 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-05 · TFR 63 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C22026-07-01 · TFR 95 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-20 · TFR 93 · 6f · Firm · C38 Apr 2520 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2033 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after within 7 days12/9912.1%0.719/2733.3%1.77
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/1672.4%0.421/551.8%0.31
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/817.4%0.54
At York7/1176.0%0.822/513.9%0.56
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.918/1475.4%0.59
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 96 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 5/36 · at York: A/E 1.1 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 21
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph18th of 21
+0.33s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed14th of 21
98.7%
One-paced late
Stride length17th of 21
7.51 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jul 26Ayr6fFirm33rd8976True42.0 -0.2198.6+0.40
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm33rd8983.5True42.2 +0.27100.9+0.38
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft213th9088Fast early41.2 +0.5994.8+0.68
29 Apr 26Pontefract6fGood41st8780True39.2 +0.15100.2+0.01
5 Sep 25Ascot7fGd/Sft37th——True37.7 +0.13100.5+0.05
14 Jun 25York6fGd/Frm24th9089.5True42.0 -0.5397.0+0.48
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.57par2f+0.38par3f+0.31par4f+0.22par5f+0.14par6f+0.31slow
Timed runs 2025-06-14 to 2026-07-20. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
NOVELLO LAD · 1 meeting≈ 8.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
1 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 8th, 8.8L ahead · OR 89 v 89 · race median 84 (today 88)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+8.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) (read through BERGERAC, JORDAN ELECTRICS, THE CALTONIAN, STRONG WARRIOR) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BALDOMERO (IRE) (read through SIXTYGEESBABY, DOUBLE RUSH, TERRITORIAL KNIGHT, DILIGENTLY) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through AMERICAN STYLE, INDIAN RUN, JORDAN ELECTRICS, BERGERAC) ≈ +4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TRILBY (read through LORD ROXBY, THE GOOD BISCUIT, MISTER SOX, ORIENTAL PRINCE) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayProven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.24)Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 5 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“slowly away, off pace, headway over 1f out, no extra final ½f”
#12 WE NEVER STOP (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 13 · OR 87 · Kevin Stott / Kevin Ryan
MARKET 60 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
93.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 14pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
93.0 · ranked #13 here · career best 104
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 95
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 26 tries · beats market expectation (1.65)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.09% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 3 · 6f22y · rated 9316thClass 2 · 5f · rated 4619thClass 2 · 6f · rated 448thClass 3 · 5f · rated 643rdClass 2 · 6f · rated 95
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for WE NEVER STOP (IRE)best 104needs 103–103.32025-02-08 · TFR 88 · 5f22y · Slow · C32025-03-14 · TFR 103 · 6f15y · Std · C22025-04-18 · TFR 104 · 6f · Std · C22025-05-14 · TFR 90 · 6f · Good · C22025-06-21 · TFR 9 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-23 · TFR 73 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-20 · TFR 1 · 6f · Soft · C22025-11-26 · TFR 100 · 6f15y · Std · C22026-01-01 · TFR 91 · 6f15y · Std · C22026-02-11 · TFR 83 · 6f · Slow · C22026-03-19 · TFR 95 · 6f · Std · C22026-04-14 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good · C32026-05-13 · TFR 44 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C22026-05-23 · TFR 46 · 5f · Good · C22026-06-27 · TFR 93 · 6f18y · Good · C38 Feb 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Ryan · 1212 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At York7/1305.4%0.783/339.1%1.78
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/1263.2%0.650/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/395.1%0.54
In Class 1-3 company35/4008.8%1.018/1256.4%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 105 at/around today's trip, clears the ~103.0 demand
The rider
Kevin Stott · last 14 days: 3/24 · at York: A/E 0.37 (n55) · with this yard: A/E 0.71 (n189)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields18th of 21
-0.16 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 21
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed17th of 21
98.1%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 21
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chester6f17yGood32nd8686True40.7 -0.34101.9+0.00
23 May 26York5fGood216th8987True42.2 -0.0396.5+0.39
13 May 26York6fGd/Sft219th9193True41.3 -0.4990.7-0.25
14 Apr 26Newmarket5fGood38th9287.5True40.5 -0.43101.2+0.00
19 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd23rd9294True42.0 +0.0497.5+0.08
11 Feb 26Kempton Park6fSlow29th9488True41.2 +0.30100.8+0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.30par2f+0.30par3f+0.12slow4f+0.38slow5f+0.32par6f+0.06par
Timed runs 2026-02-11 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
POCKLINGTON · 4 meetings≈ 4.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 19th vs 8th, 10.85L behind · OR 91 v 101 · race median 93 (today 88)
STRATUSNINE (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 2.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
27 Jun 26 · 6f17y · Good — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 0.3L ahead · OR 86 v 95 · race median 86 (today 88)
COMMANCHE FALLS · 3 meetings≈ 12.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
20 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 25th vs 12th, 21.45L behind · OR 97 v 98 · race median 96 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
1 Jan 26 · 6f16y · Std — finished 7th vs 9th, 1.2L ahead · OR 95 v 97 · race median 96 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 19th vs 15th, 5.7L behind · OR 91 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 10.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
23 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 16th vs 5th, 11.4L behind · OR 89 v 90 · race median 87 (today 88)
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms
1 Jan 26 · 6f16y · Std — finished 7th vs 6th, 0.75L behind · OR 95 v 95 · race median 96 (today 88)
APOLLO ONE · 1 meeting · n/a
21 Jun 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 27th vs 7th, 25.35L behind · OR 98 v 109 · race median 99 (today 88) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Nov 25 · 6f16y · Std — finished 4th vs 9th, 1.95L ahead · OR 95 v 87 · race median 92 (today 88)
Read through a common rival
vs RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE) (read through RUBY'S ANGEL, FORTIFICATION) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HAVANA RUM (IRE) (read through REIGNING PROFIT, DARK CLOUD RISING, WOVEN, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through AMERICAN STYLE, INDIAN RUN, JORDAN ELECTRICS, BERGERAC) ≈ -4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ADDISON GREY (read through BINHAREER, ROSARIO, PUROSANGUE, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb below his last winning mark (87 today vs 95)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 93, 32pts above his recent average of 61.0Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 1.65)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“chased leaders, pushed along 2f out, not quicken early in straight, stayed on”
#13 ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 18 · OR 84 · James Sullivan / Ruth Carr
MARKET 46 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
14th on the figures, 15pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #14 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
84 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 32 tries · below market expectation (0.84)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 96.87% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 16 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 9lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 79 last run (AYR · 6 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 9218thClass 4 · 6f · rated 594thClass 3 · 5f176y · rated 9015thClass 2 · 6f · rated 615thClass 3 · 6f · rated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROUSING ENCORE (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 972025-04-11 · TFR 85 · 6f · Good · C32025-04-26 · TFR 81 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-05-14 · TFR 95 · 6f · Good · C22025-06-07 · TFR 91 · 6f · Soft · C22025-07-08 · TFR 88 · 6f · Good · C22025-07-26 · TFR 92 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-16 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-29 · TFR 67 · 6f · Good · C32025-09-07 · TFR 84 · 5f88y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-20 · TFR 82 · 6f · Soft · C22025-09-30 · TFR 97 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-10-11 · TFR 68 · 6f · Good · C22025-10-24 · TFR 92 · 6f · Heavy · C22025-11-08 · TFR 96 · 6f · Heavy · C22026-03-27 · TFR 96 · 6f · Std · C32026-04-15 · TFR 87 · 6f · Good · C22026-05-02 · TFR 78 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C32026-05-13 · TFR 61 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C22026-05-30 · TFR 90 · 5f183y · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-13 · TFR 59 · 6f · Good · C42026-07-06 · TFR 92 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C411 Apr 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ruth Carr · 1266 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)37/35310.5%1.15/3315.2%1.54
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company3/754.0%0.651/205.0%0.66
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦38/4638.2%0.9511/1537.2%0.74
Above their last winning mark45/33213.6%1.312/1299.3%0.78
On turf58/52111.1%1.2314/1698.3%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)4/1723.5%4.50/100.0%0.0
In fields of 16+ (small sample)5/2520.0%3.80/190.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 97 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
James Sullivan · last 14 days: 1/15 · at York: A/E 1.23 (n47) · with this yard: A/E 1.17 (n797)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 21
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph21st of 21
+0.46s
Slow away in 5 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed20th of 21
96.9%
One-paced late
Stride length19th of 21
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm43rd8479—43.0 +0.17—+0.48—
13 Jun 26York6fGood418th8581True42.0 -0.2895.1+0.43
30 May 26Carlisle5f182yGd/Frm34th8683.5True40.8 +0.73—+0.57
13 May 26York6fGd/Sft215th8793True42.1 +0.3094.3+0.37
2 May 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm35th8887Fast early41.5 -0.1896.3—
15 Apr 26Newmarket6fGood25th8890True40.3 +0.05101.7+0.46
Timed runs 2026-04-15 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split; 2 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · confirms
30 May 26 · 5f182y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 6th, 2.5L ahead · OR 86 v 84 · race median 84 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 3 meetings≈ 11.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 13th, 33.75L ahead · OR 88 v 88 · race median 90 (today 88)
COMMANCHE FALLS · 3 meetings≈ 1.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Oct 25 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 9th, 1.75L behind · OR 87 v 97 · race median 92 (today 88)
POCKLINGTON · 2 meetings≈ 1.1L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 15th vs 8th, 5.15L behind · OR 87 v 101 · race median 93 (today 88)
ROCK OPERA · 2 meetings≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
16 Aug 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 11th vs 9th, 1.05L behind · OR 87 v 80 · race median 84 (today 88)
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 15th vs 19th, 5.7L ahead · OR 87 v 91 · race median 93 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.1L behind on today's terms · line-ball
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 6th, 0.75L ahead · OR 88 v 90 · race median 90 (today 88)
MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 9.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 18th vs 1st, 11.7L behind · OR 85 v 84 · race median 81 (today 88)
TRILBY · 2 meetings · n/a
26 Apr 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 4th, 1.3L behind · OR 83 v 86 · race median 92 (today 88) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 2nd, 2L behind · OR 88 v 94 · race median 90 (today 88)
HAVANA RUM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
30 May 26 · 5f182y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 9th, 6L ahead · OR 86 v 82 · race median 84 (today 88)
YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 18th vs 19th, 1.5L ahead · OR 85 v 81 · race median 81 (today 88)
AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
7 Sep 25 · 5f89y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 2nd, 3.05L behind · OR 84 v 87 · race median 86 (today 88)
NOVELLO LAD · 1 meeting · n/a
17 Sep 24 · 5f217y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 10th, 6.4L ahead · OR 79 v 68 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 12 rival(s) met (+1.6L adj, 18 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ADDISON GREY (read through BROSAY, GWEEDORE, KORKER, ROACH POWER) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE) (read through DAIZEN, COTAI LIGHTS) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs APOLLO ONE (read through REALIGN, SONDAD, BINHAREER, STRIKE RED) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through DANDY MAGIC, JORDAN ELECTRICS, LORD ROXBY, THE CALTONIAN) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 92, 11pts above his recent average of 80.3Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway under 2f out, chased leader inside final 1f, no extra late on”
#14 YES I'M MALI MID
DRAW 16 · OR 82 · Mark Winn / David O'Meara
MARKET drifting 26 → 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
15th on the figures, 15pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #15 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 23 tries · beats market expectation (1.07)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.11% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 15lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 73 last run (NEWMARKET · 18 Jul 26)
Headgear
Visor · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.36)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 6f · rated 922ndClass 4 · 6f · rated 9019thClass 4 · 6f · rated 495thClass 2 · 6f · rated 872ndClass 4 · 6f · rated 90
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for YES I'M MALIneeds 103–103.3best 922025-02-07 · TFR 87 · 6f15y · Std · C22025-02-28 · TFR 68 · 6f · Slow · C22025-06-28 · TFR 82 · 6f · Good · C42025-07-19 · TFR 72 · 6f211y · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-06 · TFR 62 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32025-09-25 · TFR 76 · 6f · Soft · C42025-10-14 · TFR 82 · 6f · Std · C52026-03-29 · TFR 36 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52026-04-18 · TFR 87 · 6f · Good · C52026-05-16 · TFR 81 · 6f · Good · C22026-05-23 · TFR 90 · 6f · Good · C42026-05-31 · TFR 87 · 6f · Good · C22026-06-13 · TFR 49 · 6f · Good · C42026-07-04 · TFR 90 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-18 · TFR 92 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C47 Feb 2518 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2033 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after within 7 days12/9912.1%0.719/2733.3%1.77
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/1672.4%0.421/551.8%0.31
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/817.4%0.54
At York7/1176.0%0.822/513.9%0.56
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.918/1475.4%0.59
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 93 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Mark Winn · last 14 days: 2/17 · at York: A/E 0.93 (n44) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n392)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields20th of 21
-0.18 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 21
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 21
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 21
7.66 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jul 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm42nd8173—42.1 +0.22103.6-0.02—
4 Jul 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm42nd8077—43.1 +0.28105.0+0.02—
13 Jun 26York6fGood419th8181True41.6 -0.6495.1+0.16
31 May 26Thirsk6fGood25th8290.5True42.7 -0.08100.5+0.31
23 May 26York6fGood42nd7979True42.4 -0.6596.4+0.06
16 May 26Newbury6fGood27th8094True40.4 -0.22100.1+0.00
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-18. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 19th vs 1st, 13.2L behind · OR 81 v 84 · race median 81 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 2 meetings≈ 1.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
31 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 10th, 4L ahead · OR 82 v 85 · race median 90 (today 88)
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
28 Feb 25 · 6f · Slow — finished 9th vs 5th, 2.95L behind · OR 83 v 77 · race median 84 (today 88) · stale — 17m ago, not in the read
HAVANA RUM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
25 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 7th vs 4th, 1L behind · OR 76 v 77 · race median 74 (today 88)
ADDISON GREY · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 7th vs 5th, 2.25L behind · OR 80 v 94 · race median 94 (today 88)
TRILBY · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
23 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 1.5L ahead · OR 79 v 80 · race median 79 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 19th vs 18th, 1.5L behind · OR 81 v 85 · race median 81 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 6 rival(s) met (-2.5L adj, 8 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) (read through BERKSHIRE WHISPER, GRANT WOOD, BROSAY, RUSSET GOLD) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through WOVEN, RUSSET GOLD, STRIKE RED, SIR YOSHI) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs COMMANCHE FALLS (read through STRIKE RED, RUSSET GOLD, KORKER, BERGERAC) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) (read through BERGERAC, DURAN, TIRIAC, LETHAL NYMPH) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (82 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayImproving fast — last run rated 92, 15pts above his recent average of 77.0Race-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, headway over 1f out, led final 1f, headed final 100 yds, kept on”
#15 HAVANA RUM (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR 77 · Cam Hardie / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET drifting 55 → 80 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
16th on the figures, 21pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #16 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 76
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 37 tries · beats market expectation (1.06)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.37% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 11lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 77 last run (YORK · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 863rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 855thClass 3 · 6f22y · rated 809thClass 3 · 5f176y · rated 646thClass 4 · 6f · rated 85
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HAVANA RUM (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 892025-04-16 · TFR 41 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-04-26 · TFR 58 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-03 · TFR 49 · 6f · Good · C42025-05-12 · TFR 59 · 5f211y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-29 · TFR 66 · 5f183y · Soft · C52025-06-11 · TFR 74 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-18 · TFR 63 · 6f · Good · C52025-07-10 · TFR 71 · 5f183y · Good · C62025-07-28 · TFR 72 · 6f · Good · C62025-08-16 · TFR 84 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-28 · TFR 80 · 6f15y · Std · C42025-09-25 · TFR 80 · 6f · Soft · C42025-10-24 · TFR 72 · 6f · Heavy · C32025-12-04 · TFR 89 · 5f · Slow · C42025-12-18 · TFR 86 · 6f · Slow · C22025-12-30 · TFR 76 · 6f20y · Slow · C32026-04-07 · TFR 87 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C22026-05-16 · TFR 85 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-30 · TFR 64 · 5f183y · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-13 · TFR 80 · 6f18y · Gd/Sft · C32026-07-01 · TFR 85 · 6f · Good · C42026-07-11 · TFR 86 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C416 Apr 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+—4/478.5%2.11
At York—4/478.5%1.69
Above their last winning mark—18/12714.2%1.47
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—4/656.2%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 89 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Cam Hardie · last 14 days: 1/23 · at York: A/E 0.5 (n123) · with this yard: A/E 1.1 (n32)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 21
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph17th of 21
+0.32s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 21
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length11th of 21
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm43rd7877True41.7 +0.1598.3+0.32
1 Jul 26Epsom Downs6fGood43rd7980—42.9 +0.70102.7+0.15—
13 Jun 26Chester6f17yGd/Sft35th8082True40.6 -0.0399.0+0.38
30 May 26Carlisle5f182yGd/Frm39th8283.5True40.1 +0.05103.1+0.36
16 May 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft46th8380True40.9 +0.0298.8+0.24
7 Apr 26Pontefract5fGd/Sft22nd8192Fast early40.8 +0.12100.3+0.45
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.38par2f+0.41par3f+0.35par4f+0.40par5f+0.41slow6f+0.35par
Timed runs 2026-04-07 to 2026-07-11. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TRILBY · 4 meetings · n/a
20 Sep 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 22nd vs 7th, 4.5L behind · OR 74 v 76 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
NOVELLO LAD · 2 meetings≈ 5.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 6th vs 1st, 4.6L behind · OR 83 v 77 · race median 80 (today 88)
YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
25 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 4th vs 7th, 1L ahead · OR 77 v 76 · race median 74 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 1 meeting · n/a
20 Sep 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 22nd vs 15th, 2.6L behind · OR 74 v 73 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
30 May 26 · 5f182y · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 4th, 6L behind · OR 82 v 86 · race median 84 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
30 May 26 · 5f182y · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 6th, 3.5L behind · OR 82 v 84 · race median 84 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Jun 26 · 6f17y · Gd/Sft — finished 5th vs 7th, 0.85L ahead · OR 80 v 87 · race median 82 (today 88)
ROCK OPERA · 1 meeting≈ 3.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 9th, 3.25L ahead · OR 78 v 76 · race median 77 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 6 rival(s) met (+1.3L adj, 7 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through REIGNING PROFIT, DARK CLOUD RISING, WOVEN, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs APOLLO ONE (read through REALIGN, KYLIAN, TOPWARRIOR, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) (read through WRECK IT RYLEY, GRANT WOOD, WOVEN, DARK CLOUD RISING) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs POCKLINGTON (read through DARK CLOUD RISING, KYLIAN, WOVEN, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C4→C2) — earned under different conditionsYet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, headway on inner from halfway, chased leaders 1f out, no further impression”
#16 COMMANCHE FALLS MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 15 · OR 94 · Connor Beasley / Michael Dods
MARKET drifting 34 → 42 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
85.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
17th on the figures, 21.7pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
85.3 · ranked #17 here · career best 116
Official mark (OR)
94 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 26 tries · in line with the market (0.97)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.8% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 13 places on the course scale (HAMILTON PARK 15th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.74)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 2 · 6f · rated 859thClass 2 · 6f · rated 8112thClass 2 · 6f · rated 909thClass 2 · 6f110y · rated 972ndClass 2 · 6f · rated 103
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for COMMANCHE FALLSbest 116needs 103–103.32025-04-26 · TFR 99 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-05-14 · TFR 92 · 6f · Good · C22025-06-05 · TFR 105 · 6f · Good · C22025-06-19 · TFR 90 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-07-18 · TFR 101 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-02 · TFR 101 · 6f · Good · C22025-08-23 · TFR 103 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-14 · TFR 97 · 6f110y · Good · C22025-09-20 · TFR 90 · 6f · Soft · C22025-10-11 · TFR 81 · 6f · Good · C22026-07-17 · TFR 85 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C226 Apr 2517 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1255 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company10/1506.7%0.962/219.5%1.48
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)5/697.2%1.521/185.6%1.48
At York (small sample)1/402.5%0.391/137.7%1.43
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 116 at/around today's trip, clears the ~103.0 demand
The rider
Connor Beasley · last 14 days: 5/23 · at York: A/E 0.47 (n102) · with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n737)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields15th of 21
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph15th of 21
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed18th of 21
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 21
7.81 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jul 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm27th9788—42.5 +0.13102.0+0.39—
11 Oct 25York6fGood29th9792True41.7 +0.0095.9+0.22
20 Sep 25Ayr6fSoft212th9896True41.4 -0.0194.3+0.29
14 Sep 25Doncaster6f111yGood29th9995True40.8 +0.0198.9+0.20
23 Aug 25York6fGd/Frm22nd9895True42.5 +0.0097.9+0.19
2 Aug 25Goodwood6fGood27th10097Fast early42.9 -0.6697.8+0.28
Timed runs 2025-08-02 to 2026-07-17. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 12.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
20 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 12th vs 25th, 21.45L ahead · OR 98 v 97 · race median 96 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Oct 25 · 6f · Good — finished 9th vs 13th, 1.75L ahead · OR 97 v 87 · race median 92 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 3 meetings · n/a
19 Jun 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 5th, 1L behind · OR 100 v 90 · race median 90 (today 88) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
POCKLINGTON · 2 meetings≈ 2.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
14 Sep 25 · 6f111y · Good — finished 9th vs 2nd, 3.15L behind · OR 99 v 96 · race median 95 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
14 Sep 25 · 6f111y · Good — finished 9th vs 12th, 1.75L ahead · OR 99 v 88 · race median 95 (today 88)
TRILBY · 2 meetings · n/a
18 Jul 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 13th, 4.25L ahead · OR 100 v 82 · race median 90 (today 88) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
APOLLO ONE · 2 meetings≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses
2 Aug 25 · 6f · Good — finished 7th vs 10th, 1.6L ahead · OR 100 v 107 · race median 97 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 1 meeting≈ 0.6L behind on today's terms · reverses
11 Oct 25 · 6f · Good — finished 9th vs 10th, 0.2L ahead · OR 97 v 88 · race median 92 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 6 rival(s) met (+3.9L adj, 8 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs YES I'M MALI (read through STRIKE RED, RUSSET GOLD, KORKER, BERGERAC) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ROCK OPERA (read through RUSSET GOLD, STRIKE RED, JORDAN ELECTRICS, ARAMRAM) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ADDISON GREY (read through KORKER, GWEEDORE, JORDAN ELECTRICS, PUROSANGUE) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through JORDAN ELECTRICS, BERGERAC, MISTER SOX, LOOM) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 2 todayLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, plugged on”
#17 NOVELLO LAD MID
DRAW 7 · OR 89 · Paul Mulrennan / Paul Midgley
MARKET drifting 75 → 85 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
85.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
18th on the figures, 21.7pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
85.3 · ranked #18 here · career best 98
Official mark (OR)
89 · last won off 85
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 22 tries · in line with the market (1.04)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.92% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (THIRSK 12th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 83.5 last run (THIRSK · 1 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 3 · 6f · rated 621stClass 4 · 6f · rated 981stClass 4 · 6f · rated 963rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 819thClass 3 · 6f · rated 39
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for NOVELLO LADneeds 103–103.3best 982025-05-03 · TFR 71 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-19 · TFR 73 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-15 · TFR 75 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-27 · TFR 73 · 7f · Firm · C52025-07-18 · TFR 83 · 6f18y · Good · C52025-07-24 · TFR 68 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-06 · TFR 83 · 6f · Good · C42025-08-16 · TFR 67 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-16 · TFR 86 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-10-06 · TFR 39 · 6f · Soft · C32026-04-23 · TFR 81 · 5f · Good · C42026-05-16 · TFR 96 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42026-06-05 · TFR 98 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-01 · TFR 62 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C33 May 251 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Paul Midgley · 846 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦29/24212.0%1.0111/9212.0%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+2/434.7%0.881/254.0%0.61
At this time of year (Q3)28/24011.7%1.022/258.0%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/39811.3%1.039/959.5%0.81
In Class 1-3 company1/731.4%0.191/205.0%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/260.0%0.00/150.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 98 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 3/25 · at York: A/E 1.04 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0.73 (n64)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 21
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 21
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 21
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length18th of 21
7.43 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm38th8983.5True41.8 -0.1696.3+0.20
5 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm41st8579True41.3 -0.21100.7+0.11
16 May 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft41st7780True40.9 -0.02100.3+0.14
23 Apr 26Beverley5fGood43rd7877Fast early41.9 +0.0099.5+0.26
6 Oct 25Pontefract6fSoft39th7978True38.5 +0.2696.0+0.17
16 Sep 25Redcar5f217yGd/Frm42nd7774True42.9 +0.16100.7+0.35
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.40slow2f+0.37par3f+0.30par4f+0.17par5f+0.36par6f+1.70very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-16 to 2026-07-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
TRILBY · 3 meetings≈ 4.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
23 Apr 26 · 5f · Good — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 1.25L behind · OR 78 v 75 · race median 77 (today 88)
HAVANA RUM (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 1st vs 6th, 4.6L ahead · OR 77 v 83 · race median 80 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 10.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Oct 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 9th vs 5th, 6L behind · OR 79 v 86 · race median 78 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
17 Sep 24 · 5f217y · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 5th, 6.4L behind · OR 68 v 79 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
1 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 3rd, 8.8L behind · OR 89 v 89 · race median 84 (today 88)
Read through a common rival
vs APOLLO ONE (read through INDIAN RUN, FINE INTERVIEW) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs POCKLINGTON (read through AMERICAN STYLE, INDIAN RUN, ORNE, PHOTOSYNTHESIS) ≈ -5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, GRANT WOOD, LORD BERTIE, COACHELLO) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) (read through WRECK IT RYLEY, BERGERAC, LORD ROXBY, KATS BOB) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (89 today vs 85)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, hung left over 1f out, weakened”
#18 BALDOMERO (IRE) MID
DRAW 12 · OR 84 · Toby Moore / Michael Appleby
MARKET drifting 60 → 75 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
85.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
19th on the figures, 21.7pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
85.3 · ranked #19 here · career best 98
Official mark (OR)
84 · last won off 90
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 38 tries · beats market expectation (1.64)
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.95% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 93.5 last run (WINDSOR · 29 Jun 26)
Headgear
Visor · yard 10% with first-time gear (A/E 0.96)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 2 · 6f22y · rated 847thClass 3 · 6f22y · rated 843rdClass 3 · 5f · rated 886thClass 2 · 6f · rated 8614thClass 3 · 6f · rated 52
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BALDOMERO (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 982025-05-12 · TFR 66 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C32025-05-31 · TFR 73 · 6f · Good · C32025-06-07 · TFR 95 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-19 · TFR 89 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-19 · TFR 78 · 7f · Std · C32025-09-06 · TFR 9 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-14 · TFR 80 · 6f110y · Good · C22025-10-06 · TFR 68 · 6f · Soft · C32025-10-24 · TFR 86 · 6f · Heavy · C42025-11-20 · TFR 92 · 6f15y · Std · C42025-11-26 · TFR 86 · 6f15y · Std · C22025-12-20 · TFR 98 · 5f22y · Slow · C22025-12-31 · TFR 98 · 5f · Std · C32026-01-10 · TFR 91 · 5f · Std · C32026-03-04 · TFR 78 · 4f213y · Std · C32026-03-29 · TFR 52 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32026-04-15 · TFR 86 · 6f · Good · C22026-06-06 · TFR 88 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-13 · TFR 84 · 6f18y · Gd/Sft · C32026-06-29 · TFR 84 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C212 May 2529 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Appleby · 1557 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/695.8%0.891/254.0%0.67
At this time of year (Q3)45/32813.7%1.224/488.3%0.82
In Class 1-3 company ✦26/2918.9%0.985/786.4%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)1/382.6%0.330/110.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 100 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Toby Moore · last 14 days: 0/3 · at York: A/E 4.06 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 21
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 21
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 21
99.0%
One-paced late
Stride length20th of 21
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm23rd8593.5True42.4 -0.27100.1—
13 Jun 26Chester6f17yGd/Sft37th8782True40.7 +0.0497.9+0.21
6 Jun 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm33rd8886True43.3 +0.49103.0+0.29
15 Apr 26Newmarket6fGood26th9090True39.9 -0.36100.2+0.00
29 Mar 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft314th9186True39.1 -0.1494.2-0.01
4 Mar 26Southwell4f214yStd35th9292True42.4 +0.0198.3-0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.25slow2f+0.38slow3f+0.46par4f+0.49par5f+0.41par6f+0.75slow
Timed runs 2026-03-04 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
COMMANCHE FALLS · 2 meetings≈ 2.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
14 Sep 25 · 6f111y · Good — finished 12th vs 9th, 1.75L behind · OR 88 v 99 · race median 95 (today 88)
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses
29 Jun 26 · 6f12y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 1.25L behind · OR 85 v 93 · race median 94 (today 88)
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.1L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 6th vs 5th, 0.75L behind · OR 90 v 88 · race median 90 (today 88)
TRILBY · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
6 Oct 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 5th vs 3rd, 6.5L behind · OR 86 v 77 · race median 78 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 6.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
4 Mar 26 · 4f214y · Std — finished 5th vs 2nd, 3.8L behind · OR 92 v 96 · race median 92 (today 88)
POCKLINGTON · 1 meeting≈ 1.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
14 Sep 25 · 6f111y · Good — finished 12th vs 2nd, 4.9L behind · OR 88 v 96 · race median 95 (today 88)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE · 1 meeting≈ 33.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 6th vs 13th, 33L ahead · OR 90 v 88 · race median 90 (today 88)
HAVANA RUM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
13 Jun 26 · 6f17y · Gd/Sft — finished 7th vs 5th, 0.85L behind · OR 87 v 80 · race median 82 (today 88)
NOVELLO LAD · 1 meeting≈ 10.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Oct 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 5th vs 9th, 6L ahead · OR 86 v 79 · race median 78 (today 88)
APOLLO ONE · 1 meeting · n/a
3 Jun 23 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 2nd, 11.25L behind · OR 90 v 97 · race median 88 (today 88) · stale — 38m ago, not in the read
WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Nov 25 · 6f16y · Std — finished 9th vs 4th, 1.95L behind · OR 87 v 95 · race median 92 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 10 rival(s) met (+3.5L adj, 11 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through SIXTYGEESBABY, DOUBLE RUSH, TERRITORIAL KNIGHT, DILIGENTLY) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) (read through WOVEN, KODIAC THRILLER, IRISH NECTAR, GRANT WOOD) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs STRATUSNINE (IRE) (read through SQUEALER, SMART VISION, PUREST TIME, REIGNING PROFIT) ≈ +1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ADDISON GREY (read through EL BODON, KORKER, INVICTUS GOLD, NORTHERN SPIRIT) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (84 today vs 90)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayProven over the trip (38 tries, beats market expectation at 1.64)Jockey goes well at this track (4.06x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, under pressure over 2f out, one paced”
#19 ETERNAL SUNSHINE PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 83 · Lauren Young / Jim Goldie
MARKET drifting 20 → 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
84 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
20th on the figures, 23pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
84 · ranked #20 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
83 · last won off 84
Record at today's distance
8 wins from 34 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.16% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 80.5 last run (YORK · 10 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 4 · 5f · rated 722ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 934thClass 4 · 6f · rated 879thClass 2 · 6f · rated 6410thClass 2 · 6f · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ETERNAL SUNSHINEneeds 103–103.3best 962025-04-02 · TFR 58 · 5f · Good · C32025-04-13 · TFR 57 · 5f · Good · C42025-04-19 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C42025-05-21 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-05 · TFR 56 · 5f · Good · C52025-07-14 · TFR 79 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-31 · TFR 59 · 6f20y · Std · C42025-08-12 · TFR 82 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-20 · TFR 82 · 5f · Good · C22025-08-21 · TFR 63 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-29 · TFR 88 · 6f · Good · C32025-09-06 · TFR 91 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C32025-09-13 · TFR 96 · 5f143y · Good · C22025-09-19 · TFR 89 · 6f · Soft · C22025-09-29 · TFR 81 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-10-10 · TFR 96 · 5f · Good · C32025-10-11 · TFR 72 · 6f · Good · C22026-04-04 · TFR 58 · 5f · Soft · C22026-05-14 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C22026-05-31 · TFR 74 · 6f · Good · C22026-06-12 · TFR 64 · 6f · Good · C22026-06-20 · TFR 87 · 6f · Soft · C42026-07-03 · TFR 93 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-10 · TFR 72 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42 Apr 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1477 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, in fields of 8-11, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15913.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/333.0%0.40/220.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips71/40917.4%1.4410/1666.0%0.52
In fields of 16+8/6612.1%2.11/254.0%0.56
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.37/838.4%0.6
In Class 1-3 company18/1939.3%1.224/636.3%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 98 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Lauren Young · last 14 days: 0/10 · at York: A/E 0 (n20) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n305)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields19th of 21
-0.16 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 21
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 21
99.2%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 21
7.71 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26York5fGd/Frm46th8280.5Fast early43.0 -0.1297.8+0.07
3 Jul 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm42nd8275True42.4 -0.19101.5+0.00
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft44th8276True41.0 -0.3099.2+0.07
12 Jun 26York6fGood29th8581.5True41.4 +0.0799.9+0.03
31 May 26Thirsk6fGood210th8590.5True42.4 -0.34100.5+0.19
14 May 26York5fGood213th8788True42.5 -0.0696.0-0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.15par2f+0.35par3f+0.36par4f+0.42slow5f+0.75slow
Timed runs 2026-05-14 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 11.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 5th, 33.75L behind · OR 88 v 88 · race median 90 (today 88)
MUSICAL TOUCH (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 11.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
19 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 3rd vs 15th, 9.05L ahead · OR 82 v 83 · race median 80 (today 88)
YES I'M MALI · 2 meetings≈ 1.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
31 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 10th vs 5th, 4L behind · OR 85 v 82 · race median 90 (today 88)
AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 3.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
14 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 13th vs 12th, 0.05L behind · OR 87 v 90 · race median 88 (today 88)
COUL ANGEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 34.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 2nd, 35.75L behind · OR 88 v 94 · race median 90 (today 88)
BALDOMERO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 33.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 6th, 33L behind · OR 88 v 90 · race median 90 (today 88)
TRILBY · 1 meeting · n/a
20 Sep 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 15th vs 7th, 1.9L behind · OR 73 v 76 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
HAVANA RUM (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
20 Sep 24 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 15th vs 22nd, 2.6L ahead · OR 73 v 74 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
COMMANCHE FALLS · 1 meeting≈ 0.6L ahead on today's terms · confirms
11 Oct 25 · 6f · Good — finished 10th vs 9th, 0.2L behind · OR 88 v 97 · race median 92 (today 88)
ADDISON GREY · 1 meeting≈ 5.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 1st vs 10th, 4.5L ahead · OR 84 v 93 · race median 93 (today 88)
APOLLO ONE · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.5L ahead · OR 84 v 102 · race median 93 (today 88)
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.6L ahead on today's terms · confirms
13 Sep 25 · 5f143y · Good — finished 1st vs 6th, 2.6L ahead · OR 84 v 87 · race median 93 (today 88)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 10 rival(s) met (-5.4L adj, 15 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through RUSSET GOLD, STRIKE RED, SIR YOSHI, PUREST TIME) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs NOVELLO LAD (read through BERGERAC, JENEVER, MISTER SOX, JUAN LES PINS) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs POCKLINGTON (read through RUSSET GOLD, SIR YOSHI, WOVEN, BINHAREER) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through DANDY MAGIC, ORIENTAL PRINCE, JORDAN ELECTRICS, BERGERAC) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 2 todayProven over the trip (34 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden over 1f out, hung right, one paced”
#20 ROCK OPERA HELD-UP
DRAW 14 · OR 76 · Ethan Tindall / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET drifting 36 → 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
81.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
21st on the figures, 25.3pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
81.7 · ranked #21 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 31 tries · below market expectation (0.56)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.8% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 11lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 77 last run (YORK · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 4 · 6f · rated 732ndClass 3 · 6f · rated 861stClass 4 · 6f · rated 864thClass 4 · 6f · rated 743rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 75
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROCK OPERAneeds 103–103.3best 882025-04-17 · TFR 61 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-04-30 · TFR 82 · 6f · Good · C42025-05-17 · TFR 82 · 6f · Firm · C42025-05-31 · TFR 81 · 6f · Firm · C42025-06-15 · TFR 81 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-07-05 · TFR 81 · 6f · Good · C42025-07-12 · TFR 78 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-26 · TFR 85 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-16 · TFR 71 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-12 · TFR 79 · 6f · Good · C42025-10-03 · TFR 59 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C22025-11-01 · TFR 52 · 6f · Good · C42026-04-16 · TFR 69 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-02 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-17 · TFR 74 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-02 · TFR 86 · 6f · Good · C42026-06-21 · TFR 86 · 6f · Good · C32026-07-11 · TFR 73 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C417 Apr 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+—4/478.5%2.11
At York—4/478.5%1.69
Above their last winning mark—18/12714.2%1.47
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—4/656.2%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 88 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Ethan Tindall · last 14 days: 1/13 · at York: A/E 1.89 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 0.43 (n48)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 21
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 21
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed13th of 21
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 21
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm49th7677True41.1 -0.4498.7+0.37
21 Jun 26Pontefract6fGood32nd7576.5True40.0 +0.54100.1+0.11
2 Jun 26Pontefract6fGood41st7076True40.0 -0.1199.9+0.04
17 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood44th7077True44.7 +0.3596.2+0.20
2 May 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm43rd7074True42.1 +0.05101.6+0.24
16 Apr 26Ripon6fGd/Sft47th7279True41.5 -0.1896.3—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.50par2f+0.54par3f+0.74slow4f+0.82par5f+0.79slow6f+0.86par
Timed runs 2026-04-16 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ROUSING ENCORE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
16 Aug 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 11th, 1.05L ahead · OR 80 v 87 · race median 84 (today 88)
POCKLINGTON · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jul 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 5th, 0.2L ahead · OR 79 v 95 · race median 94 (today 88)
HAVANA RUM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 3rd, 3.25L behind · OR 76 v 78 · race median 77 (today 88)
TRILBY · 1 meeting · n/a
13 Jul 24 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 9th vs 4th, 4.25L behind · OR 80 v 72 · race median 74 (today 88) · stale — 24m ago, not in the read
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Aug 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 6th, 1.8L behind · OR 80 v 87 · race median 84 (today 88)
Read through a common rival
vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through RUSSET GOLD, SONDAD, TUCO SALAMANCA, STRIKE RED) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs STRATUSNINE (IRE) (read through INTERVENTION, MR COOL, SECRET GUEST, FISCAL POLICY) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs AIR FORCE ONE (IRE) (read through ABERAMA GOLD, AMERICAN BAY, WEN MOON, JORDAN ELECTRICS) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs NOVELLO LAD (read through WRECK IT RYLEY, MISTER SOX, THE GOOD BISCUIT, LORD BERTIE) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.89x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, headway wide early in straight, pushed along approaching final 1f, kept on”
#21 UTMOST RESPECT (IRE) MID
DRAW 4 · OR 82 · Amie Waugh / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET drifting 90 → 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
22nd on the figures, 27pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #22 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
82 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · below market expectation (0.68)
Days since last run
288
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.91% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 88 vs 82 last run (YORK · 10 Oct 25)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 5f · rated 804thClass 2 · 6f · rated 7514thClass 2 · 6f · rated 751stClass 4 · 5f · rated 807thClass 1 · 5f · rated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for UTMOST RESPECT (IRE)needs 103–103.3best 822025-05-14 · TFR 79 · 5f · Good · C22025-06-18 · TFR 82 · 5f · Firm · C12025-07-12 · TFR 80 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-20 · TFR 75 · 6f · Good · C22025-09-19 · TFR 75 · 6f · Soft · C22025-10-10 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C314 May 2510 Oct 25
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 288 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+—4/478.5%2.11
At York—4/478.5%1.69
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 82 is below the ~103.0 the race demands
The rider
Amie Waugh · at York: A/E 0 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 88 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields14th of 21
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 21
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed12th of 21
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 21
7.65 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Oct 25York5fGood34th8482True41.8 -0.1398.0+0.20
19 Sep 25Ayr6fSoft24th8685True39.3 -0.2494.6+0.30
20 Aug 25York6fGood214th8779True40.9 +0.0695.3+0.14
12 Jul 25Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm41st——Slow early41.9 +0.05101.6+0.15
18 Jun 25Ascot5fFirm17th——True41.4 -0.04100.7+0.07
14 May 25York5fGood22nd——Slow early39.9 +0.07103.3+0.14
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.22fast2f+0.25par3f+0.12par4f+0.16par5f+0.42slow
Timed runs 2025-05-14 to 2025-10-10 · last timed run 288 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs EVENING BLUES (IRE) (read through BYE LAW, DACRES CROSS) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RED SPELLS DANGER (IRE) (read through GO VINCE GO, MIGHTY MAGNUS, RUBY'S ANGEL, MO OF CAIRO) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 288 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, pushed along 2f out, close up over 1f out, weakened final 1f”