BUILT 12:52 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Good in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 1-3
33
33.3%
57.6%
42.4%
60.6%
middle (9-12f)
41
41.5%
70.7%
39%
70.7%
non-handicaps
65
35.4%
55.4%
35.4%
63.1%
small fields (<=7)
136
33.8%
66.2%
35.3%
70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here spend about 48% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE) leads on 120, 3pts clear of PRIDE OF ARRAS (IRE) — proven at the trip. The case against the top pick: its sectional profile is out of date. The shape danger is PRIDE OF ARRAS (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making DAMYSUS the 34% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE)
OR · Clifford Lee / K. R. Burke
MARKET drifting 3.9 → 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
120.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayThe top rating in this field (120.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 2.62)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
PRIDE OF ARRAS (IRE)
OR · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET drifting 7.6 → 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance
117.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #2 in this field (117.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
DAMYSUS
OR · James Doyle / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET backed 3.65 → 2.9 · the market rates it a 34% chance
114.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #3 in this field (114.3)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE)net +10figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here − sectional profile stale
2ITEMnet +8form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
3DAMYSUSnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, sharp from the stalls, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE) carries its sectional profile is out of date. ITEM is the one to beat it — an edge ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE) lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 41% · front-runners 28% (33 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, flat, galloping 5f run-in; most horses get a clear run finish. Winners’ energy signature: 48.5% spent early (band 47.3–49.13%, 45 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.51s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · PRIDE OF ARRAS (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · DAMYSUS is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE)PROMINENT48.0%106.6just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
DAMYSUSMID50.6%100.7solid late gains (5th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DANCING GEMINI (IRE)MID49.2%102.8solid late gains (4th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
PRIDE OF ARRAS (IRE)MID48.1%104.9a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ITEMPROMINENT48.5%103.7the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ITEMPROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1ROYAL CHAMPION (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR · Clifford Lee / K. R. Burke
MARKET drifting 3.9 → 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
120.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, proven at the trip; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
120.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 121
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (2.62)
Days since last run
315
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 106.57% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 315 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
K. R. Burke · 1725 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦92/52017.7%1.0515/5825.9%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips24/13218.2%1.43/486.2%0.45
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 121 at/around today's trip, clears the ~117.0 demand
The rider
Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 3/16· at York: A/E 0.85 (n130)· with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n795)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.73 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
-0.08s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
106.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2024-12-31 to 2025-07-26 · last timed run 364 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayThe top rating in this field (120.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 2.62)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 315 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader, second home turn, ridden early in straight, one paced”
#2PRIDE OF ARRAS (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET drifting 7.6 → 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
117.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
117.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 117
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (24.0)
Days since last run
339
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.86% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 339 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦71/51413.8%0.9524/18313.1%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)10/6116.4%1.192/922.2%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 117 at/around today's trip, clears the ~117.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 14/61· at York: A/E 1.11 (n124)· with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n671)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
104.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.99 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Aug 25York1m3f188yGood11st——True40.1 +0.55108.8+0.08
7 Jun 25Epsom Downs1m4fGd/Sft117th——True37.2 -1.2695.6+0.28
15 May 25York1m2f56yGood11st——True39.8 +0.53108.0+0.13
8 Aug 24Sandown Park1mGood41st——True37.4 +0.02107.0+0.18
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2024-08-08 to 2025-08-20 · last timed run 339 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
7 Jun 25 · 1m4f · Gd/Sft — finished 17th vs 18th, 1.75L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #2 in this field (117.0)Improving fast — last run rated 117, 40pts above his recent average of 77.0Only 1 run at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultReturns from 339 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 2 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“waited with, ridden and headway wide over 2f out, led 1f out, kept up to work”
#3DAMYSUSMID
DRAW 3 · OR · James Doyle / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET backed 3.65 → 2.9 · the market rates it a 34% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
114.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 5.7pts off the top, fit and race-ready; solid late gains (5th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
114.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 121
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (2.53)
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.66% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Thady Gosden · 1252 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)72/36519.7%0.9614/2751.9%1.99
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)8/4418.2%0.975/1145.5%1.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 121 at/around today's trip, clears the ~117.0 demand
The rider
James Doyle · last 14 days: 2/14· at York: A/E 1.07 (n57)· with this yard: A/E 1.1 (n73)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Ascot1mGd/Frm15th——Slow early40.2 +0.3698.1+0.05
Timed runs 2025-05-15 to 2026-06-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
PRIDE OF ARRAS (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
7 Jun 25 · 1m4f · Gd/Sft — finished 18th vs 17th, 1.75L behind
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 6th vs 4th, 3.25L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-2.2L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayRated #3 in this field (114.3)Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“held up, headway 3f out, shaken up after, took second 2f out, not quicken hung right after, weakened inside final 1f”
#4DANCING GEMINI (IRE)MID
DRAW 1 · OR · Kieran Shoemark / Roger Teal
MARKET backed 14 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
110.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 10pts off the top, fit and race-ready; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
110.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 118
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
38
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.76% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Roger Teal · 481 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company7/789.0%0.90/150.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)11/1179.4%0.850/160.0%0.0
In fields of <=78/7211.1%0.81/313.2%0.26
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2079.7%0.823/694.3%0.42
On turf ✦19/1939.8%0.895/707.1%0.65
Over 9-10f trips7/5812.1%1.052/2010.0%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)1/250.0%12.260/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 118 at/around today's trip, clears the ~117.0 demand
The rider
Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 5/36· at York: A/E 1.1 (n57)· with this yard: A/E 0.52 (n20)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.09 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot1m1f212yGd/Frm15th——True38.7 -0.64102.1+0.31
16 May 26Newbury1mGood14th——True40.8 +0.86101.7+0.28
Timed runs 2025-05-17 to 2026-06-17. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 4th vs 6th, 3.25L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+3.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“rear, shaken up 3f out, plugged on final 1f, never on terms”
#5ITEMPROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR · Rob Hornby / Andrew Balding
MARKET drifting 3.6 → 3.95 · the market rates it a 25% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
94.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 25.3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
94.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 117
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (7.18)
Days since last run
49
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.74% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2437 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At York21/9721.6%1.636/2821.4%1.25
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 117 at/around today's trip, clears the ~117.0 demand
The rider
Rob Hornby · last 14 days: 4/38· at York: A/E 0 (n23)· with this yard: A/E 1.08 (n189)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m4fSoft19th——True35.2 -0.6997.3+0.27
14 May 26York1m2f56yGood11st——True38.6 +0.38103.1+0.04
Timed runs 2025-09-03 to 2026-06-06. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 1 winner, racing in Class 1 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits