FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
York · 15:05
Class 4 · 7f191y · Good to Firm (Good in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 76
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 17 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:52 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Good in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 47225%58.3%29.2%62.5%
miles (7-9f)4922.4%49%22.4%42.9%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (85% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (59% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, PALADIN (IRE) leads on 86, 0pts clear of RAJAPOUR (IRE) — backed since the morning. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is BARLEY (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making RAJAPOUR (IRE) the 15% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
PALADIN (IRE)
OR 79 · Rossa Ryan / Kevin & Lauren Frost
MARKET backed 17.5 → 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (86.0)Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 2.19)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
RAJAPOUR (IRE)
OR 76 · Mark Winn / David O'Meara
MARKET 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (86.0)Race-fit — ran 6 days ago
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 14
CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE)
OR 77 · Tom Eaves / Gihan Arnolda
MARKET drifting 10.5 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
84.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Rated #3 in this field (84.0)Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1DWINDLING FUNDSnet +8drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, sharp from the stalls, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on recency − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2FINAL NIGHTnet +8drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard hot, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency, meets much weaker company by the marks
3PALADIN (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. DWINDLING FUNDS is the one to beat it — an edge PALADIN (IRE) lacks: sharp from the stalls.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
FINAL NIGHT  FIGURE #9
John Butler's runners dropping in class win 25.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 41% · front-runners 36% (22 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, flat, galloping 5f run-in; most horses get a clear run finish. Winners’ energy signature: 49.31% spent early (band 48.47–50.27%, 32 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.34s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
33 similar races at YORK, 6.9-8.9f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (85% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (59% from the first three favourites). 24% won last time out, 15% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
29% 5yo
29% 4yo
26% 6yo+
Last ran
71% 15-45d
15% within 14d
9% 46-90d
Market
41% 4th+ in the market
24% favourite
18% 3rd favourite
LTO form
59% unplaced last time
24% won last time
15% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 17 runners · stalls 1–17
1234567891011121314151617
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–17).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: PALADIN (IRE) is 1/4 on softer ground · RAJAPOUR (IRE) is 1/5 on softer ground · CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
FINAL NIGHT HELD-UP 50.2% 102.6 solid late gains (6th of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SON MID 50.3% 98.6 one-paced late — 15th of 17 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
PALADIN (IRE) MID 50.3% 99.3 one-paced late — 14th of 17 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
CANVAS FRONT 51.0% 97.8 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
FINANCER MID 50.9% 102.4 solid late gains (7th of 17 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) MID 49.4% 100.4 one-paced late — 11th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
DWINDLING FUNDS FRONT 50.8% 100.9 a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE) MID 49.6% 102.9 solid late gains (4th of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
RAJAPOUR (IRE) HELD-UP 48.4% 103.4 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
ENOLA GREY (IRE) HELD-UP 49.0% 102.2 solid late gains (8th of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MONTEZIN MID 50.8% 97.9 held up without the late gear (16th of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
BOWOOD HELD-UP 49.3% 103.1 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BARRY'S BOY (IRE) PROMINENT 49.7% 101.9 concedes ~1.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
DRAUPNIR MID 49.3% 102.7 solid late gains (5th of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
UP THE JAZZ (IRE) MID 49.9% 99.4 one-paced late — 13th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
BARLEY (IRE) HELD-UP 49.1% 104.2 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) MID 49.9% 99.7 one-paced late — 12th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
CANVASFRONTtypically ~2.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best
DWINDLING FUNDSFRONTtypically ~2.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
BARRY'S BOY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.22s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 PALADIN (IRE) MID
DRAW 7 · OR 79 · Rossa Ryan / Kevin & Lauren Frost
MARKET backed 17.5 → 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, backed since the morning; one-paced late — 14th of 17 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (2.19)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.34% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 80.5 last run (ASCOT · 10 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 1m · rated 8618thClass 4 · 7f · rated 611stClass 4 · 1m132y · rated 835thClass 4 · 1m · rated 652ndClass 4 · 1m22y · rated 86
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PALADIN (IRE)needs 86–87best 862025-06-19 · TFR 80 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-08 · TFR 79 · 1m · Good · C52025-07-19 · TFR 38 · 1m · Soft · C42025-08-09 · TFR 81 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-23 · TFR 71 · 1m · Good · C42025-10-03 · TFR 86 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-10-17 · TFR 65 · 1m · Std · C42026-01-16 · TFR 83 · 1m143y · Std · C42026-05-23 · TFR 61 · 7f · Good · C42026-07-10 · TFR 86 · 1m · Firm · C419 Jun 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin & Lauren Frost
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 14/61 · at York: A/E 1.11 (n124) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 17
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 17
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed14th of 17
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 17
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Ascot1mFirm42nd7980.5True38.9 -0.42102.5+0.10
23 May 26York7fGood418th7975.5—40.1 -0.0195.4+0.51
16 Jan 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd41st7778True38.5 +0.49105.8+0.04
17 Oct 25Newcastle1mStd45th7877.5True40.1 -0.1195.1+0.22
3 Oct 25Southwell1m13yStd42nd7677Fast early39.7 +0.7798.8+0.08
23 Aug 25Redcar1mGood47th7777True40.2 +0.0898.4+0.24
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.03slow2f+0.08slow3f+0.09par4f+0.03fast5f+0.07par6fledpar7f+0.03par1m+0.26fast
Timed runs 2025-08-23 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 Jan 26 · 1m142y · Std — finished 1st vs 9th, 10.95L ahead · OR 77 v 78 · race median 78 (today 76)
BARLEY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Jul 25 · 1m · Soft — finished 6th vs 2nd, 13.2L behind · OR 73 v 83 · race median 80 (today 76) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+8.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DRAUPNIR (read through QUEST FOR FUN, LEADMAN, TELE RED) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs UP THE JAZZ (IRE) (read through URBAN ROAD, THEME PARK, ELECTRIC AVENUE, GARDEN OASIS) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FINANCER (read through HALE END, DOUBLE PARKED, GARDEN OASIS, DEBORA'S DREAM) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MONTEZIN (read through HAVANA PRINCE, QUEST FOR FUN, LEADMAN, MERESIDE DIVA) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (86.0)Improving fast — last run rated 86, 9pts above his recent average of 76.7Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 2.19)BOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-3 jockey booked, only 2 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“pressed leader, ridden when led under 2f out, joined when hung left over 1f out, headed final 100 yds”
#2 RAJAPOUR (IRE) HELD-UP DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 1 · OR 76 · Mark Winn / David O'Meara
MARKET 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 71
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 23 tries · below market expectation (0.79)
Days since last run
6
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.42% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 29 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 73 last run (REDCAR · 19 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.36)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 1m · rated 864thClass 5 · 1m · rated 769thClass 4 · 7f176y · rated 746thClass 5 · 1m · rated 743rdClass 5 · 7f88y · rated 80
Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RAJAPOUR (IRE)best 90needs 86–872025-05-19 · TFR 82 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-07 · TFR 90 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-21 · TFR 87 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-10-04 · TFR 89 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C22025-10-11 · TFR 59 · 1m2f55y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-10-25 · TFR 44 · 7f · Heavy · C42025-11-06 · TFR 78 · 1m · Slow · C42025-11-21 · TFR 71 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-12-06 · TFR 66 · 1m143y · Slow · C42025-12-15 · TFR 83 · 1m143y · Std · C52025-12-27 · TFR 73 · 1m143y · Slow · C42026-01-16 · TFR 58 · 1m143y · Std · C42026-02-06 · TFR 77 · 1m · Std · C42026-02-14 · TFR 71 · 1m · Slow · C42026-02-24 · TFR 63 · 1m13y · Std · C52026-04-07 · TFR 41 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C52026-04-26 · TFR 81 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-05 · TFR 75 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-16 · TFR 81 · 1m · Good · C52026-05-27 · TFR 80 · 7f97y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-15 · TFR 74 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-24 · TFR 74 · 7f174y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-07 · TFR 76 · 1m · Good · C52026-07-19 · TFR 86 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C519 May 2519 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2033 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after within 7 days12/9912.1%0.719/2733.3%1.77
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+4/1672.4%0.421/551.8%0.31
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/817.4%0.54
At York7/1176.0%0.822/513.9%0.56
Over 7-8f trips90/72812.4%1.0215/2077.2%0.73
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Mark Winn · last 14 days: 2/17 · at York: A/E 0.93 (n44) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n392)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 17
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph16th of 17
+0.53s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 17
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length12th of 17
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jul 26Redcar1mGd/Frm51st7173—39.3 -0.09105.6+0.26—
7 Jul 26Pontefract1mGood54th7272True37.8 +0.21102.4+0.38
24 Jun 26Carlisle7f173yGd/Frm49th7478.5True39.8 +0.5098.4+0.72
15 Jun 26Wetherby1mGd/Frm56th7473True40.7 +0.46106.6+0.83
27 May 26Beverley7f96yGd/Frm53rd7369True39.4 -0.2797.3+0.50
16 May 26Thirsk1mGood53rd7372.5True40.6 +0.82110.0+0.46
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-19. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BOWOOD · 4 meetings≈ 1.0L ahead on today's terms · confirms
19 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 4.75L ahead · OR 71 v 74 · race median 73 (today 76)
BARLEY (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 0.0L behind on today's terms · line-ball
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 3rd vs 6th, 2.65L ahead · OR 73 v 69 · race median 72 (today 76)
CANVAS · 2 meetings≈ 3.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 14th, 6.8L ahead · OR 74 v 80 · race median 78 (today 76)
FINANCER · 2 meetings≈ 2.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 5th, 1.8L behind · OR 74 v 73 · race median 78 (today 76)
ENOLA GREY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 6th, 1.3L behind · OR 74 v 77 · race median 78 (today 76)
BARRY'S BOY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 Dec 25 · 1m142y · Std — finished 1st vs 2nd, 1.5L ahead · OR 74 v 70 · race median 70 (today 76)
DWINDLING FUNDS · 1 meeting≈ 6.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
25 Oct 25 · 7f · Heavy — finished 13th vs 6th, 10.75L behind · OR 82 v 73 · race median 75 (today 76)
PALADIN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Jan 26 · 1m142y · Std — finished 9th vs 1st, 10.95L behind · OR 78 v 77 · race median 78 (today 76)
FINAL NIGHT · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
6 Feb 26 · 1m · Std — finished 5th vs 3rd, 1.75L behind · OR 77 v 75 · race median 80 (today 76)
Read through a common rival
vs CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) (read through SEA SUITE, RAINBOW NEBULA, TERRIES ROYALE, PROSPERITAS) ≈ -5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE) (read through WAR HOWL, WOODSTOCK, GREAT BLASKET, STENMARK) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DRAUPNIR (read through WOODSTOCK, SUNNY ORANGE, PENELOPE'S SISTER, PEARL EYE) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SON (read through WAR HOWL, PERSUASION, ABDUCTION, LIR SPECIALE) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 71)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (86.0)Race-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“held up, ridden when came wide entering straight, headway late on, never on terms”
#3 CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 14 · OR 77 · Tom Eaves / Gihan Arnolda
MARKET drifting 10.5 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
84.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 2pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.42% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 7f · rated 844thClass 4 · 1m · rated 834thClass 4 · 7f · rated 781stClass 5 · 1m · rated 841stClass 5 · 7f22y · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE)needs 86–87best 852025-05-29 · TFR 38 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C52025-07-04 · TFR 79 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-01 · TFR 79 · 7f13y · Std · C52025-08-15 · TFR 84 · 1m · Good · C52025-10-03 · TFR 78 · 7f · Good · C42026-06-18 · TFR 83 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-11 · TFR 84 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C429 May 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gihan Arnolda
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Tom Eaves · last 14 days: 3/21 · at York: A/E 1 (n119)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 17
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 17
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 17
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length13th of 17
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Ascot7fGd/Frm44th7775True41.3 +0.58101.3+0.50
18 Jun 26Yarmouth1mGd/Frm44th7877True40.0 -0.1499.6+0.01
3 Oct 25Ascot7fGood44th7875Fast early37.9 -0.1393.9+0.07
15 Aug 25Newmarket1mGood51st7267True39.8 +0.36102.1+0.21
1 Aug 25Southwell7f14yStd51st6966True39.9 +0.02102.9+0.01
4 Jul 25Doncaster7f213yGd/Frm52nd6867True39.3 +0.21102.8-0.35
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.78slow2f+0.66par3f+0.63par4f+0.66par5f+0.48fast6f+0.30par7f+0.28slow
Timed runs 2025-07-04 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ENOLA GREY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 8th, 1.85L ahead · OR 77 v 76 · race median 75 (today 76)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RAJAPOUR (IRE) (read through SEA SUITE, RAINBOW NEBULA, TERRIES ROYALE, PROSPERITAS) ≈ +5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANVAS (read through KNIGHTS GOLD, GORGEOUS MR GEORGE, ONEMORENOMORE) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BARRY'S BOY (IRE) (read through WINSTON'S WARRIOR, HOSTELRY) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DWINDLING FUNDS (read through RAINBOW NEBULA, TERRIES ROYALE, WHO WANTS ME, PROSPERITAS) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (77 today vs 72)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (84.0)Proven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“close up, led over 2f out, headed final 1f, wandered, no extra”
#4 SON MID
DRAW 6 · OR 79 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
83.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 2.7pts off the top, dropping in class; one-paced late — 15th of 17 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
83.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 101
Official mark (OR)
79 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 19 tries · below market expectation (0.52)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.64% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 11lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 87 last run (YORK · 10 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
13thClass 3 · 7f · rated 734thClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 863rdClass 3 · 7f · rated 917thClass 2 · 7f · rated 759thClass 3 · 7f · rated 76
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SONbest 101needs 86–872025-04-12 · TFR 88 · 1m · Good · C22025-04-30 · TFR 81 · 1m · Firm · C32025-06-13 · TFR 89 · 1m1f209y · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-07-10 · TFR 59 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-13 · TFR 79 · 7f · Slow · C42025-09-05 · TFR 82 · 7f · Std · C42026-04-18 · TFR 90 · 7f · Good · C42026-05-09 · TFR 91 · 6f211y · Good · C42026-05-16 · TFR 76 · 7f · Good · C32026-06-05 · TFR 75 · 7f · Gd/Sft · C22026-06-13 · TFR 91 · 7f · Good · C32026-06-30 · TFR 86 · 7f15y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-10 · TFR 73 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C312 Apr 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25
In fields of 16+1/1550.6%0.152/543.7%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 101 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
David Allan · last 14 days: 5/48 · at York: A/E 0.23 (n115) · with this yard: A/E 0.82 (n1592)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 17
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph15th of 17
+0.43s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed15th of 17
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 17
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26York7fGd/Frm313th8187True40.8 -0.3094.8+0.32
30 Jun 26Musselburgh7f15yGd/Frm44th8172True40.5 +0.84102.7+1.30
13 Jun 26York7fGood33rd8187True39.8 -0.2799.4+0.41
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft27th8288Fast early40.3 -0.2896.5+0.24
16 May 26Newmarket7fGood39th8390True40.6 +0.0099.0+0.00
9 May 26Haydock Park6f212yGood42nd8282True39.8 +0.9199.5+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26fast2f+0.30fast3f+0.32par4f+0.34par5f+0.42par6f+1.08very slow7f+1.24very slow
Timed runs 2026-05-09 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs BARRY'S BOY (IRE) (read through IT'SNEVERJUSTONE, ZARATHOS) ≈ +5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ENOLA GREY (IRE) (read through PERSUASION, HAVANA BLUE, GLENFINNAN, QUEST FOR FUN) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE) (read through BRAVO ZULU, WAR HOWL, I STILL HAVE FAITH, WARM SPELL) ≈ +3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FINAL NIGHT (read through I STILL HAVE FAITH, PAROLE D'ORO, WHERE'S FREDDY, COGITATE) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 3f out, headway when snatched up 2f out, no room soon after, eased”
#5 FINANCER MID
DRAW 10 · OR 78 · Amie Waugh / Tim Easterby
MARKET backed 21 → 15 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 3pts off the top, backed since the morning; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
6
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.42% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 29 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time blinkers · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 832ndClass 5 · 1m1f · rated 815thClass 4 · 7f176y · rated 785thClass 4 · 1m176y · rated 814thClass 3 · 1m1f176y · rated 81
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FINANCERbest 89needs 86–872025-04-17 · TFR 87 · 1m1f169y · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-16 · TFR 52 · 1m2f55y · Good · C2 · off-trip2025-05-29 · TFR 84 · 1m1f169y · Good · C32025-06-14 · TFR 84 · 1m3f187y · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-06-28 · TFR 85 · 1m2f55y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-07-11 · TFR 84 · 1m2f55y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-08-08 · TFR 79 · 1m4f9y · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-08-14 · TFR 86 · 1m2f · Firm · C2 · off-trip2025-08-30 · TFR 82 · 1m1f207y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-09-18 · TFR 84 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C2 · off-trip2025-10-11 · TFR 42 · 1m2f55y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-04-16 · TFR 79 · 1m1f169y · Gd/Sft · C42026-05-15 · TFR 78 · 1m2f55y · Good · C2 · off-trip2026-05-28 · TFR 81 · 1m1f169y · Good · C32026-06-13 · TFR 81 · 1m176y · Good · C42026-06-24 · TFR 78 · 7f174y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-04 · TFR 81 · 1m1f · Good · C52026-07-19 · TFR 83 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip17 Apr 2519 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark51/6747.6%0.6628/21313.1%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25
In fields of 16+1/1550.6%0.152/543.7%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Amie Waugh · at York: A/E 0 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 0.69 (n68)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 17
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 17
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 17
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 17
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jul 26Redcar1m2fGd/Frm41st73——39.8 -0.09107.9+0.00—
4 Jul 26Carlisle1m1fGood52nd7267—38.4 +0.0896.5+0.04—
24 Jun 26Carlisle7f173yGd/Frm45th7378.5True39.3 -0.0299.3+0.37
13 Jun 26York1m177yGood45th7579—39.9 +0.32102.5+0.12
28 May 26Ripon1m1f170yGood34th7688.5True39.5 +0.49104.7—
15 May 26York1m2f56yGood210th7990True38.1 -0.32103.7+0.14
Timed runs 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-19. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 9th, 1.8L ahead · OR 73 v 74 · race median 78
CANVAS · 1 meeting≈ 5.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 14th, 8.6L ahead · OR 73 v 80 · race median 78
ENOLA GREY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 6th, 0.5L ahead · OR 73 v 77 · race median 78
BARLEY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Sep 24 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 8th, 4.65L ahead · OR 81 v 82 · race median 89 · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
UP THE JAZZ (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
11 Jul 25 · 1m2f56y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 7th, 3L ahead · OR 82 v 73 · race median 79 · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs DRAUPNIR (read through FRANKIES DREAM, PEARL EYE, AUSTRIAN THEORY, MR LINCOLN) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PALADIN (IRE) (read through HALE END, DOUBLE PARKED, GARDEN OASIS, DEBORA'S DREAM) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BOWOOD (read through CAPITAL GUARANTEE, EMPIRE OF LIGHT, LEADENHALL, HALE END) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) (read through PRIAPOS, HOSTILITY, POET'S DAWN) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceRace-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
#6 DWINDLING FUNDS FRONT
DRAW 2 · OR 76 · Paul Mulrennan / Jim Goldie
MARKET backed 9.2 → 7.4 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 15 tries · beats market expectation (1.8)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 100.88% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 16 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 9lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 85 last run (AYR · 5 Jul 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 3 · 1m · rated 832ndClass 3 · 1m198y · rated 874thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 7712thClass 4 · 1m3f198y · rated 5011thClass 4 · 1m · rated 66
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DWINDLING FUNDSbest 87needs 86–872025-04-02 · TFR 27 · 1m · Good · C52025-04-28 · TFR 24 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-01 · TFR 61 · 6f · Good · C52025-05-21 · TFR 59 · 7f51y · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-21 · TFR 10 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-01 · TFR 55 · 1m4f103y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-07-17 · TFR 50 · 1m5f15y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip2025-07-28 · TFR 60 · 1m2f · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-08-02 · TFR 67 · 1m1f35y · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-11 · TFR 62 · 1m2f · Good · C6 · off-trip2025-08-18 · TFR 66 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-18 · TFR 73 · 7f51y · Gd/Sft · C62025-09-19 · TFR 65 · 1m · Soft · C52025-09-30 · TFR 73 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-09 · TFR 80 · 7f51y · Heavy · C52025-10-25 · TFR 68 · 7f · Heavy · C42025-11-05 · TFR 82 · 1m · Soft · C52026-04-12 · TFR 82 · 1m209y · Good · C32026-04-26 · TFR 66 · 1m · Good · C42026-05-13 · TFR 50 · 1m3f187y · Gd/Sft · C4 · off-trip2026-06-19 · TFR 77 · 1m2f · Soft · C4 · off-trip2026-06-30 · TFR 87 · 1m209y · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-05 · TFR 83 · 1m · Good · C32 Apr 255 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1477 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, in fields of 8-11, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15913.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/333.0%0.40/220.0%0.0
In fields of 16+8/6612.1%2.11/254.0%0.56
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.37/838.4%0.6
Above their last winning mark96/45321.2%1.4318/17110.5%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 3/25 · at York: A/E 1.04 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n738)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields14th of 17
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 17
-0.05s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 6 of 6
Finish · closing speed10th of 17
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 17
7.52 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr1mGood32nd7285True40.0 -0.25106.1-0.08
30 Jun 26Musselburgh1m208yGd/Frm32nd7688True39.1 +0.00103.0+0.00
19 Jun 26Ayr1m2fSoft44th7373.5Fast early37.4 -0.07100.0-0.16
13 May 26York1m3f188yGd/Sft412th7579True38.1 +0.6293.5-0.01
26 Apr 26Musselburgh1mGood411th7672True38.2 -0.81102.2+0.00
12 Apr 26Musselburgh1m208yGood32nd7687True38.7 +0.02100.5-0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledpar3fledpar4fledpar5fledslow6fledslow7fledfast1m+0.03fast
Timed runs 2026-04-12 to 2026-07-05. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
25 Oct 25 · 7f · Heavy — finished 6th vs 13th, 10.75L ahead · OR 73 v 82 · race median 75 (today 76)
MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Apr 26 · 1m · Good — finished 11th vs 8th, 1.35L behind · OR 76 v 80 · race median 72 (today 76)
BARLEY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Apr 26 · 1m · Good — finished 11th vs 13th, 4L ahead · OR 76 v 72 · race median 72 (today 76)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 3 rival(s) met (+1.2L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) (read through RAINBOW NEBULA, TERRIES ROYALE, WHO WANTS ME, PROSPERITAS) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BOWOOD (read through LEADENHALL, HALE END, FEEL THE NEED, YERMANTHERE) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANVAS (read through LEADENHALL, THEORYOFEVERYTHING, WALSINGHAM, FEEL THE NEED) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BARRY'S BOY (IRE) (read through NATIVE HONEY, FLYING FLETCHER, TACTICAL PLAN, OFF SPIN) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
10lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 66)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (15 tries, beats market expectation at 1.8)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.4 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, shaken up 3f out, upsides briefly, outpaced 2f out, not clear run approaching final 1f, forced to switch, kept on well final 1f, just failed”
#7 BARRY'S BOY (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 15 · OR 73 · Rob Hornby / Denis Coakley
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 6pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; concedes ~1.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.34)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.92% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 30 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 72 last run (WOLVERHAMPTON · 6 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 1m1f110y · rated 809thClass 5 · 1m · rated 615thClass 4 · 1m66y · rated 721stClass 5 · 1m · rated 782ndClass 5 · 1m132y · rated 76
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BARRY'S BOY (IRE)needs 86–87best 802025-05-03 · TFR 68 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-24 · TFR 76 · 1m31y · Good · C52025-06-13 · TFR 58 · 7f128y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-11 · TFR 2 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-25 · TFR 76 · 1m13y · Std/Slow · C52025-11-19 · TFR 76 · 1m · Std · C52025-12-15 · TFR 76 · 1m143y · Std · C52026-03-21 · TFR 78 · 1m · Std · C52026-05-09 · TFR 72 · 1m75y · Good · C42026-06-02 · TFR 61 · 1m · Std · C52026-07-06 · TFR 80 · 1m1f103y · Std · C53 May 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Denis Coakley · 223 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company6/1045.8%0.647/3818.4%1.73
Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/10411.5%0.924/2814.3%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)6/659.2%0.780/80.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips6/758.0%0.823/3010.0%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/10.0%0.0—
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 82 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Rob Hornby · last 14 days: 4/38 · at York: A/E 0 (n23) · with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields16th of 17
-0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 17
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 17
101.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length15th of 17
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd52nd7272Slow early39.8 +0.63106.4+0.10
2 Jun 26Newcastle1mStd59th7371True38.2 -0.4295.7—
9 May 26Nottingham1m75yGood45th7378True39.0 -0.0797.1+0.48
21 Mar 26Newcastle1mStd51st7070Slow early40.6 +0.30109.7-0.12
15 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m142yStd52nd7070True38.1 -0.14102.4+0.27
19 Nov 25Kempton Park1mStd54th6972Fast early38.7 -1.01100.3+0.39
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.05very fast2fledslow3fledvery slow4fledslow5fledslow6fledpar7fledfast1mledfast1m 1f+0.26par
Timed runs 2025-11-19 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Dec 25 · 1m142y · Std — finished 2nd vs 1st, 1.5L behind · OR 70 v 74 · race median 70 (today 76)
CANVAS · 1 meeting · n/a
3 May 25 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 6th, 1.2L ahead · OR 67 v 67 · race median 73 (today 76) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SON (read through IT'SNEVERJUSTONE, ZARATHOS) ≈ -5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) (read through WINSTON'S WARRIOR, HOSTELRY) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DRAUPNIR (read through ALPHA CAPTURE, LAW DEGREE, QUIET RESOLVE, FLYING FLETCHER) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FINAL NIGHT (read through PRINCIPALITY, HELM ROCK, PERFIDIA, ATMOSPHERE) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 80, 9pts above his recent average of 71.0Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.34)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, ridden over 2f out, dropped away”
#8 ENOLA GREY (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 75 · Kaiya Fraser / Gemma Tutty
MARKET drifting 13 → 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−
79.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 6.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
79.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 38 tries · in line with the market (1.04)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.25% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 4 · 7f · rated 786thClass 4 · 7f176y · rated 806thClass 2 · 7f · rated 805thClass 2 · 7f22y · rated 785thClass 4 · 1m · rated 76
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ENOLA GREY (IRE)best 87needs 86–872025-02-07 · TFR 81 · 1m13y · Std · C32025-02-15 · TFR 84 · 7f13y · Std · C42025-02-22 · TFR 53 · 7f13y · Std · C42025-03-04 · TFR 83 · 7f13y · Slow · C32025-03-15 · TFR 75 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-04-06 · TFR 77 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-09-16 · TFR 71 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-10-10 · TFR 47 · 7f · Good · C42025-11-04 · TFR 77 · 7f · Good · C52025-12-12 · TFR 66 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-12-15 · TFR 83 · 7f35y · Std · C52026-01-09 · TFR 76 · 1m · Std · C42026-01-16 · TFR 78 · 7f13y · Std · C22026-02-27 · TFR 80 · 7f · Std/Slow · C22026-06-24 · TFR 80 · 7f174y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-11 · TFR 78 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C47 Feb 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gemma Tutty · 514 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark11/1179.4%0.847/4415.9%1.53
In Class 4-5 company22/2289.6%0.99/7611.8%1.37
Over 7-8f trips23/2329.9%1.05/598.5%1.33
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 16+3/2611.5%2.710/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days4/676.0%0.551/175.9%0.59
At this time of year (Q3)14/13510.4%0.981/205.0%0.71
On turf23/21310.8%1.056/896.7%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)1/205.0%1.541/616.7%3.61
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Kaiya Fraser · last 14 days: 5/19 · at York: A/E 1.37 (n11) · with this yard: A/E 1.38 (n41)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields12th of 17
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph14th of 17
+0.32s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed8th of 17
102.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length10th of 17
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Ascot7fGd/Frm48th7675True40.8 +0.12101.6+0.09
24 Jun 26Carlisle7f173yGd/Frm46th7778.5True39.3 -0.0397.5+0.40
27 Feb 26Lingfield7fStd/Slow26th7878True40.6 +0.01106.2+0.24
16 Jan 26Newcastle7f14yStd25th7980True40.1 +0.18100.5+0.56
9 Jan 26Newcastle1mStd45th7975True40.6 -0.39105.9+0.43
15 Dec 25Wolverhampton7f36yStd51st7373True39.9 -0.06101.8+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.06slow2f+1.03par3f+0.94par4f+0.87par5f+0.79fast6f+0.59par7f+0.62slow
Timed runs 2025-12-15 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
CANVAS · 1 meeting≈ 8.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 14th, 8.1L ahead · OR 77 v 80 · race median 78 (today 76)
FINANCER · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 5th, 0.5L behind · OR 77 v 73 · race median 78 (today 76)
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 9th, 1.3L ahead · OR 77 v 74 · race median 78 (today 76)
CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
11 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 4th, 1.85L behind · OR 76 v 77 · race median 75 (today 76)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+3.3L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BARLEY (IRE) (read through DEGALE, LEADENHALL, YAASER, BILLYB) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SON (read through PERSUASION, HAVANA BLUE, GLENFINNAN, QUEST FOR FUN) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MONTEZIN (read through NORTH VIEW, HAVANA PRINCE, QUEST FOR FUN, NYMAN) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) (read through PRIAPOS, LAW DEGREE, DONNA NOOK, STRAIGHT A) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.37x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“held up, pushed along approaching home turn, ran on”
#9 FINAL NIGHT HELD-UP
DRAW 13 · OR 79 · Connor Beasley / John Butler
MARKET 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
77.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 8.3pts off the top, a yard in form; solid late gains (6th of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
77.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.88)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.61% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 15lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 91 last run (NEWMARKET · 9 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
10thClass 3 · 1m · rated 656thClass 2 · 1m110y · rated 843rdClass 4 · 1m · rated 842ndClass 3 · 1m · rated 846thClass 4 · 1m · rated 73
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FINAL NIGHTneeds 86–87best 862025-02-12 · TFR 64 · 1m · Slow · C52025-02-27 · TFR 37 · 1m · Slow · C52025-03-26 · TFR 59 · 7f · Std · C52025-05-05 · TFR 50 · 1m · Std · C52025-05-30 · TFR 52 · 7f37y · Good · C52025-07-19 · TFR 37 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2025-08-04 · TFR 66 · 1m31y · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-26 · TFR 58 · 1m · Std · C62025-09-18 · TFR 51 · 1m · Std · C52025-10-01 · TFR 71 · 1m · Std · C62025-10-15 · TFR 69 · 1m75y · Gd/Sft · C52025-12-01 · TFR 81 · 1m · Std · C52025-12-17 · TFR 82 · 1m · Std · C32026-02-06 · TFR 81 · 1m · Std · C42026-03-18 · TFR 86 · 1m · Slow · C52026-04-06 · TFR 73 · 1m · Slow · C42026-05-02 · TFR 84 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C32026-05-16 · TFR 84 · 1m · Good · C42026-06-05 · TFR 84 · 1m112y · Gd/Sft · C22026-07-09 · TFR 65 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C312 Feb 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 894 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: dropping in class, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/1829.3%1.038/2236.4%1.98
In Class 4-5 company18/3355.4%0.7727/12821.1%1.47
Above their last winning mark14/10813.0%0.9416/7720.8%1.34
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/3427.0%0.7723/12019.2%1.33
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/110.0%0.01/520.0%4.23
At York (small sample)2/1315.4%2.540/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Connor Beasley · last 14 days: 5/23 · at York: A/E 0.47 (n102) · with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n45)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 17
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 17
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 17
102.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 17
7.39 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm310th8091True39.5 +0.0097.8+0.14
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Sft26th8089Fast early40.3 +0.57105.8+0.64
16 May 26Newmarket1mGood43rd8081.5True40.0 -0.3298.1+0.17
2 May 26Newmarket1mGd/Frm32nd7986True39.3 +0.3099.9+0.08
6 Apr 26Kempton Park1mSlow46th7976True38.9 +0.04103.0+0.13
18 Mar 26Kempton Park1mSlow51st7572True40.7 +0.78111.1+0.53
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.90slow2f+0.77par3f+0.57par4f+0.66par5f+0.62par6f+0.57slow7f+0.77slow1m+2.00very slow
Timed runs 2026-03-18 to 2026-07-09. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
6 Feb 26 · 1m · Std — finished 3rd vs 5th, 1.75L ahead · OR 75 v 77 · race median 80 (today 76)
BOWOOD · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
6 Feb 26 · 1m · Std — finished 3rd vs 6th, 4.75L ahead · OR 75 v 78 · race median 80 (today 76)
CANVAS · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 3rd vs 4th, 0.75L ahead · OR 80 v 81 · race median 82 (today 76)
Read through a common rival
vs MONTEZIN (read through DINGLE, CALLIANASSA, JAZZY BABY) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) (read through PRIAPOS, KEATS HOUSE, PERFIDIA, RADICAL DESIGN) ≈ -4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) (read through KNIGHTS GOLD, GORGEOUS MR GEORGE, I STILL HAVE FAITH, ARANTES NASCIMENTO) ≈ +4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BARRY'S BOY (IRE) (read through PRINCIPALITY, HELM ROCK, PERFIDIA, ATMOSPHERE) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.88)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“behind, ridden under 3f out, held when hampered 1f out”
#10 MONTEZIN MID
DRAW 11 · OR 75 · Cam Hardie / Antony Brittain
MARKET drifting 14 → 27 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−
77 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 9pts off the top, fits the winner profile on recency; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
77 · ranked #10 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
75 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.86% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 11 places on the course scale (NEWCASTLE 13th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 4 · 1m · rated 734thClass 3 · 7f · rated 814thClass 4 · 7f · rated 7713thClass 3 · 6f · rated 611stClass 5 · 6f · rated 83
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MONTEZINneeds 86–87best 832025-10-06 · TFR 81 · 5f22y · Std · C5 · off-trip2025-10-27 · TFR 82 · 5f · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-11-24 · TFR 83 · 6f · Slow · C52026-04-17 · TFR 61 · 6f · Good · C32026-05-15 · TFR 77 · 7f · Good · C42026-06-06 · TFR 81 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-26 · TFR 73 · 1m · Slow · C46 Oct 2526 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Antony Brittain · 613 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+0/180.0%0.01/244.2%1.48
Over 7-8f trips3/1082.8%0.51/333.0%1.17
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1616.8%0.977/888.0%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York0/140.0%0.00/140.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)3/853.5%0.810/150.0%0.0
On turf0/1000.0%0.01/561.8%0.39
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Cam Hardie · last 14 days: 1/23 · at York: A/E 0.5 (n123) · with this yard: A/E 0.75 (n552)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 17
+0.25 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 17
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed16th of 17
97.9%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 17
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow48th7676True39.9 -0.3095.3—
6 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm34th7691True41.3 +0.2099.2+0.30
15 May 26York7fGood44th7678True40.4 +0.2594.6+0.16
17 Apr 26Newbury6fGood313th7887.5Fast early42.4 +0.7694.7+0.31
24 Nov 25Newcastle6fSlow51st——True41.0 +0.53101.8+0.06
27 Oct 25Newcastle5fSlow52nd——True41.0 +0.07101.7-0.04
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.61fast2f+0.56fast3f+0.55fast4f+0.45fast5f+0.52par6f+0.82very slow7f+1.00very slow1m+0.99very slow
Timed runs 2025-10-27 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BOWOOD · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
26 Jun 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 8th vs 7th, 0.3L behind · OR 76 v 76 · race median 76 (today 76)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FINAL NIGHT (read through DINGLE, CALLIANASSA, JAZZY BABY) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs UP THE JAZZ (IRE) (read through HIGHLAND OLLY, OBELIX) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANVAS (read through GALERON, OBELIX, INTRUSIVELY) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BARRY'S BOY (IRE) (read through INTRUSIVELY, ZARATHOS, CHUZZLEWIT) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden when bumped over 1f out, keeping on when edged left final 1f”
#11 BOWOOD HELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR 74 · Elle-May Croot / Ivan Furtado
MARKET drifting 75 → 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 9pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #11 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 35 tries · beats market expectation (1.1)
Days since last run
6
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.08% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 29 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 73 last run (REDCAR · 19 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 777thClass 4 · 1m · rated 745thClass 4 · 1m · rated 706thClass 4 · 1m · rated 705thClass 4 · 1m · rated 77
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BOWOODneeds 86–87best 862025-04-17 · TFR 52 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-19 · TFR 69 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-31 · TFR 58 · 7f · Firm · C42025-06-13 · TFR 62 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-28 · TFR 73 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-26 · TFR 63 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-16 · TFR 64 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-26 · TFR 65 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-09 · TFR 57 · 6f196y · Soft · C52025-09-27 · TFR 71 · 1m13y · Std · C62025-10-13 · TFR 61 · 1m · Std · C62025-10-27 · TFR 81 · 1m · Slow · C62025-11-07 · TFR 82 · 1m · Slow · C52025-11-21 · TFR 76 · 1m13y · Std · C42026-01-13 · TFR 77 · 1m · Slow · C42026-02-06 · TFR 70 · 1m · Std · C42026-06-05 · TFR 70 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-26 · TFR 74 · 1m · Slow · C42026-07-19 · TFR 77 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C517 Apr 2519 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 966 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company18/3225.6%0.8317/1819.4%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/260.0%0.00/130.0%0.0
At York (small sample)2/219.5%1.911/137.7%1.45
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)3/2711.1%0.85/1241.7%1.44
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Elle-May Croot · last 14 days: 2/5 · at York: A/E 0 (n4) · with this yard: A/E 1.27 (n247)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 17
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph17th of 17
+0.67s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 17
103.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 17
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jul 26Redcar1mGd/Frm53rd7473—40.0 +0.54105.6+0.33—
26 Jun 26Newcastle1mSlow47th7676True40.9 +0.7695.4—
5 Jun 26Doncaster7f213yGd/Frm45th7878True40.2 +0.00101.8+0.24
6 Feb 26Newcastle1mStd46th7880.5True40.3 +0.4898.9+1.54
13 Jan 26Newcastle1mSlow45th7873True39.4 +0.04114.5+0.82
21 Nov 25Southwell1m13yStd47th7878True39.5 +0.64102.3+0.40
Timed runs 2025-11-21 to 2026-07-19. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 4 meetings≈ 1.0L behind on today's terms · reverses
19 Jul 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 1st, 4.75L behind · OR 74 v 71 · race median 73 (today 76)
FINAL NIGHT · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
6 Feb 26 · 1m · Std — finished 6th vs 3rd, 4.75L behind · OR 78 v 75 · race median 80 (today 76)
BARLEY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 13.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Aug 25 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 2nd, 5.1L behind · OR 70 v 81 · race median 80 (today 76)
MONTEZIN · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
26 Jun 26 · 1m · Slow — finished 7th vs 8th, 0.3L ahead · OR 76 v 76 · race median 76 (today 76)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (-3.3L adj, 6 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs UP THE JAZZ (IRE) (read through SUPER HIT, CAPITAL GUARANTEE, COSMOS RAJ, VOLENTI) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FINANCER (read through CAPITAL GUARANTEE, EMPIRE OF LIGHT, LEADENHALL, HALE END) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DWINDLING FUNDS (read through LEADENHALL, HALE END, FEEL THE NEED, YERMANTHERE) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) (read through DARING LEGEND, BELLA BISBEE, RACINGBREAKS RYDER, DRIFTS AWAY) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (74 today vs 69)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayStable in form this week — 2 wins from 14 runsRace-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“steadied start, off pace, headway 3f out, challenged 2f out, no further impression”
#12 UP THE JAZZ (IRE) MID
DRAW 12 · OR 70 · Warren Fentiman / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET drifting 30 → 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 9pts off the top, in form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
1 win from 11 tries · below market expectation (0.67)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.38% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (RIPON 14th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 10lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 66 last run (RIPON · 6 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 1m · rated 771stClass 6 · 1m · rated 746thClass 5 · 1m · rated 573rdClass 6 · 1m44y · rated 702ndClass 5 · 1m · rated 72
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for UP THE JAZZ (IRE)needs 86–87best 772025-03-29 · TFR 70 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C4 · off-trip2025-06-14 · TFR 73 · 1m176y · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-05 · TFR 76 · 1m1f207y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-11 · TFR 69 · 1m2f55y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-07-27 · TFR 75 · 1m2f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-07-31 · TFR 69 · 1m1f103y · Std · C32025-09-04 · TFR 73 · 1m2f42y · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-10-14 · TFR 70 · 1m2f42y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-02-14 · TFR 58 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2026-03-20 · TFR 68 · 1m143y · Std · C52026-03-28 · TFR 59 · 1m2f44y · Gd/Sft · C5 · off-trip2026-04-25 · TFR 72 · 1m · Good · C52026-05-09 · TFR 70 · 1m53y · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-18 · TFR 57 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-22 · TFR 74 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-06 · TFR 77 · 1m · Good · C529 Mar 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+—4/478.5%2.11
At York—4/478.5%1.69
Above their last winning mark—18/12714.2%1.47
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Warren Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/12 · at York: A/E 1.62 (n49) · with this yard: A/E 1.47 (n55)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 17
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 17
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed13th of 17
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length16th of 17
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon1mGood52nd6766True39.1 +0.30101.0—
22 Jun 26Musselburgh1mGd/Frm61st6459Slow early38.6 -0.07103.7-0.23
18 May 26Redcar1mGd/Frm56th6563True40.5 -0.1293.6+0.11
9 May 26Leicester1m53yGd/Frm63rd6562True38.4 +0.11102.2+0.44
25 Apr 26Ripon1mGood52nd6366True40.2 -0.1198.8+0.28
28 Mar 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Sft59th6565Fast early35.5 -0.1997.1+0.02
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.59par2f+0.75par3f+0.48par4f+0.34par5f+0.21par6f+0.25par7f+0.21par1m+0.15par
Timed runs 2026-03-28 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 May 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 1st, 6.25L behind · OR 65 v 62 · race median 63 (today 76)
FINANCER · 1 meeting · n/a
11 Jul 25 · 1m2f56y · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 5th, 3L behind · OR 73 v 82 · race median 79 (today 76) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BOWOOD (read through SUPER HIT, CAPITAL GUARANTEE, COSMOS RAJ, VOLENTI) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MONTEZIN (read through HIGHLAND OLLY, OBELIX) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PALADIN (IRE) (read through URBAN ROAD, THEME PARK, ELECTRIC AVENUE, GARDEN OASIS) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BARLEY (IRE) (read through YOKKELL, POET'S DAWN, CAPITAL GUARANTEE, COSMOS RAJ) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 64)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.62x market expectation)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.25 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“in touch, headway when switched under 3f out, ridden when led 2f out, tackled final 100 yds, just held on”
#13 KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) MID
DRAW 9 · OR 65 · Rowan Scott / Roger Fell
MARKET drifting 21 → 38 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 11pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #13 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.79)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s)
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.66% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 12lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 64 last run (DONCASTER · 9 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 1m · rated 759thClass 5 · 1m · rated 591stClass 5 · 1m · rated 712ndClass 5 · 1m · rated 675thClass 5 · 1m · rated 60
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE)needs 86–87best 752025-04-01 · TFR 48 · 6f20y · Slow · C52025-05-04 · TFR 69 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-02 · TFR 65 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-26 · TFR 72 · 6f18y · Good · C52025-08-02 · TFR 36 · 6f · Good · C62025-08-19 · TFR 60 · 7f35y · Std · C52025-09-02 · TFR 61 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-09-23 · TFR 69 · 1m99y · Gd/Sft · C62025-10-15 · TFR 59 · 1m75y · Gd/Sft · C52026-03-20 · TFR 54 · 1m143y · Std · C52026-04-05 · TFR 64 · 1m13y · Std · C42026-04-25 · TFR 60 · 1m · Good · C52026-05-02 · TFR 67 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-18 · TFR 71 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-03 · TFR 59 · 1m · Good · C52026-07-09 · TFR 75 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C61 Apr 259 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Roger Fell · 375 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 16+0/190.0%0.01/147.1%1.33
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York0/140.0%0.00/160.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)6/797.6%0.751/283.6%0.3
Over 7-8f trips15/12212.3%1.368/958.4%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Rowan Scott · last 14 days: 2/15 · at York: A/E 1.19 (n77) · with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n44)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields11th of 17
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 17
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed12th of 17
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length14th of 17
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Doncaster7f213yGd/Frm63rd6564True40.3 +0.00103.0+0.18
3 Jun 26Ripon1mGood59th6566True39.6 +0.1197.1—
18 May 26Redcar1mGd/Frm51st6263True40.3 -0.3396.0+0.00
2 May 26Thirsk1mGd/Frm52nd6164True39.2 +0.00102.9+0.03
25 Apr 26Ripon1mGood55th6266True40.4 +0.0497.6+0.51
5 Apr 26Southwell1m13yStd44th6277True38.8 +0.09101.4+0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.07par2f+0.06par3f+0.14slow4f+0.12slow5f+0.10fast6f+0.06fast7f+0.03fast1m+0.12par
Timed runs 2026-04-05 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
UP THE JAZZ (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
18 May 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 6th, 6.25L ahead · OR 62 v 65 · race median 63 (today 76)
BARLEY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
3 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 9th vs 3rd, 5.15L behind · OR 65 v 66 · race median 66 (today 76)
Read through a common rival
vs FINAL NIGHT (read through PRIAPOS, KEATS HOUSE, PERFIDIA, RADICAL DESIGN) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANVAS (read through PRIAPOS, EEETEE, PEARLY SQUIRREL, HOMELAND) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FINANCER (read through PRIAPOS, HOSTILITY, POET'S DAWN) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ENOLA GREY (IRE) (read through PRIAPOS, LAW DEGREE, DONNA NOOK, STRAIGHT A) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.79)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led early, stayed prominent after 1f, effort 2f out, kept on”
#14 CANVAS FRONT
DRAW 3 · OR 78 · Christian Howarth / Scott Dixon
MARKET backed 22 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
73.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
14th on the figures, 12.7pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
73.3 · ranked #14 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (2.46)
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 97.75% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 23 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
14thClass 4 · 7f176y · rated 634thClass 4 · 1m · rated 8310thClass 3 · 1m · rated 747thClass 2 · 1m2f66y · rated 811stClass 4 · 7f198y · rated 90
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CANVASbest 90needs 86–872025-04-02 · TFR 59 · 1m13y · Std · C52025-04-17 · TFR 63 · 1m · Good · C42025-05-03 · TFR 65 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-17 · TFR 77 · 7f213y · Firm · C62025-06-29 · TFR 69 · 1m · Soft · C52025-07-10 · TFR 82 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-19 · TFR 90 · 1m2f42y · Gd/Frm · C5 · off-trip2025-07-31 · TFR 85 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C32025-08-09 · TFR 73 · 1m3f211y · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-09-07 · TFR 90 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C42025-10-10 · TFR 81 · 1m2f55y · Good · C2 · off-trip2025-10-25 · TFR 74 · 1m · Heavy · C32026-05-16 · TFR 83 · 1m · Good · C42026-06-24 · TFR 63 · 7f174y · Gd/Frm · C42 Apr 2524 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Scott Dixon · 1057 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company ✦20/2687.5%1.0914/12011.7%1.39
Over 7-8f trips ✦34/4407.7%1.039/1128.0%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark10/9610.4%1.431/482.1%0.37
Coming back after 15 to 45 days19/2826.7%1.053/953.2%0.51
On turf24/20411.8%1.175/875.7%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)1/119.1%3.66—
In fields of 16+ (small sample)1/1010.0%4.110/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Christian Howarth · last 14 days: 1/6 · at York: A/E 0 (n5) · with this yard: A/E 1.83 (n29)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields15th of 17
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 17
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed17th of 17
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 17
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
24 Jun 26Carlisle7f173yGd/Frm414th8078.5True39.3 +0.0293.6+0.32
16 May 26Newmarket1mGood44th8181.5True40.3 -0.0297.5-0.08
25 Oct 25Doncaster1mHeavy310th8286.5True36.8 -0.1393.4-0.18
10 Oct 25York1m2f56yGood27th8285.5True38.1 -0.71100.5+0.24
7 Sep 25York7f192yGd/Frm41st8080.5Fast early39.3 -0.3698.6-0.10
9 Aug 25Ascot1m3f211yGd/Frm37th8080True38.0 +0.54103.0+0.61
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledfast3fledfast4fledslow5fledslow6f+0.05very slow7f+0.74very slow1m+2.02very slow
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-06-24. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 3.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 14th vs 9th, 6.8L behind · OR 80 v 74 · race median 78 (today 76)
FINANCER · 1 meeting≈ 5.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 14th vs 5th, 8.6L behind · OR 80 v 73 · race median 78 (today 76)
ENOLA GREY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
24 Jun 26 · 7f173y · Gd/Frm — finished 14th vs 6th, 8.1L behind · OR 80 v 77 · race median 78 (today 76)
BARLEY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
7 Sep 25 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 4th, 1.35L ahead · OR 80 v 83 · race median 80 (today 76)
BARRY'S BOY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
3 May 25 · 7f213y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 4th, 1.2L behind · OR 67 v 67 · race median 73 (today 76) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
FINAL NIGHT · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.75L behind · OR 81 v 80 · race median 82 (today 76)
Read through a common rival
vs CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) (read through KNIGHTS GOLD, GORGEOUS MR GEORGE, ONEMORENOMORE) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) (read through PRIAPOS, EEETEE, PEARLY SQUIRREL, HOMELAND) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MONTEZIN (read through GALERON, OBELIX, INTRUSIVELY) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DWINDLING FUNDS (read through LEADENHALL, THEORYOFEVERYTHING, WALSINGHAM, FEEL THE NEED) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (78 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 2.46)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led overall, headed over 1f out, wandered, faded late on”
#15 BARLEY (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 17 · OR 68 · Duran Fentiman / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 19 → 29 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
72.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
15th on the figures, 13.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
72.3 · ranked #15 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
1 win from 34 tries · below market expectation (0.29)
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.2% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (THIRSK 12th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 70 last run (THIRSK · 16 Jul 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 723rdClass 4 · 7f176y · rated 682ndClass 4 · 7f176y · rated 773rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 722ndClass 5 · 1m66y · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BARLEY (IRE)best 90needs 86–872025-04-07 · TFR 80 · 1m · Good · C32025-04-21 · TFR 82 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C32025-05-17 · TFR 86 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-25 · TFR 65 · 7f174y · Soft · C42025-06-28 · TFR 89 · 7f191y · Good · C32025-07-19 · TFR 83 · 1m · Soft · C42025-08-02 · TFR 79 · 1m · Good · C22025-08-07 · TFR 74 · 1m13y · Good · C42025-08-16 · TFR 87 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C42025-08-25 · TFR 89 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-07 · TFR 90 · 7f191y · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-20 · TFR 77 · 1m · Soft · C22025-09-28 · TFR 72 · 1m · Slow · C42025-10-04 · TFR 70 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C22025-10-27 · TFR 59 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C32026-04-16 · TFR 47 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C42026-04-26 · TFR 52 · 1m · Good · C42026-05-16 · TFR 71 · 1m · Good · C52026-05-27 · TFR 74 · 1m68y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-03 · TFR 72 · 1m · Good · C52026-06-24 · TFR 77 · 7f174y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-04 · TFR 68 · 7f174y · Good · C42026-07-16 · TFR 72 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C57 Apr 2516 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25
In fields of 16+1/1550.6%0.152/543.7%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Duran Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/14 · at York: A/E 0.57 (n58) · with this yard: A/E 0.86 (n755)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields13th of 17
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 17
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 17
104.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length9th of 17
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Thirsk1mGd/Frm53rd6870True40.4 -0.09107.8+0.03
4 Jul 26Carlisle7f173yGood43rd6975—38.5 +0.05100.9+0.13—
24 Jun 26Carlisle7f173yGd/Frm42nd6870.5True38.4 +0.1699.6+0.48
3 Jun 26Ripon1mGood53rd6666True39.0 -0.4799.9—
27 May 26Hamilton Park1m68yGd/Frm52nd6666Slow early40.0 -0.18112.4+0.09
16 May 26Thirsk1mGood56th6972.5True40.0 +0.17104.6+0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.59very slow2f+0.59very slow3f+0.49par4f+0.24par5f+0.40fast6f+0.21fast7f+0.23fast1m+0.35fast
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
RAJAPOUR (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 0.0L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
16 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 6th vs 3rd, 2.65L behind · OR 69 v 73 · race median 72 (today 76)
MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Apr 26 · 1m · Good — finished 13th vs 8th, 5.35L behind · OR 72 v 80 · race median 72 (today 76)
CANVAS · 1 meeting≈ 5.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
7 Sep 25 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 1st, 1.35L behind · OR 83 v 80 · race median 80 (today 76)
BOWOOD · 1 meeting≈ 13.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 Aug 25 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 7th, 5.1L ahead · OR 81 v 70 · race median 80 (today 76)
PALADIN (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Jul 25 · 1m · Soft — finished 2nd vs 6th, 13.2L ahead · OR 83 v 73 · race median 80 (today 76) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
FINANCER · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Sep 24 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 1st, 4.65L behind · OR 82 v 81 · race median 89 (today 76) · stale — 22m ago, not in the read
DWINDLING FUNDS · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Apr 26 · 1m · Good — finished 13th vs 11th, 4L behind · OR 72 v 76 · race median 72 (today 76)
KISS ME MY LOVE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
3 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 3rd vs 9th, 5.15L ahead · OR 66 v 65 · race median 66 (today 76)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 6 rival(s) met (+1.6L adj, 8 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ENOLA GREY (IRE) (read through DEGALE, LEADENHALL, YAASER, BILLYB) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs UP THE JAZZ (IRE) (read through YOKKELL, POET'S DAWN, CAPITAL GUARANTEE, COSMOS RAJ) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs BARRY'S BOY (IRE) (read through DEGALE, PERFIDIA, NATIVE HONEY, FLYING FLETCHER) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DRAUPNIR (read through FLYING FLETCHER, SANAFI ZABEEL, AUSTRIAN THEORY, QUIET RESOLVE) ≈ -1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (68 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRace-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Held-Up) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway 2f out, ridden 1f out, kept on”
#16 MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE) MID
DRAW 4 · OR 76 · Kieran Shoemark / John Butler
MARKET backed 22 → 18 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
16th on the figures, 15pts off the top, a yard in form; solid late gains (4th of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #16 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 76
Record at today's distance
1 win from 21 tries · below market expectation (0.45)
Days since last run
36
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s)
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.86% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 4 · 7f · rated 717thClass 4 · 7f · rated 668thClass 4 · 1m · rated 733rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 857thClass 4 · 1m · rated 69
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE)best 89needs 86–872025-03-30 · TFR 55 · 7f · Good · C42025-05-17 · TFR 76 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C32025-06-04 · TFR 89 · 1m75y · Gd/Sft · C42025-06-28 · TFR 87 · 7f191y · Good · C32025-07-26 · TFR 75 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-14 · TFR 89 · 1m · Slow · C42025-10-16 · TFR 89 · 1m13y · Std · C42025-11-01 · TFR 66 · 1m · Good · C32025-12-03 · TFR 86 · 1m · Std · C42026-02-20 · TFR 77 · 7f13y · Std/Slow · C42026-03-12 · TFR 69 · 1m · Std · C42026-04-03 · TFR 85 · 7f · Std · C42026-04-26 · TFR 73 · 1m · Good · C42026-06-04 · TFR 66 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-19 · TFR 71 · 7f · Good · C430 Mar 2519 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 894 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: dropping in class, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/1829.3%1.038/2236.4%1.98
In Class 4-5 company18/3355.4%0.7727/12821.1%1.47
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/3427.0%0.7723/12019.2%1.33
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)0/110.0%0.01/520.0%4.23
At York (small sample)2/1315.4%2.540/30.0%0.0
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)1/911.1%0.680/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 5/36 · at York: A/E 1.1 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields17th of 17
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 17
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 17
102.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length17th of 17
6.99 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Newmarket7fGood49th7876.5True40.2 -0.0798.3+0.03
4 Jun 26Wetherby7fGd/Frm47th7976Fast early41.1 +0.14103.3+0.05
26 Apr 26Musselburgh1mGood48th8072True39.4 +0.31102.2+0.29
3 Apr 26Lingfield7fStd43rd7972.5True40.5 +0.00103.7+0.02
12 Mar 26Chelmsford City1mStd47th8176True38.3 -0.98103.6+0.29
20 Feb 26Southwell7f14yStd/Slow410th8282Slow early40.1 -0.20106.1+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.18fast2f+0.16par3f+0.21par4f+0.32slow5f+0.30par6f+0.57slow7f+0.91slow
Timed runs 2026-02-20 to 2026-06-19. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
BARLEY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 5.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Apr 26 · 1m · Good — finished 8th vs 13th, 5.35L ahead · OR 80 v 72 · race median 72 (today 76)
DWINDLING FUNDS · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Apr 26 · 1m · Good — finished 8th vs 11th, 1.35L ahead · OR 80 v 76 · race median 72 (today 76)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+4.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SON (read through BRAVO ZULU, WAR HOWL, I STILL HAVE FAITH, WARM SPELL) ≈ -3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CANCAN IN THE RAIN (IRE) (read through LADY MARIKO, STENMARK, DARING LEGEND, NORTH VIEW) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MONTEZIN (read through WAR HOWL, OBELIX, ORNE, STRATOCRACY) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs RAJAPOUR (IRE) (read through WAR HOWL, WOODSTOCK, GREAT BLASKET, STENMARK) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-15 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-field, weakened over 1f out”
#17 DRAUPNIR MID
DRAW 16 · OR 72 · Joanna Mason / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET backed 42 → 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
70.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
17th on the figures, 15.3pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
70.7 · ranked #17 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.34)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.73% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 80 last run (YORK · 27 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 4 · 1m5f198y · rated 573rdClass 4 · 1m1f44y · rated 815thClass 4 · 1m1f44y · rated 743rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 817thClass 5 · 7f · rated 52
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DRAUPNIRneeds 86–87best 812025-06-06 · TFR 65 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-24 · TFR 73 · 1m99y · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-19 · TFR 62 · 1m1f169y · Soft · C42025-08-29 · TFR 74 · 1m · Soft · C52025-09-15 · TFR 79 · 7f · Soft · C52025-10-01 · TFR 52 · 7f · Soft · C52026-04-18 · TFR 81 · 7f · Good · C42026-05-15 · TFR 74 · 1m1f35y · Good · C42026-06-04 · TFR 81 · 1m1f35y · Good · C42026-06-27 · TFR 57 · 1m5f187y · Good · C4 · off-trip6 Jun 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1245 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/531.9%0.380/240.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/5287.6%0.8210/1626.2%0.71
Over 7-8f trips ✦24/3227.5%0.829/1237.3%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 16+ (small sample)2/523.8%0.851/175.9%1.16
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 81 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Joanna Mason · last 14 days: 3/28 · at York: A/E 1.15 (n79) · with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n608)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 17
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 17
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 17
102.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length11th of 17
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York1m5f188yGood47th7280True38.6 -0.55105.0+0.01
4 Jun 26Hamilton Park1m1f35yGood43rd7274True38.2 -0.44105.1-0.25
15 May 26Hamilton Park1m1f35yGood45th7274True40.3 +0.42101.4+0.49
18 Apr 26Thirsk7fGood43rd7281True40.4 +0.12103.9+0.60
15 Sep 25Thirsk7fSoft51st6767True38.5 +0.31101.8+0.01
19 Jul 25Ripon1m1f170ySoft48th7076True37.6 +0.4799.3+0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.75slow2f+1.09very slow3f+1.23slow4f+1.30slow5f+0.91par6f+1.00very slow7f+1.13slow1m+1.27slow1m 1f+1.07par1m 2f+0.94fast1m 3f+0.98fast1m 4f+1.73slow1m 5f+2.32par1m 6f+3.39slow
Timed runs 2025-07-19 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs BARRY'S BOY (IRE) (read through ALPHA CAPTURE, LAW DEGREE, QUIET RESOLVE, FLYING FLETCHER) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs PALADIN (IRE) (read through QUEST FOR FUN, LEADMAN, TELE RED) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs FINANCER (read through FRANKIES DREAM, PEARL EYE, AUSTRIAN THEORY, MR LINCOLN) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MADAME DE SEVIGNE (IRE) (read through FLYING FLETCHER, WOODSTOCK, LEADMAN, QUIET RESOLVE) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 67)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.34)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“prominent, upsides around 2f out, pushed along soon after, edged ahead over 1f out, hung left, headed final ½f”