BUILT 12:52 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Good in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 1-3
33
33.3%
57.6%
42.4%
60.6%
sprints (5-7f)
113
26.5%
55.8%
28.3%
58.4%
non-handicaps
65
35.4%
55.4%
35.4%
63.1%
small fields (<=7)
136
33.8%
66.2%
35.3%
70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (72% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (61% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 6th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 51% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, HOUT BAY (IRE) leads on 78, 3pts clear of DESERT SMOKE — the quickest away of the early types. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is DESERT SMOKE — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making DESERT SMOKE the 34% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
HOUT BAY (IRE)
OR · Rossa Ryan / Stuart Williams
MARKET 3.75 · the market rates it a 26% chance
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−The top rating in this field (78.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
DESERT SMOKE
OR · James Doyle / Hugo Palmer
MARKET backed 3.3 → 2.94 · the market rates it a 34% chance
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (75.0)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
BEAR LEE (IRE)
OR · Joanna Mason / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET drifting 8.4 → 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (73.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1HOUT BAY (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, runs the dominant winning style here, fits the winner profile on recency
2DESERT SMOKEnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency
3BEAR LEE (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. DESERT SMOKE is the one to beat it — an edge HOUT BAY (IRE) lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 33% · prominent racers 28% (86 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, flat, galloping 5f run-in; most horses get a clear run finish. Draw: Generally fair on the wide round course, but a real bias exists in big-field sprint handicaps (5f-6f): on good, low/inside edge in big fields. soft often flips the advantage to the far (high) side. Winners’ energy signature: 50.61% spent early (band 49.91–51.07%, 71 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~6 at halfway, 0.28s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
18 similar races at YORK, 5.5-6.5f, 2yo non-handicaps, Class 2-4, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (72% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (61% from the first three favourites). 22% won last time out, 17% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
56% 15-45d
22% first run
17% within 14d
Market
39% 4th+ in the market
33% favourite
17% 2nd favourite
LTO form
39% unplaced last time
22% won last time
22% first run
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: HOUT BAY (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · DESERT SMOKE is 0/1 on softer ground · BEAR LEE (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
BEAR LEE (IRE)HELD-UP49.3%103.5a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
DESERT SMOKEHELD-UP48.1%105.2the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
GLADYS PUGH (IRE)HELD-UP50.6%98.4held up without the late gear (5th of 5 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
HOUT BAY (IRE)PROMINENT48.3%104.6the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and finds plenty late
NOUR (IRE)FRONT50.2%102.2a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
ROGUE JEWEL (IRE)———-
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
HOUT BAY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.23s off the best)
NOUR (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1HOUT BAY (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR · Rossa Ryan / Stuart Williams
MARKET 3.75 · the market rates it a 26% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 104.6% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 3 · 6f · rated 78
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 973 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦30/16418.3%1.0912/6119.7%1.34
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company14/14010.0%1.213/555.5%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)2/1020.0%1.990/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 14/61· at York: A/E 1.11 (n124)· with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n102)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.11slow2f+0.23very slow3f+0.28slow4f+0.17par5f+0.17fast6f+0.18very fast
Timed runs 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-10. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
The top rating in this field (78.0)Only 1 run at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, effort when badly hampered 1f out, rallied final ½f, ran on”
#2DESERT SMOKEHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR · James Doyle / Hugo Palmer
MARKET backed 3.3 → 2.94 · the market rates it a 34% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, backed since the morning; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.18% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 3 · 6f · rated 75
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦42/26915.6%1.1915/9515.8%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.24/517.8%0.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0513/12510.4%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)2/296.9%1.390/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
James Doyle · last 14 days: 2/14· at York: A/E 1.07 (n57)· with this yard: A/E 0.7 (n44)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.77s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
105.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.60very slow2f+0.66very slow3f+0.55par4f+0.38par5f+0.27fast6f+0.30very fast
Timed runs 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-10. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
HOUT BAY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Rated #2 in this field (75.0)Only 1 run at this distanceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, held up, shaken up over 2f out, kept on final 1f, nearest finish”
#3BEAR LEE (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 6 · OR · Joanna Mason / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET drifting 8.4 → 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, in form; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (7.91)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.5% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 15 places on the course scale (MUSSELBURGH 17th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1245 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/531.9%0.380/240.0%0.0
In fields of <=7 ✦17/15910.7%0.684/537.5%0.67
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 73 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Joanna Mason · last 14 days: 3/28· at York: A/E 1.15 (n79)· with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n608)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.78 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.77s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.70 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGd/Frm41st——True—104.8—
20 Jun 26Redcar5f217yGood54th——True41.2 +0.78102.2+0.77
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-20 to 2026-06-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRated #3 in this field (73.0)Improving fast — last run rated 73, 12pts above his recent average of 61.0Only 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, held up, switched over 1f out, quickened to lead final 1f, readily”
#4NOUR (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 3 · OR · Clifford Lee / K. R. Burke
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 11pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
Timed runs 2026-05-26 to 2026-05-26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Only 1 run at this distanceRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, challenged 2f out, edged right final 1f, not quicken”
#5GLADYS PUGH (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR · Kevin Stott / Kevin Ryan
MARKET drifting 17 → 27 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
57.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 21pts off the top, dropping in class; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 57
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.4% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 2 · 6f · rated 57
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Ryan · 1212 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At York7/1305.4%0.783/339.1%1.78
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=729/16517.6%1.054/626.5%0.38
At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/395.1%0.54
In Class 1-3 company35/4008.8%1.018/1256.4%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 58 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Kevin Stott · last 14 days: 3/24· at York: A/E 0.37 (n55)· with this yard: A/E 0.71 (n189)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.34 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.9 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.61s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
98.4%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 5
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Drops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distance
LTO comment
“missed break, off pace, progress around 2f out, no further impression”
#6ROGUE JEWEL (IRE)
DRAW 2 · OR · Daniel Tudhope / Edward Bethell
MARKET drifting 9.2 → 14 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
A yard that scores in today’s conditions; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Edward Bethell · 863 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips28/19514.4%0.869/5416.7%1.3
At this time of year (Q3)39/25315.4%0.959/4619.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦31/15420.1%0.8311/8313.3%0.66
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)3/417.3%0.730/120.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 4/35· at York: A/E 0.88 (n193)· with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n27)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure