FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
York · 16:17
Class 3 · 1m3f187y · Good to Firm (Good in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 87.5
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 10 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:53 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Good in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 1-33333.3%57.6%42.4%60.6%
middle (9-12f)4141.5%70.7%39%70.7%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
mid fields (8-11)6921.7%46.4%20.3%46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (68% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (50% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 5th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, TYCOON leads on 102, 4pts clear of LIKEALOT — the quickest away of the early types. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is THERAPIST — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making LIKEALOT the 18% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 4
TYCOON
OR 94 · Toby Moore / Kevin Philippart de Foy
MARKET drifting 4.7 → 5.9 · the market rates it a 17% chance
102.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Drops in class todayThe top rating in this field (102.0)Jockey goes well at this track (4.06x market expectation)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
LIKEALOT
OR 92 · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET backed 6.2 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
98.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (98.0)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 10
ASHNAK (FR)
OR 89 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
96.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (96.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1TYCOONnet +10figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, quickest early type, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup
2LIKEALOTnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, yard hot, fits the winner profile on recency − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3THE GLEN ROVERSnet +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. LIKEALOT is the one to beat it — an edge TYCOON lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 35% · midfield runners 28% (258 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, flat, galloping 5f run-in; most horses get a clear run finish. Winners’ energy signature: 49.64% spent early (band 49.05–49.99%, 24 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~5 at halfway, 0.79s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
22 similar races at YORK, 11.3-12.3f, all-aged handicaps, Class 2-4, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (68% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (50% from the first three favourites). 18% won last time out, 32% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
45% 4yo
27% 5yo
23% 6yo+
Last ran
45% 15-45d
23% within 14d
18% 46-90d
Market
50% 4th+ in the market
45% favourite
5% 2nd favourite
LTO form
50% unplaced last time
32% placed last time
18% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–10
12345678910
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–10).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: TYCOON is unraced on softer ground · LIKEALOT is 0/1 on softer ground · ASHNAK (FR) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
TYCOON PROMINENT 49.8% 103.7 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
LIKEALOT PROMINENT 49.1% 102.2 a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
THE GLEN ROVERS MID 47.5% 107.3 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
ASHNAK (FR) MID 47.6% 107.9 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
WAHDAN (IRE) HELD-UP 49.3% 101.6 solid late gains (9th of 10 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CALIBAN (IRE) MID 48.9% 103.2 a genuine turn of foot — 7th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
CHILLINGHAM (IRE) MID 50.6% 100.5 solid late gains (10th of 10 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) HELD-UP 48.4% 108.2 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
THERAPIST MID 47.2% 110.8 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) HELD-UP 47.6% 108.5 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
TYCOONPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.14s off the field’s best
LIKEALOTPROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 TYCOON PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 94 · Toby Moore / Kevin Philippart de Foy
MARKET drifting 4.7 → 5.9 · the market rates it a 17% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
102.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
102.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 103
Official mark (OR)
94 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.65% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 87.5 vs 95 last run (ASCOT · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 2 · 1m4f · rated 10213thClass 2 · 1m2f22y · rated 743rdClass 2 · 1m1f · rated 1035thClass 2 · 1m · rated 957thClass 3 · 1m2f · rated 88
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TYCOONbest 103needs 99–1032025-04-28 · TFR 79 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-24 · TFR 97 · 1m3f44y · Good · C12025-06-21 · TFR 96 · 1m1f211y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-07 · TFR 99 · 1m2f55y · Gd/Frm · C32025-11-27 · TFR 88 · 1m2f · Slow · C32026-04-14 · TFR 95 · 1m · Good · C2 · off-trip2026-05-02 · TFR 103 · 1m1f · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2026-06-05 · TFR 74 · 1m2f18y · Gd/Sft · C22026-07-11 · TFR 102 · 1m3f211y · Gd/Frm · C228 Apr 2511 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Philippart de Foy · 656 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 11f+ trips6/659.2%0.845/1631.2%1.93
Coming back after 8 to 14 days4/4010.0%0.713/1717.6%1.5
At this time of year (Q3)17/1849.2%0.765/1926.3%1.3
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company10/1039.7%1.247/729.7%0.79
In fields of 8-11 ✦25/2549.8%0.838/6312.7%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)0/110.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 104 at/around today's trip, clears the ~99.0 demand
The rider
Toby Moore · last 14 days: 0/3 · at York: A/E 4.06 (n1) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 10
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 10
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 10
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 10
7.39 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26Ascot1m3f211yGd/Frm23rd9495Slow early39.9 +0.01109.1+0.00
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs1m2f17yGd/Sft213th9498.5Fast early38.4 -0.17102.5+0.10
2 May 26Newmarket1m1fGd/Frm23rd9498True38.9 -0.28102.0+0.05
14 Apr 26Newmarket1mGood25th9491.5True38.4 -0.39100.1+0.09
27 Nov 25Chelmsford City1m2fSlow37th9588True38.5 +0.0999.6+0.55
7 Sep 25York1m2f56yGd/Frm36th9690True40.5 -0.62108.6+0.05
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledvery slow3fledslow4fledfast5fledpar6fledslow7fledvery slow1mledvery slow1m 1fledslow1m 2f+0.05very fast1m 3f+0.29very fast1m 4f+0.28very fast
Timed runs 2025-09-07 to 2026-07-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs ASHNAK (FR) (read through SPOKEN TRUTH, HAVE SECRET, PER CONTRA) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WAHDAN (IRE) (read through KING'S CODE, ASTRO KING, LET'S DREAM, PER CONTRA) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) (read through GHAIYYA, PER CONTRA, PARLANDO, TRYFAN) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE GLEN ROVERS (read through HAVE SECRET, BEYLERBEYI, KING'S CODE, RESPOND) ≈ -0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (102.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (4.06x market expectation)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, struggling 2f out”
#2 LIKEALOT PROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 92 · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET backed 6.2 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
98.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, backed since the morning; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
98.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 98
Official mark (OR)
92 · last won off 85
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · below market expectation (0.7)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.4s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.24% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.48)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 3 · 1m2f66y · rated 981stClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 972ndClass 4 · 1m4f44y · rated 942ndClass 4 · 1m3f110y · rated 916thClass 3 · 1m6f · rated 83
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LIKEALOTneeds 99–103best 982025-02-13 · TFR 80 · 1m2f · Slow · C52025-05-17 · TFR 83 · 1m2f · Firm · C12025-06-01 · TFR 89 · 1m2f · Slow · C42025-07-13 · TFR 88 · 1m3f22y · Std · C32025-09-01 · TFR 93 · 1m3f99y · Gd/Sft · C42025-09-24 · TFR 83 · 1m6f · Good · C3 · off-trip2025-10-21 · TFR 91 · 1m3f103y · Good · C42025-11-04 · TFR 94 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C42025-12-02 · TFR 97 · 1m4f · Std · C42026-06-27 · TFR 98 · 1m2f70y · Good · C313 Feb 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips51/24221.1%1.067/808.8%0.46
In Class 1-3 company ✦71/51413.8%0.9524/18313.1%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)10/6116.4%1.192/922.2%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 99 at/around today's trip, clears the ~99.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 14/61 · at York: A/E 1.11 (n124) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n671)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 10
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 10
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 10
102.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 10
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chester1m2f70yGood34th9285.5True40.1 -0.04106.1+0.09
2 Dec 25Lingfield1m4fStd41st8578True40.6 +0.69110.1+0.17
4 Nov 25Wolverhampton1m4f51ySlow42nd8580True37.2 -0.34102.0+0.23
21 Oct 25Yarmouth1m3f104yGood42nd8675.5True38.5 +0.1797.6—
24 Sep 25Goodwood1m6fGood36th8784Fast early39.0 -0.0996.4+0.00
1 Sep 25Windsor1m3f99yGd/Sft42nd8783True36.9 +0.04101.4+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.65par2f+0.73par3f+0.64par4f+0.60very slow5f+0.58very slow6f+0.59very slow7f+0.55par1m+0.51fast1m 1f+0.54fast1m 2f+0.43fast
Timed runs 2025-09-01 to 2026-06-27. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) (read through LUDO'S LANDING, DANCINGWITHMYSELF, STEEL TIGER, CHARLIE'S CHOICE) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) (read through CHARLIE'S CHOICE, RAINTOWN, BINT AL DAAR, OCEAN HEIGHTS) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE GLEN ROVERS (read through BINT AL DAAR, CIVIL LAW) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (92 today vs 85)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (98.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, went on around 3f out, quickened clear 2f out, comfortably”
#3 ASHNAK (FR) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 10 · OR 89 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
96.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
96.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
89 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 107.92% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 16 places on the course scale (AYR 18th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 2 · 1m5f22y · rated 964thClass 2 · 1m2f66y · rated 943rdClass 2 · 1m4f · rated 968thClass 3 · 1m2f44y · rated 92
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ASHNAK (FR)needs 99–103best 962026-03-29 · TFR 92 · 1m2f44y · Gd/Sft · C32026-04-25 · TFR 96 · 1m4f11y · Good · C22026-05-15 · TFR 94 · 1m2f55y · Good · C22026-06-20 · TFR 96 · 1m5f26y · Soft · C229 Mar 2620 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2033 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 11f+ trips28/20813.5%0.9810/5418.5%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/817.4%0.54
At York7/1176.0%0.822/513.9%0.56
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.918/1475.4%0.59
Coming back after 15 to 45 days107/79313.5%1.1118/2297.9%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 96 is below the ~99.0 the race demands
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 4/35 · at York: A/E 0.88 (n193) · with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n830)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 10
+0.25 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 10
+0.32s
Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 10
107.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length10th of 10
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ayr1m5f26ySoft22nd8888Slow early40.1 -0.03115.7+0.63
15 May 26York1m2f56yGood24th8890True39.1 +0.70106.6+0.42
25 Apr 26Ripon1m4f10yGood23rd8992True39.4 +0.31109.1+0.18
29 Mar 26Doncaster1m2f43yGd/Sft38th9187True36.5 +0.01100.3+0.06
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.98fast2f+1.11slow3f+1.30very slow4f+1.68very slow5f+1.33very slow6f+1.60very slow7f+1.73very slow1m+1.64slow1m 1f+1.10fast1m 2f+0.90very fast1m 3f+0.86very fast1m 4f+0.59very fast1m 5f+0.27very fast
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
20 Jun 26 · 1m5f26y · Soft — finished 2nd vs 9th, 4.45L ahead · OR 88 v 78 · race median 88 (today 87.5)
THE GLEN ROVERS · 1 meeting≈ 1.1L ahead on today's terms · confirms
15 May 26 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 4th vs 9th, 2.45L ahead · OR 88 v 91 · race median 90 (today 87.5)
CHILLINGHAM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 May 26 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 4th vs 15th, 15.05L ahead · OR 88 v 90 · race median 90 (today 87.5)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+4.7L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs TYCOON (read through SPOKEN TRUTH, HAVE SECRET, PER CONTRA) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WAHDAN (IRE) (read through PER CONTRA, CASTLE STUART, SPIORADALTA, ALTAREQ) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (96.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, ridden and headway over 1f out, nearest finish”
#4 THE GLEN ROVERS MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 90 · James Doyle / Lucy Wadham
MARKET backed 26 → 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
92.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, backed since the morning; a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
92.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
90 · last won off 88
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · in line with the market (1.01)
Days since last run
30
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 107.35% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 11 places on the course scale (NEWCASTLE 13th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 87.5 vs 91 last run (NEWCASTLE · 25 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 2 · 1m2f44y · rated 879thClass 2 · 1m2f66y · rated 931stClass 2 · 1m2f44y · rated 975thClass 3 · 1m2f · rated 828thClass 2 · 1m3f · rated 80
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for THE GLEN ROVERSneeds 99–103best 972025-02-28 · TFR 96 · 1m2f · Slow · C22025-11-03 · TFR 90 · 1m3f · Std · C22026-01-28 · TFR 80 · 1m3f · Std · C22026-03-12 · TFR 82 · 1m2f · Std · C32026-04-03 · TFR 97 · 1m2f42y · Std · C22026-05-15 · TFR 93 · 1m2f55y · Good · C22026-06-25 · TFR 87 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C228 Feb 2525 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Lucy Wadham
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 97 is below the ~99.0 the race demands
The rider
James Doyle · last 14 days: 2/14 · at York: A/E 1.07 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 10
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 10
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 10
107.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 10
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newcastle1m2f42ySlow29th9191True40.0 -0.19112.1—
15 May 26York1m2f56yGood29th9190True38.4 +0.00105.7+0.51
3 Apr 26Newcastle1m2f42yStd21st8894.5True39.7 +0.60109.1+0.23
12 Mar 26Chelmsford City1m2fStd35th9086.5True38.3 -0.22103.5+0.11
28 Jan 26Kempton Park1m3fStd28th9295.5True38.6 -0.04103.2+0.04
3 Nov 25Kempton Park1m3fStd29th9286.5True40.4 +0.24110.5+0.08
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.73very slow2f+0.80very slow3f+0.87very slow4f+0.78slow5f+0.69slow6f+0.61par7f+0.63fast1m+0.65very fast1m 1f+0.94very fast1m 2f+1.46fast
Timed runs 2025-11-03 to 2026-06-25. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ASHNAK (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 1.1L behind on today's terms · reverses
15 May 26 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 9th vs 4th, 2.45L behind · OR 91 v 88 · race median 90 (today 87.5)
CHILLINGHAM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 May 26 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 9th vs 15th, 12.6L ahead · OR 91 v 90 · race median 90 (today 87.5)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+3.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) (read through CASTLE STUART, PARLANDO, ANTRIM, PER CONTRA) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LIKEALOT (read through BINT AL DAAR, CIVIL LAW) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) (read through PENZANCE, BINT AL DAAR) ≈ -0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TYCOON (read through HAVE SECRET, BEYLERBEYI, KING'S CODE, RESPOND) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“waited with, under pressure 2f out, hung left, no impression”
#5 WAHDAN (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 88 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET 14 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
92.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
92.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
88 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s)
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.57% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 3 · 1m2f66y · rated 906thClass 3 · 7f198y · rated 958thClass 2 · 1m2f66y · rated 9211thClass · 1m2f154y · rated 773rdClass · 1m1f · rated 86
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for WAHDAN (IRE)needs 99–103best 972025-04-12 · TFR 83 · 1m2f · Good2025-05-11 · TFR 97 · 1m · Good · off-trip2025-06-18 · TFR 81 · 1m · Firm · C2 · off-trip2025-06-29 · TFR 90 · 1m · Good · off-trip2025-07-23 · TFR 80 · 7f · Gd/Sft · off-trip2025-08-08 · TFR 86 · 1m1f · Gd/Frm · off-trip2025-09-26 · TFR 77 · 1m2f150y · Std2026-06-12 · TFR 92 · 1m2f55y · Good · C22026-06-27 · TFR 95 · 7f191y · Good · C3 · off-trip2026-07-10 · TFR 90 · 1m2f70y · Good · C312 Apr 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25
Over 11f+ trips16/1729.3%0.872/474.3%0.41
In Class 1-3 company ✦15/3754.0%0.637/1385.1%0.7
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 99 at/around today's trip, clears the ~99.0 demand
The rider
David Allan · last 14 days: 5/48 · at York: A/E 0.23 (n115) · with this yard: A/E 0.82 (n1592)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 10
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 10
+0.53s
Slow away in 3 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed9th of 10
101.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 10
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Chester1m2f70yGood36th8989.5True40.6 -0.77103.2+0.11
27 Jun 26York7f192yGood36th9083True40.4 +0.34102.6+1.02
12 Jun 26York1m2f56yGood28th9289True40.4 +0.84103.2+0.47
18 Jun 25Ascot1mFirm222nd10397True39.9 +0.0097.2+0.50
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.05fast2f+0.32fast3f+0.46slow4f+0.52very slow5f+0.57slow6f+0.45par7f+0.36fast1m+0.39fast1m 1f+0.46fast1m 2f+0.70par
Timed runs 2025-06-18 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) (read through PER CONTRA, CASTLE STUART, SPORTINGSILVERMINE) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TYCOON (read through KING'S CODE, ASTRO KING, LET'S DREAM, PER CONTRA) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CHILLINGHAM (IRE) (read through DARK MOON RISING, PER CONTRA, CASTLE STUART, ALTAREQ) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ASHNAK (FR) (read through PER CONTRA, CASTLE STUART, SPIORADALTA, ALTAREQ) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 1 run at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Held-Up) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“went right start, off pace, shaken up over 2f out, headway when switched under 2f out, not sustain effort”
#6 CALIBAN (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 87 · P. J. McDonald / Edward Bethell
MARKET drifting 5.9 → 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 10pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
92.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.22)
Days since last run
137
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.23% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 19 places on the course scale (SOUTHWELL 21st → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 87.5 vs 80 last run (SOUTHWELL · 10 Mar 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 1m3f22y · rated 921stClass 3 · 1m3f · rated 862ndClass 5 · 1m4f44y · rated 864thClass 5 · 1m3f22y · rated 774thClass 2 · 1m3f132y · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CALIBAN (IRE)needs 99–103best 922025-04-26 · TFR 79 · 1m3f141y · Gd/Frm · C22025-11-21 · TFR 77 · 1m3f22y · Std · C52025-12-15 · TFR 86 · 1m4f51y · Std · C52026-01-19 · TFR 86 · 1m3f · Std · C32026-03-10 · TFR 92 · 1m3f22y · Std · C426 Apr 2510 Mar 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 137 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Edward Bethell · 863 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-1152/31316.6%0.9723/11520.0%1.34
At this time of year (Q3)39/25315.4%0.959/4619.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦21/13515.6%0.886/5910.2%0.61
Coming back after 91 to 180 days3/2114.3%0.873/2213.6%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At York (small sample)3/417.3%0.730/120.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 95 is below the ~99.0 the race demands
The rider
P. J. McDonald · last 14 days: 4/19 · at York: A/E 1.31 (n100) · with this yard: A/E 1 (n57)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 10
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 10
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 10
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 10
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Mar 26Southwell1m3f23yStd41st8280Fast early37.5 -0.0698.5+0.03
15 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd52nd——True37.6 +0.23103.7+0.06
21 Nov 25Southwell1m3f23yStd54th——True38.0 +0.57104.7-0.06
26 Apr 25Haydock Park1m3f140yGd/Frm24th——True39.1 +0.06106.1+0.32
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledpar3fledfast4fledvery fast5fledvery fast6fledvery fast7fledfast1mledpar1m 1fledvery slow1m 2fledvery slow1m 3fledvery slow
Timed runs 2025-04-26 to 2026-03-10 · last timed run 137 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) (read through CHARLIE'S CHOICE, MIDNIGHT RUMBLE) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.31x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“made all, ridden 2f out, kept going well”
#7 DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 79 · Tom Eaves / Gihan Arnolda
MARKET drifting 12 → 14 · the market rates it a 7% chance
85.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 17pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 31 tries · beats market expectation (1.71)
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 108.19% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 12lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 87.5 vs 75 last run (EPSOM DOWNS · 16 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 851stClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 826thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 755thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 783rdClass 5 · 1m4f · rated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE)needs 99–103best 852025-04-15 · TFR 71 · 1m4f · Std · C52025-04-29 · TFR 64 · 1m6f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-05-15 · TFR 70 · 1m3f · Slow · C42025-05-30 · TFR 9 · 1m3f198y · Good · C52025-06-28 · TFR 79 · 1m4f99y · Slow · C52025-07-12 · TFR 39 · 1m4f64y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-13 · TFR 71 · 1m4f · Slow · C52025-08-25 · TFR 3 · 1m6f22y · Std/Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-10-25 · TFR 22 · 1m4f · Heavy · C52025-11-03 · TFR 67 · 1m4f · Std · C62025-12-06 · TFR 67 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C62025-12-18 · TFR 55 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62025-12-29 · TFR 77 · 1m4f99y · Std · C52026-01-10 · TFR 76 · 1m4f · Std · C52026-01-30 · TFR 78 · 1m4f51y · Std · C42026-02-28 · TFR 78 · 1m4f · Std · C52026-04-03 · TFR 78 · 1m4f · Std · C42026-05-31 · TFR 75 · 1m4f9y · Good · C42026-06-19 · TFR 82 · 1m4f · Good · C42026-07-16 · TFR 85 · 1m4f · Gd/Frm · C415 Apr 2516 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gihan Arnolda
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~99.0 the race demands
The rider
Tom Eaves · last 14 days: 3/21 · at York: A/E 1 (n119)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 10
+0.46 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 10
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 10
108.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 10
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Epsom Downs1m4fGd/Frm41st7575—41.4 +0.49118.6+0.34—
19 Jun 26Goodwood1m4fGood41st7276—38.9 +0.73107.6+0.16
31 May 26Thirsk1m4fGood46th7377.5True39.5 +0.52106.2+0.41
3 Apr 26Lingfield1m4fStd45th7373True39.7 -0.50105.8+0.60
28 Feb 26Lingfield1m4fStd53rd7370True39.5 +0.40107.2+0.00
30 Jan 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd42nd7276.5True37.8 +1.09103.8+0.24
Timed runs 2026-01-30 to 2026-07-16. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
THERAPIST · 1 meeting · n/a
3 Jan 25 · 1m4f · Std/Slow — finished 7th vs 4th, 10L behind · OR 77 v 78 · race median 77 (today 87.5) · stale — 19m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs CHILLINGHAM (IRE) (read through GREAT BEDWYN, L'EAGLE AID, SARATOGA GOLD) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) (read through MADE ALL, PLEASANT MAN, DUST COVER, CHARLIE'S CHOICE) ≈ -5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs CALIBAN (IRE) (read through CHARLIE'S CHOICE, MIDNIGHT RUMBLE) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LIKEALOT (read through CHARLIE'S CHOICE, RAINTOWN, BINT AL DAAR, OCEAN HEIGHTS) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 75)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayProven over the trip (31 tries, beats market expectation at 1.71)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“held up, headway to lead over 1f out, closed down late on, driven out”
#8 HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 9 · OR 77 · Lauren Young / Jim Goldie
MARKET 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
81.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 20.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
81.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (1.13)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s)
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 108.54% (strong late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 10lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 87.5 vs 77.5 last run (YORK · 10 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 4 · 1m3f198y · rated 789thClass 2 · 1m5f22y · rated 792ndClass 3 · 1m3f198y · rated 876thClass 2 · 1m3f44y · rated 812ndClass 3 · 1m3f22y · rated 83
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HUMBLE SPARK (IRE)needs 99–103best 882025-01-30 · TFR 77 · 1m4f13y · Std · C42025-02-08 · TFR 77 · 1m2f42y · Slow · C42025-02-21 · TFR 84 · 1m4f13y · Slow · C52025-02-22 · TFR 80 · 1m4f13y · Std · C22025-03-14 · TFR 88 · 1m3f22y · Std · C42025-04-04 · TFR 85 · 1m6f22y · Std · C4 · off-trip2025-04-18 · TFR 78 · 2m55y · Std · C2 · off-trip2025-05-11 · TFR 88 · 1m4f99y · Std · C32025-05-24 · TFR 88 · 2m46y · Gd/Frm · C2 · off-trip2025-06-28 · TFR 84 · 2m55y · Slow · C2 · off-trip2025-12-05 · TFR 69 · 1m2f42y · Std/Slow · C42025-12-19 · TFR 86 · 1m2f42y · Std · C42026-01-01 · TFR 81 · 1m4f13y · Std · C32026-01-16 · TFR 82 · 2m55y · Std · C2 · off-trip2026-02-19 · TFR 80 · 2m57y · Std · C3 · off-trip2026-04-04 · TFR 85 · 1m5f216y · Soft · C3 · off-trip2026-04-12 · TFR 84 · 1m4f103y · Good · C42026-05-03 · TFR 86 · 1m5f15y · Good · C32026-05-15 · TFR 83 · 1m3f15y · Good · C32026-05-30 · TFR 81 · 1m3f40y · Gd/Frm · C22026-06-13 · TFR 87 · 1m3f187y · Good · C32026-06-20 · TFR 79 · 1m5f26y · Soft · C22026-07-10 · TFR 78 · 1m3f187y · Gd/Frm · C430 Jan 2510 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1477 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Paul Mulrennan, on turf, in fields of 8-11, with a PRO claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 11f+ trips ✦34/25013.6%1.1214/7718.2%1.27
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/41710.8%0.9722/15913.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At York1/333.0%0.40/220.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)70/41816.7%1.37/838.4%0.6
In Class 1-3 company18/1939.3%1.224/636.3%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 89 is below the ~99.0 the race demands
The rider
Lauren Young · last 14 days: 0/10 · at York: A/E 0 (n20) · with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n305)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 10
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 10
+0.83s
Slow away in 6 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 10
108.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length9th of 10
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26York1m3f188yGd/Frm46th7877.5—40.3 +0.47110.4+0.93—
20 Jun 26Ayr1m5f26ySoft29th7888Slow early40.6 +0.48115.7+1.30
13 Jun 26York1m3f188yGood32nd7779True37.7 +0.05101.6+0.79
30 May 26Carlisle1m3f39yGd/Frm26th7891.5Slow early38.4 -0.57105.0+0.76
15 May 26Hamilton Park1m3f15yGood32nd7782True40.0 +0.34106.9+0.63
3 May 26Hamilton Park1m5f16yGood32nd7785True40.1 +0.34111.7+0.58
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f—very slow2f—slow3f—par4f—very slow5f—slow6f—par7f—par1m—par1m 1f—par1m 2f—fast1m 3f—fast1m 4f—fast
Timed runs 2026-05-03 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 4 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
CHILLINGHAM (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 38.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
13 Jun 26 · 1m3f188y · Good — finished 2nd vs 9th, 40.7L ahead · OR 77 v 86 · race median 79 (today 87.5)
ASHNAK (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 3.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
20 Jun 26 · 1m5f26y · Soft — finished 9th vs 2nd, 4.45L behind · OR 78 v 88 · race median 88 (today 87.5)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+23.0L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) (read through MADE ALL, PLEASANT MAN, DUST COVER, CHARLIE'S CHOICE) ≈ +5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LIKEALOT (read through LUDO'S LANDING, DANCINGWITHMYSELF, STEEL TIGER, CHARLIE'S CHOICE) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE GLEN ROVERS (read through CASTLE STUART, PARLANDO, ANTRIM, PER CONTRA) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WAHDAN (IRE) (read through PER CONTRA, CASTLE STUART, SPORTINGSILVERMINE) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (77 today vs 80)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayLost roughly 4.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“slowly away, soon detached, still off pace entering straight, headway over 1f out, never on terms”
#9 THERAPIST MID
DRAW 8 · OR 78 · Mark Winn / Peter Niven
MARKET drifting 44 → 70 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 21pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
81.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
175
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 110.8% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 21 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 12lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 87.5 vs 75 last run (LINGFIELD PARK · 31 Jan 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 1m7f176y · rated 812ndClass 4 · 1m3f22y · rated 784thClass 2 · 1m2f · rated 824thClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 783rdClass 4 · 1m4f · rated 85
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for THERAPISTneeds 99–103best 882025-03-01 · TFR 78 · 1m3f22y · Std · C42026-01-31 · TFR 81 · 1m7f169y · Std/Slow · C4 · off-trip1 Mar 2531 Jan 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 175 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Peter Niven · 154 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf8/6013.3%1.622/229.1%1.87
In fields of 8-118/6711.9%1.272/219.5%1.74
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 91 to 180 days0/30.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark9/3823.7%1.770/60.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)3/3010.0%1.030/50.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)0/20.0%0.0—
At York (small sample)0/30.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 88 is below the ~99.0 the race demands
The rider
Mark Winn · last 14 days: 2/17 · at York: A/E 0.93 (n44) · with this yard: A/E 1.92 (n20)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 10
+0.32 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 10
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 10
110.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 10
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
31 Jan 26Lingfield1m7f169yStd/Slow44th7875True40.9 +0.50118.5+0.14
1 Mar 25Southwell1m3f23yStd42nd7774True39.3 +0.00109.2+0.02
18 Jan 25Lingfield1m2fSlow24th7783Slow early41.2 +0.45112.7+0.18
3 Jan 25Lingfield1m4fStd/Slow44th7877True39.5 +0.38107.4+0.10
4 Dec 24Lingfield1m2fStandard—3rd——True40.4 +0.27109.0-0.30
23 Aug 24Goodwood1m4fGood43rd8081True—107.9—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.58very slow2f+0.76very slow3f+0.86very slow4f+0.87par5f+0.74par6f+0.66slow7f+0.64par1m+0.59slow1m 1f+0.80par1m 2f+0.60par1m 3f+0.55par1m 4f+0.59fast1m 5f+0.59very fast1m 6f+0.55very fast1m 7f+0.41very fast2m+0.19very fast
Timed runs 2024-08-23 to 2026-01-31 · last timed run 175 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 11.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
3 Jan 25 · 1m4f · Std/Slow — finished 4th vs 7th, 10L ahead · OR 78 v 77 · race median 77 (today 87.5)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+11.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CHILLINGHAM (IRE) (read through BARENBOIM, KINETIC) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) (read through EDUCATOR, BERKSHIRE SUNDANCE, CARAMAY, NOWHERE) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, outpaced over 2f out, headway when carried head bit awkwardly over 1f out, not quicken”
#10 CHILLINGHAM (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR 83 · Paul Mulrennan / Micky Hammond
MARKET drifting 48 → 70 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
60.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 41.3pts off the top, fits the winner profile on recency; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
60.7 · ranked #10 here · career best 106
Official mark (OR)
83 · last won off 92
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 12 tries · below market expectation (0.95)
Days since last run
42
Sectional clock
Last time: 8.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.5% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 8lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 87.5 vs 79 last run (YORK · 13 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 3 · 1m3f198y · rated 2815thClass 2 · 1m2f66y · rated 686thClass 3 · 1m3f176y · rated 864thClass 3 · 1m2f · rated 966thClass 2 · 1m3f198y · rated 95
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CHILLINGHAM (IRE)best 106needs 99–1032025-04-19 · TFR 76 · 1m5f216y · Good · C2 · off-trip2025-06-14 · TFR 101 · 1m3f187y · Gd/Frm · C32025-07-05 · TFR 102 · 1m3f176y · Good · C22025-07-26 · TFR 81 · 1m3f187y · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-22 · TFR 95 · 1m3f187y · Gd/Frm · C22025-09-25 · TFR 96 · 1m2f · Soft · C32025-10-07 · TFR 86 · 1m3f178y · Good · C32026-01-23 · TFR 78 · 2m128y · Soft · C3 · off-trip2026-05-15 · TFR 68 · 1m2f55y · Good · C22026-06-13 · TFR 28 · 1m3f187y · Good · C319 Apr 2513 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Micky Hammond · 326 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark0/160.0%0.01/812.5%1.64
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips9/1078.4%1.021/422.4%0.34
On turf10/1576.4%0.871/303.3%0.48
In fields of 8-1112/1527.9%1.361/333.0%0.5
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At York (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 106 at/around today's trip, clears the ~99.0 demand
The rider
Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 3/25 · at York: A/E 1.04 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 87.5 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 10
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 10
+0.46s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed10th of 10
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 10
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26York1m3f188yGood39th8679True37.7 +0.0290.5+0.51
15 May 26York1m2f56yGood215th9090True37.9 -0.54101.0+0.50
7 Oct 25Leicester1m3f179yGood36th9191Slow early38.2 -0.32106.2+0.69
22 Aug 25York1m3f188yGd/Frm26th9494.5True39.6 +0.36102.2+0.21
26 Jul 25York1m3f188yGd/Frm37th9588True41.0 +0.11102.5+0.00
5 Jul 25Haydock Park1m3f175yGood26th9690.5True39.4 +0.32100.5+0.84
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.41very slow2f+0.38slow3f+0.41very fast4f+0.47very fast5f+0.48very fast6f+0.40fast7f+0.33par1m+0.28par1m 1f+0.30slow1m 2f+0.84very slow1m 3f+2.46very slow1m 4f+6.79very slow
Timed runs 2025-07-05 to 2026-06-13. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
HUMBLE SPARK (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 38.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Jun 26 · 1m3f188y · Good — finished 9th vs 2nd, 40.7L behind · OR 86 v 77 · race median 79 (today 87.5)
THE GLEN ROVERS · 1 meeting≈ 8.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 May 26 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 15th vs 9th, 12.6L behind · OR 90 v 91 · race median 90 (today 87.5)
ASHNAK (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 9.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 May 26 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 15th vs 4th, 15.05L behind · OR 90 v 88 · race median 90 (today 87.5)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-22.6L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DAMASCUS STEEL (IRE) (read through GREAT BEDWYN, L'EAGLE AID, SARATOGA GOLD) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THERAPIST (read through BARENBOIM, KINETIC) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs WAHDAN (IRE) (read through DARK MOON RISING, PER CONTRA, CASTLE STUART, ALTAREQ) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs TYCOON (read through BEYLERBEYI, HAVE SECRET, DARK MOON RISING, PER CONTRA) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
9lb below his last winning mark (83 today vs 92)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayLost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, outpaced 3f out, dropped away 2f out”