FORMLAB Race Report — York 16:52

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

York · 16:52

Class 4 · 7f · Good to Firm (Good in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 75

GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 15 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 12:53 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Good in places)

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32

FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 4	72	25%	58.3%	29.2%	62.5%
sprints (5-7f)	113	26.5%	55.8%	28.3%	58.4%
handicaps	159	25.2%	59.1%	25.8%	57.2%

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (85% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (45% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 8th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE) leads on 89, 2pts clear of RETURN OF THE GODS (IRE) — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is KEEP AN EYE ON IT — concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — and finds plenty late. The market sees it differently, making MR NOBLE (IRE) the 17% favourite — a horse our figures rate 5th.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE)

OR 80 · Rossa Ryan / Kevin & Lauren Frost

MARKET backed 7.6 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance

89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (89.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 9

RETURN OF THE GODS (IRE)

OR 79 · James Doyle / Edward Bethell

MARKET drifting 4.9 → 5.8 · the market rates it a 17% chance

87.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 14

RAGING RAJ (IRE)

OR 75 · Daniel Tudhope / Michael Herrington

MARKET backed 21 → 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (83.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.38)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1BRIGHT SUMMER (IRE)net +11drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot

2FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on market position

3RAGING RAJ (IRE)net +9race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. BRIGHT SUMMER (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE) lacks: dropping in class.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

TOASTMASTER (IRE) FIGURE #4

Michael Herrington's runners in Class 4-5 company win 16.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Michael Herrington's runners kept to the same class win 15.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

contested early pace likely (6 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 31% · hold-up closers 29% (35 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Long, flat, galloping 5f run-in; most horses get a clear run finish. Winners’ energy signature: 50.05% spent early (band 49.6–50.54%, 45 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~8 at halfway, 0.5s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89

20 similar races at YORK, 6.0-8.0f, 3yo handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (85% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (45% from the first three favourites). 15% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Last ran

65% 15-45d

20% within 14d

10% 46-90d

Market

55% 4th+ in the market

20% favourite

15% 3rd favourite

LTO form

45% unplaced last time

40% placed last time

15% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 15 runners · stalls 1–15

123456789101112131415

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–15).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · RETURN OF THE GODS (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · RAGING RAJ (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

INVINCIBLE BOY (IRE) MID 50.5% 98.6 one-paced late — 14th of 15 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

MR NOBLE (IRE) PROMINENT 48.3% 103.2 a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls

FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE) MID 48.9% 103.5 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

THANKFULLY (IRE) MID 48.8% 100.5 one-paced late — 8th of 15 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front

RETURN OF THE GODS (IRE) MID 48.6% 103.1 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

BRIGHT SUMMER (IRE) PROMINENT 49.5% 99.9 the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls

ZARVALI (IRE) HELD-UP 50.6% 99.1 one-paced late — 12th of 15 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

RAGING RAJ (IRE) PROMINENT 49.3% 103.2 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late

TOASTMASTER (IRE) MID 48.9% 102.9 solid late gains (6th of 15 on late speed here), saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

BLEEP TEST MID 49.4% 100.1 one-paced late — 9th of 15 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front

MILFORD GRANGE PROMINENT 49.5% 99.7 concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — but holds one pace late

FOREST PHOENIX HELD-UP 49.1% 101.8 solid late gains (7th of 15 on late speed here), saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

KEEP AN EYE ON IT PROMINENT 49.2% 103.9 concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — and finds plenty late

GUNALT WAVELENGTH PROMINENT 51.3% 98.8 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late

DACRES CROSS (IRE) MID 51.4% 97.9 held up without the late gear (15th of 15 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

BRIGHT SUMMER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

MR NOBLE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

GUNALT WAVELENGTHPROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.18s off the field’s best

RAGING RAJ (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best

MILFORD GRANGEPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.10s off the field’s best

KEEP AN EYE ON ITPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best

nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE) MID

DRAW 2 · OR 80 · Rossa Ryan / Kevin & Lauren Frost

MARKET backed 7.6 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance

89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 2pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

89.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 89

Official mark (OR)

80 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.43)

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 103.5% (strong late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 78 last run (NEWMARKET · 10 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 892ndClass 4 · 7f · rated 885thClass 4 · 7f · rated 823rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 851stClass 4 · 6f · rated 89

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Kevin & Lauren Frost

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand

The rider

Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 14/61 · at York: A/E 1.11 (n124) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 15

+0.28 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph9th of 15

+0.13s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 15

103.5%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length1st of 15

7.51 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

10 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm43rd8078Slow early40.6 +0.35104.9+0.23

20 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm42nd8076—40.9 +0.70102.8+0.07

6 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm45th——Slow early41.2 +0.00107.3+0.34

16 May 26Doncaster6fGood43rd——True41.0 +0.33101.0+0.00

24 Apr 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm41st——True41.0 +0.02101.5+0.01

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.50par2f+0.46par3f+0.48slow4f+0.43slow5f+0.38par6f+0.27fast7f+0.09very fast

Timed runs 2026-04-24 to 2026-07-10. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

TOASTMASTER (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.9L ahead on today's terms · confirms

10 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 5th, 1.35L ahead · OR 80 v 75 · race median 78 (today 75)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs ZARVALI (IRE) (read through HARSWELL ANGEL, FRENCH AFFAIR, COTAI EYE JOE) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through HARSWELL ANGEL, FRENCH AFFAIR, COTAI EYE JOE, VEGA STORM) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (89.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-3 jockey booked, only 2 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-division, headway entering final 1f, challenged soon after, kept on”

#2 RETURN OF THE GODS (IRE) MID

DRAW 9 · OR 79 · James Doyle / Edward Bethell

MARKET drifting 4.9 → 5.8 · the market rates it a 17% chance

Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−

87.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 2pts off the top, prominent in the betting; a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 87

Official mark (OR)

79 · last won off 75

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (2.05)

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 103.09% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 8 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 4 · 7f · rated 872ndClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 838thClass 4 · 6f · rated 531stClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 783rdClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 77

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Edward Bethell · 863 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)39/25315.4%0.959/4619.6%1.16

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Above their last winning mark ✦21/13515.6%0.886/5910.2%0.61

Too few runners to read reliably

At York (small sample)3/417.3%0.730/120.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand

The rider

James Doyle · last 14 days: 2/14 · at York: A/E 1.07 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 15

+0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 15

+0.09s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 15

103.1%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length7th of 15

7.37 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm41st7576True41.0 +0.12101.4+0.00

25 Jun 26Nottingham6f18yGd/Frm52nd7574True42.1 +0.71102.6+0.15

8 Apr 26Kempton Park6fSlow48th7775.5True40.7 -0.12104.4+0.22

20 Oct 25Wolverhampton6f20ySlow51st——True40.4 +0.00102.3+0.05

4 Oct 25Wolverhampton6f20ySlow53rd——True39.0 -0.45104.8+0.05

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.41par2f+0.43par3f+0.45par4f+0.44par5f+0.28par6fledpar7fledpar

Timed runs 2025-10-04 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through MASTER OF ENTROPY, GOLDWORK) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

4lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Improving fast — last run rated 87, 12pts above his recent average of 74.3Only 5 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“in touch, pushed along 2f out, headway to lead 1f out, edged right final 1f, kept on”

#3 RAGING RAJ (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 14 · OR 75 · Daniel Tudhope / Michael Herrington

MARKET backed 21 → 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late.

FormLab Figure

83.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 74

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.38)

Days since last run

29

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s)
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 103.21% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 17 places on the course scale (YARMOUTH 19th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 7f · rated 833rdClass 5 · 7f132y · rated 796thClass 4 · 1m · rated 697thClass 4 · 1m · rated 802ndClass 4 · 1m22y · rated 81

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Herrington · 682 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, coming back after 8 to 14 days, with a new jockey booked, switching jockey after a defeat, off a judgement-rated last figure, without a sectional tell last time, without a recent yard winner, mid-campaign

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of 12-156/1205.0%0.738/3622.2%2.49

On turf ✦23/18512.4%1.1714/7518.7%1.43

Over 7-8f trips ✦42/27015.6%1.5517/10616.0%1.39

At this time of year (Q3)17/13812.3%1.145/1827.8%1.36

Above their last winning mark ✦31/20315.3%1.319/10218.6%1.34

In Class 4-5 company ✦28/20113.9%1.3314/8416.7%1.32

Too few runners to read reliably

At York (small sample)2/1513.3%2.170/80.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 4/35 · at York: A/E 0.88 (n193) · with this yard: A/E 1.32 (n8)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields5th of 15

+0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 15

+0.06s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 15

103.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length12th of 15

7.26 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 Jun 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm51st7473Slow early40.9 -0.20108.5-0.18

30 May 26Lingfield7f135yGd/Frm53rd7471.5True41.0 +0.01103.4+0.28

8 May 26Ascot1mGood46th7682True39.0 -0.2698.5+0.09

14 Apr 26Newmarket1mGood47th7782.5True39.1 +0.0296.3+0.08

28 Dec 25Southwell1m13yStd42nd77—True39.5 +0.12105.3+0.00

28 Nov 25Southwell7f14yStd61st7064Slow early40.1 +0.44107.3+0.08

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledvery fast2fledvery slow3fledvery slow4fledslow5fledpar6fledfast7fledvery fast

Timed runs 2025-11-28 to 2026-06-26. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

GUNALT WAVELENGTH · 1 meeting≈ 43.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

28 Nov 25 · 7f14y · Std — finished 1st vs 9th, 43L ahead · OR 70 v 60 · race median 64 (today 75)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+43.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through ECCLEFECHAN, PEEL PARK, CRYSTAL AURORA, SUPREME DANCER) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs TOASTMASTER (IRE) (read through PEEL PARK, KIMBARA, PHANTOM WATCH) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MILFORD GRANGE (read through LUZON HEIGHTS, GET OUTTA HERE) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs ZARVALI (IRE) (read through LUZON HEIGHTS, GET OUTTA HERE) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (83.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.38)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“dictated, pushed along over 2f out, closed down final 1f, driven out”

#4 TOASTMASTER (IRE) MID

DRAW 4 · OR 75 · Kieran Shoemark / Michael Herrington

MARKET backed 7 → 5.9 · the market rates it a 16% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−

81.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 7.3pts off the top, prominent in the betting; solid late gains (6th of 15 on late speed here), saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

81.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

75 · last won off 73

Record at today's distance

1 win from 8 tries · below market expectation (0.83)

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s)
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.93% (holds late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 78 last run (NEWMARKET · 10 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 4 · 7f · rated 801stClass 4 · 7f · rated 833rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 823rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 825thClass 5 · 1m · rated 74

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Herrington · 682 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of 12-156/1205.0%0.738/3622.2%2.49

On turf ✦23/18512.4%1.1714/7518.7%1.43

Over 7-8f trips ✦42/27015.6%1.5517/10616.0%1.39

At this time of year (Q3)17/13812.3%1.145/1827.8%1.36

Above their last winning mark ✦31/20315.3%1.319/10218.6%1.34

In Class 4-5 company ✦28/20113.9%1.3314/8416.7%1.32

Too few runners to read reliably

At York (small sample)2/1513.3%2.170/80.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 5/36 · at York: A/E 1.1 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 1.8 (n7)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields6th of 15

+0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 15

+0.11s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 15

102.9%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length8th of 15

7.35 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

10 Jul 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm45th7578Slow early40.1 -0.17103.0+0.14

20 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm41st7376—40.7 +0.51104.8+0.08

5 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm43rd7379Slow early41.6 +0.62107.4+0.06

23 May 26York7fGood43rd7376True39.5 -0.7898.0+0.21

24 Apr 26Doncaster7f213yGd/Frm55th7473True38.8 -0.71100.4+0.01

25 Feb 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow43rd7575True38.1 +0.64104.0+0.17

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.36par2f+0.43slow3f+0.40slow4f+0.17slow5f+0.11par6f+0.13fast7f+0.31fast

Timed runs 2026-02-25 to 2026-07-10. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses

10 Jul 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 3rd, 1.35L behind · OR 75 v 80 · race median 78 (today 75)

ZARVALI (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms

23 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 3rd vs 6th, 3.25L ahead · OR 73 v 80 · race median 76 (today 75)

DACRES CROSS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses

23 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 3rd vs 4th, 2.75L ahead · OR 73 v 70 · race median 76 (today 75)

Read through a common rival

vs RAGING RAJ (IRE) (read through PEEL PARK, KIMBARA, PHANTOM WATCH) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs GUNALT WAVELENGTH (read through UBETTERSEETHIS, SPORTING LIGHT, PHANTOM WATCH) ≈ +0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“in touch, effort over 1f out, faded late on”

#5 MR NOBLE (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 6 · OR 80 · Clifford Lee / K. R. Burke

MARKET backed 6.2 → 5.7 · the market rates it a 17% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

80 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 9pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

80 · ranked #5 here · career best 85

Official mark (OR)

80 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 3 tries · below market expectation (0.9)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (galloped on)

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 103.15% (strong late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 80 last run (YORK · 27 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 792ndClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 761stClass 5 · 6f · rated 85

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

K. R. Burke · 1725 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3) ✦92/52017.7%1.0515/5825.9%1.21

Over 7-8f trips ✦95/50019.0%1.1836/15623.1%1.2

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 12-1529/21713.4%1.314/666.1%0.6

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 3/16 · at York: A/E 0.85 (n130) · with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n795)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields1st of 15

+0.57 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 15

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 15

103.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length10th of 15

7.32 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26York6fGood43rd8080True42.9 +0.1496.2+0.11

2 Jun 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd52nd——True41.0 +1.17108.7+0.00

20 Nov 25Newcastle6fSlow51st——True39.7 +0.40104.6+0.04

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.22fast2f+0.23fast3f+0.21par4f+0.28slow5f+0.82very slow6f+0.77par

Timed runs 2025-11-20 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

INVINCIBLE BOY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

27 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 3rd vs 8th, 7.35L ahead · OR 80 v 82 · race median 80 (today 75)

BLEEP TEST · 1 meeting≈ 7.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

27 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 3rd vs 11th, 11.85L ahead · OR 80 v 80 · race median 80 (today 75)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+7.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through EVENING BLUES, BYE LAW, KINNALARGY) ≈ +5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“in touch, pushed along 2f out, ran green approaching final 1f, ran on”

#6 BRIGHT SUMMER (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 3 · OR 78 · P. J. McDonald / Andrew Balding

MARKET drifting 17 → 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−

80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 9pts off the top, dropping in class; the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

80.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 86

Official mark (OR)

78 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (2.01)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 99.88% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 83.5 last run (CHESTER · 27 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 3 · 7f · rated 808thClass 4 · 7f · rated 501stClass 4 · 7f · rated 864thClass 4 · 7f · rated 75

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Andrew Balding · 2437 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At York21/9721.6%1.636/2821.4%1.25

Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0549/21822.5%1.23

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1270/29323.9%1.22

In Class 4-5 company ✦184/96219.1%1.0357/23324.5%1.15

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

P. J. McDonald · last 14 days: 4/19 · at York: A/E 1.31 (n100) · with this yard: A/E 1.24 (n243)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields9th of 15

-0.03 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 15

+0.04s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed10th of 15

99.9%

One-paced late

Stride length13th of 15

7.13 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26Chester7fGood36th8083.5True40.0 -0.1999.8+0.03

9 Jun 26Salisbury6f213yHeavy48th——True36.0 -0.0292.3+0.00

12 May 26Lingfield7fStd41st——True40.0 +0.09103.0+0.11

17 Apr 26Newbury7fGood44th——Slow early39.8 +0.00104.3+0.04

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.22par2f+0.49par3f+0.56fast4f+0.43par5f+0.51slow6f+0.65slow7f+0.62slow

Timed runs 2026-04-17 to 2026-06-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.31x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“pressed leader, challenged 2f out, weakened entering final 1f”

#7 THANKFULLY (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 13 · OR 79 · Paul Mulrennan / K. R. Burke

MARKET drifting 26 → 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

78 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 11pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

78 · ranked #7 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

79 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 6 tries · below market expectation (0.84)

Days since last run

14

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.46% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 80 last run (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 7f132y · rated 7229thClass 2 · 1m · rated —5thClass 4 · 1m · rated 831stClass 4 · 1m110y · rated 795thClass 4 · 1m · rated 68

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

K. R. Burke · 1725 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3) ✦92/52017.7%1.0515/5825.9%1.21

Over 7-8f trips ✦95/50019.0%1.1836/15623.1%1.2

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 12-1529/21713.4%1.314/666.1%0.6

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Paul Mulrennan · last 14 days: 3/25 · at York: A/E 1.04 (n83) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n6)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields10th of 15

-0.10 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph12th of 15

+0.19s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed8th of 15

100.5%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length15th of 15

6.97 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jul 26Chester7f127yGood48th8080True39.8 -0.9797.9+0.53

19 Jun 26Ascot1mGd/Frm229th8288.5True38.4 -0.4587.9+0.27

31 May 26Thirsk1mGood45th8282True39.5 -0.23106.0+0.00

15 Apr 26Beverley1m100yGd/Sft41st——Slow early38.9 +1.06103.3+0.19

25 Oct 25Newbury1mHeavy45th——True38.0 -0.05105.0+0.11

30 Aug 25Sandown Park7fSoft23rd——True37.1 +0.04102.7+0.05

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.87very slow2f+1.49slow3f+1.74par4f+1.56fast5f+1.22fast6f+1.10par7f+0.98slow1m+1.34slow

Timed runs 2025-08-30 to 2026-07-11. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayLost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“slowly away, soon detached, progress early in straight, no further impression”

#8 ZARVALI (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 12 · OR 78 · Kevin Stott / Roger Fell

MARKET drifting 18 → 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

77.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

8th on the figures, 11.3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; one-paced late — 12th of 15 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

77.7 · ranked #8 here · career best 84

Official mark (OR)

78 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.49)

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 99.09% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 4 · 7f198y · rated 693rdClass 4 · 7f · rated 846thClass 4 · 7f · rated 801stClass 5 · 7f · rated 822ndClass · 6f · rated 71

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Roger Fell · 375 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of 12-155/568.9%1.144/3212.5%1.37

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At York0/140.0%0.00/160.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)6/797.6%0.751/283.6%0.3

Over 7-8f trips15/12212.3%1.368/958.4%0.83

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Kevin Stott · last 14 days: 3/24 · at York: A/E 0.37 (n55) · with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n35)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields4th of 15

+0.04 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph15th of 15

+0.35s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed12th of 15

99.1%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 15

7.44 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

10 Jul 26York7f192yGd/Frm47th7973True40.2 +0.6096.1+0.56

16 Jun 26Thirsk7fGood43rd7977Fast early39.8 +0.42104.1+0.27

23 May 26York7fGood46th8076True39.8 -0.4696.4+0.28

11 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood51st——True40.6 -0.3899.8+0.27

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.68slow2f+0.71par3f+0.80par4f+0.82fast5f+0.63fast6f+0.36par7f+0.58very slow1m+1.57very slow

Timed runs 2026-05-11 to 2026-07-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

TOASTMASTER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses

23 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 6th vs 3rd, 3.25L behind · OR 80 v 73 · race median 76 (today 75)

DACRES CROSS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

23 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 6th vs 4th, 0.5L behind · OR 80 v 70 · race median 76 (today 75)

MILFORD GRANGE · 1 meeting≈ 2.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

10 Jul 26 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 6th, 2.75L behind · OR 79 v 70 · race median 73 (today 75)

FOREST PHOENIX · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

10 Jul 26 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 8th, 3L ahead · OR 79 v 70 · race median 73 (today 75)

Read through a common rival

vs GUNALT WAVELENGTH (read through ONLY DREAM BIG, UBETTERSEETHIS, SPORTING LIGHT) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs BLEEP TEST (read through BYE LAW, ORMOLULU) ≈ +1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs FLIGHT CONTROL (IRE) (read through HARSWELL ANGEL, FRENCH AFFAIR, COTAI EYE JOE) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs RAGING RAJ (IRE) (read through LUZON HEIGHTS, GET OUTTA HERE) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsLost roughly 2.5 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“mid-field, effort over 2f out, edged left over 1f out, never on terms”

#9 MILFORD GRANGE PROMINENT

DRAW 8 · OR 69 · Connor Beasley / Michael & David Easterby

MARKET drifting 22 → 29 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

73.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

9th on the figures, 15.3pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — but holds one pace late.

FormLab Figure

73.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 78

Official mark (OR)

69 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 6 tries

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 99.74% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time visor · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.87)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 4 · 7f198y · rated 672ndClass 5 · 7f44y · rated 782ndClass 5 · 6f · rated 762ndClass 5 · 6f · rated 687thClass 4 · 6f · rated 9

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael & David Easterby · 1245 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange

Signature angle: keeping the same jockey

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At York1/531.9%0.380/240.0%0.0

In fields of 12-1515/2316.5%0.892/653.1%0.49

In Class 4-5 company ✦40/5287.6%0.8210/1626.2%0.71

Over 7-8f trips ✦24/3227.5%0.829/1237.3%0.84

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Connor Beasley · last 14 days: 5/23 · at York: A/E 0.47 (n102) · with this yard: A/E 0.97 (n12)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields7th of 15

+0.01 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 15

+0.10s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed11th of 15

99.7%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 15

7.44 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

10 Jul 26York7f192yGd/Frm46th7073True39.6 +0.0098.2+0.30

20 Jun 26Ayr7f50ySoft52nd6967True38.9 +0.05103.0+0.00

16 May 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft52nd6969True39.9 -0.07100.3+0.10

16 Apr 26Ripon6fGd/Sft52nd——Slow early39.0 -0.38102.7-0.02

7 Apr 26Pontefract6fGd/Sft47th——True38.9 +0.3992.0+0.03

17 Oct 25Redcar5f217yGood53rd——True40.4 +0.05102.2+0.22

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.70slow2f+0.81par3f+0.73par4f+0.70fast5f+0.59par6f+0.58slow7f+0.68slow1m+1.10slow

Timed runs 2025-10-17 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

ZARVALI (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

10 Jul 26 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 7th, 2.75L ahead · OR 70 v 79 · race median 73 (today 75)

FOREST PHOENIX · 1 meeting≈ 5.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

10 Jul 26 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 8th, 5.75L ahead · OR 70 v 70 · race median 73 (today 75)

INVINCIBLE BOY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 22.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

7 Apr 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 7th vs 1st, 22L behind

KEEP AN EYE ON IT · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

17 Oct 25 · 5f217y · Good — finished 3rd vs 4th, 2L ahead

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (-3.8L adj, 4 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs GUNALT WAVELENGTH (read through UNCERTAINTY, ELLIE'S DE VEGA, ONLY DREAM BIG, WATCHDOG) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs RAGING RAJ (IRE) (read through LUZON HEIGHTS, GET OUTTA HERE) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through ILLY'S ROO, BELIEVEINMENOW) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“dwelt, waited with, effort over 2f out, one paced”

#10 KEEP AN EYE ON IT PROMINENT

DRAW 7 · OR 67 · Cam Hardie / Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood

MARKET drifting 46 → 60 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−

72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

10th on the figures, 17pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

72.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 72

Official mark (OR)

67 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

104

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.2s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 103.86% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 15 places on the course scale (MUSSELBURGH 17th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 68.5 last run (MUSSELBURGH · 12 Apr 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 722ndClass 5 · 7f22y · rated 715thClass 4 · 5f · rated 464thClass 5 · 6f · rated 714thClass 5 · 6f · rated 60

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · 304 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of 12-156/5311.3%1.663/1816.7%2.15

At this time of year (Q3)10/8012.5%1.553/1618.8%2.04

In Class 4-5 company7/897.9%1.013/3010.0%1.84

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 91 to 180 days0/100.0%0.00/60.0%0.0

On turf17/15011.3%1.342/613.3%0.43

Too few runners to read reliably

At York (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 77 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Cam Hardie · last 14 days: 1/23 · at York: A/E 0.5 (n123) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n10)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields8th of 15

-0.00 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 15

+0.07s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 15

103.9%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 15

7.46 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

12 Apr 26Musselburgh1mGood53rd6768.5True38.9 +0.12101.8+0.00

2 Apr 26Southwell7f14yStd52nd6668Slow early40.8 +0.09110.1+0.00

24 Feb 26Southwell4f214yStd45th——True39.8 -0.67102.6+0.21

4 Nov 25Redcar5f217yGood54th——Slow early41.2 +0.45104.0+0.13

17 Oct 25Redcar5f217yGood54th——True40.3 +0.01100.8+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.14par2f+0.27par3f+0.50par4f+0.61par5f+0.42slow6f+0.50very slow7f+0.43par1m+0.54par

Timed runs 2025-10-17 to 2026-04-12. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

MILFORD GRANGE · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

17 Oct 25 · 5f217y · Good — finished 4th vs 3rd, 2L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through SUPREME CLARETS, SPORTING LIGHT) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs GUNALT WAVELENGTH (read through SPORTING LIGHT, IBN ALTHEEB) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Improving fast — last run rated 72, 9pts above his recent average of 63.0Only 4 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“in touch, ridden over 1f out, hung right, kept on, clear of rest”

#11 GUNALT WAVELENGTH PROMINENT

DRAW 10 · OR 65 · Joanna Mason / Michael & David Easterby

MARKET backed 44 → 27 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

69.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

11th on the figures, 19.3pts off the top, backed since the morning; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

69.7 · ranked #11 here · career best 70

Official mark (OR)

65 · last won off 61

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 13 tries · beats market expectation (1.2)

Days since last run

22

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 98.83% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 8 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 10lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 65 last run (DONCASTER · 3 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 5 · 7f · rated 691stClass 6 · 7f · rated 701stClass 6 · 6f · rated 702ndClass 6 · 6f · rated 669thClass 6 · 7f22y · rated —

Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael & David Easterby · 1245 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange

Signature angle: keeping the same jockey

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At York1/531.9%0.380/240.0%0.0

In fields of 12-1515/2316.5%0.892/653.1%0.49

In Class 4-5 company ✦40/5287.6%0.8210/1626.2%0.71

Over 7-8f trips ✦24/3227.5%0.829/1237.3%0.84

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 74 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Joanna Mason · last 14 days: 3/28 · at York: A/E 1.15 (n79) · with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n608)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields13th of 15

-0.27 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph11th of 15

+0.18s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed13th of 15

98.8%

One-paced late

Stride length14th of 15

6.99 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

3 Jul 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm54th6565—40.8 -0.05107.8+0.09—

14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGood61st6161True40.4 +0.12101.2+0.09

17 May 26Ripon6fGood61st5855True42.1 +0.0096.3—

20 Apr 26Redcar5f217yGd/Frm62nd5851True40.5 -0.4499.6+0.36

28 Nov 25Southwell7f14yStd69th6064Slow early39.0 -0.6890.5+0.38

28 Oct 25Catterick Bridge5f212ySoft62nd6053True37.6 -0.5597.5-0.02

Timed runs 2025-10-28 to 2026-07-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

DACRES CROSS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

6 Oct 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 2nd vs 6th, 4.7L ahead · OR 60 v 73 · race median 68 (today 75)

RAGING RAJ (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 43.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

28 Nov 25 · 7f14y · Std — finished 9th vs 1st, 43L behind · OR 60 v 70 · race median 64 (today 75)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-15.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs FOREST PHOENIX (read through ONLY DREAM BIG, SIMBA'S PRIDE, EMPRESS OLIVIA) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs ZARVALI (IRE) (read through ONLY DREAM BIG, UBETTERSEETHIS, SPORTING LIGHT) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs MILFORD GRANGE (read through UNCERTAINTY, ELLIE'S DE VEGA, ONLY DREAM BIG, WATCHDOG) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs KEEP AN EYE ON IT (read through SPORTING LIGHT, IBN ALTHEEB) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

4lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 61)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (13 tries, beats market expectation at 1.2)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 18 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, outpaced over 2f out, stayed on inside final 1f”

#12 DACRES CROSS (IRE) MID

DRAW 5 · OR 65 · Rowan Scott / Kevin Ryan

MARKET drifting 29 → 44 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

68.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

12th on the figures, 21pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

68.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 73

Official mark (OR)

65 · last won off 70

Record at today's distance

1 win from 9 tries · in line with the market (1.04)

Days since last run

17

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 97.92% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 31 places on the course scale (CATTERICK BRIDGE 33rd → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 69 last run (CATTERICK BRIDGE · 8 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 5 · 7f · rated 684thClass 4 · 7f · rated 7111thClass 4 · 7f · rated —6thClass 5 · 6f · rated 547thClass 4 · 6f · rated 73

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Kevin Ryan · 1212 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At York7/1305.4%0.783/339.1%1.78

Over 7-8f trips21/2618.0%0.7810/6814.7%1.25

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/395.1%0.54

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 74 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Rowan Scott · last 14 days: 2/15 · at York: A/E 1.19 (n77) · with this yard: A/E 1.23 (n38)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields11th of 15

-0.15 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph13th of 15

+0.20s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed15th of 15

97.9%

One-paced late

Stride length11th of 15

7.32 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Jul 26Catterick Bridge7fGd/Frm55th6869—41.0 -0.4898.7+0.00—

23 May 26York7fGood44th7076True40.3 +0.0496.6+0.17

26 Apr 26Wetherby7fGd/Frm411th7283True40.4 -0.21103.4+0.02

6 Oct 25Pontefract6fSoft56th7368.5True37.5 -0.2396.2+0.50

12 Sep 25Doncaster6fGood47th7480True40.8 +0.0098.0+0.22

20 Aug 25York6fGood217th7679True40.8 -0.0194.7+0.28

Timed runs 2025-08-20 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

ZARVALI (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

23 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 4th vs 6th, 0.5L ahead · OR 70 v 80 · race median 76 (today 75)

TOASTMASTER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms

23 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 4th vs 3rd, 2.75L behind · OR 70 v 73 · race median 76 (today 75)

GUNALT WAVELENGTH · 1 meeting≈ 1.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

6 Oct 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 6th vs 2nd, 4.7L behind · OR 73 v 60 · race median 68 (today 75)

Read through a common rival

vs MR NOBLE (IRE) (read through EVENING BLUES, BYE LAW, KINNALARGY) ≈ -5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs RETURN OF THE GODS (IRE) (read through MASTER OF ENTROPY, GOLDWORK) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs FOREST PHOENIX (read through ILLY'S ROO, EMPRESS OLIVIA) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs KEEP AN EYE ON IT (read through SUPREME CLARETS, SPORTING LIGHT) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

5lb below his last winning mark (65 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, effort early in straight, not quicken”

#13 INVINCIBLE BOY (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 80 · Ethan Tindall / Richard & Peter Fahey

MARKET drifting 15 → 18 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−

67.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

13th on the figures, 21.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

67.3 · ranked #13 here · career best 84

Official mark (OR)

80 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.49)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.64% (one-paced late)

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 75 vs 80 last run (YORK · 27 Jun 26)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 6f · rated 541stClass 4 · 6f · rated 803rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 682ndClass 3 · 6f · rated 84

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Richard & Peter Fahey · 393 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At York—4/478.5%1.69

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 12-15—3/783.8%0.52

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Ethan Tindall · last 14 days: 1/13 · at York: A/E 1.89 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 0.43 (n48)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields14th of 15

-0.36 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 15

+0.12s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed14th of 15

98.6%

One-paced late

Stride length6th of 15

7.41 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26York6fGood48th8280True41.5 -1.2896.4+0.35

7 Apr 26Pontefract6fGd/Sft41st——True38.5 -0.0197.7+0.01

8 Nov 25Doncaster6fHeavy43rd——Slow early36.3 -0.1499.1+0.06

10 Oct 25York6fGood32nd——Slow early39.0 -0.01101.3+0.05

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.81slow2f+1.11par3f+1.13par4f+1.11slow5f+1.26very slow6f+1.96very slow

Timed runs 2025-10-10 to 2026-06-27. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

MILFORD GRANGE · 1 meeting≈ 22.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

7 Apr 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 1st vs 7th, 22L ahead

MR NOBLE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

27 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 8th vs 3rd, 7.35L behind · OR 82 v 80 · race median 80 (today 75)

BLEEP TEST · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

27 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 8th vs 11th, 4.5L ahead · OR 82 v 80 · race median 80 (today 75)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+5.7L adj, 3 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through EVENING BLUES, BYE LAW, KINNALARGY) ≈ +1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 16 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.89x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“chased leader, pushed along over 2f out, ran green approaching final 1f, challenged soon after, led final 100 yds, forged clear”

#14 FOREST PHOENIX HELD-UP

DRAW 15 · OR 68 · Amie Waugh / Tim Easterby

MARKET 230 · the market rates it a 0% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−

52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

14th on the figures, 37pts off the top, in form; solid late gains (7th of 15 on late speed here), saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

52.0 · ranked #14 here · career best 63

Official mark (OR)

68 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 101.84% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 7f198y · rated 5212thClass 4 · 5f · rated 401stClass 4 · 5f · rated 638thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 398thClass 4 · 7f · rated 43

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25

In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Amie Waugh · at York: A/E 0 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 0.69 (n68)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields12th of 15

-0.26 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph14th of 15

+0.29s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed7th of 15

101.8%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 15

7.50 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

10 Jul 26York7f192yGd/Frm48th7073True39.4 -0.1995.1+0.25

12 Jun 26York5fGood412th7270True41.9 -0.2698.3+0.34

30 May 26Catterick Bridge5fGd/Frm41st——True40.8 -0.84102.8+0.00

29 Apr 26Southwell6f16yStd48th——True39.0 -0.18106.9+0.35

18 Apr 26Thirsk7fGood48th——True39.2 -0.32106.4+0.25

8 Apr 26Catterick Bridge7fGood45th——True40.0 +0.26101.5+0.53

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.55par2f+0.56par3f+0.36fast4f+0.27fast5f+0.31par6f+0.47slow7f+1.00very slow1m+2.09very slow

Timed runs 2026-04-08 to 2026-07-10. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

ZARVALI (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

10 Jul 26 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 7th, 3L behind · OR 70 v 79 · race median 73 (today 75)

MILFORD GRANGE · 1 meeting≈ 5.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

10 Jul 26 · 7f192y · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 6th, 5.75L behind · OR 70 v 70 · race median 73 (today 75)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-3.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through ILLY'S ROO, EMPRESS OLIVIA) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs GUNALT WAVELENGTH (read through ONLY DREAM BIG, SIMBA'S PRIDE, EMPRESS OLIVIA) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs RAGING RAJ (IRE) (read through LUZON HEIGHTS, GET OUTTA HERE) ≈ -0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“prominent, pushed along, edged right over 2f out, weakened from 2f out”

#15 BLEEP TEST MID

DRAW 11 · OR 72 · David Allan / Tim Easterby

MARKET backed 70 → 55 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−

48 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

15th on the figures, 41pts off the top, backed since the morning; one-paced late — 9th of 15 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

48 · ranked #15 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

72 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.2)

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.12% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 23 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → YORK 2nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time tongue strap · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 5f176y · rated 4111thClass 4 · 6f · rated 354thClass 4 · 5f · rated 683rdClass 2 · 5f176y · rated 632ndClass 4 · 6f · rated 79

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tim Easterby · 2935 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At York4/1692.4%0.421/711.4%0.25

In fields of 12-15 ✦25/5674.4%0.66/1514.0%0.58

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 79 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

David Allan · last 14 days: 5/48 · at York: A/E 0.23 (n115) · with this yard: A/E 0.82 (n1592)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields15th of 15

-1.73 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 35.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph10th of 15

+0.15s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed9th of 15

100.1%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length9th of 15

7.35 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Carlisle5f182yGd/Frm48th7776True41.7 -0.1195.2+0.23

27 Jun 26York6fGood411th8080True33.1 -9.6894.2—

17 Jul 25Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm44th83—Slow early41.1 +0.33101.5+0.27

25 Jun 25Carlisle5f182ySoft23rd——Slow early38.5 +0.00104.3+0.21

22 Jun 25Pontefract6fGood42nd——Slow early37.5 -0.94104.0+0.00

13 Jun 25York5fGd/Frm22nd——Slow early42.6 +0.00101.5-0.10

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.47par2f+0.66par3f+0.83par4f+0.77slow5f+0.86slow6f+2.09very slow

Timed runs 2025-06-13 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 4 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

INVINCIBLE BOY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

27 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 11th vs 8th, 4.5L behind · OR 80 v 82 · race median 80 (today 75)

MR NOBLE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 7.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

27 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 11th vs 3rd, 11.85L behind · OR 80 v 80 · race median 80 (today 75)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-4.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs ZARVALI (IRE) (read through BYE LAW, ORMOLULU) ≈ -1.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DACRES CROSS (IRE) (read through EVENING BLUES, BYE LAW, KINNALARGY, ROGUE SUPREMACY) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, under pressure 2f out, left behind approaching final 1f”